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https://www.barrettfinancial.com/jvavro

Jill Vavro, NMLS #151393, 2701 East Insight Way, Suite 150 Chandler, AZ, United States, Chandler, AZ (2026)

09/08/2026

🏡 WEEKLY MARKET UPDATE | Tuesday, September 8

I hope everyone had a nice long Labor Day weekend! 🇺🇸

Here’s what’s happening with mortgage rates as we head into the second week of September:

📈 Rates are starting the week slightly higher, but they remain relatively close to last week’s levels. The big story is that the August jobs report came in much stronger than expected, which puts additional pressure on mortgage rates.

🔑 WHAT REALTORS NEED TO KNOW

Strong jobs = pressure on rates

The August employment report was significantly stronger than expected:

• Nonfarm payrolls increased 162,000, versus expectations of just 55,000
• Private payrolls increased 127,000, versus expectations of 45,000
• Unemployment held steady at 4.1%
• Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year

The labor market is showing more resilience than many expected, which makes it harder for the Fed to justify cutting rates and keeps upward pressure on mortgage rates.

🏠 The housing market is still showing signs of demand

Mortgage applications increased 0.8% last week, with purchase applications up 2%. That’s encouraging, especially considering where rates are currently sitting.

At the same time, housing supply continues to improve in many markets, giving buyers more opportunities and potentially more negotiating leverage than they had during the ultra-competitive years.

📊 THIS WEEK COULD BE IMPORTANT

We have two major inflation reports coming this week:

Thursday: Producer Price Index (PPI)
Friday: Consumer Price Index (CPI)

These numbers will be closely watched because they could influence expectations for the Fed’s upcoming meeting.

If inflation comes in hotter than expected, we could see additional pressure on mortgage rates. If we get a meaningful downside surprise, we could see some relief.

🌎 Oil prices are another wildcard

Brent crude is approaching $100/barrel, and continued geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could push energy prices higher. Higher oil prices can create additional inflation concerns, which is not what the mortgage bond market wants to see right now.

🔒 MY TAKE

For buyers who are under contract or planning to close in the next few weeks, I'm firmly in the "lock 'em" camp.

There are simply more potential catalysts for rates to move higher than lower right now.

That doesn't mean rates are going to suddenly skyrocket. It means that, based on the current data, waiting for a meaningful improvement in rates carries more risk than it did a couple of weeks ago.

And remember...

The rate today isn't necessarily the rate you keep forever. The strategy is to get your buyer into the right home with the right payment today, then look for opportunities to improve that payment down the road.

If you have a buyer sitting on the fence because they're waiting for rates to drop, let's run the numbers. Sometimes the opportunity is in the purchase price, seller concessions, a temporary buydown, or a different loan structure rather than simply waiting for the headline rate to fall.

📲 If you have a buyer who wants to know what today's market actually looks like for their specific situation, send them my way. I'm happy to run the numbers and give them a real strategy rather than just another rate quote.

08/31/2026

📈 MORTGAGE MARKET UPDATE | Rates Under Pressure

Good morning, Realtors! Here’s your weekly mortgage market update as we head into the final days of August.

Unfortunately, the mortgage market took a step backward last week. Mortgage rates moved higher, and the short-term outlook has become more challenging as the bond market reacts to rising oil prices, renewed geopolitical concerns, and a more hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve.

Here are the biggest things I’m watching:

🏠 Housing prices remain positive, but appreciation is slowing.
The FHFA index was flat in June, with annual appreciation at 2.3%. The Case-Shiller 20-city index showed a little more strength, with prices up 2.1% year-over-year. Translation: we're not seeing a major decline in home values, but price appreciation is much more moderate than it was a few years ago.

📉 New home sales dropped 10.5% in July, falling to a 607,000 annualized pace. Higher rates and affordability are still creating challenges for buyers.

💼 The labor market remains surprisingly resilient.
Initial jobless claims fell to 203,000 and continuing claims dropped to 1.778 million. That's important because a stronger labor market gives the Fed less reason to cut rates.

