10/16/2026
Aurora plans to sell the software that replaces a truck driver for 85 cents or more a mile, against $1.18 for the human it replaces. By its own arithmetic, the all-in saving is one fifth. On cost alone that moves little.
Ford Harris showed in 1913 that the economical shipment grows with the square root of what a trip costs, so a one-fifth saving shrinks it by about a tenth. The second force is time. A driverless truck runs past a driver's 11-hour limit, Aurora reports transit on its 1,000-mile Fort Worth to Phoenix lane cut nearly in half, and half the transit is half the stock on the road. Freight waits for full loads because a driver costs the same whether the truck is full or half empty, and a class of consolidation buildings exists to hold that wait.
Through 2029, the driverless truck makes the large hub cheaper to run. In the 2030s the driver comes off the smaller vehicle, the software's price falls with the cost of computing, and buildings whose only job is assembling full loads lose their reason. Cognition gets cheap first. The buildings reprice last. The first public test comes on February 28, 2027, when Aurora reports whether 200 driverless trucks were running at the end of 2026.
bradfordstanleycfa.substack.com/p/when-trucks-stop-waiting
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