10/02/2026
LPL research provided this stat while I was at their conference in Seattle 🌲 🏔️ this week and thought it was worth sharing;
The months prior to midterm election years have historically been some of the more volatile and uncertain periods for the stock market. With elections, changing policy expectations and plenty of headlines, it’s understandable that investors can feel uneasy.
But here’s the intriguing part; history shows that once that uncertainty is removed markets tend to perform well. Looking back at the 19 U.S. midterm elections since 1957, the S&P 500 was higher 12 months after every single midterm election — 19 out of 19 times. The median return over those 12-month periods was 15.1%.
History provides perspective but it shouldn’t be mistaken for a guarantee. Every market cycle is different, and economic conditions, interest rates, inflation and corporate earnings can have a much greater impact on markets over time than an election alone.
The takeaway is a simple one: volatility and uncertainty are part of investing — but they don't necessarily change the longer-term story.
As we head into another midterm election cycle, it’s a good reminder to stay focused on your financial plan rather than getting caught up in the headlines or short-term market movement.
