EDGE - Crop Insurance Agency

12/29/2023

END OF YEAR PRICE VIDEO

https://youtu.be/-LqMNk2lSCU

EDGE Market Update (December 26th – 29th)

Trading volume remained light this week at the Chicago Board of Trade as traders took vacation time to spend with their families. Although trade was light, this did not slow down volatility of the grains this week. Weather models in Brazil continue to show constant variations, whipsawing markets back and forth within trading ranges when forecasts change. Weather models are currently suggesting dry areas of Brazil will receive 3-5 inches of rain by the end of next week, weighing on soybean futures. Private analysts have lowered the Brazilian soybean crop to 5.5 – 5.6 billion bushels, which is 300 million bushels lower than the current USDA forecast. Traders will be anxious to see the January USDA crop report and new USDA forecast, where a reduction is likely. Managed Money is currently neutral in the soybean pit, which means that markets could be moved significantly either way depending on Brazilian weather moving forward. US Corn exports should remain high until June as Brazil is running out of exportable corn. Private estimates have reduced Brazil’s corn crop to 4.6 billion bushels, where the USDA has estimated their crop at 5.1 billion bushels. The US Dollar has weakened 5% in the last two months. Historically, hedge funds buy equities and commodities on a weaker Dollar.

March ‘24 Soybean futures closed on Friday at $12.98, posting a loss of 8 cents per bushel for the week. Soybeans surged early in the week, rallying to the 20-Day Moving Average at $13.27 before being immediately rejected there and sent back lower to important trendline support of $12.98. Price ideally holds here or more negative price action may occur next week, with the first stop being $12.84. Resistance is the 9-Day Moving Average of $13.15, followed higher by the 20-Day Moving Average of $13.24. Strength indicators and Money Flows turned weaker as trading finished before the New Year. Long-term momentum of Soybeans is negative and trending lower on balance.

March ‘23 Corn futures closed the week at $4.71, down 2 cents on the week. Price has immediate support in the $4.65 – 4.68 range for next week. Resistance remains $4.80 (20-Day MA and Trendline Resistance) into next week. Technical indicators are turning weaker in the short-term. Strength indicators and Money Flows rose higher to start the week, but with negative pressure on price on Thursday and Friday, closed weaker. Long-term momentum of corn remains negative at this time. Bullish fundamental news is needed to get hedge funds excited about owning corn again. The price of corn was down 31% Year-Over-Year, the largest drop in over a decade.

Crop Insurance Updates
We are ready to report your production for the 2023 crop year in order to get APH databases updated. AgriSompo North America will be holding agent update meetings starting next week where we will learn of any new updates to federal crop insurance and private hail products.

Thank you for your business. Have a Happy New Year!

The information presented in this message may include forward-looking statements. All statements other than statements of historical fact are statements that...

12/04/2023

The EDGE Market Gauges successfully helped farmers beat the average price again during the 2023 growing season, outperforming the average price of the December 2023 Corn contract. Early sales in '23 and selling opportunities during the June/July weather market triggered the gauges at ripe times.

Thank you to our preferred ag lenders - Kentland Bank, Buckley State Bank and Ge**er State Bank - for your backing of this program for the benefit of local farmers.

If you would like to access this tool for your farm, please reach out to our office at (217) 394-2243 or message us here.

EDGE helps farmers protect their revenue and preserve their hard-earned equity. We do this by combining crop insurance and revenue management so farming families can take less risk, make more profit, and enjoy a better quality of life.

11/18/2023

EDGE Market Update (November 13th - 17th)

https://youtu.be/cHWQclet5W4

Commodity markets reversed lower mid-week after initial surges in price due to traders taking profits before the Thanksgiving holiday with rains in the forecast for Brazil. Weather models are inconsistent on different levels of moisture expected, however do agree that rains will begin Sunday and most likely end on Thursday. The long-range forecasts expect a dry December. There is concern that the second corn crop in South America will be smaller due to expected weather conditions, which would be a tailwind for corn futures. US Exporters sold 71 million bushels of corn and 144 million bushels of soybeans last week, which were better than trade expectations. Oil futures are weak as inventories are growing much faster than demand and tensions in the Middle East have settled down for the time being.

