02/10/2023
How do markets perform when the Fed pauses?
• Over the past 40 years the Fed has paused seven times after concluding a tightening cycle. Following the final rate hike, policymakers held rates steady for about six months on average (ranging from a month to a little over year) before proceeding to cut rates to stimulate the economy.
• Stocks performed strongly in five of these instances, while they declined only modestly the other two. Investment-grade bonds also experienced above-average returns, as yields peaked a couple of months before the last rate hike.
• Likely benefiting from the easing in yields and financial conditions, technology was the best-performing sector, with the exception of the Fed pause in 2000 that coincided with the tech bubble bursting.
• History suggests that a Fed pause can be a catalyst for lower bond yields and higher equity valuations. This is consistent with our view that balanced portfolios, like a 60/40 stock-bond mix, are poised for a rebound after a historically tough year.
