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07/10/2025

A rally in big tech stocks led the broader market to a higher close yesterday, lifting the Nasdaq to an all-time high and helping the market regain most of its losses from earlier in the week.
The Dow rose by 217 to 44,458 led by NVDA at close to four trillion worth and by MSFT, the SPX did very well at 37 points to 6263, just short of its record while the Nasdaq was the day’s hero with a 192 point gain to 20,611 led by the above-two plus other semiconductors like INTC, ADI plus AMZN, META and VRNA.
The Russell 2000 Index of small stocks came along for the upside ride with a 24 point gain to 2252 while the VIX continued to decline down to a very low level of 15.94 and the question is now – how much further down is this one supposed to go before some kind of correction sets in to an overbought market?
NVDA became the first public company to exceed four trillion in value after its share price briefly topped $164 each in the early going. Shares in the AI boom poster child were going for around $14 per share at the start of 2023.
The tech rally came as the market continued to weigh the latest developments in the President’s renewed push this week to use threats of higher tariffs on goods imported into the U.S. in hopes of securing new trade agreements with countries around the globe.
Wednesday was initially set as a deadline by Trump for countries to make deals with the U.S. or face heavy increases in tariffs. But with just only two trade deals announced since April, one with the United Kingdom and one with Vietnam, the window for negotiations has been extended to August 1st.
This latest phase in the White House’s trade war heightens the threat of potentially more severe tariffs that have been hanging over the global economy. Higher taxes on imported goods could hinder economic growth, if not increase recession risks.
On Tuesday, Trump said he would be announcing tariffs on pharmaceutical drugs at a “very, very high rate, like 200%.” He also said he would sign an executive order placing a 50% tariff on copper imports, matching the rates charged on steel and aluminum. Copper prices eased Wednesday after spiking a day earlier.
Analysts predict that companies in the S&P will deliver a combined 5% annual growth in second-quarter earnings, according to FactSet. That would mark the lowest growth rate for the index since the fourth quarter of 2023.
DAL starts off earnings season today, with most analysts expecting the airline’s second-quarter profit to decline from a year ago. Most major carriers have trimmed their flight schedules and decreased their forecasts this year as consumers pull back on travel and other nonessential spending due to uncertainty about how Trump’s tariffs will affect their budgets.
In bond market trading, the yield on the 10-year Treasury slid to 4.34% from 4.40% late Tuesday. The minutes from the last Fed meeting showed continued reluctance to do anything late this month as there is the perception that the committee wants to see what effects the tariff plans have on inflation and economic growth at that time.
Dow component MRK is buying VRNA, a U.K. company that focuses on respiratory diseases, in an approximately $10 billion deal. If approved by Verona shareholders and U.K. officials, MRK will get access to Verona’s chronic obstructive pulmonary disease medication Ohtuvayre.
Earnings this week will see: yesterday - WPP lower and A*Z higher; today – DAL higher and HELE lower; Friday – CAG, WD-40.
Economic reports will have: yesterday - minutes from the last F.O.M.C. meeting (see above); today – weekly jobless claims were 227,000.

Donald M. Selkin
Chief Market Strategist

Don Selkin is the Chief Market Strategist at Newbridge Securities Corporation, member FINRA/SPIC and provides the Fair Value analysis for CNBC each morning. The commentary provided in this Market Letter is intended to provide our current or potential customers with timely market analysis and should not be considered a research report. This Market Letter may contain, and is limited to discussions of broad based indices; Commentaries on economic, political or market conditions; Technical analysis concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based on trading volume and price; Statistical summaries of multiple companies’ financial data, including listings of current rating; and recommendations regarding increasing or decreasing holdings in particular industries or securities or securities. This Market Letter does not make a financial or investment recommendation or otherwise promotes a product or service of the firm. This Market Letter contains only news, facts and commentary in information previously reported from a news source believed to be accurate and reliable by the author. These news sources include the following: (Bloomberg Financial, Reuters, and Associated Press); It is possible that at any given point in time, the author, Newbridge Securities, or one or more of its employees or registered individuals associated with Newbridge Securities may hold a position, either long or short, as well as options, bonds or other instruments in the companies mentioned in this report.

