Rocky Kelley Home Loans - NMLS 2098193

10/28/2026

MARKET UPDATE 10/2/2026

Key Points
• FOMC is widely expected to hold rates at 3.75%–4.00% at today’s meeting, with dissents expected from Hammack, Logan, and Kashkari in favor of a 25bp hike. The market will be focused on Warsh’s press conference and will look for clues on if December’s rate hike is as firm as the market is expecting (~85% of hike priced in).
• Oil rose on reports that the US has told Persian Gulf nations to prepare for a short, intense campaign against Iran after the midterms. President Trump is leaning toward a large post-election strike but has not reached a final decision.
• New home sales fell 0.6% in September to a 676k annualized pace, beating the 651k estimate, while the median price fell 3.9% y/y to $400k. Homebuilder confidence is at a 14-year low and sales are being held up by concessions rather than demand.

October FOMC Meeting Preview:
At today’s FOMC, the Fed is widely expected to hold rates at 3.75%–4.00% (markets currently pricing in a 9% probability of a hike), and voting members Hammack, Logan, and Kashkari are expected to dissent in favor of a 25bp hike. The statement is expected to retain language that inflation “remains elevated” along with the commitment to a “timelier return” to 2%, preserving a tightening bias without committing to a date. The more consequential question is December, where markets have roughly 85% of a hike priced in and most participants in September saw another increase as justified by year end.
Since last FOMC several things have changed. The AI trade has sold off and credit spreads on AI-linked companies have widened, which does some of the Fed’s tightening work without a rate move. July minutes showed roughly six or seven participants already flagging how the AI buildout is being financed, with about three noting that capex is increasingly debt-funded, including from nonbanks and regional banks. The economic data also softened the case: payrolls rose just 29k in September with 60k shaved off the prior two months, unemployment ticked up 0.1pp, and a 36bp downward revision to August core PCE means the year-end core print will likely undershoot the 3.4% the median participant projected. Warsh’s own preferred measure, the share of PCE components running above 3%, is estimated to have fallen to 48% on a 12-month basis from 52%. The tell will be how Warsh characterizes financial conditions at the press conference: shrugging off the AI correction keeps December live, while framing it as a financial-stability concern points to a hold through year end.

Middle East Risk:
Escalation risk is building in the Middle East around the midterms. The Wall Street Journal reported the US has told several Persian Gulf nations to prepare for a short, intense campaign against Iran, with Trump leaning toward a large post-election attack but not having decided. A third US carrier group has been sent toward the Gulf, and Trump said over the weekend it is “getting to be decision time” on whether there is a deal or a renewed assault. Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure continue, including a fire near Ras Tanura, the kingdom’s largest oil-export terminal, early Tuesday, which was contained with damage unclear. Brent traded near $115 and WTI above $101, with Brent now close to double where it started the year. It’s worth noting that the futures move has run ahead of the physical market: plenty of oil continues to leave the Persian Gulf and underlying physical indicators have been soft, with API reporting US crude stockpiles down 2 million barrels last week.

September New Home Sales:
New single-family home sales fell 0.6% in September to a 676k annualized rate, above the 651k consensus. The median price fell 3.9% y/y to $400k, the seventh month out of nine this year with a y/y price decline. Mortgage rates rose roughly half a point during the month and have eased only slightly since, and homebuilder confidence sits at its lowest level in 14 years. The regional split was weak where it matters most, with the South, the largest selling region, down 6.6% to 413k annualized, and the Midwest also falling, offset by gains in the West and Northeast. Inventory came down slowly, with 476k new homes for sale, down 2.3% y/y, representing 8.4 months of supply, the lowest this year but still well above pre-pandemic levels. The headline beat is less encouraging than it looks: price cuts and subsidized rate buydowns are doing the work rather than underlying demand, which leaves builders exposed if concessions get more expensive.

10/16/2026

MARKET UPDATE 10/16/2026

Key Points
- Producer prices (PPI) jumped 1.3% in September, more than double the 0.6% estimate
- Jobless claims came in at 199k, right in line with expectations
- Fed Chair Warsh declined to signal an October move, and markets read that as a likely hold

Producer Prices
The Producer Price Index (PPI) tracks what businesses pay for the goods and services they use, which makes it an early warning for consumer inflation. September's reading was a big one. Headline PPI rose 1.3% for the month, against an estimate of 0.6%, and is now up 6.3% over the past year, against an estimate of 5.4%.

Why it matters: when business costs rise this sharply, companies often pass them on to consumers. That keeps inflation elevated and makes it harder for the Fed to lower rates, which is bad news for mortgage rates.

Jobless Claims
Initial jobless claims, the weekly count of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, came in at 199k. That was in line with the 200k estimate and barely changed from the prior week's 197k. Very few people are losing their jobs, which points to a still-strong labor market. A strong job market tends to keep upward pressure on mortgage rates.

