08/11/2026
Here’s a quick update on some of the economic data released this morning and what it could mean for the housing and mortgage markets.
Existing Home Sales
Existing home sales in July increased 1.7% to an annualized pace of 4.06 million units, slightly better than the 4.05 million units economists were expecting. June’s report was also revised higher, from 4.09 million to 4.13 million units.
On a year-over-year basis, sales are up 0.7%, while they are up 2.4% year-to-date. Sales increased in the Northeast, were essentially unchanged in the West, and declined in the Midwest and South.
While overall home sales remain much lower than we would like to see, they have been remarkably stable around these levels despite higher mortgage rates. That shows there is still underlying strength in the housing market. If mortgage rates were to move lower, we would likely see considerably more activity.
Housing Inventory & Home Values
Inventory fell nearly 2% last month to 1.54 million homes, and is down 0.6% from a year ago. Inventory remains relatively tight, which continues to provide support for home values.
Homes spent an average of 29 days on the market, compared with 28 days last month and at this time last year.
About 19% of homes sold above the asking price, down from 21% last year.
First-time buyers, who had shown considerable strength over the past two months at 35% and 33% of purchases, fell back to 29% in July.
Cash buyers accounted for 26% of transactions, down from 31% last year, while investors represented 14% of sales, down from 20% last year.
We also received home-value data from ICE showing that home values increased 0.2% in July after seasonal adjustments. On a year-over-year basis, home values are now up 1.5%, marking the fifth consecutive month of acceleration and the strongest annual growth rate in 14 months.
Labor Market
On the employment front, ADP’s weekly employment data showed an average of only about 8,000 jobs being created per week over the past four weeks. At that pace, it would translate to roughly 35,000 jobs over a full month.
The report has been consistently weakening over the past two months, which points toward a labor market that is softening rather than strengthening.
Tomorrow’s CPI Report
And then, of course, all eyes will be on tomorrow morning’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report.
The market is expecting the core CPI reading to come in at approximately 0.2% for the month, with the year-over-year figure declining from 2.6% to 2.5%.
Shelter will be an especially important component to watch because it makes up roughly 45% of the core CPI index. The last shelter reading was very tame at just 0.1%.
If we get another cooler-than-expected inflation reading tomorrow, that would likely be friendly for the bond market and could help mortgage rates make some progress within their current range. It could also potentially allow yields to test some important technical levels.
As always, mortgage pricing can change throughout the day based on market movement, so if you're considering buying, refinancing, or simply want to know where rates stand, I'm always happy to run updated numbers based on the most current pricing.