Team Pruner Mortgage

11/03/2025

Monday Market Update and this week's Top 10 List - November 3, 2025 10am

Current Mortgage Rates Direction: Short term higher following last week's Fed meeting.

Advise For Our Clients: Lock short term ... read on

Current Price of FNMA 30-year 5.5% Bond: $101.06, -3bps 110 year Treasury Yield 4.10% up 3bps; Equities markets mixed.

November is starting with slightly lower MBS prices while Treasury yields inch higher.

With the government in its 34th day of a shutdown, government derived reports like the Jobs Report will not be delivered, so markets will look to private data like the weekly ADP report tomorrow at 8:15 and the monthly ADP on Wednesday at 8:15.

There are no note or bond auctions this week. Fed speak will pick up this week - this on the heels of non-voting Fed officials saying they preferred not to cut rates last week.

Stocks are mixed as the market digests the Fed’s more cautious approach to cuts. WTI oil is in the $60/bbl range.

Technical Outlook:

The FNMA 5.5% is sitting on support at 101.00. The 10-year Treasury yield holds at 4.10% - right at yield resistance of 4.10%, with support at 4.00%. If 4.10% is broken - the 10-year will likely drift to 4.20%. The trend for both mortgage bonds and Treasury yields are testing key levels - Which is why we are recommending a locking status.

Guidance and Recommendations:

Continue to lock loans closing soon and get more ready to lock if mortgage bonds fall beneath $101 and the 10-year drifts above 4.10%. Watch key levels closely with us.

· Where are rates headed? Slightly higher. ·

· Why? Cautious Fed on rate cuts

· What’s next? No high impact this week, Fed speak.

And here is this weeks Top 10 List:

1. That’s what I’m talking about! The 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 6.17% as of October 30, 2025, down from the previous week when it averaged 6.19%. A year ago this time it was 6.72% (Freddie Mac).

2. You don’t say! August represents a unique opportunity for buyers. Inventory is typically still high, giving buyers plenty of options to choose from, and sellers are starting to ramp up price cuts on homes that have been on the market since spring (Zillow).

3. Not the movie? In the world of finance, the “Magnificent Seven” refers to a group of seven high-performing, influential stocks in the technology sector. The name derives from a 1960 Western film, “The Magnificent Seven,” which was directed by John Sturges and depicts a powerful group of seven gunmen. They are Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Tesla (Investopedia).

4. Good news for rates? The Fed will stop shrinking its balance sheet on December 1, rolling over all maturing Treasuries and effectively ending quantitative tightening (QT). For agency mortgage‑backed securities (MBS), the $35 billion/month runoff cap remains, but maturing MBS will now be reinvested into Treasuries rather than new MBS. This marks a shift toward halting further balance sheet reduction while maintaining market stability (Federal Reserve).

5. Just the numbers. Newly built homes made up 26.8% of single-family homes for sale nationwide in August, the lowest level in four years, down from 28.2% a year earlier and 30.6% two years earlier (Redfin).

6. We’re gonna hold you to it. “Affordability conditions have strengthened steadily throughout 2025, and with mortgage rates expected to stabilize and home prices remaining flat, we anticipate slightly stronger housing demand heading into 2026” - Edward Seiler (MBA’s Associate Vice President of Housing Economics).

7. I ain’t sellin! Only 28 out of every 1,000 (2.8%) U.S. homes have changed hands in 2025—the lowest turnover rate in at least 30 years. There were 37.7% fewer homes sold this year than during the middle of the pandemic buying frenzy in 2021 (44 of every 1,000), and 31.2% fewer homes sold than during the last pre-pandemic year in 2019 (40 of every 1,000) (Redfin).

8. Need more wood for the fire. Active listings rose 15.3% year over year, marking the 24th straight month of gains. However, the pace of growth has eased each month since May, signaling a plateau in the post-pandemic inventory recovery (Realtor.com).

9. More affordable? The median U.S. monthly housing payment was $2,530 for the four weeks ending October 26, down 1.4% YoY—the biggest decline since November 2024 (Redfin).

