Jill Vavro, NMLS #151393

11/02/2026

🌧️ WEEKLY MORTGAGE & HOUSING MARKET UPDATE | NOVEMBER 2, 2026

Happy Monday, Realtor partners! I hope everyone had a great Halloween weekend, despite the rain! 🌧️🎃 Hopefully, everyone still managed to get out, enjoy the festivities, and collect some candy. Now we're officially heading into the holiday season, and believe it or not, Thanksgiving is just around the corner!

We also have some encouraging news on the mortgage front. Mortgage rates moved lower last week, and we're starting this week with some additional improvement. The 10-year Treasury yield has dropped back below 5%, sitting around 4.88% this morning.

After several challenging weeks, it's nice to finally have some positive momentum!

📉 MORTGAGE RATE UPDATE

Mortgage bonds finished last week slightly stronger, and today's market is building on those gains.

A significant drop in oil prices has helped ease some inflation concerns and put downward pressure on Treasury yields. That's generally positive for mortgage rates.

The 10-year Treasury yield is now around 4.88%, down from the 5% range we've been watching.

The encouraging part is that we're seeing rates pull back from the highs reached a few weeks ago. There is still room for improvement, although the next couple of weeks could bring plenty of volatility.

🏠 WHAT'S HAPPENING IN THE HOUSING MARKET?

Last week's economic reports gave us a mixed picture of the economy and housing market.

• Home prices continue to appreciate. The FHFA index showed prices increased 0.3% in August and 2.4% year-over-year. The Case-Shiller 20-City Index also increased 2.7% annually.

• New home sales slipped slightly. September sales declined 0.6% to an annualized pace of 676,000, although that was still above expectations.

• Mortgage applications rebounded. Total applications increased 3.4%, with purchase applications up 3.8% and refinance applications up 2.7%. That's a welcome change after two consecutive weeks of declines.

• Builder activity remains challenging. Building permits declined 0.4%, while housing market sentiment and new construction continue to reflect affordability concerns.

• Consumer confidence improved significantly. The October reading jumped to 91.7, well above expectations and September's reading of 84.2.

Overall, home prices remain resilient, and we're seeing some improvement in mortgage activity. That's encouraging as we head into the final stretch of the year.

📊 THE ECONOMY & THE FED

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady at 4.00% at last week's meeting, as expected.

Meanwhile, third-quarter GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.4%, showing the economy continues to expand at a healthy pace.

Core PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, increased to 3.1% annually from 3.0%. That's a reminder that inflation hasn't completely gone away.

Employment data was mixed, with weekly private payroll growth slowing to 16,800. However, both initial and continuing jobless claims declined, suggesting the labor market remains relatively resilient.

🔥 WHAT I'M WATCHING THIS WEEK

We have another important week ahead, particularly with employment data, the midterm elections, and ongoing geopolitical developments.

Oil prices will also be worth watching. Lower oil prices have helped mortgage rates recently, but any reversal could put pressure back on the bond market.

Next week brings another round of inflation data, which could have a significant impact on where rates head next.

🔒 MY RATE OUTLOOK

NEXT 15 DAYS: CAUTIOUSLY FLOAT

For buyers closing in the next two weeks, there is an opportunity to cautiously float if they're comfortable with some risk. We've seen rates improve from their recent highs, and there is potential for additional improvement. However, with so much happening over the next couple of weeks, borrowers should be prepared to lock if the market turns.

15–30 DAYS: CAUTIOUSLY FLOAT

For closings later in November, I see some potential for rates to improve further. These loans have a little more time to work through the upcoming economic reports and market events. For now, I'd keep the door open for additional improvement while monitoring the market closely.

30+ DAYS: CAUTIOUSLY FLOAT

For longer-term closings, there is a possibility we could see rates improve by as much as a quarter point from current levels. That's an opportunity, not a guarantee. The December Fed meeting and upcoming economic data will be important factors.

As always, these are market outlooks, not guarantees. The right lock strategy depends on the borrower's closing timeline and comfort with risk.