January ‘24 Soybean futures closed on Friday at $13.40, posting a loss of 7 cents per bushel for the week. Soybeans surged early in the week, breaking trendline resistance in the $13.75-13.80 range and almost hit $14.00 resistance, but then reversed lower mid-week. Price fell 58 cents from the high on Wednesday. Price is now basing above support levels, which is healthy. Support is currently the breakout zone of $13.30 - $13.32, along with a cluster of Moving Averages in the $13.27 - $13.40 range. Resistance now remains $13.75 – 13.80 followed higher by $14.00. Long-term momentum of Soybeans is positive and trending higher on balance, above a neutral reading. Managed Money bought another 19K contracts of Soybeans through Tuesday, November 14th, increasing their net long position to 87K contracts.

December ‘23 Corn futures closed the week at $4.67, up 3 cents on the week. Price continues to consolidate at the bottom of the trading range ($4.61 – 5.09) from August. Support in the $4.65 area ideally holds next week to allow price to test $4.75 (20-Day Moving Average) and then bigger resistance at $4.81 (50-Day Moving Average). Technical indicators are neutral in the short-term. Strength indicators improved the past two weeks and sit just below a neutral reading. Money Flows surged higher to start the week, but with negative pressure on price closed at a neutral reading on Friday. Long-term momentum of Corn remains negative at this time. Although price has not improved much, technicals are improving under the table currently. Managed Money bought 5K contracts of corn through Tuesday, November 14th and decreased their net short position to 163K contracts.

Crop Insurance Updates
The RMA has announced that policyholders will have additional time to pay multi-peril insurance premiums this fall due to natural disasters. Interest will be deferred for 60 days, or until November 30th. AgriSompo North America has announced hail premiums are due December 1st to avoid interest accrual. This is 30 days past the typical due date for hail premiums.

The Harvest Price for corn is officially registered at $4.88 compared to the Spring Base Price of $5.91. The Harvest Price for soybeans came in at $12.84 compared to the Spring Base Price of $13.76. The possibility of revenue claims is higher this fall, especially for corn, with the drop in harvest price. The deadline to submit a revenue claim is December 10th. It is essential to submit timely claims to avoid putting any indemnity payments in jeopardy. Please call us if you have any questions about your coverage or if you think you may have a claim.

Thank you for your business. Have a Happy Thanksgiving!

- Dylan Reetz, Agent

The information presented in this message may include forward-looking statements. All statements other than statements of historical fact are statements that...

11/03/2023

The EDGE Market Gauges successfully helped farmers beat the average price again during the 2023 growing season, outperforming the average price of the November 2023 Soybeans contract by a wide margin. Thank you to our preferred ag lenders - Kentland Bank, Buckley State Bank and Ge**er State Bank - for your backing of this program for the benefit of local farmers.

If you would like to access this tool for your farm, please reach out to our office at (217) 394-2243 or message us here.

09/25/2023

Tis the season. We want to wish everybody a safe start to harvest!

2023 Crop Insurance Harvest Reminders

- Notify your agent if you believe you have a yield loss on a unit (ideally within 72 hours)

- If you have any old crop left in your bins, an adjuster must complete a bin measurement before adding new grain

- If you have any insured, unharvested crops at the end of the insurance period (December 10th), an adjuster needs to complete an appraisal

Please note the RMA has deferred interest accrual on Multi-Peril Crop Insurance premiums until November 30th.

Please call our office with any questions, we are happy to help.

06/30/2023

https://youtu.be/Lyrk-KCvSqY

Important price levels to pay attention to next week in Corn and Soybeans.

The information presented in this message may include forward-looking statements. All statements other than statements of historical fact are statements that...