10. “We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit” – Will Durant (Brainyquote).

Have a blessed week!

Mason

10/30/2025

https://vidmails.com/v/9mmJCz8Y8D
Your Trick or Treat Fed Day Rate update!

Video from Mason Pruner - The Mortgage Firm Inc

10/30/2025

Post Fed Day Market Update - Thursday, October 30, 2025 11am

Current Mortgage Rates Direction: Higher, off the lows from a week ago, but still near lows for the year.

Advise for our Clients: Lock short term... read on...

Current Price of FNMA 30-year 5.5% Bond: $101.16, 0bps

Today's Update:

“Another rate cut in December is not a foregone conclusion,” Fed Chair Powell said yesterday - and then the bottom fell out of both stocks and bonds.

This morning we are seeing the 3rd reaction to the Fed and it is so far a bit muted - with flat bond prices and slightly higher Treasury yields - both now testing key levels.

The statement wasn’t any market mover and came as expected with a quarter point cut and the halt to QT on December 1. But there were two opposite dissenters one wanting a 50bp cut and the other wanting no rate cut at all and the markets still shrugged that off.

However, along with his above words, Fed Chair Powell emphasized that there were strongly differing views within the Fed about how to proceed in December, that the central bank would carefully evaluate every scrap of incoming data as if “driving in the fog,” and that the Fed would eventually need to expand its balance sheet again to keep pace with the size of the banking system and the economy, signaling a cautious but hawkish stance on future policy.

So, all in all, it was a hawkish cut. a true Trick or Treat!

A hawkish Fed means the Federal Reserve is focused on fighting inflation, even if that means slowing the economy. When the Fed takes a hawkish stance, it’s signaling that interest rates may stay higher for longer—or even rise further—to keep prices under control. This often leads to higher borrowing costs and pressure on bonds and mortgage rates, as markets anticipate tighter financial conditions ahead.

On QT ending … It means it’s ending Quantitative Tightening (QT)—the process of shrinking its balance sheet by allowing Treasury and mortgage-backed securities to mature without replacing them. In plain terms, the Fed will stop pulling liquidity out of the system. This marks a notable shift in policy, suggesting officials believe financial conditions have tightened enough and that continuing QT could risk slowing the economy too much.

Before the meeting, the 10-year yield was 3.97% and closed at 4.05% and is now 4.08%. The FNMA 30-year 5.5% coupon traded at 101.47 and closed at 101.16. The Dow and S&P gave up their gains.

The first read on Q3 GDP and Weekly Claims were not released today and Core PCE will not be released tomorrow due to the ongoing government shutdown.

WTI oil is in the $60/bbl range. The Dow is up, S&P and Nasdaq are lower after Fed Chair Powell yesterday.

Fed commentary will resume but we don’t see any on today’s calendar.

Technical Outlook:

After the decline, the FNMA 5.5% is just above support at 101.00 failing to rise above stiff resistance at $101.50, a level it hasn’t traded above since September 2024. With the 10-year Treasury yield now at 4.08% - just below yield resistance at 4.105, with support at 4.00%. If 4.10% is broken - the 10-year will likely drift to 4.20%

The trend for both mortgage bonds and Treasury yields are testing key levels - watch carefully with us.

Guidance and Recommendations:

Continue to lock loans closing soon and get more ready to lock if mortgage bonds fall beneath $101 and the 10-year drifts above 4.10%. Watch key levels closely with us.

· Where are rates headed? Sideways and near best level of the year
· Why? Lower oil prices, QT ending.
· What’s next? No major economic reports, Fed speak.

Have a great Thursday!

Mason

10/29/2025

Hump Day Market Update - Wednesday, October 29, 2025 10:30am

Current Mortgage Rates Direction: holding in a tight range near best rates of the year.

Advise for our Clients: Continue to float the bulk of new loans to the Fed Meeting

Current Price of FNMA 30-year 5.5% Bond: $101.47 - no change. 10 year Treasury Yield 3.99% up 2bps. Equities markets are on a tear with all three indices in record territory.

