Steve Hill, The Mortgage Scientist

04/07/2026

We believe clients should feel fully informed in every decision. It means a lot to be recognized for our transparency and communication. 🛰️

04/07/2026

02/09/2026

🚨 Heads up on these mortgage mailers 🚨�I’ve seen a lot of really smart people get fooled by these lately, and honestly, I get it. They’re designed to be confusing.
Here’s what I look at when one of these shows up 👇

1️⃣ Check who it’s from�If it says “not associated with your current lender,” just toss it.�These are telemarketing refi shops with huge overhead. Those mailers aren’t cheap, and they make that money back by charging borrowers way more — usually 3–5x what a broker charges.

2️⃣ The wording is intentional�“Confidential,” “new program,” “pre-selected” — all red flags.�They’re pulling your info from public records to make it feel official. There’s nothing new here. It’s the same low rate / high fee setup that’s been around forever.

3️⃣ Rate vs APR�This is where you really see what’s going on.�When the APR is almost 1% higher than the rate, that means serious fees. I ran the numbers on this one — roughly $37k in fees.

4️⃣ The payment shown�It’s principal and interest only.�No taxes, insurance, or PMI. Most people don’t catch that — it’s just there to get the phone to ring.

5️⃣ The equity math doesn’t work�They’re using an unrealistic home value.�This home is closer to $430–440k. Cash-out refis cap at 80%, so pulling $61k would require a value closer to $580k.

If you’re thinking about refinancing, that’s fine — just don’t respond to these. Call around or talk to a broker who actually explains the numbers.

01/09/2026

Mortgage rates dropped 0.75 to 1% in price today - which is fee. Meaning if you’re shopping for a 700,000 mortgage, it’s $7,000 cheaper today.

Rates are down 0.25 to 0.5% based on Trumps tweet about buying $200 billion in MBS.

This is exactly why rates got absurdly low during COVID, the Fed bought $1.3 trillion MBS.

$200 billion won’t bring back 3% rates, but will make a huge difference.

01/06/2026

Builder incentives like $10k–$20k sound great… but they’re not always what they seem.

Sometimes the builder gives you a credit, then charges it back through higher rates, points, or extra fees. How good the deal really is depends on how fast those homes are selling.

In slow markets, builders may buy rates down aggressively (even to 1.99% or 2.99%) because moving inventory matters more than margin. In hot markets, incentives often get clawed back.

This is why I always recommend getting a second opinion before assuming a builder deal is “free money.”

09/25/2025

If you’re one of the 397 people following me, you heard about this a week ago.

This article from WSJ is a fantastic explanation on why mortgages rates don’t always follow Fed rate moves.

The good news here is rates are still hovering near 12 month lows, I’m still seeing rates at 5.875% and 5.99% - which was unthinkable a few months ago. Although rates will be dropping more slowly, rates are in a very good spot right now.

Some choice quotes…

“Interest rates on mortgages are expected to climb by the end of the year despite the cuts”

“the central bank doesn’t set mortgage rates”

“Mortgage rates aren’t set by the Fed, so don’t bet on any major drops soon.”

“The average rate on a standard, 30-year fixed mortgage has drifted down in recent weeks to 6.26%, the lowest level in nearly a year. But the figure isn’t expected to veer far from the 6% to 7% range it has been stuck in.”

“The Fed’s moves target short-term interest rates. Mortgage rates, on the other hand, tend to move loosely with yields on longer-term, 10-year Treasurys. Those yields rise and fall based on expectations for the economy. “

“Last year, mortgage rates slid in anticipation of a Fed rate cut that September, only to rise afterward because investors at the time had forecast continued economic growth and inflation.”

“We are going to potentially be waiting six months, 12 months or possibly longer for rates to come down even 1 or more percent.”

09/17/2025

Mortgage rates are increasing after the Fed announcement, which is exactly what I predicted based on last Septembers meeting.

How can this be?

The first thing to understand is, the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates. Mortgage lenders set mortgage rates.

The Fed sets the Federal funds rate, which governs large ($100M+) overnight loans.

This “loosely” impacts mortgage rates, but lots of other things affect mortgage rates - mainly what mortgage lenders think will happen in the future.

And today the Fed is forecasting only 1 rate cut in 2026 - which worries lenders - so rates go up.

The 0.25 rate cut today was at 91% probability, so that 0.25 was priced in to mortgage rates weeks ago. And just like last September, Powell came out with a stern message which worried the markets.

It’s a complicated world out there!

But the good news is rates today are lower than they’ve been in the last 12 months, I’m seeing 5.75% (5.989 APR) for conventional loans, and I don’t think that’s ending anytime soon.

09/17/2025

Mortgage rates are increasing after the Fed announcement, which is exactly what I predicted based on last Septembers meeting.

How can this be?

The first thing to understand is, the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates. Mortgage lenders set mortgage rates.

The Fed sets the Federal funds rate, which governs larger ($100M+) overnight loans.

This “loosely” impacts mortgage rates, but lots of other things affect mortgage rates - mainly what mortgage lenders think will happen in the future.

And today the Fed is forecasting only 1 rate cut in 2026 - which worries lenders - so rates go up.

The 0.25 rate cut today was at 91% probability, so that 0.25 was priced in to mortgage rates weeks ago. And just like last September, Powell came out with a stern message which worried the markets.

It’s a complicated world out there! But the good news is rates today are lower than they’ve been in the last 12 months, I’m seeing 5.75% (5.989 APR) for conventional loans, and I don’t think that’s ending anytime soon.