Tracy Guenther - Mortgage Broker with C2 Financial Corporation

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Tracy Guenther - Mortgage Broker with C2 Financial Corporation

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📍Montana C2 Financial NMLS1928364

06/15/2026

Market Update | Week of June 15

Last Week:
Rates started the week a little higher but finished lower. News surfaced late in the week that a peace deal with Iran was close and markets responded quickly. Even though both consumer and wholesale inflation came in higher, markets had largely expected it so rates did not react much to those numbers. When something is already priced in it tends not to move the needle.

This Week:
A peace agreement has been reached and the Strait of Hormuz is expected to reopen, though it has not fully happened yet. Oil prices have already started to come down on the news and that is good for rates. The other big moment this week is Wednesday when new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh holds his very first Fed meeting and press conference. Markets will be listening closely to get a read on where he plans to take things. That could create some movement in either direction. Also worth noting, markets will be closed Friday for Juneteenth.

The Takeaway
Two things to watch this week. First, whether the Strait of Hormuz actually reopens as expected. If it does rates should continue to improve over the coming weeks. Second, what Chair Warsh says Wednesday. His first press conference sets the tone and markets will react to his words carefully.

06/09/2026

Market Update | Week of June 8

Last Week:
Rates moved higher and the biggest jump came on Friday. The jobs report came in way stronger than expected with more than twice the new jobs that were forecast. A strong job market makes it more likely the Fed will raise rates to fight inflation and mortgage rates reacted quickly to that news.

This Week:
A lot still in play. Iran peace talks are dragging on with no resolution and rates are still moving closely with oil prices and Middle East headlines. We also have consumer and wholesale inflation data coming out this week which could push rates higher if the numbers are not good.

The Takeaway
Two things to watch this week. First, anything out of the Middle East. Progress on a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz would help rates and the market is paying close attention. Second, inflation data. Consumer and wholesale numbers both come out this week and if inflation looks like it is still climbing, rates will likely respond by moving higher.

06/01/2026

Market Update | Week of June 1

Last Week:
Rates moved lower for the second week in a row. It was a modest improvement but improvement is improvement. Peace talks with Iran are still dragging on without a final resolution and right now that is really the only thing the market seems to care about. Everything else is taking a back seat.

This Week:
Buckle up a little. This morning there were already unconfirmed reports that Iran might walk away from negotiations and fully block the Strait of Hormuz again. That pushed rates higher before the week even really got started. We do have some big labor market data coming out this week but honestly it is probably not going to move the needle as much as whatever happens in the Middle East. Rates could swing day to day and even within the same day depending on headlines.

The Takeaway
Two weeks of improvement is encouraging but this week feels less predictable. If you have buyers under contract or getting close, keep them close to me. In a week like this one, timing and communication matter a lot.

05/11/2026

Market Update | Week of May 11

Last Week:
Rates bounced around quite a bit last week as news came in about peace talks with Iran. But when the dust settled on Friday, rates ended up right about where they started. The jobs numbers that came out last week showed the economy is still holding up pretty well which sounds like good news and it is, but a strong job market also means the Fed is less likely to cut rates anytime soon. So it is a bit of a mixed bag.

This Week:
Rates are still elevated and the honest truth is they are not likely to come down in any meaningful way until the situation with Iran gets resolved and the Strait of Hormuz reopens. That is still the biggest thing to watch. We also have inflation data coming out this week, both wholesale and consumer numbers. Normally that would be the headline mover but right now the Middle East is driving the bus and everything else is taking a back seat.

The Takeaway
Rates held steady last week which is at least better than moving higher. Progress on the Iran negotiations would change things quickly. Until then, the best thing buyers can do is stay informed & stay ready.

05/04/2026

Market Update | Week of May 4

Last Week:
Rates moved higher again last week. The Strait of Hormuz is still closed and oil prices spiked to their highest level in over three years. Think of it this way, when it costs more to move oil around the world, the price of pretty much everything goes up. That is inflation. And inflation is one of the biggest things that pushes mortgage rates higher. The Fed met last week too but did not say anything that really moved the needle either way.

This Week:
Rates are likely to stay elevated until something changes in the Middle East. That is really the bottom line right now. We do have some jobs data coming out throughout the week and Friday's report is the one most likely to cause some movement. Keep an eye on that one.

