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https://www.barrettfinancial.com/jvavro

Jill Vavro, NMLS #151393, 2701 East Insight Way, Suite 150 Chandler, AZ, United States, Chandler, AZ (2026)

06/15/2026

🏡 Weekly Mortgage & Housing Market Update for Realtors

Happy Monday!

There's finally some good news to talk about this week...

Mortgage rates moved lower last week, with the average 30-year fixed rate ending the week at 6.58%, near its lowest level in several weeks. Even better, rates are continuing to improve to start this week as optimism grows surrounding the peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

The result? Lower oil prices, improving bond markets, and better mortgage pricing.

📉 Mortgage Rates Are Improving

Mortgage rates have been on a roller coaster over the past few months, largely driven by inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions.

Now, with the announced agreement between the U.S. and Iran and the expected reopening of the Strait of Hormuz later this week, oil prices have dropped sharply and mortgage bonds have rallied.

While we aren't back to February lows, we're seeing some of the best pricing since early May, which is welcome news for buyers and sellers alike.

📊 Housing Market Highlights

✅ Mortgage applications surged

Overall mortgage applications jumped 10.8%, with:

• Purchase applications up 7%
• Refinance applications up 15%

This is one of the strongest weekly gains we've seen in months and a sign that buyers are responding quickly to even modest improvements in rates.

✅ Existing home sales beat expectations

Existing home sales rose 3.2% in May, coming in at an annual pace of 4.17 million homes.

This exceeded expectations and marked an acceleration from April, showing that buyers are still active despite affordability challenges.

✅ Inflation was mostly in line

Consumer inflation came in largely as expected, while core inflation was slightly cooler than forecast.

Producer prices told a similar story, with headline inflation remaining firm but underlying inflation showing signs of easing.

This is important because cooler inflation gives the Federal Reserve more flexibility moving forward and could help mortgage rates continue trending lower over time.

📈 What to Watch This Week

The biggest event this week is the Federal Reserve meeting, the first under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.

Markets are currently debating:

• Will the Fed keep rates steady?
• Could rate cuts still happen later this year?
• Or will inflation keep pressure on rates?

The answers likely won't create massive moves in mortgage rates overnight, but the Fed's tone will matter.

📅 Rate Outlook

Next 2 Weeks: Cautiously optimistic

Mid-July: Rates could improve another 0.25% if inflation continues to cool and geopolitical tensions remain calm.

Long-Term: The outlook has improved significantly compared to just a few weeks ago.

💡 Agent Takeaway

We're seeing:

✔ Lower mortgage rates

✔ Stronger purchase activity

✔ Existing home sales beating expectations

✔ Inflation showing signs of cooling

✔ Buyer confidence returning

The buyers who sat on the sidelines waiting for rates to improve may finally be getting the opportunity they've been waiting for.

As Realtors, now is a great time to reconnect with those buyers who paused their search earlier this year. Even a modest improvement in rates can make a meaningful difference in affordability and monthly payments.

The market isn't easy, but momentum is moving in the right direction.

📲 Need an updated payment scenario, pre-approval, or help structuring a deal? I'm always happy to help.

06/14/2026

Today, June 14th, we pause to honor the symbol of our nation's history, unity, and resilience. 🇺🇸

At Barrett Financial Group, we are proud to stand together and honor the flag that unites us. We take pride in serving our community under this banner of freedom.

Happy Flag Day to all!

06/11/2026

The World Cup starts today. Which Country are you rooting for?

06/08/2026

🏡 Weekly Mortgage & Housing Market Update for Realtors

Happy Monday, everyone!

Last week was a reminder that mortgage rates don't always move the way we'd like them to. Despite some improvement to start this week, rates moved higher overall last week, with the average 30-year fixed mortgage finishing around 6.66%.

The good news? Buyers haven't disappeared, the economy remains resilient, and there are still opportunities for agents who know how to navigate today's market.

📊 Key Market Highlights

💼 The labor market remains surprisingly strong

The biggest story last week was jobs.

• Job openings surged to 7.6 million, significantly above expectations.
• Private payrolls increased by 122,000.
• Nonfarm payrolls came in at 172,000, nearly double expectations.
• Unemployment remained steady at 4.3%.

