Melissa Valenzuela Cotton NMLS: 469793

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2026 off to the best start❤️☀️🛥️
01/13/2026

2026 off to the best start❤️☀️🛥️

Now on Airbnb🏡A quiet, lakefront cottage on Panther Pond in Maine’s Sebago Lake Region. Two bedrooms, modern kitchen, do...
01/06/2026

Now on Airbnb🏡
A quiet, lakefront cottage on Panther Pond in Maine’s Sebago Lake Region. Two bedrooms, modern kitchen, dock access, and space to slow down. Mornings on the water, evenings on the deck, and wildlife just outside your door.
Available on Airbnb, message me if interested!

We’ve headed into the new year with a much better vibe than most people expected. The mortgage and housing markets ended...
01/06/2026

We’ve headed into the new year with a much better vibe than most people expected. The mortgage and housing markets ended 2025 on a strong note, and for the first time in a while, multiple things are moving in the right direction at the same time.

Mortgage bonds finished the year at their highest levels of 2025, and 30 year fixed rates hit their lowest point of the year. That combo helps affordability and boosts confidence for buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines.

One of the biggest improvements is how much tighter mortgage pricing has become. Back in late 2023, the gap between the 10 year Treasury and mortgage rates was extremely wide because of uncertainty and risk. Now that gap has narrowed significantly, which tells us investors are feeling more comfortable and mortgage pricing is becoming more efficient again.

We’re already seeing this show up in real activity. Pending home sales just posted their strongest numbers in almost three years. Buyers are slowly re entering the market as rates stabilize, even before inventory improves or rates drop further. Since pending sales usually lead future closings, this is a quiet but encouraging sign.

Big picture, the trend lines are finally aligning. Lower rates, better bond performance, tighter spreads, and improving housing data all point to a healthier market reset as we move into 2026. It’s not perfect yet, but it’s a much more constructive setup than where we started last year.

As we kick off the first full week of the new year, the market will be watching jobs data, housing reports, business activity, and consumer confidence closely. These will help determine whether rates continue improving or take a breather. Either way, we’re entering 2026 on much stronger footing, and that’s something we haven’t been able to say in a while.

Last holiday shortened week still delivered some big surprises especially a stronger than expected Q3 GDP report. On the...
12/29/2025

Last holiday shortened week still delivered some big surprises especially a stronger than expected Q3 GDP report. On the surface the economy looks like it’s growing fast but there’s more nuance behind the headline.

GDP came in at a strong 4.3 percent which is the fastest pace we’ve seen in about two years. That sounds impressive but it comes with an asterisk. Because of the government shutdown in October and November some of the usual data was delayed so parts of this report rely on estimates and assumptions. In simple terms the number is solid but not as clean as normal.

Most of that growth came from consumer spending. People are still spending on everyday services like healthcare travel and professional services along with goods like vehicles recreation and prescriptions. Exports were also higher meaning US companies sold more overseas and government spending helped too especially at the state and local level and on defense.

Where things softened was business investment. Companies pulled back on inventory which can be a sign they’re being more cautious. Imports also fell which technically boosts GDP but can point to slower demand at home.

Why this matters for rates and housing is important. The economy is still growing but not in a way that screams overheating. Business caution and easing inflation pressures support the idea that we don’t need aggressively high interest rates long term. That’s a constructive backdrop for mortgage rates heading into 2026.

Another interesting signal came from the bond market. Large institutional investors placed unusually big bets on the 10 year Treasury expecting yields to stabilize or move lower after the Fed’s January meeting. That kind of money moving into the market often signals confidence about where rates are headed next even if day to day moves stay choppy.

Looking ahead markets will be watching inflation data closely. With the Fed in wait and see mode every new report matters more. If inflation continues to cool the overall setup for mortgage rates remains positive even if we see short term volatility.

For most of this year, buyers and mortgage pros have been stuck in a frustrating cycle. The Fed was cutting rates, but m...
12/16/2025

For most of this year, buyers and mortgage pros have been stuck in a frustrating cycle. The Fed was cutting rates, but mortgage rates kept climbing anyway. That disconnect has been one of the biggest pain points in the housing market. Last week’s Fed meeting may have finally shifted that trend.

