Aaron Staufer - Elevations Credit Union

10/16/2026

Short & Busy Week!

Stats & Market Movers of the Week

Inflation Initially Spooked Markets
• Mortgage rates ended the week slightly lower despite hotter-than-expected inflation data.
• Heading into the week, odds of an October 28 Fed rate hike were about 20%.

CPI (September)
• Headline: +0.6% for the month
• Annual: 3.4% → 3.7%
• Core: +0.3% for the month
• Annual Core: 2.4% → 2.6%

PPI (September)
• Headline: +1.3% for the month
• Annual: 5.6% → 6.3%
• Core: +0.7% for the month
• Annual Core: 4.8% → 5.0%
➡️ Inflation came in hotter than expected, pushing Fed hike odds to over 50%.

Bond Markets Find Support
Later in the week, mortgage bonds caught a break.
• Investors grew concerned about the financial pressures facing AI companies.
• Some traders shifted money from riskier AI-related bonds into safer mortgage bonds.
• This increased demand helped offset some of the inflation-driven pressure on rates.
➡️ A flight to safety helped support mortgage bonds and improve rates.

Warsh Comments Ease Rate Hike Fears
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said the economy was performing largely as expected.
• He did not emphasize the hotter inflation readings.
• Markets interpreted his comments as less aggressive than feared.
➡️ October rate hike odds fell sharply from over 50% to roughly 15% by week's end.

Bottom Line
Markets spent the week balancing:
• Hotter inflation data
• Rising Fed hike expectations
• Increased demand for safer bonds
➡️ Despite inflation concerns, improving bond demand and calmer Fed messaging helped mortgage rates finish the week slightly lower.

Next Week
A lighter economic calendar ahead:
• New construction data
➡️ With limited economic data scheduled, markets will continue watching Fed expectations and broader bond market trends.

10/13/2026

Happy Tuesday!

Each Tuesday, I will be sharing a tidbit about the homebuying process. Today's Tuesday Tidbit is: Do I need a Home Inspection? Any Colorado specific things to watch for?

10/09/2026

Super Quiet Week and a Condensed Week Ahead…

Stats & Market Movers of the Week

Bond Yields Continue Climbing
• Mortgage rates ended the week roughly unchanged.
• The 10-Year Treasury climbed above 5.35%, its highest level since 2002.
• Rising yields continue to puzzle markets, as bond demand has remained only modest despite historically attractive returns.

Contributing factors:
• Elevated inflation pressures
• Recent Fed rate hike
• Large federal borrowing needs
• Increased borrowing tied to AI investment
➡️ Some analysts also suspect foreign investors may be reducing their holdings of U.S. bonds.

Late in the week:
• Markets briefly improved after President Trump indicated there would be no military action before the midterms.
➡️ Relief was short-lived, and yields remained elevated.

Renters Still Want to Buy
A recent survey found:
• 87% of renters want to become homeowners
• The down payment was cited as the biggest obstacle
• Many consumers still believe a large down payment is required, despite many programs allowing purchases with far less than 20% down.

Bottom Line
It was a relatively quiet week, but bond markets remained under pressure.
• Treasury yields continued moving higher
• Inflation and government borrowing remain concerns
• Geopolitical tensions continue to create uncertainty
➡️ Mortgage rates finished the week largely unchanged, but elevated bond yields remain a challenge.

Next Week
A holiday-shortened week, but an important one:
• Consumer Price Index (CPI)
• Producer Price Index (PPI)
• Fed Beige Book
➡️ Inflation data will be front and center as markets look for clues on the Fed's next move.

10/02/2026

Fed Received Lots of Data for their Next Meeting…

Stats & Market Movers of the Week

Labor Market Continues to Cool
The week's biggest story was softer labor market data.

JOLTS Report (August)
• Job openings fell to 7.08 million
• Hiring rate increased slightly from 3.2% → 3.3%
• Quits rate remained at 1.9%
➡️ Hiring remains sluggish, and workers still appear hesitant to leave their current jobs.

