03/20/2025
The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee voted to hold the Fed Funds rate range at 4.25% to 4.50%.
3 Things to know:
1. Today, the FOMC decided to keep the Fed Funds rate range unchanged at 4.25% to 4.50%. This is the second decision in a row in which the Fed Funds rate cuts have been paused.
2. In the statement, the Committee inserted the following: “Uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased”.
3. The futures market is forecasting approximately 50 basis points of rate cuts by the end of 2025. Specifically, it expects a 25 basis point cut at the July 30th meeting, followed by another 25 basis point cut at the December 10th meeting.
The futures market had almost fully priced in a 100% likelihood that the Fed would keep rates unchanged at today’s meeting, and the Committee followed through with that expectation, opting to pause rate cuts once again. Chairman Powell emphasized that the Committee’s focus is on distinguishing “the signal from the noise.” Here, “signal” refers to reliable economic data, while “noise” pertains to the fluctuating headlines surrounding policy changes. Powell also addressed the current administration’s focus on key areas such as trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation. He noted that the cumulative impact of these policies will shape both the economy and the trajectory of monetary policy. Ultimately, Powell stated that there is no rush to adjust the policy stance and that the Fed is in a strong position to wait for more clarity before making any changes.
What’s ahead:
In summary, Chairman Powell's outlook is cautious, and his approach appears to be one of patience, emphasizing the need to wait for more clarity. Powell highlighted the ongoing uncertainty in the economy, particularly stemming from the policy changes being implemented by the new administration. The economy is expected to grow at a slower pace than previously anticipated, with GDP growth projections for 2025 revised down to 1.7% according to their latest forecasts. Inflation is expected to rise slightly to 2.7%, with tariffs being highlighted as a key concern. Powell reiterated that the Fed will remain flexible in response to evolving conditions…as always!
Post-meeting, the futures market continues to price in two 25 basis point rate cuts in 2025.
Expectations of major events are typically priced into markets prices before they actually occur. But sometimes these events are not fully thought through.