09/07/2026
How Gambling Logic Unraveled a WWII Mystery!
"Is betting on an obvious thing always a sure thing?" No.
Not always, I told a young scientist sitting across the table in a bustling coffee shop.
"Sounds like there’s some risk," he mused, taking a sip of his latte.
I asked him to think about this WWII situation: our Navy's fighter planes were returning home riddled with bullets. An engineering team was assigned to figure out where these planes needed more armor. It seemed clear-cut because they saw bullet holes on the wingtips, the central body, and the elevators.
One of the engineers remarked confidently, "we can predict where the armor goes based on where the planes are getting hit, and those are the parts we need to reinforce."
But what if those parts are not the soft spots and problem areas? What if the Navy engineers got it all wrong? So often people get the answer exactly backwards.
Abraham Wald, a statistician, was like that card counter sitting quietly at the table while everyone else placed their usual bets. He disagreed with the young engineers, arguing they should instead armor the nose, engines, and mid-body. Madness, right? After all, those parts weren't showing bullet holes.
Here's the catch: Imagine you're at the blackjack table, counting cards. While everyone else is distracted by the immediate game, you're thinking ahead, considering the cards that haven't yet been played.
Wald was doing just that. He realized the Navy was only examining the planes that survived. What about the planes that didn’t make it back? They were the ones hit in the areas with no bullet holes. The Navy wasn’t looking at the entire deck, just the cards they could see.
I pointed out to the young engineer that it's easy to rely on the evidence that's right in front of us, but like a good card counter, sometimes you have to calculate the odds by thinking about what's missing from the puzzle. We have to consider the cards we haven’t seen yet.
The young engineer leaned back, a look of realization dawning. "Never thought of it that way," he admitted.
And isn't that often the case? Sometimes, the winning move is to think about the cards that haven’t yet been dealt.
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