ADP Employment (September)
• +90,000 jobs vs. +70,000 expected
BLS Jobs Report (September)
• +29,000 jobs added
• Previous two months revised lower by 60,000 jobs
• Unemployment rate increased to 4.2%
➡️ The BLS report pointed to a much weaker labor market than previously believed and casts further doubt on last month's surprisingly strong jobs report.

Inflation Shows Improvement
PCE Inflation (Fed's Preferred Gauge)
• Headline: +0.3% for the month
• Annual: 3.7% → 3.4%
Core PCE
• +0.2% for the month
• Annual: 3.3% → 3.0%
➡️ Inflation moved in the right direction, although part of the improvement was driven by changes in how certain categories are measured.

Economic Growth Remains Resilient
Final Q2 GDP Reading
• 2.2%
Q1 GDP Revision
• 2.1% → 2.5%
➡️ Consumer spending and business investment, particularly in AI-related sectors, continue to support economic growth.

Fed Officials Shift Toward Patience
Several Fed officials commented this week:
• 3 members favored pausing rate hikes for now
• 2 members still supported another hike, potentially at the October meeting
As a result:
• Odds of an October rate hike fell from elevated levels to roughly 17%
➡️ Cooling inflation and weaker jobs data have significantly reduced expectations for near-term Fed action.

Bottom Line
Markets received encouraging inflation data and weaker-than-expected employment reports this week.
• Labor market conditions appear to be softening
• Inflation continues to trend lower
• Rate hike expectations have dropped sharply
➡️ Despite rates finishing the week slightly higher, the overall data was supportive of a less aggressive Fed moving forward.

Next Week
A quieter calendar ahead:
• Fed Minutes from the September meeting
• Several Treasury bond auctions

09/30/2026

Aaron Staufer’s September Recap | Well, That Was Ugly

Welcome to the end of September!

Each month I recap what's impacting the markets and financial trends—like inflation, interest rates, and employment data and what that means for you.

In this update, I will discuss the continued conflict in Iran, inflation, the labor market, the September Fed Meeting, and a big month ahead.

Up Next: Eyes are still on inflation and the labor market, the continuing conflict in Iran, and the upcoming Fed meeting on 10/28. What surprises does the month of October have in store? We shall see!

Welcome to the end of September!Each month I recap what's impacti...

09/25/2026

Well… It Was Supposed to be a Quiet Week…

Stats & Market Movers of the Week

Iran Tensions Push Rates Higher
• Mortgage rates ended the week higher, reaching their highest levels since November 2023.
• Iran outlined 7 conditions to restart negotiations, including ending the war, lifting sanctions, removing the Strait of Hormuz blockade, and accepting its nuclear program.
➡️ Markets viewed the demands as a difficult starting point for meaningful progress.

Brief Optimism Fades
• Following President Trump's address to the UN, reports emerged of constructive discussions between the U.S. and Iran.
• Markets initially improved on hopes of renewed diplomacy.
That optimism didn't last:
• Iran later dismissed the talks as "nothing new."
• Iranian leaders reiterated they would not accept limits on their nuclear program.
➡️ Markets concluded the two sides remain far apart, increasing concerns about prolonged oil supply disruptions and inflation pressures.

Fed Officials Hint More Hikes Could Be Ahead
Following last week's Fed meeting, several Fed officials reinforced a cautious stance on inflation:
• New York Fed President John Williams said more data is needed but another hike this year could be appropriate.
• Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson said further tightening may be warranted to bring inflation under control.
➡️ Odds of an October rate hike currently sit around 64%.

Bottom Line
Markets spent the week focused on geopolitics rather than economic data.
• U.S.–Iran negotiations appear stalled.
• Oil and inflation concerns remain elevated.
• Fed officials continue signaling a willingness to tighten further if inflation doesn't improve.
➡️ Those factors combined to push mortgage rates higher during the week.

Next Week
Key reports ahead:
• PCE Inflation (Fed's preferred inflation gauge)
• JOLTS Job Openings Report
• Final Q2 GDP Reading
➡️ Inflation and labor market data will play a major role in shaping expectations for the Fed's October meeting.