Dow Jones: 48,004.95, +298.58, 0.63%
Nasdaq: 24,009.43, +181.93, 0.76%
S&P 500: 6,919.11, +28.22, 0.41%

Wednesday's Update:

It’s Fed Day! The two-day Fed meeting culminates today with the 2:00 PM EDT release of the monetary policy statement. Bond prices are slightly lower; Treasury yields are near unchanged.

The Fed is expected to cut the short-term Fed Funds Rate by 0.25% which is already baked in the cake but will be listening for rhetoric on inflation and the overall U.S. economy. Fed Chair Powell will hold his press conference at 2:30.

The markets will be on alert for any rhetoric pertaining to the possibility that the Fed may halt QT and what the details may be. The question is … will the markets sell on the Fed news or buy the dip if Powell signals a more dovish stance on inflation, QT, or future rate cuts?

We typically see three reactions … one when the statement is released, the second when Fed Chair Powell speaks and third tomorrow morning after the markets digest the headlines.

The first read on Q3 GDP and September Core PCE will not be released this week due to the ongoing government shutdown.

WTI oil is in the $60/bbl range. Stocks are higher after the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq closed at fresh record levels yesterday. Major tech companies — including Meta, Alphabet, and Microsoft — are expected to report earnings after the market closes today.

Fed commentary is in the blackout period until tomorrow.

Technical Outlook:

The FNMA 5.5% is testing stiff resistance at $101.50, a level it hasn’t traded above since September 2024. The 10-year Treasury yield is 3.98% with support at 3.96% with resistance at 4.08%.

This afternoon’s Fed headlines could be the catalyst to either push the 10-year yield below 4% or above it.

Guidance and Recommendations:

Continue to float new loans to the Fed. Watch key levels closely with us.

· Where are rates headed? Lower.
· Why? Lower oil prices, banking uncertainty, QT may be ending, Fed cuts coming. slowing jobs market
· What’s next? Fed meeting today.

Stay Tuned and Happy Hump Day!

Mason

10/24/2025

Its FALL.. and RATES are FALLING!

Video from Mason Pruner - The Mortgage Firm Inc

10/24/2025

Friday Market Update - October 24, 2025 9:25am

Current Mortgage Rates Direction: trending lower

Advise for our Clients: Continue to float new loans to the Fed Meeting on Wednesday

Current Price of FNMA 30-year 5.5% Bond: $101.22, -3bps

Friday's Update:

September consumer inflation cooled a bit and the markets breathed a sigh of relief as Treasury yields moved back below a key level.

Headline CPI year-over-year came in at 3.0% vs. 3.1% expected, and month-over-month at 0.3% vs. 0.4%. Core CPI rose 3.0% year-over-year vs. 3.1% expected, and 0.2% month-over-month vs. 0.3%.- Positive news -the lower shelter component and Owner's Equivalent Rent was a welcome sign and gives the Fed room to cut next week and likely in December.

The 10-year yield was trading at 4.01% and has fallen to 3.98%, while mortgage bond prices are flat.

Stock futures are higher after the data and at record high levels. WTI oil is $61.84/bbl.

Fed commentary is now in the blackout period until October 30.

The big event next week is the two-day Fed meeting culminating with the release of the monetary policy statement where it is expects that the FFR will decrease by 25bp to 4%. If the shutdown continues into late next week, Q3 GDP and Core PCE will likely not be released. The Treasury will auction $183B in 2-, 5- and 7-year notes.

Technical Outlook:

The FNMA 5.5% is above support of $101.00 as it sets its sights on stiff resistance at $101.50, a level it hasn’t traded above since September 2024. The 10-year Treasury yield is 3.97% with support at 3.96% with resistance at 4.08%.

Guidance and Recommendations:

Heading into the weekend, continue to float new loan files. Watch key levels closely with us.

· Where are rates headed? Lower.
· Why? Lower oil prices, banking uncertainty, QT may be ending, Fed cuts coming.
· What’s next? Fed meeting next week, heavy Treasury supply.

Have a great weekend!

Mason

10/22/2025

Hump Day Market Update - Wednesday, October 22, 2025, 11:40am.

