11/02/2026
Market Analysis for the Week of November 2, 2026
Although oil prices climbed, it was another good week for mortgage markets. Investors continued shifting money out of riskier technology stocks and into safer investments, including bonds, helping push mortgage rates lower.
As anticipated, the Fed left the federal funds rate unchanged at a range of 3.75 to 4.00%, and the meeting statement was nearly identical to the prior one. Notably, two of the twelve voting Fed officials dissented from the decision, preferring to raise rates by 25 basis points, an unusually high level of disagreement. Fed Chair Warsh continued to emphasize that future policy decisions will depend on incoming economic data rather than providing specific guidance. Although the Fed maintained the status quo at this meeting, most investors anticipate a rate hike at the next meeting in December.
In September, core PCE, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, was 3.1% higher than a year ago, up slightly from August. Progress toward the 2.0% target of the Fed has been challenging, and this level has not been seen since February 2021.
During the third quarter of 2026, U.S. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.4%, above the consensus forecast and up from 2.2% in the second quarter. Consumer spending and business investment remained solid, with much of the business growth tied to continued investment in artificial intelligence. In particular, business spending on mostly technology equipment surged 21%, the most since 2020.
Bottom Line: Expect more volatility in mortgage rates as investors weigh comments from Fed officials, upcoming economic reports, and changing oil prices tied to the conflict in the Middle East.
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