09/22/2026

Happy Tuesday!

Each Tuesday, I will be sharing a tidbit about the homebuying process. Today's Tuesday Tidbit is: What is the minimum Credit Score I need?

09/18/2026

All About That Fed!

Stats & Market Movers of the Week

Fed Delivers Expected Rate Hike
• Mortgage rates ended the week flat to slightly higher.
• The Fed raised the Fed Funds Rate by 0.25% to 3.75%–4.00%.
• Higher short-term rates mean more expensive credit cards, auto loans, HELOCs, and personal loans.
➡️ Mortgage rates weren't directly impacted because markets were focused on the Fed's fight against inflation.

Why Rates Stayed Relatively Stable
• Bond markets generally view Fed hikes as a tool to slow inflation.
• Lower inflation is positive for long-term bonds and mortgage-backed securities.
• Markets also continue to watch for signs of economic slowing, which could eventually help long-term rates.
➡️ The rate hike itself didn't cause mortgage rates to jump.

Warsh Keeps a Hawkish Tone
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized:
• Inflation has not shown meaningful improvement.
• Current financial conditions are not restrictive.
➡️ Markets interpreted his comments as signaling that additional rate hikes remain possible.

Fed Projections Point to More Hikes This Year
The latest Fed "dot plot" showed:
• 12 members expect 1 more hike
• 4 members expect 2 more hikes
• 2 members expect no additional hikes
➡️ The Fed remains focused on inflation, and more tightening could be ahead.

Bottom Line
The Fed delivered the expected rate hike, but markets were more focused on future policy. Hawkish comments from Warsh and Fed projections suggesting additional hikes kept rates under pressure, though mortgage rates finished the week largely unchanged.

Next Week
A quieter calendar ahead.
➡️ Markets will be watching:
• Middle East developments
• Additional Fed commentary

09/15/2026

Happy Tuesday!

Each Tuesday, I will be sharing a tidbit about the homebuying process. Today's Tuesday Tidbit is: Myth Busters! I should only buy if I can afford a 15-year Mortgage

09/11/2026

Short Holiday Week but Important Inflation Readings & a Fed Meeting Ahead!

Stats & Market Movers of the Week

Middle East Tensions Escalate Further
• Mortgage rates ended the week higher as geopolitical tensions intensified.
• Iran and the U.S. exchanged attacks throughout the week, with both sides targeting military and energy-related assets.
• Iran and its allies also expanded attacks on shipping routes and oil infrastructure, including activity in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
➡️ As alternative oil routes come under pressure, concerns over global energy supplies and inflation continue to grow.

Inflation Comes in Hotter Than Expected

Producer Price Index (PPI) – August
• Headline: +0.4% for the month
• Annual: 4.8% → 5.4%
• Core: +0.2% for the month
• Annual Core: 4.3% → 4.6%

Consumer Price Index (CPI) – August
• Headline: +0.4% for the month
• Annual: 3.4% (unchanged)
• Core: +0.3% for the month
• Annual Core: 2.5% → 2.4%
➡️ Overall inflation data came in slightly warmer than expected, adding pressure to rates.

Treasury Bond Buybacks Disappoint Markets
The Treasury has been attempting to stabilize long-term rates through bond buybacks.
Timeline:
• July: Announced $2B in purchases → rates rose
• August: Promised to at least double purchases → rates rose again
• This week: Final program announced at $6B
Markets had hoped for something closer to $10B.
➡️ Investors viewed the program as insufficient, and rates moved higher once again.

Bottom Line
Markets faced three major headwinds this week:
• Escalating conflict in the Middle East
• Slightly hotter inflation readings
• Disappointment over Treasury bond-buyback efforts
➡️ Together, these factors pushed mortgage rates higher by week's end.

Next Week: Fed Decision Takes Center Stage
All eyes are on the September 16 Fed meeting
Before this week:
• Rate hike odds were roughly 50/50

After this week's inflation reports:
• Rate hike odds jumped to approximately 85%
➡️ The Fed's decision and commentary could be the biggest market mover we've seen in weeks.