Tracy Guenther - Mortgage Broker with C2 Financial Corporation

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Tracy Guenther - Mortgage Broker with C2 Financial Corporation

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09/01/2026

Market Update | Week of August 31

Last Week:
Rates stayed pretty stable through most of August but ended the week near their highest levels of the month. Most borrowers would not see a change in the actual rate but might notice a difference in the points or credits needed to get there.

This Week:
Rates could tick higher. Fed Chair Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole last week raised concerns that the Fed might raise rates as soon as September to fight stubborn inflation. There is even some talk of two hikes before the end of the year. Oil prices are also rising again with tensions in the Middle East picking back up. On top of that we have several jobs reports coming out this week with Friday's BLS report being the biggest one. Weak job numbers would help rates. Strong numbers would make a September Fed hike more likely and push rates higher.

The Takeaway
A lot in play this week. Friday's jobs report is the one to watch most closely. Until the Middle East situation resolves and inflation cools more convincingly, it is hard to see rates making any meaningful move lower from here.

08/18/2026

Market Update | Week of August 17

Last Week:
Rates started the week moving higher but recovered after both the consumer and wholesale inflation reports for July came in better than expected. Prices moderated across a range of goods and services which made a September Fed rate hike feel a lot less likely. That was enough to bring rates back down and end the week slightly improved.

This Week:
Not much economic data on the calendar this week so markets will mostly be reacting to headlines. Rates are not expected to make any big moves in either direction but could drift slightly higher. The two things to watch are oil prices and Fed expectations. If Brent crude stays below $90 a barrel that will help keep rates from climbing. And markets have now shifted their expectations for a Fed rate hike from September to December which has taken some pressure off rates since markets tend to price in Fed moves well in advance.

The Takeaway
A quieter week with no major data expected. Rates are in a bit of a holding pattern right now. The Middle East situation remains the wild card and any movement on the Strait of Hormuz in either direction would likely move rates accordingly.

08/11/2026

Market Update | Week of August 10

Last Week:
Rates moved lower last week and the biggest driver was Friday's jobs report which came in well below expectations. The economy actually lost jobs rather than adding them. When the job market weakens like that it makes it much less likely the Fed will raise rates next month and mortgage rates responded positively to that news. The Strait of Hormuz is still closed and oil prices stayed elevated but the jobs data was enough to push rates lower anyway.

This Week:
Rates actually started the week on a rough note today. Bonds drifted lower through the day and oil prices are creeping back up near $90 a barrel as hopes for a Middle East resolution continue to fade. Wednesday's consumer inflation report is still the one to watch and forecasts are expecting it to show some cooling, which would help. But with oil prices moving in the wrong direction again it is hard to see a clear path to meaningfully better rates until the Strait of Hormuz situation gets resolved.

The Takeaway
Inflation data Wednesday and Thursday is the best near term hope for some rate relief this week. If those numbers come in favorably rates could stabilize or improve slightly. But the Middle East remains the bigger obstacle and that one does not have a clear end in sight yet.

07/28/2026

Market Update | Week of July 27

Last Week:
Not great news on rates. They moved higher last week and hit their worst levels of the year for a lot of lenders. Two things drove it. Oil prices spiked again and markets started speculating that the Fed might raise rates at this week's meeting or at the September meeting. When either of those things happen, mortgage rates feel it pretty fast.

This Week:
There is actually some cautious optimism heading into this week. Military strikes in the Middle East have paused and oil prices have come down a bit as a result. That is a good sign for rates. The big moment this week is Wednesday when the Fed meets and Fed Chair Warsh holds his press conference. He has said he will not give markets any hints about future moves, which means traders will be reading into every word he says. That could create some swings in either direction.

The Takeaway
Two things to watch. Oil prices and whatever comes out of Wednesday's Fed meeting. Rates could improve if the Middle East stays calm and Warsh says nothing alarming. But this week has enough moving pieces that it could go either way.

07/06/2026

Market Update | Week of July 6

Last Week:
Rates crept up slightly even though the jobs report came in weaker than expected. It was a small move and nothing alarming. The holiday shortened week kept things pretty calm overall.

This Week:
This should be a quieter week for rates. No major data expected and nothing pointing toward a big move in either direction. Rates are predicted to stay right around where they have been for the past couple of weeks.

The Takeaway
Two things worth watching. The Fed is now expected to raise rates at least once this year, possibly as soon as September. If that expectation shifts to July it could put upward pressure on mortgage rates. Also worth noting that oil prices are back near pre-conflict levels which means that tailwind for rates has mostly run its course.

