02/13/2023
🏡 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗙𝗲𝗯𝗿𝘂𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝟭𝟯, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟯
𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽 𝗼𝗳 𝗹𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗱 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 👎
Mortgage rates moved higher last week because market sentiment shifted towards more Fed rate hikes to come and the Fed rate possibly peaking at 5.25%. This shift in sentiment was triggered from this month's jobs data and made worse from positive economic data and Fed speakers who talked about raising rates to fight inflation.
𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗯𝗲 𝘃𝗼𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗲 ⚠️
This week we don't know which way rates will move, but we know they will move in reaction to Tuesday's CPI consumer inflation data. Depending on this report, we could see rates continue to creep higher this week or possibly improve slightly.
🗓️ 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁'𝘀 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸:
- Inflation: If Tuesday's CPI consumer inflation report shows that inflation continues to come down it could help stabilize rates. However, if markets don't like the data, it could cause concerns that inflation is back on the rise and that the Fed will have to be more aggressive in fighting inflation at upcoming meetings, and will push mortgage rates up.
- The Fed: Mortgage rates react to anticipated Fed moves, rather than actual Fed moves. Markets are now pricing in more hikes before the Fed stops hiking its policy rate, pushing mortgage rates higher.