🏡 REALTOR PARTNERS: LET'S FINISH THE YEAR STRONG!

We're entering the holiday season, and while many buyers assume the market slows down this time of year, there are still plenty of opportunities for motivated buyers and sellers.

In fact, fewer competing buyers during the holidays can sometimes create opportunities that aren't available during the busier spring and summer markets.

If you have buyers waiting for rates to improve, now is a great time to revisit the numbers. We can explore seller concessions, temporary or permanent rate buydowns, and different financing options to help make the payment more affordable.

And if you have a buyer already under contract, let's stay on top of the market and make sure we're making the right lock decision.

My goal is to help you keep transactions moving, get your buyers into homes, and finish 2026 on a high note!

Have a great week, everyone! 🏡🤝

10/31/2026

🎃👻 Happy Halloween from Barrett Financial Group! 🦇🕸️

Wishing everyone a spooktacular Halloween filled with fun, treats, and plenty of sweet memories! 🍬🍫 Whether you're out trick-or-treating with the family, enjoying a Halloween party, or handing out candy to the neighborhood ghosts and goblins, we hope you have a safe and happy Halloween! 🧡

Have a fang-tastic Halloween! 🎃🏡

10/30/2026

Don't get spooked by the mortgage process. Call me today to see how I can help lower you payment.

10/27/2026

The Phoenix and Tucson housing markets are shifting toward buyers. 🏡 Worth a read for anyone working with buyers or sellers right now. It’s a good reminder that understanding current market conditions is key to helping our clients make informed decisions.

https://azbigmedia.com/real-estate/phoenix-tucson-housing-markets-shift-toward-buyers/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAcGRvZgVzcnRjBmFwcF9pZBAyMjIwMzkxNzg4MjAwODkyAAEelo7QF0dSNHr9FSI9nHm0b0wt3XPKsfSklv4lYssAX9vo0BLFedk4dE2jMCs_aem_GcegveOJkayVFsaDMPLuWg

Arizona homebuyers gain negotiating power as the housing market shifts, but rising mortgage rates are making it harder to afford a home.

10/27/2026

Treat yourself to the home of your dreams without the nightmare of high rates. Give me a call to learn about refinancing.

10/26/2026

📊 WEEKLY MORTGAGE & HOUSING MARKET UPDATE | OCTOBER 26, 2026

Happy Monday, Realtor partners! We have some encouraging news to start the week: mortgage rates dipped to their lowest levels since September 23rd last Thursday. We gave back a little ground on Friday, but pricing remains better than it was a couple of weeks ago.

The big question now is whether rates can continue improving or if we've reached a short-term ceiling. My advice? Enjoy the improvement, but keep that lock button handy!

📉 MORTGAGE RATE UPDATE

The 10-year Treasury yield closed Friday at 5.00% and has dipped to approximately 4.97% this morning. Mortgage bonds are also starting the week slightly higher.

That's positive, but several factors could put pressure on rates again, including the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, next week's employment data, inflation reports, and geopolitical uncertainty.

The bottom line: We've seen some welcome relief, but I wouldn't count on another big drop just yet.

🏠 HOUSING MARKET: SOME MIXED SIGNALS

Last week's housing data showed that affordability continues to challenge buyers.

• Pending home sales plunged 7.3% in September, far worse than the expected 0.7% decline. That's a significant warning sign for near-term housing activity.

• Mortgage applications fell 5.3% for the week ending October 16. Purchase applications dropped approximately 7.3%, while refinance applications declined 2.0%.

• Housing starts declined 5.2% in September to an annualized rate of 1.221 million homes.

• Builder confidence slipped to 29 in October, down from 32 in September, reflecting continued challenges in the new-home market.

• Consumer sentiment edged lower to 48.0, although it came in above expectations.

Employment data was mixed, with weekly private payroll growth slowing to 18,500. Initial jobless claims declined, but continuing claims increased.

