05/19/2026
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A frequently asked question in recent weeks is whether the market is simply ignoring the risks stemming from the current geopolitical conflict, especially given the spike in oil prices that has pushed inflation pressures higher. Our answer is yes—but only at the index level.
LAST WEEK
🔷 indicates a steady but cautious economic environment for small business owners. The optimism index held at 95.9, a slight stabilization from the previous month’s 95.8
🔷 A net negative 8% of small business owners reported higher nominal , and only 3% expected higher sales in the upcoming quarter—the lowest reading in 12 months
🔷 The experienced a slight cooling, falling to 100.4 from 101.6
🔷 Actual and planned price increases rose in April; A net 30% of owners raised their average selling prices, and 27% plan to implement increases in the next three months
🔷 Overall rose 0.6% month-over-month, a slight deceleration from the previous month’s 0.9% increase, which pushed the year-over-year rate to 3.8%, up from 3.3%
🔷 rose 0.4%, slightly above the 0.3% estimate, this pushed the year-over-year core rate to 2.8% from 2.6%, this pushed the year-over-year core rate to 2.8% from 2.6%
🔷 increased 0.4% for the month (1.1% year-over-year), while services rose 0.5% (3.3% year-over-year)
🔷 data reveals a slight uptick in market activity, with sales rising 0.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.05 million, up from 4.01 million in the previous month; also saw a modest increase, climbing to 1.47 million from 1.39 million
THIS WEEK
WEDNESDAY: Federal Open Market Committee minutes from the April 28–29 meeting
THURSDAY: S&P Global will release its Flash U.S. PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) data for May; U.S. Census Bureau will publish U.S. housing starts and building permits data for April
FRIDAY: The University of Michigan will release the final results for its May Surveys of Consumers
Read it here: http://spr.ly/6186BBAJjq