10/03/2025
The third quarter of 2025 is officially in the record books. U.S. stocks extended the strong performance seen earlier in the year, with the S&P 500 finishing the quarter up nearly 8%. Small caps outperformed their large-cap peers, as the Russell 2000 gained more than 12%, its best quarter since 2023.
Contrary to the idea that market gains are concentrated in a few large stocks, the Q3 advance was broad-based. Every sector of the S&P 500 finished the quarter higher except consumer staples. Technology led the charge, followed closely by consumer discretionary, both posting double-digit gains.
International equities also made significant strides despite a strengthening U.S. dollar. The MSCI EAFE Index rose 4%, while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index gained 10%.
After a nine-month pause, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in September. This move was unusual given that equity indexes were near all-time highs, as the Fed typically eases during periods of economic weakness. Historically, rate cuts in this context have been followed by higher markets one year later, although short-term volatility is common. Bonds benefited, with the Bloomberg
U.S. Aggregate Bond Index up 2%.
Precious metals continued their rally. Silver rose 29%, platinum gained 19%, and gold advanced 16.5%, reaching record highs of over $3,800 by the end of the quarter.
As we enter Q4, domestic equities remain at the top of the asset class rankings in our Tactical Allocation Process (TAP)l, with international equities close behind. Technology continues to lead sector performance, and the broad market strength suggests a continued risk-on environment.
Looking Ahead: This quarter reflects a rare alignment of market momentum, central bank policy, and investor risk appetite. Rate cuts near market highs historically set the stage for continued equity strength, but volatility is inevitable. Maintaining a disciplined process and adapting to changing conditions remains key. The current signals are risk-on — the challenge is turning that into results.
Please be aware that the content of this newsletter is based on the opinion of Balser Wealth Management, LLC. The performance numbers in this article do not reflect transaction costs. Indexes are not available for direct investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results and there is no assurance that any forecasts mentioned in this report will be attained.
Stocks offer growth potential but are subject to market fluctuations. Dividends are not guaranteed; companies can reduce or eliminate their dividend at any time. There are special risks associated with an investment in real estate, including credit risk, interest rate fluctuations and the impact of varied economic conditions.
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