03/03/2026
4Q25 Fear & Greed Index: What It Means for Multifamily Owners.
I received this information through a newsletter from Marcus & Millichap’s Multifamily Division.
It's a good read for investors wanting some perspective on the current and upcoming markets.
The latest Burns + CRE Daily Fear & Greed Index registered 58, signaling a modestly expanding commercial real estate market
In simple terms:
The market is no longer contracting - but it is not fully rebounding either.
The index measures three core components:
Current investment strategy
Expected investment strategy (next 6 months)
Access to capital
This quarter reflects improving investor confidence and loosening credit conditions — but also continued pricing pressure in multifamily.
Key Multifamily Findings
Multifamily asset values declined ~6% year-over-year, the largest drop among major CRE sectors.
Investors expect slight additional value softening in early 2026.
Access to capital improved across sectors, with more investors reporting easier financing conditions.
73% of multifamily investors anticipate an increase in distressed transactions over the next six months.
While 25% of investors increased exposure this quarter (highest since 4Q23), overall forward-looking multifamily sentiment remains cautious.
The takeaway:
Sentiment is improving faster than pricing fundamentals.
What This Means If You’re Selling
We are entering a transitional phase.
Buyer confidence is rising. Capital markets are gradually loosening. But distress is expected to increase multifamily
For owners considering a sale, that creates a strategic window:
1️⃣Buyer Appetite Is Returning
More investors are increasing exposure, and underwriting assumptions on cap rates are largely flat to slightly compressing. Well-positioned assets are trading.
2️⃣ Distress Has Not Fully Cleared
With a majority of multifamily investors expecting more distressed transactions ahead, additional supply could pressure pricing later in 2026.
3️⃣ Capital Access Is Improving, Selectively
Falling short-term rates (SOFR down ~140 bps since 3Q24) are easing borrower pressure.
That improves buyer leverage capacity, particularly for stabilized Midwest assets.
Strategic Implication for Midwest Owners
Midwestern multifamily has benefited from:
Lower supply volatility
Stable occupancy trends
Measured rent growth
In a market where Sunbelt oversupply and insurance costs have pressured underwriting nationally, stability carries a premium.
If distressed inventory rises and lenders remain conservative, timing becomes critical.
Selling into improving sentiment - before distressed volume accelerates - may preserve pricing leverage.
Our Perspective
This is not a peak pricing market.
It is not a distressed market either.
It is a capital transition market.
Owners who are proactive in evaluating disposition timing — rather than reactive to loan maturities or market headlines — will control outcomes in 2026.
If you would like a valuation analysis incorporating these 4Q25 findings and how they apply specifically to your asset and submarket, we would welcome the conversation.
Read More
Fear & Greed Index | CRE Investor Sentiment
Daniel Bowar
Director of Investments
[email protected]
O: 262.364.1907
C: 262.366.7308
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