07/09/2025

The market ended mixed to lower yesterday as the Trump administration pressed its campaign to win more favorable trade deals with nations around the globe by leaning into tariffs on goods coming into the U.S.
The Dow was the weak link with a decline of 165 to 44, 241 hurt by selling in the financials, which have been strong this year, as AXP, GS and JPM sold off. The S&P slipped by 4 to 6225 after posting its biggest loss since mid-June. It was helped by a new high in NVDA and strength in energy stocks ahead of the OPEC meeting.
The Nasdaq gained 6 to 20,418 led by strength in AMD, MU, ADI and META as the semiconductors did well while the Russell 2000 Index of small stocks showed a gain of 14 to 2229. And once again the VIX fell to 16.81, which means that it can go higher from here, putting the market in danger once again.
The sluggish trading came as the market was coming off a broad sell-off following the Trump administration’s decision to impose new import tariffs set to go into effect next month on more than a dozen nations.
Still, the modest pullback in the markets is a sign that investors may be betting that the U.S. and its trading partners may eventually negotiate deals that will reduce or eliminate the need for punishing tariffs.
On Monday, the President set a 25% tax on goods imported from Japan and South Korea and new tariff rates on a dozen other nations scheduled to go into effect on August 1st.
Trump provided notice by posting letters on Truth Social that were addressed to the leaders of the various countries. The letters warned them to not retaliate by increasing their own import taxes, or else the Trump administration would further increase tariffs.
Just before hefty U.S. tariffs on goods imported from nearly every country around the globe were to take effect in April, Trump postponed the levies for 90 days in hopes that foreign governments would be more willing to strike new trade deals. That 90-day negotiating period was set to expire before today.
With the tariffs set to kick in now on August 1st, the latest move by the White House amounts to essentially a four-week extension of its previous 90-day pause.
During a cabinet meeting Tuesday, Trump said he would be announcing tariffs on pharmaceutical drugs at a “very, very high rate, like 200%.” He also said he would sign an executive order placing a 50% tariff on copper imports, matching the rates charged on steel and aluminum.
Shares in mining company FCX gained following Trump’s remarks. The price of copper for September delivery jumped 13% to $5.69 per pound.
This latest phase in the trade war heightens the threat of potentially more severe tariffs that’s been hanging over the global economy. Higher taxes on imported goods could hinder economic growth, if not increase recession risks.
AMZN fell as the online retail giant started Prime Day, which beginning this year, lasts four days. The company launched the membership sales event in 2015 and expanded it to two days in 2019.
FSLR slid after Trump issued an executive order ending subsidies for foreign-controlled energy companies.
HSY lost ground after the chocolate maker announced a change in C.E.O. after the current one is retiring.
Government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will now permit lenders to use Vantage scores instead of FICO scores when evaluating homebuyer creditworthiness. The latter previously had a monopoly on credit scoring so the new rule promulgated by the Federal Housing Finance Agency makes switching from FICO to Vantage optional, not mandatory. For its troubles, FICO stock got clobbered for 16%.
Bond yields mostly rose. The yield on the 10-year Treasury edged up to 4.40% from 4.39% late Monday.
The market’s downbeat start to the week follows a strong run for stocks, which pushed further into record highs last week after a better-than-expected non-farm payroll report.
The National Federation of Independent Business reported Tuesday that its small business optimism index fell slightly last month, in line with analysts’ expectations. The index tracks how small firms view the U.S. economy and their business prospects.
At 2pm today, the Federal Reserve will release minutes from its policymaking committee’s meeting last month. The Fed’s chair, Jerome Powell, has said the central bank wants to wait and see how Trump’s tariffs affect the economy and inflation before making its next move on interest rates.
Earnings this week will see: today - WPP lower; tonight - A*Z; Friday – CAG, DAL, WD-40.
Economic reports will have: today - minutes from the last F.O.M.C. meeting; Thursday – weekly jobless claims.

