Piedmont Crescent Capital

06/29/2025

Markets are rising, but what’s really happening underneath the surface?

This week’s View from the Piedmont dives into:
– Slowing U.S. consumer demand and rising jobless claims
– A historic U.S.-Israel operation that neutralized Iran’s nuclear threat
– NATO’s new 5% GDP defense pledge
– A limited but impactful U.S.–China trade deal, helping EV and tech supply chains
– The Fed’s wait-and-see stance amid disinflation and policy noise

Trump’s influence is reshaping diplomacy, trade, and legislation — but ex*****on in the second half of 2025 will be the true test.

🇺🇸 From tariffs to Tehran, this week’s report connects the dots.
🔗 Read & share:

Highlights of the Week The U.S. economy shows signs of slowing beneath the surface: consumer spending, housing, and employment have softened, while a spike in aircraft orders drove a jump in durable goods orders. Consumer Sentiment rebounded on easing tariff fears and market gains, while Consumer Co...

02/21/2025

The world is adjusting to ‘Trump time’—somewhere between Warp Speed and Ludicrous Speed. The Trump Administration’s rapid rollout of tariffs, trade deals, and border security has heightened uncertainty and shaken the financial markets. Inflation, which was already proving stubborn, will likely run between 0.4-0.5 percentage points higher in 2025 due to higher tariffs. We have trimmed our U.S. growth forecast to 2% for the first half of this year, reflecting uneven job growth—with healthcare, social services, leisure, and government carrying the load—and weakening consumer sentiment, especially among middle- and lower-income households feeling squeezed.

But it’s not all turbulence. U.S. manufacturing should see modest gains this year, and there’s a better-than-even chance of a Ukraine ceasefire by spring, which might cool inflation and give Europe’s economy a lift. How will this whirlwind shape 2025? Our latest CAVU Compass dives into the data—tariffs, Fed moves, trade wins, and more. Check it out here: https://piedmontcrescentcapital.com/the-economy-is.../

10/30/2024

I usually keep business updates off Facebook, but here’s a look at the Q3 GDP report my firm published this morning, with some important insights on where we stand economically.

The U.S. economy grew at a solid 2.8% annualized rate in Q3, yet many consumers are still feeling the pinch of inflation fatigue. Overall prices remain 20% higher than they were pre-pandemic, with grocery prices up 25% and rent climbing by 30%. Wages have not kept pace with these increases, leading to a significant drop in the share of the population that can afford new homes or vehicles. This gap between rising costs and stagnant wages is fueling frustration as we head into the election.

Take a look at the full report for a deeper dive into the data and visit our website www.piedmontcrescentcapital.com

https://piedmontcrescentcapital.com/inflation-fatigue-fails-to-dampen-q3-gdp-growth/

Another Solid Quarter for Economic Growth Real GDP grew at a 2.8% annual rate in Q3, a slight deceleration from the 3.0% pace in the prior quarter. The underlying details were strong, while inflation came in slightly lower than market expectations. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, wh...

09/27/2024

🏈 Exciting Weekend Ahead: Georgia vs. Alabama! 🏈
One of the things that I have taken up in my semi-retirement is writing a weekly commentary on college football and the local economy. Please take a look at our preview of the Georgia-Alabama game.

This Saturday, we have a highly anticipated top-five matchup as Georgia heads to Tuscaloosa to face Alabama! With the College Football Playoff expanding to 12 teams, the stakes have changed a bit. While the loser will likely still be in the hunt for a playoff spot and an SEC Championship berth, winning this game is especially crucial for Georgia, given how tough it is to play on the road in the SEC.

Georgia is coming in a little banged up, missing key transfer wide receiver London Humphreys and dealing with injuries to quarterback Carson Beck and All-American guard Nate Ratledge. On the other hand, Alabama looks to be at full strength, which could give them an edge.

There’s been a lot of chatter about this game possibly previewing future SEC Championship and playoff showdowns. The winner will definitely be in the driver’s seat for the SEC Championship, while the loser will need to be cautious moving forward. Georgia is favored by 2.5 points, but they’ll need to contain Alabama’s strong rushing attack, led by dual-threat QB Jalen Milroe.

As always, I love looking beyond the field to see what drives the economies of Georgia and Alabama. This week, I’m also diving into the Athens music scene! If you’re interested, check out my report and feel free to share it with anyone who might enjoy it!

07/11/2023

I have some exciting news to share. Piedmont Crescent Capital is partnering with CAVU Securities to provide economic content to their clients and teammates, I am so excited about this partnership.

CAVU is a wonderful organization and I am so excited to be partnering with them. What makes me even more excited, however, is to partner with a leading securities firm that does so much good work for veterans and the community at large. Please take a few minutes to look at CAVU's Annual Impact Report. It is the first thing you will see at the top of their website.

CAVU has formed a strategic partnership with veteran economist Mark Vitner of Piedmont Crescent Capital, an independent economic consulting firm.