The takeaway? Buyers are still navigating affordability challenges, and the latest data suggests housing demand remains fragile.

🔥 WHAT I'M WATCHING THIS WEEK

The Federal Reserve meeting is the major event on the calendar. Markets will be watching closely for clues about the direction of monetary policy.

Next week brings additional labor market data, followed by more inflation reports in November. These releases could create significant movement in mortgage rates.

Oil prices and geopolitical developments could also influence the bond market.

Remember, mortgage rates don't move in lockstep with the Fed's decisions. Inflation expectations, Treasury yields, and investor sentiment all play a role.

🔒 MY RATE OUTLOOK

NEXT 15 DAYS: LOCK 'EM

For buyers closing in the next two weeks, I favor locking. We've seen some attractive improvements in pricing, and I believe rates are more likely to creep higher than deliver another significant decline. The Fed meeting and upcoming employment data add uncertainty.

15–30 DAYS: LOCK 'EM

For closings in the first half of November, I'd also lean toward locking. There's still time for market conditions to change, but between the Fed, employment and inflation reports, and geopolitical risks, I wouldn't gamble on rates improving further.

30+ DAYS: CAUTIOUSLY FLOAT

For buyers closing more than a month out, there's more room to monitor the market. Floating may make sense depending on the borrower's timeline and risk tolerance, but loans approaching their closing dates deserve extra attention.

These are market-based outlooks, not guarantees. Each borrower's situation and closing timeline should guide the final lock decision.

🤝 REALTOR PARTNERS: LET'S TURN CHALLENGES INTO OPPORTUNITIES!

When buyers see headlines about mortgage rates, it's easy for them to put their plans on hold. But waiting for the perfect rate can mean missing the right home.

Let's focus on what we can control:

✅ Explore seller concessions to help reduce upfront costs.

✅ Consider temporary or permanent rate buydowns to improve monthly payments.

✅ Structure the financing around the buyer's goals and budget.

✅ Review lock strategies carefully so buyers aren't taking unnecessary risks as closing approaches.

If you have a buyer who's hesitant because of rates, or a client who needs help making the numbers work, reach out. I'm happy to run payment scenarios, review options, and help you find a strategy that makes sense.

The goal isn't to predict the market perfectly. It's to help your buyers make smart decisions and get into the right home.

Have a great week, everyone! Let's get some buyers into homes! 🏡🤝

10/21/2026

Does a change of season mean a change of address, too? Message me for all your home loan options.

10/19/2026

📊 WEEKLY MORTGAGE & HOUSING MARKET UPDATE | OCTOBER 19, 2026

Mortgage rates improved slightly last week, continuing the recovery we've seen since rates hit their worst levels earlier this month. But there are growing signs that the rally may be running out of steam.

My advice to buyers and my Realtor partners: Take advantage of the improvement we've seen, but don't count on rates getting significantly better from here.

📉 MORTGAGE RATE UPDATE

Mortgage bonds have lost some ground since last Thursday, and the 10-year Treasury yield has started moving higher again. As of Monday morning, the 10-year yield is around 5.10%.

The good news? Mortgage pricing has improved meaningfully over the past couple of weeks.

The caution? We may have already seen the best rates from this recent rally. I wouldn't get too aggressive trying to squeeze out another small improvement, especially when a buyer has a closing date approaching.

📊 WHAT THE ECONOMIC DATA IS TELLING US

Here's what stood out from last week's reports:

• Inflation remains a concern. September CPI increased 0.6% month-over-month, while annual inflation rose to 3.7%. Core CPI increased 0.3% for the month, slightly above expectations.

• Consumer spending remains strong. Retail sales rose 0.8% in September, beating expectations of 0.3%. Strong spending can make it harder for inflation to cool.

• Existing home sales improved. Sales increased 1.5% in September to an annualized pace of 3.99 million homes, reversing the previous month's decline.

• Mortgage applications slipped again. Total applications fell 2.7%, with purchase applications down 4.0% and refinance applications down 0.4%.