📊 Economic growth is slowing.
Q2 GDP was revised to a 1.5% annualized pace, down from 2.1% in Q1. Personal income and consumer spending both increased in July, while core PCE inflation remained at 3.3% year-over-year.

📉 Mortgage applications slipped another 1%.
Purchase applications were down 0.3% and refinances fell 2%. Buyers are still in the market, but affordability continues to be a major factor.

🔑 THE BIG STORY FOR RATES

The biggest change right now is the market's perception of the Fed.

After Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's comments at Jackson Hole, the market is increasingly pricing in the possibility of additional Fed rate hikes. At the same time, oil prices are moving higher because of renewed Middle East tensions.

That combination is not friendly to mortgage rates.

The 10-year Treasury is currently around 4.76%, its highest level of the year, while mortgage bonds have also weakened significantly.

🎯 MY TAKE FOR REALTORS

For the past few weeks, I've been comfortable cautiously floating loans and looking for opportunities to improve pricing.

That has changed.

For buyers who are under contract and closing in the next couple of weeks, I'm firmly in the "protect the loan" camp right now. There isn't a clear catalyst on the horizon that makes me confident rates will improve significantly in the short term.

Could rates come back down? Absolutely.

But right now, the risk/reward doesn't favor betting on it.

And here's the conversation I'd encourage you to have with buyers:

Don't wait for the perfect rate. Buy the right house at the right price, structure the loan correctly, and remember that you can always refinance if the market gives us a better opportunity later.

The buyer who waits six months hoping rates drop could potentially face a different home price, less negotiating power, or lose the house they really wanted.

The market doesn't require buyers to love today's rate. It requires the payment and overall deal to make sense.

If you have a buyer who is stuck on the sidelines because of rates, send them my way. I'll run the numbers, show them the options, and help them determine whether waiting actually makes financial sense.

🏡 Realtors, let's get your buyers positioned to win in this market.

Have a great week!

08/24/2026

📈 Mortgage Market Update: Rates Finally Stabilize, But Volatility Is Back

Good morning, Realtors! 👋

Mortgage rates moved slightly lower last week, but this week is starting with a very different tone. After a few weeks of relative stability, rising oil prices and renewed concerns surrounding the Iran conflict have pushed bond yields higher and put upward pressure on mortgage rates.

Here’s what I’m watching:

🏠 Housing demand is showing signs of life.
Mortgage applications increased 3.6%, with purchase applications up 3% and refinances up 5%. That tells me buyers are still active, even with rates where they are.

📉 Existing home sales slipped 1.7% in July, but the 4.06 million annualized pace was still better than expected.

📊 Inflation came in largely as expected. CPI increased 0.1% monthly and 3.4% annually, while core inflation eased slightly to 2.5% year-over-year. That is encouraging, but not enough by itself to push rates substantially lower.

💼 The labor market remains relatively resilient. Continuing claims fell to 1.777 million, while initial claims rose modestly to 209,000.

🛍️ Consumer spending showed some weakness. Retail sales fell 0.6% in July, while consumer sentiment also declined in August.

🔑 What does this mean for buyers?

The big story right now is oil and geopolitical risk.

Mortgage bonds have been under pressure as oil prices climb, and that has caused a meaningful shift in the short-term rate outlook. The 10-year Treasury is now around 4.73%, its highest level in roughly a year, and mortgage bonds are also weakening.

My take: This is a market where I would be more focused on protecting a good rate than trying to perfectly time the bottom.

For buyers who are ready to move forward, I wouldn't let the fear of "what if rates come down?" keep them from making a move that works today. If rates improve later, there may be opportunities to refinance. But you can't refinance a loan you never closed.

For loans closing in the next 30-60 days, I'm leaning toward locking rather than gambling on a major improvement. The next few weeks could bring more volatility, especially if oil prices continue climbing or tensions escalate.

The good news? We're still talking about rates in the mid-6% range, not a runaway market. And if the geopolitical situation improves, we could see some of this pressure reverse.

