GPM Growth Investors, Inc.

04/02/2026

After entering the year near record highs, most major U.S. stock indices declined in Q1. The Iran conflict became a defining macro catalyst, pushing oil prices sharply higher, lifting inflation uncertainty, and reinforcing a risk-off posture across markets in late February and March. Stocks ended broadly lower as buyers stages a moratorium. Energy and select consumer defensive stocks advanced while most others declined. The quarter saw higher day-to-day volatility, wider dispersion among sector, and a renewed premium for companies with pricing power and balance-sheet strength.

The Iran conflict fueled energy shock fears and risk-off sentiment. Oil prices surged as markets priced higher supply risk and shipping disruption risk, fueling inflation concerns and adding downward pressure to stocks and bond prices. In multiple sessions, headlines and shifting signals around possible ceasefire talks drove sharp intraday reversals in oil and broader risk assets. Oil became the main transmission channel from geopolitics to markets as stocks sold off when oil spiked and ceasefire prospects looked less certain. Treasuries also weakened at times as investors weighed an inflation shock versus a growth shock.

Continue to read GPM's Q1 2026 Quarterly Summary here: https://www.gpmgrowth.com/newsletter

01/05/2026

Most stocks indices ended higher in Q4. The S&P 500 gained 2.3% to end the year 1.5% below the new all-time-high set the day before Christmas. Beneath the surface, approximately 52% of U.S. stocks advanced in the quarter and 57% in the full year, reflecting uneven sentiment after the government shutdown ended. 2025 performance across major indices and sectors was also highly uneven.

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times from mid September amid signs of receding inflation and a cooling labor market. The Fed’s policy pivot is a positive catalyst for stock and bond market sentiment. After holding rates steady through mid-2025, the Fed implemented 0.25% rate cuts in September, October, and December, bringing the federal funds rate down to 3.50%–3.75%. Since September 2024, the Fed cut rates six times totaling 175 basis points. The current easing cycle followed eleven hikes during 2022–2023, raising the target rate from a pandemic low of 0.0% to 5.50% in August 2023.

Inflation continued to ease. November consumer prices rose less than expected, +2.7% from a year ago and down from about +3% in September. This cooling was due in part to lower energy prices and the partial rollback of select tariffs, which helped boost market sentiment and gave the Fed confidence to ease policy. Core inflation was similarly modest at +2.6%.

The U.S. economy showed resilience with strong Q3 GDP growth (+4.3% annualized), although the late-2025 government shutdown and fading fiscal stimulus likely dented Q4 growth.

Continue to read GPM's Q4 2025 Quarterly Summary here: https://www.gpmgrowth.com/newsletter

10/10/2025

Q3 2025 saw financial markets continue their upward trajectory. Investor sentiment improved as concerns over trade and tariff policy eased, and confidence in pro-growth administration policies strengthened.

Stocks posted solid gains, and major indices reached new all-time highs. Technology and select growth stocks led the rally, driven by ongoing, fast-paced innovation in artificial intelligence and cloud computing, while value stocks continued to lag. Advancing stocks outpaced decliners by a decent margin in Q3.

Bonds also delivered solid returns, with high-yield and corporate bonds outperforming Treasuries amid steady demand and moderating inflation. Balanced portfolios benefited from gains across portfolio components, reinforcing the importance of diversification in a dynamic market environment.

Continue to read GPM's Q3 2025 Quarterly Summary here: https://www.gpmgrowth.com/newsletter

07/01/2025

Stocks posted healthy rebound gains in Q2. Investors shook-off initial tariff worries and warmed up to select Trump administration successes. Advancing stocks outpaced decliners by a solid margin. Technology outperformed, led by semiconductors. Energy and healthcare lagged as investors consider evolving policy implications.

Bond returns were broadly positive, adding to first quarter gains. High-yield and corporate bonds outperformed in Q2.

Continue to read GPM's Q2 2025 Quarterly Summary here: https://www.gpmgrowth.com/gpm-quarterly-review

04/04/2025

Stocks lost ground in nine of thirteen weeks to end the quarter mostly lower. Decliners outnumbered gainers for the second-straight quarter. Defensive sectors like energy, healthcare, utilities and consumer staples led. Semiconductors, technology, and consumer discretionary lost the most ground.

Bonds posted solid gains in Q1 following a weak fourth quarter. Treasuries and investment grade corporates performed best.

Continue to read GPM's Q1 2025 Quarterly Summary here:
https://www.gpmgrowth.com/gpm-quarterly-review

01/08/2025

Stocks ended Q4 mostly lower as decliners outnumbered gainers. Full-year was broadly positive. Large cap growth, exciting narratives, and speculative stocks led. Value stocks, small caps, materials, industrials, staples, and the S&P 500 Equal Weight Underperformed.

Bond returns flipped to negative as yields increased while the Fed cut short term rates three times totaling 100 bps since September 18th. Shorter duration corporate and high-yield bonds outperformed longer maturities and Treasuries.

Continue to read GPM's Q4 2024 Quarterly Summary here:
https://www.gpmgrowth.com/gpm-quarterly-review

10/03/2024

Stocks ended broadly higher in Q3 vs the narrow advance seen in Q2. The Dow-30, S&P 500 Equal Weight, and Small-caps outperformed the S&P 500 - (see Reuters story linked in article).

Corporate and high-yield bonds performed exceptionally well in Q3 as yields declined steadily and prices increased ahead of an expected Fed rate cut. No disappointment as Fed chief Powell delivered a big 0.50% cut on September 18.

Continue to read GPM's Q3 2024 Quarterly Summary here: https://www.gpmgrowth.com/gpm-quarterly-review

08/28/2024

Market volatility is part of the investing process. More than 7 times a year investors should expect pullbacks of 3 percent and, at least once a year (since 1928), investors should be prepared for a 10 percent correction. When viewed from a historical perspective, recent market activity isn't as abnormal as one might think.

08/05/2024

Stocks fell broadly last week as investors looked past upbeat Fed comments and focused on disappointing corporate reports and weaker-than-expected economic data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.20 percent, while the Standard &...

Stocks fell broadly last week as investors looked past upbeat Fed comments and focused on disappointing corporate reports and weaker-than-expected economic data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.20 percent, while the Standard &

07/29/2024

Stocks had a mixed, see-saw week as disappointing corporate reports unsettled investors who appeared to rotate away from some leading groups in favor of other names. The Dow Jones Industrial Average picked up 0.75 percent. Meanwhile,...

Stocks had a mixed, see-saw week as disappointing corporate reports unsettled investors who appeared to rotate away from some leading groups in favor of other names. The Dow Jones Industrial Average picked up 0.75 percent.

07/22/2024

Stocks were under pressure last week as investors appeared to rotate out of mega-cap tech stocks and into areas that may benefit from lower interest rates. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 1.97 percent, while Nasdaq Composite...

07/15/2024

Stocks advanced last week as market leadership shifted amid fresh inflation data and quarterly corporate reports starting to roll in. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index advanced 0.87 percent, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average picked...