Donald M. Selkin
Chief Market Strategist

Don Selkin is the Chief Market Strategist at Newbridge Securities Corporation, member FINRA/SPIC and provides the Fair Value analysis for CNBC each morning. The commentary provided in this Market Letter is intended to provide our current or potential customers with timely market analysis and should not be considered a research report. This Market Letter may contain, and is limited to discussions of broad based indices; Commentaries on economic, political or market conditions; Technical analysis concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based on trading volume and price; Statistical summaries of multiple companies’ financial data, including listings of current rating; and recommendations regarding increasing or decreasing holdings in particular industries or securities or securities. This Market Letter does not make a financial or investment recommendation or otherwise promotes a product or service of the firm. This Market Letter contains only news, facts and commentary in information previously reported from a news source believed to be accurate and reliable by the author. These news sources include the following: (Bloomberg Financial, Reuters, and Associated Press); It is possible that at any given point in time, the author, Newbridge Securities, or one or more of its employees or registered individuals associated with Newbridge Securities may hold a position, either long or short, as well as options, bonds or other instruments in the companies mentioned in this report.

07/08/2025

How many times did I warn that the low level of the VIX on last Thursday’s record close put stocks into danger of getting sold off and this is exactly what happened yesterday to start the new week. In addition, we also got the President stepping up pressure on major trading partners to make deals before punishing tariffs imposed by the U.S. take effect.
As a result of all this, the Dow fell by 422 to 44,406 after being lower by as much as 668 on the afternoon low. The S&P fell by 49 down to 6230 after having been off by 78 at its worst level. This was its largest loss since mid-June. The Nasdaq fell by 188 to 20,412 after getting sold off by as much as 278.
The Russell 2000 Index of small stocks came down by a large 35 points to 2,214 while the VIX moved up from those low levels to end higher at 17.79.
The losses were widespread as decliners outnumbered gainers by nearly 4-to-1.
TSLA got whacked lower by 7% for the biggest drop among S&P stocks as the disputes between C.E.O. Elon Musk and the President reignited over the weekend. Musk, once a top donor and ally of Trump, said he would form a third political party in protest over the Republican spending bill that passed last week.
The selling accelerated after the Trump administration issued letters informing Japan and South Korea that their goods will be taxed at 25% starting on August 1st, citing persistent trade imbalances with the two crucial U.S. allies in Asia.
“If for any reason you decide to raise your Tariffs, then, whatever the number you choose to raise them by, will be added onto the 25% that we charge,” Trump wrote in the letters to the heads of these two countries.
In addition, Trump also announced new tariff rates on Malaysia, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Laos and Myanmar.
Just before hefty U.S. tariffs on goods imported from nearly every country around the globe were to take effect in April, Trump postponed the levies for 90 days in hopes that foreign governments would be more willing to strike new trade deals. That 90-day negotiating period was set to expire before Wednesday.
On Sunday, Trump said he would impose an additional 10% in tariffs against the BRICS bloc of developing nations, which had condemned tariffs increases at its summit in Brazil. In addition to Brazil, the BRICS countries also include Russia, India, China and South Africa.
This latest phase in the trade war heightens the threat of potentially more severe tariffs that have been hanging over the global economy. Higher taxes on imported goods could hinder economic growth, if not increase recession risks.
The near-term outlook will likely hinge on several key factors like the extent to which trading partners are included in Trump letters, the rate of tariffs, and the effective date of such tariffs, according to analysts.
Last week, the Trump administration announced that it reached a deal with Vietnam that would allow U.S. goods to enter the country duty-free, while Vietnamese exports to the U.S. would face a 20% levy. That was a decline from the 46% tax on Vietnamese imports he proposed in April.
MOH fell after the insurer lowered its profit guidance due to rapidly accelerating costs.
In deal news, software company CRWV agreed to acquire cryptocurrency mining company CORZ in an all-stock transaction valued at about $9 billion. Both companies’ stocks fell as a result.
Bond yields mostly rose. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.39% from 4.34% late Thursday.
Oil prices fluctuated after OPEC+ agreed on Saturday to raise production in August by 548,000 barrels per day.
U.S. benchmark crude settled 1.4% higher at $67.93 per barrel, while Brent crude, the international standard, rose 1.9% to settle at $69.58 per barrel.
The Fed’s chair, Jerome Powell, has been insisting that the central bank wants to wait and see how Trump’s tariffs affect the economy and inflation before making its next move on interest rates. While lower rates give a boost to the economy by making it easier to borrow money, they can also give inflation more fuel. That could be dangerous if the Trump administration’s tariffs send inflation higher.
Earnings this week will see: yesterday – MOH; Wednesday – A*Z; Friday – CAG, DAL, WD-40.
Economic reports will have: Wednesday – minutes from the last F.O.M.C. meeting; Thursday – weekly jobless claims.