As always, if you have a buyer who is sitting on the fence because of rates, send them my way. Let's look at the actual payment, the options available today, and determine whether waiting really makes sense for their situation.

📲 Realtors, I'm always happy to run a quick scenario for your buyers or help you structure an offer around today's market.

Let's have a great week! 🏡

08/18/2026

📈 Mortgage Market Update: Rates Finally Stabilize, But Volatility Is Back
Good morning, Realtors! 👋
Mortgage rates moved slightly lower last week, but this week is starting with a very different tone. After a few weeks of relative stability, rising oil prices and renewed concerns surrounding the Iran conflict have pushed bond yields higher and put upward pressure on mortgage rates.
Here’s what I’m watching:
🏠 Housing demand is showing signs of life.
Mortgage applications increased 3.6%, with purchase applications up 3% and refinances up 5%. That tells me buyers are still active, even with rates where they are.
📉 Existing home sales slipped 1.7% in July, but the 4.06 million annualized pace was still better than expected.
📊 Inflation came in largely as expected. CPI increased 0.1% monthly and 3.4% annually, while core inflation eased slightly to 2.5% year-over-year. That is encouraging, but not enough by itself to push rates substantially lower.
💼 The labor market remains relatively resilient. Continuing claims fell to 1.777 million, while initial claims rose modestly to 209,000.
🛍️ Consumer spending showed some weakness. Retail sales fell 0.6% in July, while consumer sentiment also declined in August.
🔑 What does this mean for buyers?
The big story right now is oil and geopolitical risk.
Mortgage bonds have been under pressure as oil prices climb, and that has caused a meaningful shift in the short-term rate outlook. The 10-year Treasury is now around 4.73%, its highest level in roughly a year, and mortgage bonds are also weakening.
My take: This is a market where I would be more focused on protecting a good rate than trying to perfectly time the bottom.
For buyers who are ready to move forward, I wouldn't let the fear of "what if rates come down?" keep them from making a move that works today. If rates improve later, there may be opportunities to refinance. But you can't refinance a loan you never closed.
For loans closing in the next 30-60 days, I'm leaning toward locking rather than gambling on a major improvement. The next few weeks could bring more volatility, especially if oil prices continue climbing or tensions escalate.
The good news? We're still talking about rates in the high-6% to low 7% range, not a runaway market. And if the geopolitical situation improves, we could see some of this pressure reverse.
As always, if you have a buyer who is sitting on the fence because of rates, send them my way. Let's look at the actual payment, the options available today, and determine whether waiting really makes sense for their situation.
📲 Realtors, I'm always happy to run a quick scenario for your buyers or help you structure an offer around today's market.
Let's have a great week! 🏡

07/27/2026

🏡 Weekly Mortgage & Housing Market Update 🏡

Happy Monday, everyone! I hope you all had a fantastic weekend.

Last week was a reminder of just how quickly global events can impact mortgage rates. Mortgage rates climbed to their highest levels in over a year, largely driven by higher oil prices and uncertainty surrounding the conflict in the Middle East. The good news? As tensions eased over the weekend, mortgage pricing has already begun improving to start this week.

Here's what happened:

📈 Mortgage Rates Reacted to Global Events
Mortgage rates increased sharply last week as rising oil prices fueled inflation concerns and pushed bond yields higher. Fortunately, with military activity slowing and diplomatic talks resuming, oil prices have pulled back and mortgage rates are showing signs of improving.

🏡 Buyers Are Still Active
Despite higher rates, mortgage applications increased 1.9%, led by a 5.5% jump in purchase applications. Buyers continue to enter the market, proving that life events and housing needs often outweigh waiting for the "perfect" interest rate.

💼 The Labor Market Remains Strong
Jobless claims came in much better than expected, with initial claims falling to 187,000, another sign that the labor market remains healthy. A strong employment picture continues to support overall housing demand.

🏗️ Builders Continue Adding Inventory
Building permits were revised slightly higher than expected. While construction activity has moderated from earlier highs, builders are still working to bring much-needed inventory to the market.

