https://www.umortgage.com/originators/1965945/andrew-meister

Andrew Meister - Loan Officer, Atlanta, GA (2026)

03/03/2025

🏡 This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast: Week of March 3rd

▶ 𝙇𝙖𝙨𝙩 𝙒𝙚𝙚𝙠'𝙨 𝙈𝙤𝙧𝙩𝙜𝙖𝙜𝙚 𝙍𝙖𝙩𝙚 𝙍𝙚𝙘𝙖𝙥: Rates moved lower 👍

Another week of underwhelming economic data has helped the 10-year yield and mortgage rates slowly slide lower for the third consecutive week.

Last week’s big market mover, our PCE inflation report, came in right in line with expectations, with headline inflation dropping to 2.5% and core inflation declining to 2.6% year-over-year. Also, within that report, spending dropped 0.2%, indicating that consumers feel the pinch of a tightening economy. The figures in this report helped the 10-year drop to below 4.2% as of this morning.

▶ 𝙏𝙝𝙞𝙨 𝙒𝙚𝙚𝙠'𝙨 𝙈𝙤𝙧𝙩𝙜𝙖𝙜𝙚 𝙍𝙖𝙩𝙚 𝙁𝙤𝙧𝙚𝙘𝙖𝙨𝙩: 𝘙𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘴 𝘊𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥 𝘔𝘰𝘷𝘦 𝘓𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘳 𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘞𝘦𝘦𝘬 📈

The biggest pieces of data this week are Wednesday’s ADP employment report and Friday’s BLS jobs report. Markets estimate 143,000 jobs created in the ADP report, a 40,000 drop from last month’s report. The more pivotal BLS report on Friday is projected to show the unemployment rate rising to 4.1%.

Any time we’ve seen significant mortgage rate movements in the last two years, it’s been driven by drops in employment figures. It’s no different in 2025; if government and private sector layoffs continue to show up in the employment data, we should see rates continue to slide lower.

03/03/2025

Check out what people are saying about me on my Google business page 😊

10/28/2024

🏡 𝙈𝙤𝙧𝙩𝙜𝙖𝙜𝙚 𝙍𝙖𝙩𝙚 𝙁𝙤𝙧𝙚𝙘𝙖𝙨𝙩 - 𝙒𝙚𝙚𝙠 𝙤𝙛 𝙊𝙘𝙩𝙤𝙗𝙚𝙧 𝟸𝟾ᴛʜ

𝙇𝙖𝙨𝙩 𝙒𝙚𝙚𝙠'𝙨 𝙈𝙤𝙧𝙩𝙜𝙖𝙜𝙚 𝙍𝙖𝙩𝙚 𝙍𝙚𝙘𝙖𝙥: 𝘙𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘴 𝘚𝘵𝘢𝘺𝘦𝘥 𝘚𝘵𝘦𝘢𝘥𝘺 👍

Last week was another quiet week without much new data to move mortgage rates lower. In each of the previous 3 years, we’ve seen the 10-year move much higher in the first three weeks of October before a drop in the final weeks of the year. We’re hoping to see that trend continue as we head into November, although it will largely depend on the data we see in the week ahead.

𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐖𝐞𝐞𝐤'𝐬 𝐌𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐠𝐚𝐠𝐞 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐅𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐭: 𝘙𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘴 𝘸𝘪𝘭𝘭 𝘣𝘦 𝘷𝘰𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘭𝘦 📈

As appropriately said by MBS Highway, this Halloween week, we have a Monster Mash of inflation, jobs, and housing data that will make a busy week for mortgage rates and the housing market; especially on the heels of next week’s Fed Meeting. This week we have PCE, the Feds favorite inflation report, coming out Thursday, and a slew of jobs data points throughout the week. Inflation, and specifically the jobs data, will be significant market movers.

𝙒𝙝𝙖𝙩'𝙨 𝘼𝙛𝙛𝙚𝙘𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙍𝙖𝙩𝙚𝙨 𝙏𝙝𝙞𝙨 𝙒𝙚𝙚𝙠:

-PCE report. PCE data is due this Thursday. Year-over-year is expected to come in at 2.1%, which is just shy of the Fed's 2% goal. Although the Fed has stated that its focus is shifting from inflation to jobs, this report could still be a market mover, albeit, not as much as the jobs data will be.

-Jobs data. We have a slew of job data points coming out this week. Job openings come out on Tuesday, ADP employment on Wednesday, initial jobless claims on Thursday, and finally the U.S. employment and unemployment reports on Friday. Since the Fed has telegraphed that its focus has shifted from inflation to jobs, these reports will be significant market movers.

-The U.S. Election. As with every cycle, election years tend to be more uncertain from a market perspective. With the election being only two weeks away, this adds some additional volatility to the market.

