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11/03/2026

11/3/26

Bond yields opened relatively flat this morning, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.91%.

Investors are closely watching midterm election results. A Democratic sweep could complicate future debt ceiling negotiations and add to fiscal uncertainty, while a divided government may provide some relief for Treasury yields.

Current expectations suggest Democrats will take the House, while control of the Senate remains tighter, although Democrats are still viewed as having the edge.

On the geopolitical front, the U.S. and Iran are reviewing peace proposals in an effort to avoid another round of conflict.

11/02/2026

11/2/26

The 10-year Treasury yield is currently at 4.898%, below its opening level near 4.929%.

Technology stocks experienced losses last week, driving investors toward safe-haven assets amid growing concerns over rising inflation and energy prices.

Today’s economic calendar includes U.S. Manufacturing PMI at 9:45 a.m. ET, followed by ISM Manufacturing data at 10:00 a.m. ET.

This week will provide additional insight into labor market conditions, with Job Openings scheduled for tomorrow, ADP Employment on Wednesday, Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday, and the latest Unemployment Report on Friday.

10/30/2026

10/30/26

Bond pricing is slightly improved in early trading as Treasury yields edge lower. The 10-year Treasury yield is currently at 4.925%, near its opening level.

Yields remained relatively steady throughout the week as investors awaited the latest Federal Reserve decision and PCE inflation data.

The Fed held interest rates steady at 3.75%–4.00%, as widely expected.

Attention now shifts to next week’s midterm elections, which could create market volatility as control of Congress is determined.

Investors are also preparing for a busy week of labor market data, culminating with Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report.

No major economic releases are scheduled for this morning.

10/29/2026

10/29/26

Bond pricing and Treasury yields remain relatively flat following the Federal Reserve’s decision.

The 10-year Treasury yield is currently at 4.978%, near its opening level of 4.997%.

Third-quarter GDP grew 3.4%, exceeding the 3.1% forecast.

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), rose 3.6% year over year, slightly below expectations of 3.7%.

Monthly PCE increased 0.5%, while Core PCE rose 0.3%, with both readings in line with forecasts.

No major economic releases are scheduled for tomorrow.

Meanwhile, speculation that the U.S. could renew tensions with Iran following the midterm elections introduces potential geopolitical uncertainty that could contribute to increased market volatility in the near term.

10/28/2026

10/28/26

Bonds are opening relatively steady this morning, with the 10-year Treasury yield hovering just above 5.00% ahead of today’s FOMC rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET and Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.

Markets are pricing in roughly a 91% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady within the current 3.75%–4.00% target range.

However, hawkish messaging from Warsh or the FOMC statement could put upward pressure on Treasury yields following the meeting.

After today’s FOMC announcement, market attention will shift to tomorrow morning’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data releases.

10/27/2026

10/27/26

Durable Goods Orders increased 1.8%, outpacing the forecasted rise of 1.7%.

Later this morning, markets will receive the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, New Home Sales, and Consumer Confidence data, providing additional insight into housing market conditions and consumer sentiment.

Markets have largely priced in no change to the federal funds rate at tomorrow’s Fed meeting.

However, investors will closely monitor the rate decision and Warsh’s press conference for further guidance on the Fed’s monetary policy outlook for the remainder of the year.

With next week marking the start of a new month, markets will also turn their attention to a full slate of employment data throughout the week.

10/27/2026

10/26/26

The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen below the key 5% threshold, potentially signaling a short-term reversal after several weeks of elevated yields.

However, upward pressure on yields remains due to persistent inflation, geopolitical tensions that have kept oil prices elevated, and increasing sovereign and corporate debt.

The Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet this week, with its latest interest-rate decision expected Wednesday.

Market participants are currently pricing in a 90% probability that the Fed will leave rates unchanged.

Investors will be watching Warsh’s press conference closely for clues about the Fed’s updated monetary policy guidance and the potential direction of interest rates.

10/23/2026

10/23/26

Treasury yields edged higher early Friday following Thursday’s sharp rally.

The 10-year yield rose approximately 2 basis points to 4.98% in early trading after closing Thursday near 4.95%, its lowest close since September 17.

Today’s U.S. economic data focuses on Manufacturing and Services PMIs. The latest readings showed Manufacturing PMI at 55.9, Services PMI at 58.8, and Consumer Sentiment at 48.1, all above expectations.

Meanwhile, longer-term inflation expectations eased slightly to 3.4%.

Markets will now turn their attention to next week’s Federal Reserve meeting and the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report.

Inflation pressures and geopolitical tensions remain key drivers of Treasury yields.

10/22/2026

10/22/26

Bond pricing improved in early trading as Treasury yields moved lower. The 10-year yield fell to 5.038%, down from an opening level near 5.086%.

Yields appear to be stabilizing and trending more favorably this week.

Initial Jobless Claims came in at 194,000, below the forecast of 200,000 and down from the previous reading of 199,000.

Services and Manufacturing PMI data, along with Consumer Sentiment, are due tomorrow to close out a relatively quiet week.

Markets are now looking ahead to next week’s Federal Reserve meeting and the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data, both of which could influence near-term market direction.

10/21/2026

10/21/26

Bond yields moved slightly lower this morning, with Treasury yields declining 1–3 basis points across the curve.

Bonds have held relatively steady this week, supported by overseas developments and ongoing concerns surrounding AI that have made Treasuries more attractive to investors.

Market attention is focused on today’s $13 billion 20-year Treasury bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET.

Investors will be watching closely to gauge demand for longer-term government debt, particularly as the long end of the yield curve remains a key area of focus amid recent rate volatility.

No other major U.S. economic data releases are scheduled for today.

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Bloomfield Hills, MI
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