👀 What I'm Watching This Week

The biggest event this week is the Federal Reserve meeting. While the Fed is not expected to raise rates this meeting, everyone will be listening closely to Chairman Kevin Warsh's comments for clues about what may happen later this year.

Markets will also continue watching developments in the Middle East. If tensions remain contained and oil prices continue to ease, mortgage rates could continue to improve. If geopolitical tensions escalate again, expect renewed pressure on rates.

My Take

While headlines have focused on rising rates, one number stood out to me last week: purchase applications increased 5.5%.

That tells me serious buyers are still making moves. They understand that waiting indefinitely for lower rates could mean missing out on the right home, especially as inventory continues to improve in many markets.

For Realtors, this is a great opportunity to remind buyers that they can refinance a rate in the future, but they can't go back and buy the home they passed on.

If you have buyers who are unsure whether now is the right time, let's connect. I'd be happy to review financing options, payment scenarios, and strategies to help them move forward with confidence.

Have a great week, everyone! 🏡📈

07/20/2026

🏡 Weekly Mortgage & Housing Market Update 🏡

Happy Monday, everyone! I hope you're off to a great start to the week.

Last week brought some encouraging news for mortgage rates. Thanks to cooler-than-expected inflation data, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate moved lower to approximately 6.63%, reaching some of the best pricing we've seen in several weeks. While rates remain elevated compared to historical lows, this was certainly a step in the right direction.

Here's what happened last week:

📉 Inflation Cooled More Than Expected
This was the biggest story of the week. Both headline and core inflation came in lower than economists expected, which helped improve mortgage pricing. Lower inflation gives the bond market confidence that inflationary pressures may be easing, and that's typically good news for mortgage rates.

🏡 Purchase Activity Slowed
Mortgage applications declined 2.7%, driven by a 7% drop in purchase applications. Refinance activity actually increased 4%, showing that some homeowners are already taking advantage of recent improvements in pricing.

🏠 Housing Data Was Mixed
Pending home sales fell 5.4%, suggesting buyers are still feeling the effects of affordability challenges.

On the positive side, housing starts surged 19%, a strong sign that builders continue to add much-needed inventory despite softer builder confidence and fewer building permits.

💼 The Labor Market Remains Strong
Jobless claims improved again last week, with both initial and continuing claims declining. A resilient job market continues to support consumer confidence and keeps many potential buyers in a position to purchase.

🛍️ Consumers Are Still Spending
Retail sales increased modestly in June, reinforcing that the economy remains on solid footing even as consumers become a little more selective with their spending.

👀 What I'm Watching This Week

This week's economic calendar is fairly quiet, so mortgage rates will likely be influenced more by geopolitical headlines and energy prices than economic reports.

The next major event will be the Federal Reserve meeting next week. While no rate change is expected, investors will be paying close attention to the Fed's comments about inflation and the economy. Those comments could influence mortgage pricing heading into August.

My Take

Even though mortgage rates improved last week, we're still operating in a market where small changes happen quickly. Buyers who have been waiting for rates to improve may find this to be a good opportunity to revisit their purchasing power.

Inventory continues to improve in many markets, and buyers have more choices than they did a year ago. For Realtors, this remains a market where preparation, education, and strong financing strategies can make all the difference.

If you have buyers wondering whether now is the right time to move forward, I'd be happy to run updated payment scenarios and discuss financing options.

Have an amazing week, everyone! 🏡📈

07/13/2026

🏡 Weekly Mortgage & Housing Market Update
Happy Monday, everyone! I hope you're all having a great week.

Mortgage rates were relatively unchanged last week, with the average 30-year fixed rate finishing around 6.64%. While rates continue to move within a fairly narrow range, geopolitical tensions and upcoming inflation data could create some short-term volatility.

Here are this week's highlights:

📉 Mortgage Applications Declined
Overall mortgage applications slipped 2.2%, with purchase applications down 1% and refinance activity down 4%. Even with the slight slowdown, buyer demand continues to hold up better than many expected considering today's rate environment.