A stronger labor market is great for the economy, but it also makes it harder for mortgage rates to improve because it reduces pressure on the Fed to cut rates.

🏠 Buyers are still active, but higher rates are creating some hesitation

Mortgage applications declined 2.5%, with both purchase and refinance activity slipping.

What's important here is that we're not seeing a collapse in demand. We're seeing buyers become more selective and payment-conscious as affordability remains a challenge.

🏗️ Construction activity continues to support housing supply

Construction spending increased again in April, beating expectations.

Builders continue investing despite higher borrowing costs because long-term housing demand remains strong.

💳 Consumers continue spending

Consumer credit rose more than expected, showing households are still borrowing and spending despite elevated rates and inflation concerns.

That tells us consumer confidence remains relatively healthy.

📉 What's Driving Mortgage Rates Right Now?

The market is focused on two things:

✔️ Economic strength and inflation

✔️ Ongoing uncertainty surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz

Strong economic data has reduced expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts, while geopolitical uncertainty continues to influence bond markets and oil prices.

Until one of those stories changes significantly, rates will likely remain range-bound.

📊 Rate Outlook

Next 2 Weeks: Cautiously float

End of June / Early July: Potential for modest improvement

Biggest Catalyst: A resolution involving Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz

Without a major geopolitical breakthrough, rates may bounce around but are not expected to move dramatically higher or lower in the near term.

💡 Agent Takeaway

We're currently seeing:

✔️ Strong employment

✔️ Stable consumer spending

✔️ Continued construction activity

✔️ Buyers still shopping despite rates

✔️ More inventory than we've had in recent years

The reality is that today's buyers are adapting to the market, not waiting for perfect conditions.

The agents winning right now are the ones staying in front of their database, educating buyers on affordability strategies, and helping clients focus on long-term homeownership rather than trying to time interest rates perfectly.

Remember: when rates eventually improve, buyer competition is likely to increase quickly.

📲 Need updated payment scenarios, pre-approvals, rate buydown options, or help structuring a challenging deal? I'm always available as a resource for you and your clients.

06/05/2026

Glazed, sprinkled, or filled—there is absolutely no wrong way to celebrate today. Happy National Donut Day! 🍩✨ Go treat yourself to a box (or three), you’ve earned it.

06/01/2026

🏡 Weekly Mortgage & Housing Market Update for Realtors

Hope everyone is having a great week!

Last week brought some encouraging news for mortgage rates, as rates generally improved throughout the week, helping affordability a bit. Unfortunately, markets are starting this week on a more volatile note as renewed uncertainty surrounding Iran negotiations has pushed rates higher to start the week.

👉 The key takeaway: Mortgage rates remain highly sensitive to global events, but the underlying housing market continues to show resilience.

📊 What Happened Last Week?

• Home prices continue to stabilize
Both major home price indexes showed slowing annual appreciation. Home values are still rising in most markets, but at a much healthier and more sustainable pace than we've seen in recent years.

• Consumer confidence remains surprisingly strong
Despite ongoing affordability challenges and inflation concerns, consumer confidence came in better than expected, suggesting many buyers remain optimistic about their financial outlook.

• Mortgage applications fell sharply
Overall applications dropped 8.5%, largely due to an 18.1% decline in refinance activity. Purchase applications only slipped 0.4%, which tells us buyer demand is holding up much better than refinancing demand.

• Building activity remains healthy
Building permits rebounded 4.4% from the prior month, signaling builders are still planning for future demand despite higher borrowing costs.

• New home sales softened
Sales declined 6.2% in April, reflecting the continued affordability challenges many buyers are facing.

• Labor market showing signs of cooling
Initial and continuing jobless claims both moved higher, suggesting the labor market is gradually softening. This is something the Fed will be watching closely.

📈 What's Driving Rates Right Now?

This week's market movement has very little to do with housing data and almost everything to do with:

✔️ Middle East tensions
✔️ Oil prices
✔️ Inflation concerns
✔️ Federal Reserve expectations

Markets had been optimistic that a peace agreement with Iran was close. However, reports this morning that negotiations may be breaking down caused mortgage bonds to sell off and rates to move higher.

As we've seen repeatedly over the past several weeks, rates are reacting to headlines in real time.