06/24/2023

Join us for our annual crop tour! After the crop tour we will go over important crop insurance information, grain marketing updates and agronomic opinions for a crucial part of the growing season. 🌽📈📉

We analyze your farm to make the best agricultural insurance decisions for your farm.

03/16/2023

We want to thank all of our existing and new customers for trusting us with your crop insurance coverages for the 2023 crop year. We are grateful for the opportunity to work with you.

Please leave our agency a review on Google with your experience!

Post a review to our profile on Google

11/11/2022

EDGE Weekly Recap (November 7th –11th)

Illinois producers have reason to be thankful as harvest season wraps up. Profitable commodity prices and record yields statewide have provided what should be a record-breaking revenue year on family farms across the state. On Wednesday, the USDA November WASDE Report was released and projected a record Illinois corn crop of 215 bushels per acre on average, along with a stout 64 bushel per acre soybean crop across the state. On Thursday morning, the November inflation data hit the newswire and was lower than expected at 7.7%, which sent equity markets screaming higher. Grain markets sold off on the news along with improvements in South American weather conditions and the potential extension of the grain corridor deal in Russia/Ukraine. Corn exports have been extremely weak to this point as China has avoided buying US corn due to our expensive currency. Currently, South America has supply of corn and is over $1.00 per bushel cheaper than US corn. When other countries’ corn supplies are exhausted, China will eventually have to turn to the United States for imports – that time has not yet arrived. Domestic processor demand will remain key for corn moving forward. Soybeans have struggled moving higher after last week’s sharp rally. China is reinforcing the COVID-zero policy and has recently had a rise in cases, which has created economic concerns. Soybean domestic processor demand remains strong while current crush margins are over $5 per bushel. The US Dollar has weakened the past two weeks but remains strong. Major headwinds providing pressure on commodities markets moving forward remain the strong US Dollar and the Federal Reserve’s stance on attacking inflation head on with interest rate hikes. 30-Year rates for farm ground are hovering around 9%, where a year or two ago were in the 3-4% range.

November WASDE Report Data

The report was slightly bearish for commodity prices after the USDA raised yield estimates and ending stocks were raised slightly, but not as high as the trade had expected.

US Grain Yield Projections (bu/ac)
- Corn
• Current: 172.3
• Previous: 171.9
• Trade Est.: 171.9
- Soybeans
• Current: 50.2
• Previous: 49.8
• Trade Est.: 49.8

US Grain Carryout (billion bushels)
- Corn
• Current: 1.182
• Previous: 1.172
• Trade Est.: 1.207
- Soybeans
• Current: 0.22
• Previous: 0.20
• Trade Est.: 0.212

January ‘23 Soybeans closed the week at $14.50, down 12 cents per bushel. Price has remained volatile in a trading range between $14.20 and $14.65. Strength indicators are at a neutral/strong reading after the rally from late October. Money Flows are currently bottomed out and are attempting to form a short-term bottom in price. Long-term momentum indicators remain in a positive trend and have a positive reading. Price is currently trading above the 9, 20 and 50-Day Moving Averages. Price does not want a daily close below $14.20. Resistance remains $14.57 followed higher by $14.65. Managed Money data is not released until Monday due to the holiday, but are expected to be holding a good-sized net long position still.

December ’22 Corn closed the week at $6.58, down 23 cents per bushel. Price is trading below the 9, 20 and 50-Day Moving Averages, which is bearish. Strength indicators and Money Flows are in a weak/oversold position. Long-term momentum continues to slide in a downtrend and has a neutral reading. Price supports are $6.56 followed lower by $6.47. Price resistance is $6.65 followed higher by $6.71. Managed Money data will be released on Monday as the CFTC does not report on the holiday. A large, net-long corn position is still expected.