The Takeaway
The situation with Iran is still unresolved and that is the thing holding rates back the most right now. Buyers should not feel stuck but they should feel informed. If you have someone ready to move, let's talk through what a smart strategy looks like in this market.

04/27/2026

Market Update | Week of April 27

Last Week:
After three weeks in a row of rates moving lower, we hit a small bump last week. Rates ticked slightly higher. The situation with Iran stalled out and the Strait of Hormuz stayed closed.

This Week:
This week has more moving pieces than usual. The Fed is meeting and while nobody expects them to change rates, what Fed Chair Powell says at his press conference could move markets. On top of that the Middle East situation is still unresolved. Until the Strait of Hormuz reopens and negotiations start moving again, it is hard to see rates improving much from here. Expect some day to day swings.

The Takeaway
One step back after three steps forward. Rates are still in a better place than they were a few weeks ago but this week has some uncertainty baked in. If your buyers are under contract or getting close, now is a good time to remind them to stay in close contact with me.

04/20/2026

Market Update | Week of April 20

Last Week:
Good news three weeks running. Rates continued to move lower, with the biggest drop coming Friday after Iran announced it would fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic. That single headline had a noticeable impact. Rates are still higher than they were before the conflict began, but they are well below where they were just a few weeks ago.

This Week:
There is a reasonable chance rates continue to improve if progress toward a final resolution holds. That said, expect some day to day movement while negotiations are still ongoing. Economic data is light this week and not expected to play much of a role. The Middle East situation remains the one to watch.

The Takeaway
Three straight weeks of improvement is encouraging. Rates are still elevated but the direction has shifted. If you have buyers who went quiet when things looked bleak a few weeks ago, this is a good week to check back in and keep the conversation going.

04/14/2026

Market Update | Week of April 13

Last Week:
Rates went down for the second week in a row, which is good news. That said, they're still higher than they were back in February, before tensions with Iran started affecting the markets. With inflation ticking up, partly driven by gas and oil prices, it may be a while before we see rates at those levels again.

This Week:
Expect some volatility. The week opened with a breakdown in US - Iran negotiations and a blockade of Iranian ports, so markets are watching closely. If things escalate, rates could move. If things settle, we could end the week right where we started or even slightly better. Economic data is light this week, so geopolitics is really the story.

The Takeaway
Rates are in a decent place right now and buyers who are ready shouldn't be waiting for perfect. Volatile weeks can move quickly in either direction. Being ready matters.

04/07/2026

Market Update | Week of April 6

Last Week:
Rates finally dropped for the first time in weeks. Two things helped make that happen. There was talk that the conflict with Iran might be coming to an end, which calmed nerves in the financial markets. And earlier fears that the Fed might actually raise interest rates this year started to fade. When those two things happened, mortgage rates had room to come down a little.

This Week:
There is a chance rates continue to improve or at least hold where they landed. An inflation report comes out this week but is not expected to shake things up much. The situation in the Middle East is still the one to watch. If a ceasefire is announced, rates will likely improve further. If things heat up again, expect some bumps.

The Takeaway
Rates improved last week, which is encouraging after several tough weeks. They are still elevated, so this is not a "rates are great" moment. But if you have buyers who have been watching and waiting, it is worth a quick check in just to keep the conversation going.

03/31/2026

Market Update | Week of March 30

Last Week:
Rates moved higher again last week. Ongoing conflict in the Middle East, especially around the Strait of Hormuz, raised concerns about global energy supply. When energy prices rise, it increases inflation concerns, which can push mortgage rates higher. At the same time, markets are starting to consider the possibility that the Fed may need to raise rates later this year instead of cutting them.

This Week:
Rates are likely to move around more than usual. There are several labor market reports coming out, and markets are also reacting to ongoing global tensions and Fed expectations. We could see some swings depending on the news.

The Takeaway:
There are a lot of moving pieces right now. Rates aren't being driven by one thing, but by a combination of global events, inflation concerns, and shifting expectations around the Fed.

Address

Bozeman, MT
59718

Telephone

+14062241060

Website

http://www.yourhomeloanguide.com/

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