Fed Speak
Two regional Fed presidents voiced growing concern about inflation Thursday. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warned that repeated supply shocks, like rising energy costs from overseas conflicts, could lead businesses and consumers to expect higher prices as the new normal. That makes inflation much harder to control. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said she has "absolutely" changed her view from six months ago, when she was willing to look past supply-driven inflation. She is now less convinced the Fed can simply wait it out.
This morning, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh spoke at the IMF's annual meetings in Bangkok. He would not say what the Fed will do at its October meeting: "I don't prejudge meetings... It's a new chapter at the Fed, and we're not in that business anymore." He was optimistic that AI-driven productivity gains could help moderate inflation over the medium term, and said the global economy is showing "more resilience than expected."
Markets took his silence on hikes as a sign the Fed is likely to hold at the October meeting, which eased some fears of back-to-back hikes. That is a small positive for rates, but this week's PPI print shows why the Fed is not out of the woods on inflation.

Looking Ahead
Next week is a light on the economic calendar but expect some market movement as we approach the midterm elections. The next Fed meeting begins on 10/27.

09/16/2026

TODAY IS FED DAY (REMEMBER, NOT THE FEDS BUT THE FED)…

The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.

09/16/2026

There are new updates to financing a manufactured house, including a home that was relocated. Please let us know if we can answer any questions.

GREAT NEWS! Manufactured homes that have been moved from original location are ALLOWED!

CONVENTIONAL: MANUFACTURED HOMES MOVED FROM ANOTHER SITE - Previously ineligible.

FREDDIE MAC: manufactured homes that have been moved from another site and are now permanently affixed are allowed with the following:
• The home has been inspected to verify structural integrity by a licensed professional engineer or appropriate local, state or federal authority, and the inspection report is retained in the mortgage file
• The home is not located in a more restrictive wind, roof load or thermal zone than the zone for which it was constructed
• All other manufactured home requirements apply

Call 936-447-LOAN to learn more!

09/11/2026

You may have seen other headlines today that reference 30yr fixed rates of 6.76%. Those stories would be citing Freddie Mac's weekly rate survey which is an average of the 5 business days (4 in this case, due to the holiday) ending yesterday (September 9th). Because of that methodology, the numb...

09/10/2026

MARKET UPDATE 9/10/2026

US 10 Year at highest level in 3 years (BAD FOR MORTGAGE RATES)

Key Points
• Headline producer inflation rose 0.4% in August, matching expectations, while Core PPI increased 0.2%, which was 0.1% below estimates. (PPI usually doesn't move markets, but when it comes out the day before CPI and indicates higher inflation, it does, which is today)
• The Treasury department’s expanded buyback schedule came in smaller than expected, sending the 10yr yield to 4.85%, its highest level since November 2023. Analysts had speculated operations could be sized up to $10 billion, but the largest new maximum is $6 billion.
• Tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalated Wednesday after the U.S. struck Iranian tankers. Brent crude settled at $101.21 and WTI at $96.05, with both benchmarks rising more than 3%. Markets are now pricing in a 63% probability of a Fed rate hike in September.
• Mortgage applications fell 2.7% for the week ending Sept. 4 as the 30-year conforming rate rose 6bps to 6.85%, the highest since June 2025. Refis fell 6% w/w and 25% y/y, the slowest weekly pace since May 2025.

US-Iran Conflict Heats Up:

The US-Iran conflict escalated sharply into commercial shipping this week. The US military said it destroyed five Iranian tankers after ballistic missiles were fired at a US Navy warship overnight, while Iranian media claimed strikes on two US warships and eight oil tankers in the Persian Gulf. Houthi militants also targeted energy facilities in Saudi Arabia, and European natural gas traded at its highest level since 2023 heading into the winter heating season. Following yesterday’s escalation, Brent settled up 3.4% at $101.21, above $100 for the first time since July, with WTI up 3.3% to $96.05. Brent is now up roughly 65% year to date. The bond market sold off following the attacks and expectations for a rate hike in September rose. Short-maturity yields led the early-week move higher, with 2yr to 5yr yields setting new 2026 highs before the long end took over following the buyback announcement. Swaps now imply a roughly 63% chance of a RATE HIKE at the September FOMC meeting, up from 60% Tuesday, with at least two hikes fully priced by the middle of 2027.

08/10/2026

Are you a Doctor or about to start your career as a Doctor? Crystal Clear Mortgage offers 100% financing for loans up to $1.5 million and 95% financing for loans up to $2.0 million. WITH NO PMI!!!

Naturally, restrictions apply and not all will qualify.

See the screen shots below to learn more! Call 936-447-LOAN with any questions!

08/07/2026

On August 3rd, the GSE's (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) made it exponentially harder for a buyer to finance a condo. It gets even worse January of next year.

One of the number one reasons we see condos declined for financing? INSURANCE. Now, the coverage has to equal full replacement cost. i.e. replacement cost is $10,000,000 for all units; insurance must be for $10,000,000. Most condo associations and by proxy, the condo owners, cannot afford this increase in coverage...especially along the Gulf Coast.

Please see attached if you are listing a condo or thinking of making an offer on one. Call us with any questions. 936-447-5626

07/02/2026

Wishing everyone a safe and happy 4th of July! As always, cell phones are 24-7, so call us if you need us!

06/12/2026

Want to stay ahead of market changes? We can help! Contact us today!