• Employment remains mixed. Weekly ADP private payroll growth increased to 24,800, while initial jobless claims edged up slightly and continuing claims declined.

The takeaway: The housing market is showing some resilience, but affordability remains a challenge. Inflation and consumer spending are also reasons to be cautious about expecting mortgage rates to fall much further.

🔥 WHAT I'M WATCHING THIS WEEK

The next major event is the Federal Reserve meeting next week. After that, upcoming employment data and the next CPI report could create additional volatility.

Mortgage rates don't move directly with the Fed's rate decisions. They respond to expectations for inflation, economic growth, and the future path of interest rates.

For now, the recent improvement in mortgage pricing is encouraging, but the momentum appears to be slowing.

🔒 MY RATE OUTLOOK

NEXT 15 DAYS: LOCK 'EM

For buyers closing within the next two weeks, I favor locking. We've had a nice improvement in pricing, and I don't see a compelling reason to gamble on getting much more. The upcoming Fed meeting adds another layer of uncertainty.

15–30 DAYS: CAUTIOUSLY FLOAT

There is room for rates to move in either direction as we get more economic data. However, a meaningful improvement from current levels looks less likely, and rates could move roughly a quarter point higher if the market turns against us.

30+ DAYS: CAUTIOUSLY FLOAT

For longer-term closings, the decision comes down to risk tolerance and timing. We could see rates hold near current levels, improve further, or give back some of the recent gains. Buyers who value certainty should not hesitate to lock.

These are market-based outlooks, not guarantees. Individual loan scenarios and closing timelines matter.

🏡 REALTOR PARTNERS: LET'S KEEP DEALS MOVING!

Here's the opportunity: Even if rates don't improve much further, buyers can still make smart moves in today's market.

Seller concessions, temporary or permanent rate buydowns, and the right loan structure can help improve affordability and make a deal work.

If you have a buyer waiting for rates to drop, let's run the numbers. If you have a client under contract, let's review their lock strategy before the market moves against them.

The goal isn't to predict the exact bottom of the market. It's to put your buyers in the strongest position possible to get into a home.

Reach out anytime. I'm happy to help you work through the numbers and find a strategy that makes sense for your client.

Have a great week, everyone! Let's get some buyers into homes. 🏡🤝

10/13/2026

📊 WEEKLY MORTGAGE MARKET UPDATE | OCTOBER 13, 2026

Happy Tuesday, Realtor partners! With the holiday yesterday, we're kicking off the week today with some encouraging news: mortgage rates improved last week, and there are signs we may be approaching a short-term peak. However, this week's inflation report could quickly change that outlook.

📉 MORTGAGE RATE UPDATE

After several difficult weeks for the bond market, we finally saw some positive movement. Mortgage bonds rallied Friday afternoon, allowing some lenders to improve pricing.

The 10-year Treasury yield has also pulled back from above 5.30% last week to approximately 5.22% this morning. Mortgage bonds are at their best levels in a couple of weeks.

That's encouraging, but the market remains volatile. Rates have improved, but we haven't seen a clear, sustained downward trend just yet.

📊 THE LATEST ECONOMIC DATA

Here's what stood out from last week:

• Employment: Weekly ADP payroll growth picked up, with reported gains of 22,500 and 23,800 in the two reported periods.

• Mortgage applications: Total applications fell 4.2%. Purchase applications declined 2.1%, while refinance applications dropped 7.5%. Higher rates and affordability challenges continue to weigh on activity.

• Consumer credit: Borrowing increased by $8.28 billion in August, well below expectations of $14.50 billion. This suggests consumer credit growth is slowing.

🔥 THE BIG EVENT THIS WEEK: INFLATION

Wednesday's CPI inflation report is the key event to watch.

If inflation comes in cooler than expected, we could see another rally in mortgage bonds and potentially better mortgage pricing. If inflation runs hotter than expected, rates could move higher again.

This is a week where one economic report could make a meaningful difference. Buyers with loans closing soon should be especially careful about taking unnecessary risks with their rate locks.

