Doug Thorpe, First Vice President/Investments - Stifel

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Coupled with more benign comments from Fed officials this week, yesterday's improved reading on inflation has convinced ...
12/01/2023

Coupled with more benign comments from Fed officials this week, yesterday's improved reading on inflation has convinced the market the Fed is done with rate hikes and rather gearing up for rate cuts sooner than later. Pulling down the 10-year UST to 4.33% as of 8:50 a.m. ET, market players are pricing in a March rate cut with a near 50% probability.

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An improved inflationary picture reinforces the market's expectation that the Fed is done with rate hikes. Of course, th...
11/30/2023

An improved inflationary picture reinforces the market's expectation that the Fed is done with rate hikes. Of course, there have been head fakes in inflation before, but even if inflation continues to descend, there is still more room to go and no further rate hikes does not yet translate into rate cuts. With the volatility in September's boost versus a cooler October, the November report will be a key indicator as to the longer-term momentum in inflation.

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A further upward revision reinforces the storyline of a robust and resilient consumer in the third quarter with growth f...
11/29/2023

A further upward revision reinforces the storyline of a robust and resilient consumer in the third quarter with growth further supported by gains in investment, housing and government spending. Rather than looking back, however, the bigger question is the pathway for growth into year-end and further into 2024.

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Despite ongoing strength in the economy and the consumer, the relative loss of momentum has given at least some Fed offi...
11/28/2023

Despite ongoing strength in the economy and the consumer, the relative loss of momentum has given at least some Fed officials confidence that monetary policy has done enough to – eventually – tackle inflation. According to Fed Governor Christopher Waller, the recent "slowing" of economic activity suggests policy may be sufficiently tight to contain inflation that still remains "too high."

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The U.S. consumer continues to defy expectations for a material slowdown amid elevated prices and firm Fed policy. Accor...
11/27/2023

The U.S. consumer continues to defy expectations for a material slowdown amid elevated prices and firm Fed policy. According to Adobe Analytics, shoppers spent a record $9.8 billion online for black Friday, up 7.5% from last year, with shopping at physical stores up 2-5%, according to RetailNext.

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Investors appear increasingly comforted by the notion of a more patient Fed, pricing in sizable rate cuts sooner than la...
11/22/2023

Investors appear increasingly comforted by the notion of a more patient Fed, pricing in sizable rate cuts sooner than later. However, with inflation still elevated, Committee members indicated virtually no interest in cutting rates any time soon.

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Amid rising rates, elevated inflation and lackluster real income growth over the past few years, affordability remains a...
11/21/2023

Amid rising rates, elevated inflation and lackluster real income growth over the past few years, affordability remains at a record low with inventory supply severely restrained. This has created both a barrier to entrance for would-be homebuyers, as well as a sizable barrier to exit for would-be sellers. Going forward, as the Fed presumably keeps rates higher for longer, there is likely to be little relief in housing conditions without a sizable influx in supply.

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Last week, after a series of cooler-than-expected inflation reports, investors began to price in hefty expectations for ...
11/20/2023

Last week, after a series of cooler-than-expected inflation reports, investors began to price in hefty expectations for rate cuts in the coming meetings, potentially as early as March. Of course, the overreaction in longer-term rates specifically suggests the prior run-up was more a reflection of changed expectations for Fed policy as opposed to more structural variables, such as fiscal deficits.

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According to investors, the softer inflation and broader economic data means central bank tightening is coming to an end...
11/17/2023

According to investors, the softer inflation and broader economic data means central bank tightening is coming to an end with rate cuts now priced in for 2024, and not just here in the U.S. According to Bloomberg data, on the heels of a cooler-than-expected U.K. spending report with retail sales dropping 0.3% in October following a revised 1.1% drop in September, market participants anticipate a full point of European Central Bank (ECB)0 rate reductions next year and similar easing by the Bank of England (BOE).

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While welcome signs of improvement, inching inflation closer to 2%, there is still a sizable amount of ground yet to cov...
11/16/2023

While welcome signs of improvement, inching inflation closer to 2%, there is still a sizable amount of ground yet to cover. Nevertheless, the resumption of disinflation after three months of upward and sideways action increases the odds the Fed will remain on the sidelines for yet another meeting.

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On the heels of a weaker-than-expected CPI report, this morning's cooler-than-expected PPI report has investors convince...
11/15/2023

On the heels of a weaker-than-expected CPI report, this morning's cooler-than-expected PPI report has investors convinced the Fed has done enough to tame inflation, as the prospect of reaching 2% inflation has become a step closer. Such a conclusion, however, appears to be somewhat premature. After all, the decline in the headline CPI specifically comes after three months of inflation reversing.

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After three months of upward momentum in the headline, a cooler-than-expected inflation report is a welcome step in the ...
11/14/2023

After three months of upward momentum in the headline, a cooler-than-expected inflation report is a welcome step in the right direction as price pressures inch towards 2%.

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