09/03/2026
Interest rates are moving, bond yields are reacting, and markets are once again trying to handicap what the Federal Reserve will do next.
There is nothing wrong with paying attention. Interest rates affect borrowing costs, bond prices, business investment, valuations, and eventually the economy. But knowing that rates matter is very different from knowing where they go next.
For investors, that distinction matters. A financial plan built around one forecast—rates falling, inflation disappearing, the Fed cutting, or the economy accelerating—can become fragile very quickly when reality takes a different path.
A better framework is to treat interest rates as an input rather than an instruction. Maintain appropriate liquidity, understand the role of each investment, rebalance deliberately, and build a portfolio capable of functioning across multiple economic environments.
The goal is not to predict every turn. It is to avoid requiring the prediction to be right.
Markets can and do decline. Not individualized advice.