🔮 MY RATE OUTLOOK

🔹 Next 15 days: CAUTIOUSLY FLOAT

There are signs rates may be topping out in the short term, but Wednesday's inflation report is a major wildcard. For loans closing in the next couple of weeks, carefully weigh the potential upside against the risk.

🔹 15–30 days: CAUTIOUSLY FLOAT

The October Fed meeting and upcoming employment data could move rates in either direction. For now, there's reason to be cautiously optimistic that we may be near the high point for rates over the next month.

🔹 30+ days: CAUTIOUSLY FLOAT

There's potential for some improvement, but predicting rates a month or more out remains difficult. Inflation, employment, and the bond market will determine whether this recent improvement continues.

These are market outlooks, not guarantees. Every borrower's closing timeline and risk tolerance are different.

🏡 REALTOR PARTNERS: LET'S MAKE THIS MARKET WORK

Here's my take: Don't let buyers assume they have to wait for rates to fall before they can purchase a home.

We can look at the complete picture and explore strategies such as seller concessions, temporary or permanent rate buydowns, and different loan structures to find a payment that makes sense.

And for buyers who are already under contract, let's be strategic about locking versus floating rather than trying to guess the market's next move.

If you have a buyer sitting on the sidelines, a payment concern, or a loan coming up for a rate-lock decision, reach out. I'm happy to run the numbers and help you put together a plan.

Here's to a productive week and getting more buyers into homes! 🏡🤝

10/05/2026

📊 WEEKLY MORTGAGE & HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

Mortgage rates moved higher last week, and unfortunately, the latest market data is not giving us much reason to expect meaningful relief in the immediate future.

The biggest story was the September jobs report, which came in significantly weaker than expected. Payroll growth was only 29,000, versus expectations of 89,000, while unemployment increased to 4.2%. Wage growth also came in below expectations.

Normally, weaker employment data would be positive for mortgage rates because it can put downward pressure on inflation and Treasury yields. However, the bond market didn't respond favorably. Mortgage bonds sold off sharply Friday, pushing rates to some of the worst levels we've seen this year.

🏠 HOUSING MARKET

Home prices continue to show resilience despite higher mortgage rates.

• FHFA home prices increased 0.3% month-over-month in July and 2.6% year-over-year.
• The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Index was up 2.5% year-over-year.
• Mortgage applications fell 6.0%, with purchase applications down 4.3%.

The takeaway: buyers are still dealing with affordability challenges, but home prices have not rolled over. For buyers who find the right home, waiting solely for rates to improve may not necessarily produce a better overall opportunity.

📈 WHAT I'M WATCHING

The bond market remains under pressure, with the 10-year Treasury yield around 5.30%. Mortgage bonds are also starting the week weaker.

This week's Fed meeting minutes could provide some additional insight into the Fed's thinking heading into its October meeting. Next week, we'll get the latest CPI inflation data, which could create another significant move in rates.

🔒 RATE OUTLOOK

Short term: Rates are under pressure, and the near-term outlook remains unfavorable.

Next 15–30 days: I would be cautious about assuming rates are going to improve meaningfully. Inflation data and Treasury yields remain the key risks.

30+ days: There is still potential for rates to move higher before we eventually see more sustained improvement.

Bottom line: This is a market where locking should be seriously considered rather than trying to time the bottom. We can always monitor the market and look for opportunities to improve the rate later if conditions change.

🤝 FOR MY REALTOR PARTNERS

The market may not be giving buyers the rate relief everyone has been hoping for, but there are still opportunities for buyers who are prepared and have the right strategy.

If you have a buyer sitting on the sidelines because they're waiting for rates to come down, let's talk through their specific numbers. Sometimes the best move is not waiting for the perfect rate, but finding the right property and structuring the financing correctly.

As always, I'm happy to run scenarios, review payment options, or help you determine whether a buyer is ready to make a move.

Have a great week, and let's get some buyers into homes! 🏡