Current Mortgage Rates Direction: no real direction today with MBS prices up but treasury yields also marginally up

Advise for our Clients: Continue to carefully float new loans.

Current Price of FNMA 30-year 5.5% Bond: $101.34, +3bps; 10 year Treasury Yield 3.97% up 1bp Equities markets in the red today

Mortgage bond prices and Treasuries continue to trade in tight intraday ranges while edging higher in price and lower in yields.

There are no economic reports due for release today. The MBA reports that the 30-year fixed rate fell to 6.37% last week. Be sure to check out yesterday’s Featured Chart, ‘Oil Drops, Rates Follow’ located under the MMG Feed section.

The Treasury will auction $13B in 20-year bonds on Wednesday, results just after 1:00 PM EDT..

Stocks are modestly lower and near record high levels as the market searches for direction early in earnings season. WTI oil is $58.26/bbl. Gold is lower, as are cryptos. We think a decline in the former was long overdue and partly a reason for the pop higher in bond prices.

Fed commentary is now in the blackout period until October 30.

Technical Outlook:

The FNMA 5.5% is above support of $101.00 as it sets its sights on stiff resistance at $101.50, a level it hasn’t traded above since September 2024. The 10-year Treasury yield is 3.96%, right on support at 3.96% with resistance at 4.08%.

Guidance and Recommendations:

Continue to float the new loan files. Watch key levels closely with us.

· Where are rates headed? Lower.
· Why? Lower oil prices, banking uncertainty, QT may be ending, Fed cuts coming.
· What’s next? Consumer Price Index on Friday.

Happy Hump Day!

Mason

10/21/2025

Tuesday Market Update - October 21, 2025, Noon

Current Mortgage Rates Direction: still moving lower

Advise for our Clients: Continue to carefully float new loan files

Current Price of FNMA 30-year 5.5% Bond: $101.34 up 6bps, 10 Year Treasury Yield 3.95% down 3bps. Equities markets mixed with Dow and S&P up and NASDAQ down.

Also... gold is lower, oil is lower, and crypto is lower - as a result rates are lower.

Before the government shutdown we saw some cracks in the labor market with job market weakness from downward payroll revisions, rising layoff announcements, and slowing hiring intentions. There was also a sharp contraction in the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index despite the Empire State Index's rebound.

As noted earlier, oil prices have plunged. WTI oil hit $81/bbl back in January and fell to $56 yesterday. The national average price for a regular gallon of gasoline has fallen to $3 from $5 in June of 2022. Disinflationary pressures from lower oil and gas prices, alongside soft economic data and expectations for further Fed rate cuts are positive signals for the bond markets and borrowing costs.

There are no economic reports due for release today as the market awaits the September CPI report for September which will be released Friday.

The Treasury will auction $13B 20-year bonds on Wednesday.

Stocks are mixed in early trading and at record high levels as the market searches for direction early in earnings season.

Fed commentary is now in the blackout period until October 30.

Technical Outlook:

The FNMA 5.5% is above support of $101.00 as it sets its sights on stiff resistance at 101.50, a level it hasn’t traded above since September 2024. The 10-year Treasury yield is 3.95%, right on support at 3.96% with resistance at 4.08%.

Guidance and Recommendations:

Continue to float new loan files - Watch key levels closely with us.

· Where are rates headed? Lower.
· Why? Lower oil prices, banking uncertainty, QT may be ending, Fed cuts coming.
· What’s next? Consumer Price Index on Friday.

Happy Tuesday!

Mason

10/21/2025

Oil Drops, Rates Follow - October 21, 2025

Oil prices have dropped sharply since the beginning of 2025, and 30-year fixed mortgage rates have moved lower alongside them. Falling energy costs are easing inflationary pressures, which in turn helps keep bond yields and borrowing costs favorable.

Takeaway: This trend is creating a more supportive environment for home buyers and providing opportunities for lenders to guide clients through a lower-rate market.