📉 Rate Outlook

Next 2 Weeks: Cautiously float, but monitor closely

15-30 Days: Highly dependent on geopolitical developments

Long-Term Outlook: Still potential for improvement if inflation cools and global tensions ease

The reality is that rates could move meaningfully in either direction depending on how negotiations unfold. A successful agreement could improve rates by as much as 0.25% to 0.50%. If talks completely collapse, rates could move higher by a similar amount.

💡 Agent Takeaway

We're currently seeing:

✔ Home prices stabilizing
✔ Buyers still actively shopping
✔ Inventory gradually improving
✔ A labor market that's beginning to cool
✔ Rates that remain volatile but are not far from recent lows

The buyers who are purchasing today are serious buyers. They're adjusting to the market rather than waiting for perfect conditions.

This continues to be a market where strong agents create opportunities by educating clients, setting expectations, and helping buyers focus on long-term wealth building rather than trying to perfectly time interest rates.

Remember: when rates eventually improve, competition often increases quickly. Many buyers may find that today's negotiating opportunities outweigh waiting for a future rate drop.

📲 Need help structuring a deal, running payment scenarios, or getting a buyer pre-approved quickly? I'm always happy to help.

05/26/2026

Hope everyone had a great Memorial Day weekend! 🇺🇸

🏡 Weekly Mortgage & Housing Market Update for Realtors

Despite some volatility during the middle of last week, mortgage rates ended the week roughly unchanged overall. The good news is that rates have shown some stability recently, and we’re starting to see encouraging signs underneath the surface of the housing market.

👉 Bottom line: Buyers are still active, builders are feeling more optimistic, and housing demand hasn’t disappeared despite affordability challenges.

📊 What You Need to Know This Week:

• Builder confidence improved
The NAHB Housing Market Index rose to 37, beating expectations and showing builders are becoming more optimistic about market conditions moving forward.

• Pending home sales increased
Pending sales rose 1.4% in April, another sign that buyers are continuing to move forward even in a higher-rate environment.

• Mortgage applications slipped slightly
Applications declined 2.3%, with both purchase and refinance activity easing modestly week-over-week.

• Housing data came in stronger than expected
Building permits and housing starts both outperformed forecasts, signaling continued construction activity and long-term confidence in housing demand.

• Labor market remains stable
Initial jobless claims moved slightly lower while continuing claims increased modestly. Overall, employment conditions remain relatively healthy.

📉 What’s Driving Rates Right Now

Mortgage rates continue to move primarily based on:
• Middle East negotiations
• Oil prices
• Inflation concerns
• Bond market volatility

The market remains very sensitive to headlines surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. As long as negotiations continue and oil prices stay contained, rates have room to gradually improve.

📊 Rate Outlook & Strategy

• Next 2 weeks: Cautiously float, but stay alert
• 15–30 days: Gradual improvement is possible if a deal is reached
• Big picture: The ceiling on rates may already be behind us

If a finalized agreement is reached overseas and oil prices ease, we could see mortgage pricing improve further heading into June.

💡 Agent Takeaway

We’re in a market where:
✔ Rates are stabilizing
✔ Buyers are still writing offers
✔ Builder confidence is improving
✔ Inventory is slowly growing

The buyers who are active today are serious buyers. They’ve adjusted to the market and are looking for the right opportunity, not perfect timing.

This is a great time for agents to reconnect with buyers who paused their search over the last few months. Small improvements in rates and increased inventory can make a meaningful difference in affordability and negotiating power.

📲 Need updated payment scenarios, pre-approvals, or help structuring deals in today’s market? I’m always here to help.

05/25/2026

This Memorial Day, we honor and remember the brave men and women who made the ultimate sacrifice for our freedom. 🇺🇸

Wishing everyone a safe and meaningful Memorial Day spent with family, friends, and gratitude for those who served our country.

Happy Memorial Day!

05/18/2026

🏡 Weekly Mortgage & Housing Market Update for Realtors

Mortgage rates moved higher again last week, with many lenders pricing at the highest levels we’ve seen this year. Inflation concerns, elevated oil prices, and continued uncertainty in the Middle East are keeping pressure on the bond market and rate sheets.

👉 But here’s the important part:
Even with higher rates, buyers are still active, and purchase demand is holding up better than many expected.