Donald M. Selkin
Chief Market Strategist

Don Selkin is the Chief Market Strategist at Newbridge Securities Corporation, member FINRA/SPIC and provides the Fair Value analysis for CNBC each morning. The commentary provided in this Market Letter is intended to provide our current or potential customers with timely market analysis and should not be considered a research report. This Market Letter may contain, and is limited to discussions of broad based indices; Commentaries on economic, political or market conditions; Technical analysis concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based on trading volume and price; Statistical summaries of multiple companies’ financial data, including listings of current rating; and recommendations regarding increasing or decreasing holdings in particular industries or securities or securities. This Market Letter does not make a financial or investment recommendation or otherwise promotes a product or service of the firm. This Market Letter contains only news, facts and commentary in information previously reported from a news source believed to be accurate and reliable by the author. These news sources include the following: (Bloomberg Financial, Reuters, and Associated Press); It is possible that at any given point in time, the author, Newbridge Securities, or one or more of its employees or registered individuals associated with Newbridge Securities may hold a position, either long or short, as well as options, bonds or other instruments in the companies mentioned in this report.

07/07/2025

U.S. stocks climbed further into records on Thursday after a report showed the U.S. job market looks stronger than expected.
The S&P 500 rose 0.8% and set an all-time high for the fourth time in five days, with a gain of 52 points up to 6,279 led by the large technology stocks and the financials once again. July has been the best performing month over the past 20 years, with a 2.8% average advance.
Yet there was some underlying factors that should have taken away some of the enthusiasm such as private businesses adding only 74,000 jobs, which was well short of the 100,000 that were predicted, as the big boost came from education jobs, which gained 63,000.
In addition, the workforce contracted by 130,000, which lowered the participation rate to 62.3%, below the recent average of 63%.
The Nasdaq also set a record with a 208 point advance to 20,601 led by the large techs including NVDA at a new high and DDOG which is getting added to the S&P. This index had been higher in July for 16 straight years before a nominal loss last year.
The Dow added 344 to 44,828 to put it within less than 1% of its record high, while the Russell 2000 Index of small stocks did well based on the financials at a 22 point gain to 2249. And as I have been saying, the VIX continued to decline, now at 16.38 which one would think could finally create enough support to rise from those levels and put at least a temporary halt to the recent upside equity explosion.
The market’s gains were widespread, and companies whose profits can get the biggest boosts when workers are feeling confident helped lead the way.
The reaction was bigger in the bond market following the report from the U.S. government, which said employers added 147,000 more jobs to their payrolls last month than they cut. The unexpected acceleration in hiring signals the U.S. job market is holding up despite worries about how the President’s tariffs may hurt the economy and inflation.
The weekly unemployment jobless claims came in lower than expected at 233,000, an indication of easing layoffs.
