CappThesis

CappThesis Technical analysis for professionals

You don’t need to catch tops and bottoms. You just need the middle of the trend with proper risk.One of the most importa...
12/01/2025

You don’t need to catch tops and bottoms. You just need the middle of the trend with proper risk.

One of the most important mindset shifts for active investors is understanding that precision is overrated.

The goal isn’t to identify the exact turning point — it’s to recognize when conditions have improved enough to justify participating in a developing trend. 🎯

For example, this was first evident in late April, when a series of bullish
formations emerged across major indices and key sectors.

We weren’t making calls at the lows. Instead, we observed constructive behavior: breakouts from well-defined consolidations, higher lows forming on multiple timeframes.

These signals did not appear at the bottom — they appeared once the market began to demonstrate structural improvement. And that’s precisely where the opportunity often lies. 📊

In the middle.

The edge comes from acting when the evidence aligns, not when uncertainty is at its peak.

By focusing on confirmation rather than prediction, investors can participate in the “heart” of the trend, where risk is more manageable and the probability of continuation is higher.

This approach removes the pressure to be perfect.

It replaces guesswork with discipline.

And it reinforces a core principle of technical analysis-based trading.

In markets, consistency is far more valuable than precision. 📈

10/06/2025

📈 What’s the best trade for the fourth quarter of 2025 when it seems like EVERYTHING is going up?

Dominic Chu and I discussed two specific ideas last Friday morning CNBC World Wide Exchange: Gold and Bitcoin

Here’s a clip.

👀 All eyes are on Berkshire Hathaway this week as the company is set to reveal its newest investment — its much-talked-a...
08/13/2025

👀 All eyes are on Berkshire Hathaway this week as the company is set to reveal its newest investment — its much-talked-about mystery bet.

📉 After months of severe underperformance, the stock’s technical setup is finally getting interesting.

🎙️ Earlier today, I joined Frank Holland on CNBC to break down the charts and discuss what traders should be watching next.

https://youtu.be/P7NfVITgpIs?si=4ubzGuAk5wjPpHhL

07/16/2025

From the S&P 500’s pause within a bullish trend, to critical support levels in semiconductors, and bullish breakouts in Ethereum and Bitcoin, Frank highlight...

A common question after a sharp stock market bounce is:📈 “How long can it last?”A better question might be:“What needs t...
06/03/2025

A common question after a sharp stock market bounce is:

📈 “How long can it last?”

A better question might be:

“What needs to HAPPEN for the rally to last?”

🔄 One key ingredient: rotation—fresh leadership from lagging sectors.

That could happen in June.

Earlier today, I joined 🎙️ Contessa Brewer on CNBC Worldwide Exchange to highlight two underperforming sectors worth watching.

Link:
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2025/06/02/cappelleri-the-healthcare-sector-could-be-close-to-a-bounce-to-revert-to-the-mean.html

Really enjoyed being a part of the  Spring Summit, along with Jay Woods and Katie Stockton. Thank you to Jess Menton for...
04/15/2025

Really enjoyed being a part of the Spring Summit, along with Jay Woods and Katie Stockton. Thank you to Jess Menton for moderating an insightful and enjoyable discussion.

Why don’t more active investors use Technical Analysis?I ask this question to prospects and new clients all the time. On...
03/09/2025

Why don’t more active investors use Technical Analysis?

I ask this question to prospects and new clients all the time. One common response:

“There are way too many indicators.”

This is understandable. With hundreds available, most don’t know where to start or how to use them effectively.

🤫 But here’s a secret – they’re not that different.

It’s more about knowing WHEN to use them.

📉 For example: We know many stocks have been declining in recent weeks.

📈 We also know those same stocks are up A LOT over the last two years.

This means that many indicators now are flashing the same signal: a short-term oversold condition within a long-term uptrend.

Historically, that’s been a bullish setup.

🟢 We’ve seen this before—2023-24, 2020-21, 2019, 2016-17.

Each time, corrections within an uptrend ultimately resolved higher. The key? The long-term trend stayed intact.

But there’s always a caveat.

🔴 If the broader uptrend is, indeed, cracking, being short-term oversold doesn’t mean much. Remember 2022?

Notice I didn’t even mention the indicator used here (weekly Bollinger Bands)?

Sometimes, it’s not about knowing every single fact—it’s about understanding how the market has behaved under similar circumstances in the past.

02/13/2025
10/28/2024
09/26/2024

Bullish Breakouts: Analyzing Patterns

09/21/2024
It was an honor to be a guest of Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese on their Facts vs. Feelings Podcast at the Carson Group ...
09/12/2024

It was an honor to be a guest of Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese on their Facts vs. Feelings Podcast at the Carson Group Excell Conference. They just crossed the 100-episode mark, and they’re just getting started.

CappThesis was proud to be among the exhibitors during this fantastic event in Orlando, FL.

Last but not least, Sonu’s new hat looks great on him.

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