01/28/2026
Stop waiting to Refi or Purchase and here is why.
1st picture is today, 10 year shows 4.229%, 2nd picture it shows 3.708% in 9/2024. Which means the rates were lower at that time than today 01/27/2026. I told countless people to either refi or buy at that time. But most wanted to wait cause they "knew" the rates would go down more, but they didn't. They got higher, over 7% at the end of the year and it was high all of 2025. The Feds don't control the mortgage rates, which is another huge misconception. If you want to follow the rates you need to follow the 10 year treasury.
The relationship between the 10 year Treasury yield and mortgage rates is one of the most important correlations in the financial world. While the Federal Reserve often gets the headlines, it’s the 10 year Treasury that actually acts as the "North Star" for what you'll pay on a 30 year fixed mortgage.
1. Why do they move together?
Even though a mortgage is typically a 30 year loan, most people don’t stay in their homes for three decades. Between selling, moving, or refinancing, the average life of a mortgage is actually closer to 7–10 years.
Because of this, investors who buy mortgage backed securities (MBS) compare them directly to the 10-year Treasury note. They view both as similar "duration" investments, but since mortgages carry more risk (like the risk of you paying it off early or defaulting), they demand a higher return than they would for a "risk free" government bond.
2. The "Spread" (The Gap Between Them)
Mortgage rates are almost always higher than the 10 year Treasury yield. The difference between the two is known as the spread.
Historical Average: Historically, the spread is about 1.7% to 2.0% (170–200 basis points).
Current Climate (2026): As of late January 2026, the 10 year Treasury yield is hovering around 4.23%, while the average 30 year fixed mortgage is approximately 6.09%.
Why the gap changes: When the economy is volatile or inflation is high, the spread widens (meaning mortgage rates go up even if Treasuries stay flat) because investors want a "safety premium."