Yields jumped in the bond market as investors bet the better-than-expected data could keep the Federal Reserve on hold when it comes to interest rates, instead of cutting them like Trump has loudly been calling for.
Traders in the futures market now see less than a 5% chance that the Fed could cut its main interest rate at its next meeting later this month. That is down sharply from the nearly 24% chance they saw just a day earlier, according to data from CME Group.
The Fed’s chair, Jerome Powell, has been insisting that he wants to wait and see how Trump’s tariffs affect the economy and inflation before making its next move. While lower rates give a boost to the economy by making it easier to borrow money, they can also give inflation more fuel. And that could be dangerous if Trump’s tariffs are about to send inflation higher.
Many of Trump’s stiff proposed taxes on imports are currently on pause, but they are scheduled to kick in this week unless Trump reaches deals with other countries to lower them.
Many U.S. companies in the services industries are still saying they are concerned about the impacts of tariffs, even if they returned to growth last month following May’s contraction, according to the most recent survey by the Institute for Supply Management.
“Increased cost from tariffs and the potential for tariffs is impacting cost increases,” one company in the agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting industry said in the survey.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.34% from 4.30% late Wednesday. The two-year Treasury yield, which moves more closely with expectations for the Fed, jumped even more. It climbed to 3.88% from 3.78%.
On the losing side were companies that can feel pain from interest rates staying high.
Homebuilders would like rates to fall in order to make mortgages cheaper to get, for example, and Lennar sank 4%, while D.R. Horton dropped 3%.
Mizuho Bank Ltd. said countries may be receiving letters from Trump stating tariff levels as early last weekend. Countries will have to brace for volatility, it said.
Earnings this week will see: Wednesday – A*Z; Friday – CAG, DAL, WD-40.
Economic reports will have: Thursday – weekly jobless claims.

Donald M. Selkin
Chief Market Strategist

Don Selkin is the Chief Market Strategist at Newbridge Securities Corporation, member FINRA/SPIC and provides the Fair Value analysis for CNBC each morning. The commentary provided in this Market Letter is intended to provide our current or potential customers with timely market analysis and should not be considered a research report. This Market Letter may contain, and is limited to discussions of broad based indices; Commentaries on economic, political or market conditions; Technical analysis concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based on trading volume and price; Statistical summaries of multiple companies’ financial data, including listings of current rating; and recommendations regarding increasing or decreasing holdings in particular industries or securities or securities. This Market Letter does not make a financial or investment recommendation or otherwise promotes a product or service of the firm. This Market Letter contains only news, facts and commentary in information previously reported from a news source believed to be accurate and reliable by the author. These news sources include the following: (Bloomberg Financial, Reuters, and Associated Press); It is possible that at any given point in time, the author, Newbridge Securities, or one or more of its employees or registered individuals associated with Newbridge Securities may hold a position, either long or short, as well as options, bonds or other instruments in the companies mentioned in this report.

