Aaron Staufer - Elevations Credit Union

06/03/2026

On Team Staufer our love language is Acts of Service, and nothing brings us more joy than serving our members. Here's what one of our members had to say about their experience
with us. If you have any friends, family or clients who could use the same level of service, we'd love the opportunity to assist.

06/02/2026

Happy Tuesday!

Each Tuesday, I will be sharing a tidbit about the homebuying process. Today's Tuesday Tidbit is: I just received a Property Tax Bill… Do I pay it?

05/30/2026

Rates on a Rollercoaster: Oil Spikes, Cooling Inflation, and a Market Caught in the Middle

Stats & Market Movers of the Week
Push & Pull: Geopolitics vs. Economic Weakness
• Mortgage rates ended the week roughly flat after a volatile stretch
• Rising geopolitical tension (U.S.–Iran) pushed rates higher early
• Weaker economic data helped pull rates back down

➡️ Competing forces kept rates stuck in the middle

Iran Headlines Move Oil (and Rates)
• Renewed tension pushed oil up ~$2/barrel
➤ Higher oil = higher inflation concerns = rates pressured upward

Later in the week: • Ceasefire optimism + potential reopening of supply routes
• Oil fell back below $90

➡️ Helped stabilize bonds — but no final agreement keeps markets cautious

Economic Data Signals Slowing Growth
GDP (Q1 Revision): • 2.0% → 1.6%
Consumer Health: • Personal savings rate fell to 2.6%
➡️ Underlying demand is softening, a positive for bonds

Inflation Data Brings Some Relief
PCE (Fed’s Favorite Inflation Gauge):
• Core: +0.2% MoM (~2.4% annualized) ✅
• Annual:
➤ Headline: 3.8%
➤ Core: 3.3%
Key nuance:
• A temporary shelter spike (+0.5%) skewed readings higher
• Outside of that, inflation looks more contained
➡️ Helped ease pressure on rates

Housing Market Remains Stable
• Refinance activity remains limited due to elevated rates
• Purchase market still driving activity
Outlook:
• Home prices expected:
➤ +2.5% over 1 year
➤ +14% over 5 years
➡️ Tight inventory continues to support pricing

Bottom Line
Markets are balancing:
• Geopolitical risk (pushing rates higher)
• Slowing growth & cooling inflation (pulling rates lower)
➡️ Result: Rates ended little changed after a volatile week

Next Week: Jobs Front and Center
Key labor data ahead:
• Job openings (JOLTS)
• Private payrolls (ADP)
• BLS jobs report
➡️ Labor market strength (or weakness) will be critical for rate direction

05/27/2026

On Team Staufer our love language is Acts of Service, and nothing brings us more joy than serving our members. Here's what one of our members had to say about their experience with us. If you have any friends, family or clients who could use the same level of service, we'd love the opportunity to assist.

05/26/2026

Happy Tuesday!

Each Tuesday, I will be sharing a tidbit about the homebuying process. Today's Tuesday Tidbit is: Can Seasonal Income be used for Qualification?

05/22/2026

Quieter Week but a Busy/Short Week Ahead…

Stats & Market Movers of the Week
Iran Headlines Drive Market Fatigue
• Mortgage rates ended the week higher
• Markets hoped China would help break the U.S.–Iran impasse

Instead, more mixed signals:
• Trump warned Iran to act quickly “or there would be nothing left”
• U.S. paused a planned strike after pressure from Gulf nations
• Possible delay on action — “maybe early next week”

➡️ Markets are growing tired of the cycle:
Hope → disappointment → repeat

Result:
• More pessimism than optimism
• Rates trended worse throughout the week

Builders Show Signs of Optimism
NAHB Housing Data (May):
• Buyer traffic: up
• Sales expectations: up
• Builder confidence: up

Context:
• Coming off very low levels, so gains are relative

Pricing trends:
• 32% of builders cut prices (down from 36%)
• Avg price reduction: 6%
• 61% of sales included incentives

➡️ Builders are feeling cautiously more positive

Bottom Line
• Geopolitical uncertainty continues to dominate
• Markets are losing patience with ongoing Iran developments
• Housing shows early signs of stabilization

➡️ Net effect: rates moved slightly higher

Next Week: Big Data Returns
Short week (Memorial Day Monday), but impactful:
On deck:
• Case‑Shiller Home Price Index
• Consumer Confidence (May)
• PCE Inflation (Fed’s preferred gauge)
➡️ With CPI & PPI running hot, all eyes on PCE

05/22/2026

Aaron Staufer’s May Recap | Middle East MAYhem

Welcome to the middle of May!

Each month I recap what's impacting the markets and financial trends—like inflation, interest rates, and employment data and what that means for you.

In this update, I will discuss the evolving conflict in Iran, inflation, the labor market, the upcoming Fed meeting, and a big month ahead.

Up Next: Eyes are still on inflation and the labor market, the continuing conflict in Iran, and the impact as we transition from the spring to summer buying season. What surprises does the end of May and the month of June have in store? We shall see!

Welcome to the middle of May! Each month I recap what's impacting the markets and financial trends—like inflation, interest rates, and employment data and wh...

05/19/2026

Happy Tuesday!

Each Tuesday, I will be sharing a tidbit about the homebuying process. Today's Tuesday Tidbit is: What is an FHA Loan and what are the Advantages?

05/15/2026

Roasty Toasty Inflation & New Fed Chair Confirmed…

Stats & Market Movers of the Week
• Mortgage rates ended the week higher
• Iran submitted a proposal to the U.S. — quickly rejected as “totally unacceptable”
• Key issue: no nuclear concessions included

Where things stand:
• Ceasefire described as being on “life support”
• U.S. exploring China’s influence to pressure Iran
• Further military action still on the table
➡️ Markets are watching closely — the next few weeks are critical

Inflation Surges — Now Hitting Core Prices
Recent inflation had been mostly headline driven (energy)… until now.
CPI (April):
• Headline: +0.6% MoM
• Annual: 3.3% → 3.8%
• Core: +0.4% MoM
• Annual Core: 2.6% → 2.8%
➡️ Inflation is now spreading beyond energy into broader categories

Wholesale Inflation Explodes
PPI (April):
• Headline: +1.4% MoM
• Core: +1.0% MoM
• Annual headline: 6.0%
• Annual core: 5.2%
➡️ Businesses are feeling major cost pressure
➡️ Higher costs are beginning to flow through to consumers

New Fed Chair Steps In
• Kevin Warsh officially confirmed as Fed Chair
• First meeting coming next month
Challenge ahead:
• Administration wants rate cuts
• Inflation is rising sharply
➡️ Limited flexibility — policy path just got more complicated

Bottom Line
Markets are dealing with:
• Escalating geopolitical tension
• Broadening inflation pressure
• New Fed leadership uncertainty
➡️ All of it pushed rates higher this week

Next Week: Back to Geopolitics
Light economic calendar: • New construction data
➡️ With little data ahead, Iran headlines will drive markets again