The Fed did cut rates by a quarter point, but the message behind it was cautious. Chair Powell made it clear this was not the start of aggressive rate cuts. The Fed still wants to see inflation fully under control before moving faster. Their updated forecasts showed confidence in the economy staying strong, inflation continuing to cool, and only one rate cut expected in all of 2026. In other words, this was a rate cut with brakes still on.

Inside the Fed, there is clear division. Some officials think inflation is easing enough to justify more cuts. Others believe the economy is still too strong and worry about cutting too quickly. That split explains the mixed signals we have been hearing for months and why markets have struggled to find direction.

One quieter but important takeaway from the meeting is the Fed’s continued plan to buy short term Treasury bills. These purchases help keep liquidity stable in the financial system. More stability tends to calm the long term bond market, which is what mortgage rates are tied to. Less volatility makes it easier for rates to settle instead of swinging wildly.

The biggest takeaway is this. For the first time in over a year, long term rates actually moved lower after a Fed rate cut. That breaks the painful pattern where every previous cut pushed mortgage rates higher. While rates are still elevated, this shift is a positive sign and could signal better alignment ahead if inflation continues to ease.

The next few weeks will matter. Inflation data, Treasury auctions, and more Fed commentary will decide whether this improvement sticks. If the trend holds, buyers and sellers may finally start to feel some relief instead of more confusion.

Big housing news just dropped 📢The FHFA announced the new conforming loan limits for 2026 and they are going up again th...
12/12/2025

Big housing news just dropped 📢

The FHFA announced the new conforming loan limits for 2026 and they are going up again thanks to rising home values.

For most of the US, the new loan limit for a single family home will be $832,750. That is an increase of $26,250 from 2025.

Why the increase
By law, loan limits adjust each year based on home price growth. Home values rose about 3.26% nationwide over the past year, so loan limits increased by the same amount.

High cost areas
In more expensive markets, buyers can qualify for higher loan amounts. The new maximum loan limit in high cost areas will be $1,249,125 which is 150% of the baseline limit.

Alaska, Hawaii, Guam, and the US Virgin Islands
These areas have special limits. In those locations, loan limits can go as high as $1,873,675 for a single family home.

Bottom line
Rising home values mean higher loan limits, which can help more buyers qualify without needing jumbo loans. Nearly the entire country will see higher limits in 2026.

Interest rates are still hanging out near the best levels we have seen all year as we head into a massive week with the ...
12/09/2025

Interest rates are still hanging out near the best levels we have seen all year as we head into a massive week with the Fed meeting on December 10.

This last week was pretty calm in the bond market since there were no big economic reports or Fed speakers. When nothing major is happening, markets usually move sideways and that is exactly what we saw. Everyone has basically been waiting for the next big data drop.

Things picked up when the ADP jobs report came in softer than expected, which added to the growing belief that the labor market is cooling. Because of that, the market now sees a ninety percent chance of a rate cut next week.

We also saw movement overseas. Japan hinted at a possible rate hike and their ten year yield jumped to the highest level since 2007. Even though that news is from across the world, it still affects us because global investors move money wherever yields look more attractive. The good news is that our bond market handled that spike well.

The ten year Treasury is sitting right at 4.09 percent, and everyone is watching for it to break below 4 percent because that would likely push mortgage rates even lower.

Looking ahead, this week could be one of the biggest weeks of the entire year. Not just because of the expected rate cut, but because the Fed will release its updated economic projections. The markets care a lot about the dot plot because it shows how many cuts the Fed expects in the coming year. If they point to fewer cuts, rates could bounce. If they show more easing, we could see even better rate improvements. On top of that, we have Treasury auctions which could either support the rally or slow it down depending on demand.

For now, mortgage rates are still sitting near the best levels of 2025.

12/03/2025

Today’s beach clean up! A beach clean-up is way more than just picking up trash. It protects the ocean, the wildlife, and the entire ecosystem that depends on it. When plastic and waste sit on the shore, they break down into microplastics, harm animals, pollute the water, and eventually make their way into our food chain. Let’s keep our oceans clean!

12/02/2025

Estoy muy agradecida por ti. My sista from anotha mista. Cheers to your next journey around the sun

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