07/02/2025

The first day of trading for the second half of the year looked like a return to the 1980’s as the old-time stocks that have done the worst this year – pharmaceuticals, retailers, casinos, builders and the rest of the weak items – all of a sudden caught fire and did well with the result that the Dow ended a strong day with a 400 point advance to 44,495 which left it within 1% of its all-time high. This was due to gains in AMGN, AXP, HD, HON, MCD, MRK, NKE, UNH and even AAPL which is starting to show pulse from low levels. It has now been higher for four straight days and seven out of the last eight.
Meanwhile the SPX dipped by 7 to 6198 as most technology stocks sold off sharply for its first loss in four days, and the Nasdaq really got blasted to the downside with a 167 point selloff to 20,202 as TSLA took a huge selloff in addition to the others. Meanwhile the lagging Russell 2000 made a rally of 22 points to 2197.
And after all of the turmoil, the VIX made a nominal gain up to 16.83.
TSLA hurt the market as the relationship between its CEO Elon Musk and the President went further downhill. Once close allies, the two have clashed recently, and Trump suggested there’s potentially “BIG MONEY TO BE SAVED” by scrutinizing subsidies, contracts or other government spending going to Musk’s companies.
Drops for several heroes of the artificial-intelligence frenzy also weighed on the market, as NVDA’s decline of 3% was the heaviest weight on the S&P.
But more stocks within the index rose than fell, led by several casino companies. They rallied following a report showing better-than-expected growth in overall gaming revenue in Macao, China’s casino hub. This helped LVS, WYNN and MGM.
Automakers outside of TSLA were also strong, with beaten-down GM and F showing good gains for a change.
Many of Trump’s stiff proposed taxes on imports are currently on pause, and they are scheduled to kick into effect at the end of next week. Depending on how big they are, they could hurt the economy and worsen inflation.
Washington is also making progress on proposed tax cut rates and other measures that could send the U.S. government’s debt spiraling higher, which could raise inflation.
In the bond market, Treasury yields swiveled following some mixed reports on the U.S. economy.
The May JOLTS report showed 7.7 million job openings than the month before and that economists expected. That could be an encouraging signal for a job market that had been appearing to settle into a low-hire, low-fire state.
Separate reports on U.S. manufacturing were more mixed. One from the Institute for Supply Management said U.S. manufacturing activity shrank again in June to 49, though not by as much as the month before.
A separate report from S&P Global suggested manufacturing production returned to growth at 52.9 in June after three months of declines.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury held at 4.24%, where it was late Monday, after bouncing from a modest loss to a modest gain earlier in the day.
The two-year Treasury yield, which more closely tracks expectations for what the Federal Reserve will do with its main interest rate, rose more sharply to 3.77% from 3.72%. Better-than-expected data on the economy could push the Fed to stay on pause with interest rates, after it halted its cuts to rates at the start of this year.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said again that he wants to wait for more evidence about how Trump’s tariffs will affect the economy and inflation before resuming cuts to interest rates. That is despite Trump’s angry insistences lately that Powell and the Fed act more quickly to give the economy a boost through lower rates.
Earnings have: CNC lower
Economic reports will have: yesterday - May construction spending down by 0.3%, May JOLTS report came in higher at 7.7 million, ISM May Manufacturing Index was 49, SPX global manufacturing grew to 52.9; today – ADP report which came in lower, to -33,000 and we will see how this plays out tomorrow morning; Thursday – weekly jobless claims, May factory orders, June non-farms payroll reports for which the estimate is 110,00 and the unemployment rate is 4.3%. Job growth this year has averaged 123,800 compared to 191,900 the previous two years.

Donald M. Selkin
Chief Market Strategist

Don Selkin is the Chief Market Strategist at Newbridge Securities Corporation, member FINRA/SPIC and provides the Fair Value analysis for CNBC each morning. The commentary provided in this Market Letter is intended to provide our current or potential customers with timely market analysis and should not be considered a research report. This Market Letter may contain, and is limited to discussions of broad based indices; Commentaries on economic, political or market conditions; Technical analysis concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based on trading volume and price; Statistical summaries of multiple companies’ financial data, including listings of current rating; and recommendations regarding increasing or decreasing holdings in particular industries or securities or securities. This Market Letter does not make a financial or investment recommendation or otherwise promotes a product or service of the firm. This Market Letter contains only news, facts and commentary in information previously reported from a news source believed to be accurate and reliable by the author. These news sources include the following: (Bloomberg Financial, Reuters, and Associated Press); It is possible that at any given point in time, the author, Newbridge Securities, or one or more of its employees or registered individuals associated with Newbridge Securities may hold a position, either long or short, as well as options, bonds or other instruments in the companies mentioned in this report.

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