04/02/2026
Looking ahead to Q2 2026, the macro backdrop remains in control of risk assets, and the message is unchanged from the start of the year. This is an environment where playing defence is necessary. There are periods for offence, but there are also periods where protecting capital is the priority, and this is one of them.
Three months into the year, the evidence supports a defensive stance. Equity markets have rolled over, with major indices down double digits. This confirms risk-on conditions are not present. When equities struggle, liquidity tightens, sentiment weakens, and growth stocks tends to underperform.
Looking at sector performance, the story is consistent. Defensive assets are leading, while risk-on sectors remain under pressure. This rotation matters. Until capital flows back into growth and higher risk areas.
Energy led the quarter, up 26%, well ahead of everything else. Materials followed at 13%, then consumer staples at 8% and utilities at 3%. These were the only sectors that were positive and it’s not a coincidence that they’re all defensive.
On the other side, technology was the worst performer, down 41%. Healthcare and consumer discretionary also struggled, both falling around 18 to 20%.
What’s interesting is how sectors rotate through a bear market. Early on, defensives like energy, staples, and utilities tend to lead. As the bear market becomes more established, healthcare usually starts to outperform.
That’s why healthcare is the sector to watch for the rest of 2026. It’s not the time to be stepping into technology or consumer discretionary yet. The smarter play right now is preparing for that next rotation into healthcare.
Don’t fall into the trap of thinking something is “cheap” just because it’s down a long way. A lot of these technology stocks, even after big drops, are still expensive on a valuation basis. Price alone doesn’t equal value. In bear markets, things that look cheap can keep getting cheaper. And in many cases, they will.
So this isn’t the time to be bottom fishing in tech. Patience matters here.