06/30/2026

Market Update | Week of June 29

Last Week:
Rates moved higher early in the week but came back down by Friday, ending slightly lower overall. Oil prices dropped which helped. Inflation actually posted its biggest jump in three years, but markets were not too worried about it because they expect inflation to cool off now that the deal with Iran is in place.

This Week:
This is a big week for labor market data with several reports coming out Tuesday through Thursday. Since it is also a holiday shortened week, all of that data getting packed together could lead to bigger swings in rates than usual. If the numbers show a strong job market, that could make markets think the Fed is more likely to raise rates later this summer, which would put upward pressure on rates.

The Takeaway
Watch the jobs data this week, especially with markets closing early Thursday and fully closed Friday for the holiday. Less trading time can sometimes mean bigger reactions when news does come out. If you have buyers locking in soon, timing could matter more than usual this week.

06/15/2026

Market Update | Week of June 15

Last Week:
Rates started the week a little higher but finished lower. News surfaced late in the week that a peace deal with Iran was close and markets responded quickly. Even though both consumer and wholesale inflation came in higher, markets had largely expected it so rates did not react much to those numbers. When something is already priced in it tends not to move the needle.

This Week:
A peace agreement has been reached and the Strait of Hormuz is expected to reopen, though it has not fully happened yet. Oil prices have already started to come down on the news and that is good for rates. The other big moment this week is Wednesday when new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh holds his very first Fed meeting and press conference. Markets will be listening closely to get a read on where he plans to take things. That could create some movement in either direction. Also worth noting, markets will be closed Friday for Juneteenth.

The Takeaway
Two things to watch this week. First, whether the Strait of Hormuz actually reopens as expected. If it does rates should continue to improve over the coming weeks. Second, what Chair Warsh says Wednesday. His first press conference sets the tone and markets will react to his words carefully.

06/09/2026

Market Update | Week of June 8

Last Week:
Rates moved higher and the biggest jump came on Friday. The jobs report came in way stronger than expected with more than twice the new jobs that were forecast. A strong job market makes it more likely the Fed will raise rates to fight inflation and mortgage rates reacted quickly to that news.

This Week:
A lot still in play. Iran peace talks are dragging on with no resolution and rates are still moving closely with oil prices and Middle East headlines. We also have consumer and wholesale inflation data coming out this week which could push rates higher if the numbers are not good.

The Takeaway
Two things to watch this week. First, anything out of the Middle East. Progress on a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz would help rates and the market is paying close attention. Second, inflation data. Consumer and wholesale numbers both come out this week and if inflation looks like it is still climbing, rates will likely respond by moving higher.

06/01/2026

Market Update | Week of June 1

Last Week:
Rates moved lower for the second week in a row. It was a modest improvement but improvement is improvement. Peace talks with Iran are still dragging on without a final resolution and right now that is really the only thing the market seems to care about. Everything else is taking a back seat.

This Week:
Buckle up a little. This morning there were already unconfirmed reports that Iran might walk away from negotiations and fully block the Strait of Hormuz again. That pushed rates higher before the week even really got started. We do have some big labor market data coming out this week but honestly it is probably not going to move the needle as much as whatever happens in the Middle East. Rates could swing day to day and even within the same day depending on headlines.

The Takeaway
Two weeks of improvement is encouraging but this week feels less predictable. If you have buyers under contract or getting close, keep them close to me. In a week like this one, timing and communication matter a lot.

05/11/2026

Market Update | Week of May 11

Last Week:
Rates bounced around quite a bit last week as news came in about peace talks with Iran. But when the dust settled on Friday, rates ended up right about where they started. The jobs numbers that came out last week showed the economy is still holding up pretty well which sounds like good news and it is, but a strong job market also means the Fed is less likely to cut rates anytime soon. So it is a bit of a mixed bag.

This Week:
Rates are still elevated and the honest truth is they are not likely to come down in any meaningful way until the situation with Iran gets resolved and the Strait of Hormuz reopens. That is still the biggest thing to watch. We also have inflation data coming out this week, both wholesale and consumer numbers. Normally that would be the headline mover but right now the Middle East is driving the bus and everything else is taking a back seat.

The Takeaway
Rates held steady last week which is at least better than moving higher. Progress on the Iran negotiations would change things quickly. Until then, the best thing buyers can do is stay informed & stay ready.

Address

Bozeman, MT
59718

Telephone

+14062241060

Website

http://www.yourhomeloanguide.com/

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