Tracy Guenther - Mortgage Broker with C2 Financial Corporation

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Tracy Guenther - Mortgage Broker with C2 Financial Corporation

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Mortgage Broker at C2 Financial | NMLS 1928364 / 135622
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C2 Financial Corporation’s NMLS Consumer Access page:
https://www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org/EntityDetails.aspx/COMPANY/135622

11/03/2026

Market Update | Week of November 2

Last Week:
Rates improved slightly. The Fed held its rate steady and the latest inflation report came in about where everyone expected. A quick reminder that the Fed's rate and mortgage rates are not the same thing. Mortgage rates follow the bond market.

This Week:
Rates started the week a little better because oil prices dropped as worries about military action with Iran eased. That could continue, but it is a busy week with several jobs reports, Tuesday's midterm elections, and Iran headlines, so rates could move in either direction.

The Takeaway
Two things to watch. Friday's jobs report is the big one. Weaker hiring could help rates, and stronger numbers could push them up. Oil prices matter too. If they keep falling, rates have room to improve. If tensions flare back up, that could reverse quickly.

10/20/2026

Market Update | Week of October 19

Last Week:
Rates improved last week after hitting their highest levels in early October. Interestingly the improvement was driven in part by a selloff in AI stocks, which sent investors moving money into bonds for safety. Mortgage bonds benefited from that shift and rates came down a bit even though inflation came in higher than expected.

This Week:
The improvement may be short lived. Rates started stalling on Friday and continued losing ground to start this week. There is not much economic data coming out to anchor things so headlines will drive more of the movement. Oil prices are creeping back up too, though efforts to temporarily suspend federal and state gas taxes have helped limit some of that impact on rates.

The Takeaway
Rates are still elevated and this week leans toward creeping higher rather than improving further. Not dramatic movement expected but worth watching if you have buyers close to locking.

09/29/2026

Market Update | Week of September 28

Last Week:
Rates hit new 2026 highs last week and were just as volatile as expected. Bond yields reached 20-year highs and oil prices stayed elevated, both pushing mortgage rates higher. Not a fun week for rates.

This Week:
The outlook is not much better. Rates are likely to keep climbing, driven by rising energy costs and growing speculation that the Fed will raise rates two more times before the end of the year. The one scenario that could help is positive news out of the Middle East that brings oil prices down, but the odds of that this week are not great.

The Takeaway
Two things to watch. Oil prices and Friday's jobs report are both in play this week. A strong jobs report would increase the likelihood of more Fed hikes and push rates higher. A weaker report could take some pressure off. In the meantime if you have buyers who are close to making a move this is a good week to have a strategy conversation rather than waiting to see where rates land.

09/22/2026

Market Update | Week of September 21

Last Week:
Rates moved higher again. The Fed raised its policy rate as expected and mortgage rates had already priced that in, but the bigger issue was the signal that more hikes could be coming later this year. That pushed rates up further even after the Fed announcement. They did pull back a little from their worst levels by end of week but still finished higher overall.

This Week:
Hard to predict. Rates could swing day to day with a lot of different headlines in play including oil prices, Middle East developments, and the UN General Assembly. There is actually some cautious optimism on oil. Prices are starting the week lower after news that the Saudi pipeline could reopen and that ships are beginning to move through the Strait of Hormuz again, though more slowly than usual. If that progress continues rates could get a little relief. If things escalate again rates will feel it.

The Takeaway
Rates are elevated and volatile right now. Not a reason to sit still but a good reason to have a strategy conversation before writing offers or making pricing decisions. Which leads me to this week's tip.

09/15/2026

Market Update | Week of September 14

Last Week:
Rates moved quite a bit higher. Oil prices kept climbing which added to inflation concerns, and both the consumer and wholesale inflation reports showed prices picking back up. Not the direction anyone was hoping for.

This Week:
This is an important week and the honest outlook is not great for rates. The Fed is expected to raise its policy rate to fight inflation and mortgage rates have already started pricing that in. Here is the interesting twist though, if the Fed raises rates as expected it could actually help mortgage rates stabilize because markets have already prepared for it. What would hurt rates is if the Fed decides not to raise them, because that would signal that inflation may go unchecked and markets would react poorly. So this week a Fed rate hike is likely the better outcome for mortgage rates. Oil prices and Middle East headlines remain the other wildcard.

The Takeaway
Rates are at or near their highest levels of the year and could push higher still depending on what the Fed does Wednesday and what happens with oil prices. If you have buyers under contract who have not locked yet this is a week worth paying close attention to.

