Aaron Staufer - Elevations Credit Union

09/01/2026

Happy Tuesday!

Each Tuesday, I will be sharing a tidbit about the homebuying process. Today's Tuesday Tidbit is: Myth Busters! Is there a “Best Time” to buy?

08/31/2026

Aaron Staufer's August Recap | Sayonara to Summer!

Welcome to the end of August!

Each month I recap what's impacting the markets and financial trends—like inflation, interest rates, and employment data and what that means for you.

In this update, I will discuss the continued conflict in Iran, inflation, the labor market, the Jackson Hole Symposium, and a big month ahead.

Up Next: Eyes are still on inflation and the labor market, the continuing conflict in Iran, and the upcoming Fed meeting on 09/16. What surprises does the month of September have in store? We shall see!

Welcome to the end of August!Each month I recap what's impacting ...

08/28/2026

Busy Week! Inflation, Fed, Jobs and Real Estate All In the News…

Stats & Market Movers of the Week

Home Price Appreciation Remains Modest
FHFA Home Price Index (June)
• 0.0% appreciation for the month
• +2.3% over the past 12 months

Case-Shiller Home Price Index
• +1.5% appreciation nationally over the past year
• Denver Metro: -1.24% year-over-year
➡️ Home prices are still rising nationally, but appreciation remains modest and varies by market.

Inflation Stayed in Check
PCE Inflation (July) — the Fed's preferred inflation measure:
• Headline: +0.2% for the month
• Annual: 3.7% (unchanged)
• Core: +0.2% for the month
• Annual Core: 3.3% (unchanged)
➡️ Inflation came in largely as expected and continued to show signs of stabilization.

Labor Market Looks Weaker Than Reported
Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages (Q1 2025 - Q1 2026)
• Jobs revision: -79,000
• Original job gains reported: 273,000
➡️ Nearly 29% of previously reported job gains were revised away.

The data suggests:
• Slower employment growth
• An average of just 16,000 jobs added per month
• A labor market that's weaker than headline reports suggested

Warsh Takes a Hawkish Tone at Jackson Hole
At his first Jackson Hole appearance as Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh struck a more hawkish tone than markets expected.
Key comments:
• Inflation is still not convincingly moving toward the Fed's 2% target
• Recent inflation improvements don't signal meaningful progress yet
• The Fed may still have "work to do"

Markets interpreted that as:
➡️ Less urgency for rate cuts
➡️ Greater potential for future rate hikes
September hike odds: • 35% → 48%

Bottom Line
Markets digested:
• Stable inflation data
• Softer labor market revisions
• A surprisingly hawkish message from Fed Chair Warsh
➡️ The competing signals largely offset one another, leaving mortgage rates little changed for the week.

Next Week: Jobs Take Center Stage
After last month's weak reports, all eyes will be on:
• JOLTS Job Openings
• ADP Employment
• BLS Jobs Report
➡️ Traders will be watching closely to see if labor market weakness is becoming a trend.

08/26/2026

On Team Staufer our love language is Acts of Service, and nothing brings us more joy than serving our members. Here's what one of our members had to say about their experience with us. If you have any friends, family or clients who could use the same level of service, we'd love the opportunity to assist.

08/25/2026

Happy Tuesday!

Each Tuesday, I will be sharing a tidbit about the homebuying process. Today's Tuesday Tidbit is: Renting vs Buying – Advantages to each?

08/21/2026

Iran and the Fed in the Spotlight, Busy Week Ahead…

Stats & Market Movers of the Week

Iran Remains the Market Driver
• Mortgage rates ended the week flat to slightly higher
• The U.S.–Iran agreement officially expired Monday
• Renewed tensions, tougher rhetoric, and limited diplomatic progress kept markets on edge

Oil update:
• Pre-war flow through the Strait of Hormuz: ~20M barrels/day
• Current flow: ~9M barrels/day
• Saudi pipeline routes are helping offset some losses
• Current shortfall: ~5.5M barrels/day
➡️ Supply disruptions are still significant, but not as severe as initially feared.

Late-week developments:
• UAE suspended trade with Iran after missile attacks
• President Trump threatened severe economic consequences if talks don't resume
➡️ Markets see the two sides moving further apart, not closer together.

Builders Continue Pulling Back
July Housing Starts
• Down 12% to an annual pace of 1.24M

Meanwhile:
• Household formation remains near 1.4M per year
➡️ Fewer homes being built than households being formed continues to support home prices.

Fed Hike Odds Continue to Fall
Fed minutes showed:
• Most members favored holding rates steady
• Some still believed higher rates may be needed due to inflation

Since then:
• Inflation data has cooled
• Labor market data has weakened
➡️ Odds of a September rate hike have fallen to 32%.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh also suggested reducing Fed meetings from 8 to 6 per year to allow more time for data analysis and long-term planning.

Bottom Line
Markets remain focused on Iran, with geopolitical uncertainty outweighing most other news.

At the same time:
• Housing supply remains constrained
• Fed hike expectations are easing
• Economic data has softened
➡️ The result: mortgage rates finished the week slightly higher.

Next Week
Key reports ahead:
• Case-Shiller Home Price Index
• FHFA Home Price Index
• PCE Inflation (Fed's preferred inflation measure)
• Jobs revisions
• Warsh speaking at Jackson Hole
➡️ After a quiet week, markets will have plenty to watch.

08/18/2026

Happy Tuesday!

Each Tuesday, I will be sharing a tidbit about the homebuying process. Today's Tuesday Tidbit is: Myth Busters! I can’t buy because I just started a job

08/14/2026

Stats & Market Movers of the Week

Inflation Continues to Cool
• Mortgage rates ended the week slightly lower
• Both CPI and PPI came in cooler than expected for the second straight month.

CPI (Consumer Inflation)
• Headline: +0.1% in July
• Annual: 3.5% → 3.4%
• Core: +0.2% in July
• Annual Core: 2.7% → 2.6%

PPI (Business Inflation)
• Headline: 0.0% in July
• Annual: 5.5% → 4.7%
• Core: +0.2% in July
• Annual Core: 4.7% → 4.2%

➡️ Inflation remains on a cooling trend

Fed Hike Odds Fall
With cooler inflation and last week's soft labor data September Fed hike odds fell from 50% → 32%

Consumers Showing Signs of Strain
Retail Sales (July)
• –0.6% vs. expectations for a slight increase
• Online sales: –2.2%
• Savings rate low at 2.7%
• Increased use of Buy Now, Pay Later programs
➡️ Consumers may be becoming more cautious as budgets tighten.

Bottom Line
Another month of improving inflation data, combined with softer consumer spending, helped ease pressure on rates.

Next Week
A lighter calendar featuring:
• Fed meeting minutes
• New construction data
• Existing home sales data

➡️ Markets will be looking for more clues on the economy, housing market, and the Fed's next move.