The Harvest Price Guarantees have been set for crop insurance. The Harvest Price for corn is $6.86 per bushel compared to $5.90 in the Spring. Soybeans came in at $13.81 compared to the Spring price of $14.33. If you were close to a soybean yield loss, there is a chance you could have an indemnity payment due to you on a revenue basis. Please let us know as soon as possible if you think you might have a claim! The RMA has given producers more time to pay multi-peril crop insurance premiums this year. Due to drought conditions, they have delayed interest accruing on MPCI premiums from September 30th to November 30th. If you have finished harvest, we are ready to complete production reports to get your APHs updated for next year.

Have a great weekend!

- Dylan Reetz, Agent

AgriSompo North America

The information presented in this message may include forward-looking statements. All statements other than statements of historical fact are statements that could be deemed forward-looking statements. You are strongly cautioned that trades and investments are risky and reliance on any forward-looking statements involves known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Actual results and events may differ materially from information contained in the forward-looking statements as a result of uncontrollable factors. These include, but are not limited to, any changes in the laws, rules and regulations relating to any aspects of the agriculture industry; the Department of Agriculture, the Risk Management Agency, or any other governmental or nongovernmental agency; crop insurance or other similar insurance; general economic, market and business conditions, including capital market developments; weather; geopolitical developments; changes or volatility in interest rates, financial, commodity, or other futures, stock or option prices, foreign exchange rates, equity prices, or other rates or prices; and other factors. You are solely responsible for evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any content provided by EDGE AG INC in this message before making any decisions based on such content. You agree not to hold EDGE AG INC, its affiliates and service providers, and each of their and our respective licensees, successors, and assigns liable for any possible claim for damages arising from any decision you make based on such content or other information made available to you in this message. Past performance data should not be construed as indicative or a guarantee of future results. Please consult with your financial and legal advisor before making any investment or business decisions.

11/11/2022

10/28/2022

EDGE Weekly Recap (October 24th –28th)

US Corn exports continue to disappoint traders as the USDA is expected to lower their export projections. Due to the expensive US Dollar, our corn is $1.50 per bushel more expensive than South American corn on the world market. This is significant enough that Southeastern parts of the United States could start importing corn from Brazil rather than utilizing domestic corn. Soybean exports were the largest in almost a year last week, but price did not rally much due to Chinese economic concerns and the re-election of leader Xi. A record large South American soybean crop is expected and continues to be a major headwind on the soybean market. South America will harvest their soybean crop in January. China will source their soybeans from South America, barring a production issue, which will essentially close the US export window at year end due to South America’s cheaper currency and healthier relationship with China. The US Energy Department announced US crude oil inventories are down 19% from last year while diesel fuel inventories are down 16% versus last year. The 10-Year US Treasury yield is well over 4.00%. Next week, the Federal Reserve is expected to hike interest rates another 75 bps. There are rumblings on Wall Street that the Federal Reserve may change course and pause any more rates hikes after the November meeting.

November ’22 Soybeans closed the week at $13.88, down 5 cents per bushel. Soybeans have consolidated between $13.50 and $14.00 since the beginning of October. Price is trading below the 50-Day Moving Average and above the 9 and 20-Day Moving Averages. Strength and Money Flows are currently neutral. Long-term momentum is in negative territory, however is trying to turn in an upwards direction. Price resistance remains $13.92 followed by $13.97. Price support is $13.83 followed by $13.72. Managed Money bought 8K contracts to increase their net long position to 75K contracts through Tuesday, October 25th.

December ’22 Corn closed the week at $6.81, down 2 cents per bushel. Price is trading below the 9 and 20-Day Moving Averages and above the 50-Day Moving Average. Strength indicators and Money Flows are in a neutral position but are slowly decaying. Long-term momentum continues to slide in a downtrend. Bullish, fundamental news is needed to spark buying volume to keep price elevated. Corn has been rangebound between $6.70 and $7.00 the entire month of October. Price supports are $6.78 followed lower by $6.71. Price resistance is $6.87 followed higher by $6.98. Managed Money bought 10K contracts through Tuesday, October 25th and increased their net long position to 264K contracts.