🏡 Existing Home Sales Softened
Existing home sales came in at an annual pace of 4.09 million, down 2.4% from May and slightly below expectations. Affordability remains a challenge, but well-priced homes continue to attract motivated buyers.

💼 Labor Market Remains Resilient
The employment picture continues to support the economy. Initial jobless claims remained low at 215,000, while continuing claims also came in better than expected. A healthy labor market continues to give buyers confidence, even as higher rates impact affordability.

💳 Consumers Pulled Back on Borrowing
Consumer credit unexpectedly declined in May, suggesting households may be becoming a bit more cautious with borrowing after several months of strong spending.

📈 What I'm Watching This Week
This week's biggest event is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report. Inflation data will likely have a much bigger impact on mortgage rates than anything else on the calendar.

At the same time, markets are continuing to monitor developments in the Middle East. Renewed tensions involving Iran and uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil prices higher, which can add inflationary pressure and make it more difficult for mortgage rates to improve.

My Take

We're still in a market where preparation wins.

Inventory is improving compared to last year, buyers are adjusting to today's rates, and opportunities continue to exist for those who are properly qualified and working with knowledgeable professionals. Waiting for the "perfect" interest rate may mean missing the right home.

If you have buyers sitting on the fence, let's review their options together. There are still plenty of financing strategies available to help make today's market work.

As always, if you have a client who wants to discuss financing scenarios, payment options, or buying power, I'm always happy to help.

Have a fantastic week, everyone! 🏡

07/07/2026

Happy World Chocolate Day!
What is your favorite chocolate candy?

07/06/2026

🇺🇸 Hope everyone had a fantastic Fourth of July weekend! I hope you had the chance to relax, spend time with family and friends, and recharge for what should be another busy summer selling season.

🏡 Weekly Mortgage & Housing Market Update

Mortgage rates moved slightly higher last week, but the good news is that they've continued to stay within the same narrow range we've been seeing for the past month. While rates may fluctuate a little from day to day, we're not seeing the large swings that dominated the market earlier this year.

Here's what happened last week:

📊 Housing Market Snapshot

🏠 Home prices continue to hold up.

April's home price reports painted a mixed picture, but the overall message remains the same: home values continue to appreciate, just at a healthier and more sustainable pace.

• The FHFA Home Price Index dipped 0.1% month over month.
• The Case-Shiller 20-City Index still showed 1.1% annual appreciation, outperforming expectations.

This is good news for homeowners while also creating a more balanced market for buyers.

💼 The Labor Market Remains Healthy

Employment continues to be one of the biggest factors influencing mortgage rates.

Last week we saw:

✔ Job openings increase more than expected.

✔ Initial unemployment claims decline.

✔ Continuing unemployment claims rise slightly.

✔ ADP payroll growth come in a little softer than forecast.

Overall, the labor market continues to show resilience, which is one reason the Federal Reserve is likely to remain patient before making any significant policy changes.

🏦 Mortgage Demand Holding Steady

Mortgage applications were essentially unchanged last week.

• Purchase applications increased 0.5%.
• Refinance applications declined 0.7%.

Even with today's interest rates, buyers continue to stay in the market, especially as inventory improves and more opportunities become available.

📉 What I'm Watching

This week should be relatively quiet from an economic standpoint.

The biggest market-moving report on the horizon is next week's CPI inflation report, which could have a larger impact on mortgage pricing than anything happening this week.

For now, mortgage rates are expected to remain in the same general range with only modest day-to-day movement.

💡 Realtor Takeaway

The market continues to normalize.

✔ Home values remain strong.

✔ Inventory has improved.

✔ Buyers are adjusting to today's rates.

✔ Mortgage rates have been relatively stable for several weeks.

This is a great opportunity to reconnect with buyers who may have paused their search earlier this year. Many are realizing that waiting for dramatically lower interest rates may not be the best strategy, especially as competition could increase if rates eventually decline.

As always, if you'd like updated payment scenarios, creative financing options, or need a fast pre-approval for one of your clients, I'm always happy to help.

07/04/2026

Happy Independence Day!

Jill Vavro, NMLS #151393

09/08/2026

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