10/22/2024

🏡 𝙈𝙤𝙧𝙩𝙜𝙖𝙜𝙚 𝙍𝙖𝙩𝙚 𝙁𝙤𝙧𝙚𝙘𝙖𝙨𝙩 - 𝙒𝙚𝙚𝙠 𝙤𝙛 𝙊𝙘𝙩𝙤𝙗𝙚𝙧 21st

𝙇𝙖𝙨𝙩 𝙒𝙚𝙚𝙠'𝙨 𝙈𝙤𝙧𝙩𝙜𝙖𝙜𝙚 𝙍𝙖𝙩𝙚 𝙍𝙚𝙘𝙖𝙥: 𝘙𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘴 𝘙𝘰𝘴𝘦 𝘚𝘭𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵𝘺 👎

Last week saw rates tick up again, ever so slightly. But not for any 𝘰𝘯𝘦 particular reason. Explanations being proposed have to do with a combination of changing election probabilities, anticipated policy effects, complex timing factors in the options market, and circulating research reports on U.S. deficits.

However, we did see some positive housing data that suggested increased supply and healthy demand. We’ve had 3 consecutive weeks of positive year-over-year growth in purchase application data and pending contract data. There’s also been another week of inventory growth; we currently sit 33% higher than we did this time last year. So it's not all bad news.

𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐖𝐞𝐞𝐤'𝐬 𝐌𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐠𝐚𝐠𝐞 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐅𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐭: 𝘙𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘴 𝘤𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥 𝘣𝘦 𝘷𝘰𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘭𝘦 📈

This will we will see two primary market movers. First, various Fed members are set to make media appearances this week. Second, initial jobless claims on come out Thursday.
Overall, we don't expect these to be massive market movers. But they could produce some volatility in the market.

Next week is action-packed and could change the market’s direction if we get favorable data from the various employment reports and our PCE report between October 29th and November 1st. This data will be instrumental to the Fed’s decision in their November 7th meeting. So definitely keep your eyes open for the upcoming weeks and news surrounding the data points mentioned.

10/14/2024

🏡 𝙈𝙤𝙧𝙩𝙜𝙖𝙜𝙚 𝙍𝙖𝙩𝙚 𝙁𝙤𝙧𝙚𝙘𝙖𝙨𝙩 - 𝙒𝙚𝙚𝙠 𝙤𝙛 𝙊𝙘𝙩𝙤𝙗𝙚𝙧 14𝙩𝙝

𝙇𝙖𝙨𝙩 𝙒𝙚𝙚𝙠'𝙨 𝙈𝙤𝙧𝙩𝙜𝙖𝙜𝙚 𝙍𝙖𝙩𝙚 𝙍𝙚𝙘𝙖𝙥: 𝘙𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘴 𝘙𝘰𝘴𝘦 𝘚𝘭𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵𝘺 👎

Rates continued to rise last week as the markets digested the labor growth that we saw the week prior. They ticked slightly higher at the end of the week as our two inflation reports, CPI and PPI, had figures come in higher than economists’ expectations.

Overall, inflation is still trending in the right direction, and graphs rarely show these sorts of figures moving downward in a straight line.

𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐖𝐞𝐞𝐤'𝐬 𝐌𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐠𝐚𝐠𝐞 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐅𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐭: 𝘙𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘴 𝘚𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥 𝘉𝘦 𝘚𝘵𝘦𝘢𝘥𝘺 👍

This week will bring plenty of housing data to help us better understand how homebuyers have reacted to this short-term rise in rates. Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) was released last week and showed that homebuyer confidence increased in September to its highest level in more than two years. While rates likely won’t drop significantly until next year, this confidence boost bodes well for a strong market in the near future.

09/16/2024

🏡 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 | 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗦𝗲𝗽𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟭𝟲𝘁𝗵

▶ 𝐋𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐖𝐞𝐞𝐤'𝐬 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐑𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐩: Rates Stayed Steady 🎉

The CPI report for August revealed a modest increase in prices, suggesting that inflationary pressures are moderating. This development, combined with previous economic indicators pointing to a slowing labor market, has strengthened the case for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

As a result, mortgage rates have generally stayed steady. As we've said before, the market is always ahead of the Fed. Right now, the market is already pricing in at least a 25bps rate cut to the Federal funds rate which means current rates already reflect a rate cut. That will be an important consideration for the week ahead.

▶ 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸’𝘀 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: Rates Should Stay Steady 🔥

The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting this week will be watched closely by investors and market participants. The Fed is widely expected to announce a rate cut to stimulate economic growth and mitigate the potential risks of a recession. If the Fed delivers a rate cut as anticipated, we can expect mortgage rates to stay steady. However, any unexpected developments or shifts in the Fed’s outlook could lead to volatility in the market.