The RMA has given producers more time to pay multi-peril crop insurance premiums this year. Due to drought conditions, they have delayed interest accruing on MPCI premiums from September 30th to November 30th. Hail insurance and other Private Product premiums are due on November 1st. If you have finished harvest, we are ready to complete production reports to get your APHs updated for next year.

Have a great weekend!

- Dylan Reetz, Agent

AgriSompo North America

10/15/2022

EDGE Weekly Recap (October 10th –14th)

The United States is quickly taking the corn and soybean crop out. On Tuesday, the USDA reported 31% of the corn crop has been harvested and almost half of the soybean crop has been taken out. The October USDA Crop report created some surprise on soybean yield and carryout reductions. Corn yields came in close to trade estimates. Export demand is weighing on US commodity prices. Due to the strong US Dollar, South American corn is offered $1.00 per bushel cheaper on the world market. Foreign importers will source corn from South America until they run out. World importers will source US soybeans at limited levels until January and demand will then shift to South America. The CPI inflation rate for September came in at 8.2% year-over-year, which was hotter than expected. The Federal Reserve is expected to increase the Fed Funds Rate another 1.50% before the end of 2023. The “hot” CPI reports continue to give the Federal Reserve a reason to hike rates. Historically, the CPI inflation rate does not decrease until the Fed Funds Rate is above the inflation rate. Low water levels on the Mississippi River continues to provide volatility in basis markets. Barge freight rates are increasing at a historical pace as barge traffic has been significantly decreased. This has the potential to limit US Soybean exports.

October USDA Crop Report

Corn (bushels per acre)
• Actual – 171.9
• Estimate – 171.8
• Last Year – 176.7
Soybeans (bushels per acre)
• Actual – 49.8
• Estimate – 50.5
• Last Year – 51.7

USDA Grain Carryout

Corn
• Actual – 1.172 Billion
• Estimate – 1.125 Billion
Soybeans
• Actual – 200 Million
• Estimate – 247 Million

November ’22 Soybeans closed the week at $13.83, up 17 cents per bushel. Soybeans were able to rally this week off of support of $13.64 and attempted to attack key resistance levels. Price was not able to close above $14.00 on the week, however traded above 3 different days. Price is currently trading below the 20 and 50-Day Moving Averages and above the 9-Day Moving Average. Money Flows are overbought in the short-term, meaning it would be healthy to see price consolidation in the $13.80 to $14.00 range next week to establish more support. Strength indicators are neutral currently. Long-term momentum is still in a negative posture. Bullish fundamental news is needed to “keep feeding the bull” to get price above key resistance levels between $14.00 - $14.21. Managed Money sold 12K contracts to decrease their net long position to 65K contracts through Tuesday, October 11th. This is the smallest net long position in Soybeans since the last week of December in 2021. Managed Money is the “fuel” to the market and the recent liquidation in Soybean contracts creates some concern.

December ’22 Corn closed the week at $6.91, up 8 cents per bushel. Price is still in an uptrend from the July lows. Corn is trading above $6.87 support and the 9, 20 and 50-Day Moving Averages. However, price traded above $6.98 resistance 5 different days this week and failed to close above. Sooner or later, price will be squeezed to make a move above resistance or below support. Money Flows did peak early in the week, and are in a neutral position. Strength indicators also peaked and are neutral. Price consolidation above support levels is needed for the bulls. Long-term momentum is still trending downward, however in a better spot than Soybeans. Managed Money bought 24K contracts through Tuesday, October 11th and increased their net long position to 267K contracts. The CFTC data continues to show us that Managed Money is more bullish Corn than Soybean futures.

The RMA has given producers more time to pay multi-peril crop insurance premiums this year. Due to drought conditions, they have delayed interest accruing on MPCI premiums from September 30th to November 30th. Billing statements show a due date of September 30th, however, interest will not start accruing until after November 30th. Hail insurance and other Private Product premiums are still due on November 1st.

Have a great weekend!

- Dylan Reetz, Agent

AgriSompo North America