09/01/2026

Market Update | Week of August 31

Last Week:
Rates stayed pretty stable through most of August but ended the week near their highest levels of the month. Most borrowers would not see a change in the actual rate but might notice a difference in the points or credits needed to get there.

This Week:
Rates could tick higher. Fed Chair Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole last week raised concerns that the Fed might raise rates as soon as September to fight stubborn inflation. There is even some talk of two hikes before the end of the year. Oil prices are also rising again with tensions in the Middle East picking back up. On top of that we have several jobs reports coming out this week with Friday's BLS report being the biggest one. Weak job numbers would help rates. Strong numbers would make a September Fed hike more likely and push rates higher.

The Takeaway
A lot in play this week. Friday's jobs report is the one to watch most closely. Until the Middle East situation resolves and inflation cools more convincingly, it is hard to see rates making any meaningful move lower from here.

08/18/2026

Market Update | Week of August 17

Last Week:
Rates started the week moving higher but recovered after both the consumer and wholesale inflation reports for July came in better than expected. Prices moderated across a range of goods and services which made a September Fed rate hike feel a lot less likely. That was enough to bring rates back down and end the week slightly improved.

This Week:
Not much economic data on the calendar this week so markets will mostly be reacting to headlines. Rates are not expected to make any big moves in either direction but could drift slightly higher. The two things to watch are oil prices and Fed expectations. If Brent crude stays below $90 a barrel that will help keep rates from climbing. And markets have now shifted their expectations for a Fed rate hike from September to December which has taken some pressure off rates since markets tend to price in Fed moves well in advance.

The Takeaway
A quieter week with no major data expected. Rates are in a bit of a holding pattern right now. The Middle East situation remains the wild card and any movement on the Strait of Hormuz in either direction would likely move rates accordingly.

08/11/2026

Market Update | Week of August 10

Last Week:
Rates moved lower last week and the biggest driver was Friday's jobs report which came in well below expectations. The economy actually lost jobs rather than adding them. When the job market weakens like that it makes it much less likely the Fed will raise rates next month and mortgage rates responded positively to that news. The Strait of Hormuz is still closed and oil prices stayed elevated but the jobs data was enough to push rates lower anyway.

This Week:
Rates actually started the week on a rough note today. Bonds drifted lower through the day and oil prices are creeping back up near $90 a barrel as hopes for a Middle East resolution continue to fade. Wednesday's consumer inflation report is still the one to watch and forecasts are expecting it to show some cooling, which would help. But with oil prices moving in the wrong direction again it is hard to see a clear path to meaningfully better rates until the Strait of Hormuz situation gets resolved.

The Takeaway
Inflation data Wednesday and Thursday is the best near term hope for some rate relief this week. If those numbers come in favorably rates could stabilize or improve slightly. But the Middle East remains the bigger obstacle and that one does not have a clear end in sight yet.

07/28/2026

Market Update | Week of July 27

Last Week:
Not great news on rates. They moved higher last week and hit their worst levels of the year for a lot of lenders. Two things drove it. Oil prices spiked again and markets started speculating that the Fed might raise rates at this week's meeting or at the September meeting. When either of those things happen, mortgage rates feel it pretty fast.

This Week:
There is actually some cautious optimism heading into this week. Military strikes in the Middle East have paused and oil prices have come down a bit as a result. That is a good sign for rates. The big moment this week is Wednesday when the Fed meets and Fed Chair Warsh holds his press conference. He has said he will not give markets any hints about future moves, which means traders will be reading into every word he says. That could create some swings in either direction.

The Takeaway
Two things to watch. Oil prices and whatever comes out of Wednesday's Fed meeting. Rates could improve if the Middle East stays calm and Warsh says nothing alarming. But this week has enough moving pieces that it could go either way.

07/06/2026

Market Update | Week of July 6

Last Week:
Rates crept up slightly even though the jobs report came in weaker than expected. It was a small move and nothing alarming. The holiday shortened week kept things pretty calm overall.

This Week:
This should be a quieter week for rates. No major data expected and nothing pointing toward a big move in either direction. Rates are predicted to stay right around where they have been for the past couple of weeks.

The Takeaway
Two things worth watching. The Fed is now expected to raise rates at least once this year, possibly as soon as September. If that expectation shifts to July it could put upward pressure on mortgage rates. Also worth noting that oil prices are back near pre-conflict levels which means that tailwind for rates has mostly run its course.

Address

Bozeman, MT
59718

Telephone

+14062241060

Website

http://www.yourhomeloanguide.com/

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