10/20/2025

Monday Full Market Update AND the Monday Top 10 List: 3:30pm October 20, 2025

Current Mortgage Rates Direction: slight improvement from this morning's read

Advise for our Clients: Continue to float new loan files.

Current Price of FNMA 30-year 5.5% Bond: $101.28, up 9bps, 10 year Treasury Yield 3.98 - down 3bps for the day so far. Nice gains in the equities markets with the Dow up 428, NASDAQ up 320 and S&P up 72

This afternoon's update:

Mortgage bond prices and Treasury yields continue to improve.

The bond markets have been stuck in an extremely tight range since key economic data has been suspended due to the government shutdown. The 10-year yield is holding just under the 4% level.

The only economic data ahead of Friday is Thursday’s Existing Home Sales Report for September. The Treasury will auction $13B 20-year bonds on Wednesday.

WTI oil hovers near $56/bbl - a 5-yr low!!! Both stocks and bonds like lower oil prices.

Stocks are higher and at record high levels as the market searches for direction early in earnings season.

Fed commentary is now in the blackout period until October 30.

Technical Outlook:

The FNMA 5.5% is just above support of $101.00. The 10-year Treasury yield is 3.99%, on support of 4.00% with additional support at 3.96% and resistance at 4.08%.

Guidance and Recommendations:

Ahead of Friday’s CPI data, continue to float the bulk of new loan files. Watch key levels closely with us.

Where are rates headed? Lower.
Why? Lower oil prices, banking uncertainty, QT may be ending, Fed cuts coming.
What’s next? Consumer Price Index on Thursday.

Here is the Monday Top 10 List!

1. Is cash king? Just under three in 10 (28.8%) U.S. homebuyers paid in all cash in August, down just incrementally from 29% a year earlier. The prevalence of all-cash payments peaked at nearly 35% in late 2023 and early 2024 because mortgage rates peaked in the high-7% range during that time. Buyers were inclined to pay in cash— if they could afford it—to avoid high monthly interest payments (source: Redfin).

2. So are you hiring or not. “The U.S. labor market remained mired in its low-hiring, low-firing doldrums through September, though the economy 'may be on a somewhat firmer trajectory than expected’” – Fed Chair Powell (source: Reuters).

3. Quote of the week. “Mortgage rates inched down this week and have held relatively steady over the past several weeks. Importantly, homeowners have noticed these consistently lower rates, driving an uptick in refinance activity. Combined with increased housing inventory and slower house price growth, these rates also are creating a more favorable environment for those looking to buy a home” – Sam Khater (source: Freddie Mac).

4. Throw more wood on the fire. New listings of U.S. homes for sale rose 4.1% year over year during the four weeks ending October 12, the biggest increase in over four months (source: Redfin).

5. Close, but no cigar. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 37 in October, up five points from September and the highest reading since April though still below a reading of 50 which indicates builders see conditions as unfavorable, above 50, favorable (source: NAHB).

6. The 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 6.27% as of October 16, 2025, down from the previous week when it averaged 6.30%. A year ago this time it was 6.44% (source: Freddie Mac).

7. September Rental Report. Rental affordability is better than it’s been in four years, requiring 28.4% of median household income nationwide. Landlords are offering concessions on 37.3% of rentals on Zillow, a record high for September. Single-family rents ease to 3.2% annual growth, the slowest since 2016 (source: Zillow).

8. Sshhh! The Federal Reserve’s “quiet period” — when Fed officials refrain from public comments on monetary policy to avoid influencing markets — ahead of the October 28–29, 2025, FOMC meeting begins at 12:00 AM EDT on Saturday, October 18, and ends at 11:59 PM EDT on Thursday, October 30. (source: Markets)

9. Is it getting cool in here? U.S. home prices are showing signs of cooling and beginning to stabilize after months of steady increases. The national median home price has dipped slightly to $400,000, reflecting slower appreciation and growing price pressure in costlier markets. This trend is contributing to improved affordability, which is now at its most favorable level since 2022 (source: Builder and Developer).

10. A bank is a place that will lend you money if you can prove that you don’t need it – Bob Hope (source: BrainyQuote).

Mason