06/08/2026
June Interest Rate Forecast
Nationally, mortgage rates remain in the low to mid 6% range as the market works through a mixed set of signals.
The economy added 172,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in May, and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, the same level it has maintained since July 2025. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year.
Here is where local rates stand this week:
• 5.5% on 7YR jumbo ARMs up to $5M with full income documentation, depending on loan-to-value and credit
• 5.75% on 10YR jumbo ARMs up to $5M with full documentation, varying by structure and profile
• Bank-statement loans for self-employed borrowers remain generally in the mid to high 6% range, reflecting underwriting complexity while offering flexibility when tax returns do not capture the full income picture
Why Mortgage Rates Are Holding: The 10-year Treasury yield has been hovering in the 4.53% range this week, up roughly 12 basis points over the past month. Oil prices, while off their peak, remain elevated near $92–$96 per barrel, and that keeps inflation expectations higher than bond investors would prefer.
The Southern California real estate market is active, and the data backs it up. The regional median home price reached $900,000 in April, up 1.5% year-over-year. The market is active, with homes selling at or above asking price and the median time on market was down to 21 days in April.
We are in a rate environment shaped by a resilient labor market, a patient Fed, and geopolitical developments that can still move markets quickly in either direction.
Trust the #1 Mortgage Broker in the U.S.* to get your deal done.
We are proud to offer some of the best financing options available and can close quickly. Read our newsletter for more news and the latest mortgage rates. Call us today at 310.777.5401 for more details or apply for financing directly on our website - cohenfinancialgroup.com.
*Based on 2026 Scotsman Guide ranking.
