09/11/2026
Rates hit new highs this week, and the data behind it wasn't pretty.
Tuesday opened with small business optimism already slipping — the NFIB index came in below the prior reading, with owners citing inflation as their top concern ahead of taxes and weak sales.
Wednesday escalated things fast. Oil crossed $100 a barrel after the U.S. attacked Iranian oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran responded with missile launches on U.S. bases in Jordan. Energy prices feeding into inflation is exactly what the Fed doesn't want to see right now. Add in a jobs market that keeps running hotter than expected, and the odds of a 25-basis point hike at the September Fed meeting shifted to around 62%.
Wednesday's PPI data made it worse. Producer prices jumped to 5.4% year over year for August — above July's 4.8% and above the 5.3% forecast. Core PPI, which strips out food and energy, rose 4.6%. The 10-Year Treasury yield hit a new 52-week high on the news.
The Iran conflict isn't going away, and as long as oil stays elevated, inflation has a floor.
A rate hike this month is looking more likely than not. If you have a purchase in mind, getting locked in sooner rather than later is worth a real conversation. DM me and let's run your numbers. đź“Š