📊 What You Need to Know This Week:

• Existing home sales were basically flat
Sales edged up just 0.2% in April, showing the market is still moving despite affordability challenges. Buyers haven’t disappeared, they’re just being more selective and payment-conscious.

• Purchase applications increased
Mortgage applications rose 1.7% overall, driven by a 3.9% jump in purchase activity. Refinance demand softened, but buyers are still stepping into the market.

• Inflation came in hotter than expected
CPI increased 0.6% monthly and 3.8% annually, keeping pressure on mortgage rates and reducing hopes for near-term Fed cuts.

• Labor market showing signs of cooling
Hiring growth slowed again, and jobless claims moved slightly higher. The labor market is still stable overall, but we’re beginning to see some softening.

• Consumer spending remains resilient
Retail sales continued to increase, though at a slower pace than the prior month. Consumers are still spending despite inflation and higher borrowing costs.

📉 What’s Driving Rates Right Now

The biggest factors remain:
• Inflation
• Oil prices
• The ongoing Middle East conflict
• Expectations around future Fed policy

Markets are becoming increasingly concerned that inflation could stay elevated longer than expected, especially if energy prices continue rising.

📊 Rate Outlook & Strategy

• Next 2 weeks: Strong locking bias
• 15–30 days: Consider locking for protection
• Long-term: Improvement is still possible later this summer if inflation cools and geopolitical tensions ease

For now, rates remain highly reactive and volatility is elevated.

💡 Agent Takeaway

We’re in a market where:
✔ Rates are higher
✔ Inventory remains tight
✔ Buyers are still active
✔ Affordability is the biggest challenge

The agents winning right now are the ones helping buyers focus on the bigger picture instead of chasing the “perfect” rate environment.

Remember: buyers can refinance later, but they can’t go back and buy at today’s prices once competition heats back up.

📲 Need updated payment scenarios, pre-approvals, or help structuring deals in today’s market? I’m always happy to help.

05/11/2026

🏡 Weekly Mortgage & Market Update for Realtors

Mortgage rates moved slightly lower last week, which is welcome news after the recent volatility we’ve been navigating. While the market is still reacting heavily to global headlines, we’re continuing to see signs that buyers are adapting and demand is holding up better than many expected.

👉 Bottom line: The housing market is not slowing down evenly. Some areas are cooling, while buyer demand continues to show resilience underneath the surface.

📊 What You Need to Know This Week:

• New home sales jumped 8.9%
That’s a strong sign buyers are still moving forward, especially in markets where builders are offering incentives and affordability solutions.

• Construction activity remains active
Even though building permits declined sharply, overall construction spending increased, showing builders are still investing and preparing for future demand.

• Mortgage applications declined
Applications were down 4.4%, mainly due to softer refinance activity. Purchase demand also eased slightly, likely tied to recent rate volatility.

• Labor market remains surprisingly resilient
ADP hiring came in softer than expected, but the broader jobs report was stronger than forecast with unemployment holding steady at 4.3%. Consumers are still working, still spending, and still buying.

• Consumer borrowing surged
Consumer credit increased far more than expected, showing people are continuing to spend and lean into financing despite higher rates.

📉 What’s Driving Rates Right Now

The market continues to be driven primarily by:
• Middle East tensions
• Oil prices
• Inflation expectations

Mortgage rates are reacting more to geopolitical developments than traditional housing data right now. As optimism around a potential Iran agreement shifts day-to-day, rates are moving with it.

📊 Rate Outlook & Strategy

• Next 2 weeks: Cautiously float, but lock based on risk tolerance
• 15–30 days: Potential for improvement if oil prices ease
• Long-term outlook: Rates are still expected to trend lower over time

The key takeaway is this:
Rates may continue bouncing around short term, but the broader expectation is still for gradual improvement once global tensions settle.

💡 Agent Takeaway

We’re in a market where:
✔ Buyers are still active
✔ Employment remains stable
✔ Builders are still building
✔ Rates are volatile, but not spiraling higher

That creates opportunity for agents who stay proactive and educate buyers properly.

The buyers winning right now are the ones who understand they can always refinance later, but they can’t go back and buy at today’s prices once the market heats back up.

📲 Need updated payment scenarios, strategy calls, pre-approvals, or help structuring deals in today’s market? I’m always here as a resource.

Jill Vavro, NMLS #151393

06/15/2026

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