07/15/2026
Scarcity is not a word that comes to mind when you think about stock market performance over the past two decades.
But, investors have benefited from a powerful tailwind: a shrinking supply of public equities driven by buybacks, mergers, and a historically slow IPO market.
But what if that dynamic is beginning to reverse?
In our latest CIO Letter, "If Scarcity Ends," Kasey Wopperer explores why the balance between the supply and demand of public equities may be approaching an important inflection point and why that could have significant implications for valuations, market leadership, and portfolio construction.
Our Key Takeaways are:
-The first half of 2026 has rewarded optimism. Earnings strengthened, AI investment continues to accelerate, and markets have recovered to new highs.
-Momentum and leverage have reached historically elevated levels. Expectations leave less room for disappointment than they have in several years.
-Today's market may be entering a new phase. For nearly twenty years investors benefited from shrinking public equity supply. That tailwind may now be reversing.
-Future returns may depend less on multiple expansion and more on free cash flow generation, capital allocation, and returns on invested capital.
-Technology revolutions create enormous wealth, but they have historically also attracted too much capital. AI may ultimately follow a similar path.
-We remain constructive on long-term innovation while emphasizing diversification, valuation discipline, and businesses capable of generating durable free cash flow.
Read the full CIO Letter here:
https://www.stonecreek-advisors.com/blog/2026-second-quarter-cio-letter-if-scarcity-ends
Technology revolutions create enormous wealth, but they have historically also attracted too much capital. AI may ultimately follow a similar path.