10/11/2026
More Market insights from IWM Founder + CEO, Chief Portfolio Strategist, Michael Bellody ⬇️⬇️⬇️
I’ve been writing about this since our 2023 Market Outlook.
📅 The Magic of the Midterm is upon us.
Here’s the pattern. Midterm election years are historically the most volatile of the four-year presidential cycle. The first half is choppy because political uncertainty surrounding the midterms creates an elevated level of political risk that markets struggle to price. But as we get closer to election day, the likely outcome becomes clearer, that political risk wanes, and the near-inevitable result of gridlock takes hold — markets love gridlock even when voters hate it.
The most consistently positive period for stocks in history is the 9-month stretch from October of a midterm year through June of the following year. In the U.S., that period has been positive approximately 95% of the time. Globally, markets as a whole have been positive 100% of the time.
We just entered October.
And it gets even more compelling when you look at what comes next. The third year of a presidential term — 2027 — has not been negative since 1939. Why? Because legislative risk remains low.
You may recall that something fairly significant was happening in the world in 1939. A little conflict called World War II was getting underway. And even then — even facing the onset of the most catastrophic global conflict in human history — the S&P 500 was only down 0.9%. That is how powerful this trend is. Nearly 90 consecutive years of positive third-year returns. Through wars, recessions, pandemics, financial crises, and everything in between.
The S&P 500 is up 12.81% year to date despite a Fed rate hike, an Iran conflict, oil at $100, and a 10-year Treasury at 5.28%. This market has absorbed everything thrown at it and is still standing strong.
Now the historically strongest tailwind of the entire four-year cycle kicks in.
The rest of 2026 could be very, very good — which means the overall year could be spectacular. And 2027 is likely to keep that strength going and might even get stronger.
If you haven’t read my 2026 Market Outlook, DM me and I’ll make sure you get it.