8s

09/09/2024

🏡 𝘔𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘨𝘢𝘨𝘦 𝘙𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘍𝘰𝘳𝘦𝘤𝘢𝘴𝘵 - 𝘞𝘦𝘦𝘬 𝘰𝘧 𝘚𝘦𝘱𝘵𝘦𝘮𝘣𝘦𝘳 9𝘵𝘩

▶ 𝐋𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐖𝐞𝐞𝐤'𝐬 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐑𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐩: 𝘙𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘴 𝘊𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘶𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘰 𝘋𝘳𝘰𝘱 💥

Three out of last week’s 4 pieces of labor data came in slightly softer than expected, which helped the 10-year yield drop below 3.8% and brought mortgage rates down slightly. The three employment reports that showed month-over-month job creation all came in lower than expectations. Most notably, the ADP report showed 99,000 jobs created—the lowest reading in this report since the pandemic. As a result of this employment data, bonds continued to drop, and spreads remained favorable for this drop to continue.

At this point, it's important to note that current rates already reflect the market pricing in several future rate cuts from the Fed, at least a few over the coming months. What that means is, that although rates will likely continue to ease over the next several months, there won't be massive drops every time the Fed cuts its funds rate.

Unless there are significant signs of severe economic turmoil, we'll see interest rate improvements be slower and more gradual as opposed to sharply declining.

▶ 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸’𝘀 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝘙𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘴 𝘚𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥 𝘚𝘵𝘢𝘺 𝘚𝘵𝘦𝘢𝘥𝘺 👏

The only significant piece of data that we are expecting to see this week is Wednesday’s CPI report. Although inflation data still matters, the Fed is beginning to switch gears and focus more on ensuring job market stability. This means the jobs data moving forward will play a more prominent role in rate decisions from the Fed. Given the relatively weak jobs data from last week, it is likely they will begin cutting rates this month and continue to do so.

As things stand, there is a very high chance that we see a 25bps rate cut during the Fed Meeting next week. This rate cut is already reflected in mortgage pricing, so things should remain steady for the next couple of weeks.

08/26/2024

🏡 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁 - 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗔𝘂𝗴𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝟮𝟲𝘁𝗵

𝗟𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽: 𝘙𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘴 𝘋𝘳𝘰𝘱𝘱𝘦𝘥 𝘝𝘦𝘳𝘺 𝘚𝘭𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵𝘭𝘺 🎉

Rates stayed largely unchanged until last Friday, with the market holding its breath for insight from Jerome Powell regarding the Fed’s approach to this changing economy during his speech at Jackson Hole. He followed through on expectations after signaling a rate cut on the near horizon most probably starting in September. Rates dropped slightly as a result.

𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐖𝐞𝐞𝐤'𝐬 𝐌𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐠𝐚𝐠𝐞 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐅𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐭: 𝘙𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘴 𝘚𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥 𝘚𝘵𝘢𝘺 𝘚𝘵𝘦𝘢𝘥𝘺 👍

Last week gave us insight into the likelihood of a rate cut in September, and this week will help us gauge how many we can reasonably expect this year. Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index report, which is the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation, is our biggest piece of data.

The market is anticipating low monthly readings which will be favorable for the potential of multiple rate cuts. If these anticipated figures come to fruition, we could see rates continue to ease going into September.

08/21/2024

Grateful to have helped these folks get their new home! I always appreciate the feedback. It helps me get better every day.

Also, special thanks and shout out to Matt Leigh - Realtor for being such a great partner and repping our clients so well!

08/19/2024

🏡 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁 - 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗔𝘂𝗴𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝟭𝟵𝘁𝗵

▶ 𝐋𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐖𝐞𝐞𝐤'𝐬 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐑𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐩: 𝘙𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘴 𝘚𝘵𝘢𝘺𝘦𝘥 𝘚𝘵𝘦𝘢𝘥𝘺 👏

Last week was a mixed bag for economic data. On Wednesday, the July CPI report came in below expectations with year-over-year inflation decreasing by 0.1% to 2.9% However, positive labor data in the initial jobless claims countered the positive inflation report rates-wise and kept them mostly flat.

▶ 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸’𝘀 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝘙𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘴 𝘊𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥 𝘣𝘦 𝘝𝘰𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘭𝘦 📈

We have a busy week full of economic data and rhetoric that could continue to shift the market. On Wednesday, we will get the Fed Minutes from the July meeting, providing a little extra insight. The big mover, however, will be the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole meeting on Thursday and Friday. Jerome Powell will have the eyes of the economy on him on Friday when he speaks; many are expecting him to lay the groundwork for at least a 25bps cut in September. What he says and how he delivers it will surely cause the market to react, so expect some volatility near the end of the week.

Andrew Meister - Loan Officer

03/03/2025

03/03/2025

10/28/2024

10/22/2024

10/14/2024

09/16/2024

09/09/2024

08/26/2024

08/21/2024

08/19/2024

Address

Website

Alerts

Contact The Business

Shortcuts

Share

Category