Rick Veldman at Benchmark Mortgage

09/01/2026

Jobs, rates and affordability are back in focus as markets look toward the Fed’s September meeting. Here’s what buyers, homeowners and industry professionals should be watching this week.

NATIONAL MARKET UPDATE

Active inventory reached 1.14 million homes, its highest level since 2019, while the median asking price slipped to $420,000. Homes are selling slightly faster than last year, suggesting sellers who price realistically are still finding buyers.

Homebuyer affordability improved in July, with the median mortgage payment falling to $2,175. Consumer credit also remains healthy, with the average U.S. FICO score holding steady at 714.

Mortgage delinquencies eased again in July, with fewer new defaults and more borrowers getting back on track—a positive sign that homeowners are weathering today’s higher-cost environment.

THIS WEEK'S FORECAST

JOBS TAKE CENTER STAGE...This week’s employment reports will give us a clearer picture of the economy and could have a direct impact on mortgage rates. Signs of slower hiring could help bring rates down, while stronger job growth could keep borrowing costs elevated. Friday’s August jobs report will be the biggest event to watch as we head toward the Fed’s September meeting.

REVIEW OF LAST WEEK

RATES STEAL SPOTLIGHT...Stocks ended the week higher, helped by corporate earnings and economic growth. Friday brought some caution as investors worried that stubborn inflation could keep interest rates elevated longer than hoped.

Bond yields moved higher Friday, putting renewed pressure on borrowing costs. For housing, the takeaway is simple: mortgage rates may have a harder time moving meaningfully lower until inflation shows more improvement.

Homebuyer payments declined in July, mortgage delinquencies improved, and consumer credit remained stable, suggesting households are holding up despite today's higher costs.

The week ended with the Dow up 0.5%, to 53,560; the S&P 500 up 0.5%, to 7,712; and the Nasdaq up 0.8%, to 26,402.

More inventory and lower asking prices are giving buyers leverage, but higher mortgage rates continue to limit demand and keep many homeowners from making a move.

DID YOU KNOW...A record 60.1% of home-shopping traffic across the nation's 100 largest metros is now directed toward homes outside the shopper's current metro, up from 48.2% before the pandemic.

FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. Warsh's Jackson Hole speech changed the conversation heading into September. He reaffirmed the Fed's 2% inflation target and left the door open to another rate increase if inflation doesn't improve.Note: In the lower chart, the 66.1% probability of change means there’s a 33.9% probability the rate will stay the same.

Current rate is 3.50%-3.75%.

08/29/2026

When's the last time someone told you what your house is worth?

Not what some online estimate says. Not what your neighbor's place sold for. What your house is actually worth today.

If you're like most people, it's been years. And that number is worth a second look, especially now because it also tells you how much equity you have.

Data shows homeowners have an average of about $311k of equity today. That’s six figures. Once you sell, you can use that to put more money down or even buy your next house in cash.

So, today’s rates and prices may not be holding you back as much as you think.

If you're even thinking about what's next, let's talk. I’d be happy to do a free equity assessment and show you exactly what you're working with.

The number might just change what you thought was possible.

08/25/2026

Inventory, bond yields, inflation signals and mortgage rates are all shaping the housing market heading into fall. Here’s what buyers and industry professionals should be watching this week.

NATIONAL MARKET UPDATE

Active inventory climbed 3.6% from a year ago and reached its highest level since November 2019, giving buyers more choices heading into fall. Homes also matched or beat last year’s selling pace for a 12th straight week.

Listing prices fell 1.3% from a year ago to $424,500. Softer asking prices are giving buyers more negotiating room, while sellers appear to be adjusting more realistically to current market conditions.

Mortgage credit conditions remain fundamentally healthy, with consumers continuing to show solid payment discipline. That provides an encouraging foundation even as affordability and elevated mortgage rates remain hurdles.

THIS WEEK'S FORECAST

RATES, INFLATION, HOUSING...

Markets will keep a close eye on bond yields, inflation signals, and fresh housing data this week. With long-term rates elevated, cooler price pressures could help ease mortgage rates, while continued economic strength could keep yields higher. For housing, growing inventory and softer asking prices are giving buyers more negotiating room heading into fall, and steadier borrowing costs could help bring more buyers off the sidelines.

REVIEW OF LAST WEEK

Stocks pulled back as long-term Treasury yields climbed, increasing pressure on borrowing costs. The 30-year Treasury yield briefly reached its highest level since 2007, a reminder that elevated bond yields could keep mortgage rates higher and continue weighing on buyer affordability.

The biggest concern remained interest rates. Oil moved back above $85 amid Middle East uncertainty, while heavy government and corporate borrowing added upward pressure to long-term yields and renewed questions about inflation.

The economy continued to show resilience. Business activity reached its strongest reading since March 2022, consumer spending remained solid, and second-quarter corporate earnings continued to outperform expectations.

The week ended with the Dow down 0.8%, to 53,277; the S&P 500 down 1.4%, to 7,674; and the Nasdaq down 2.1%, to 26,180.

Bond markets remained volatile as long-term Treasury yields moved higher. Higher yields kept pressure on mortgage rates, with inflation uncertainty, oil prices and increased debt supply all contributing to the move.

DID YOU KNOW

Homes for sale are approaching 1.2 million nationally—the most since late 2019—giving today’s buyers a selection of homes that hasn’t been available since before the pandemic.

FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. Inflation and employment data have eased expectations for more Fed tightening, but elevated bond yields remain the bigger challenge for mortgage rates. Note: In the lower chart, the 40.1% probability of change means there’s a 59.9% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 3.50%-3.75%.

Thoughts? Questions? Comment below or DM me.

08/22/2026

Mortgage rates aren’t random. They’re affected by 2 numbers.

The 10-year treasury yield and something called "the spread." That's the gap between the 10-year treasury yield and mortgage rates, and it usually sits around 1.76 percentage points.

Back in 2023, the gap in the spread ballooned up to 3.19 in response to economic uncertainty. If it were still that wide today, rates would be pushing almost 8%.

But the good news is the gap has narrowed to 2.01 (a lot closer to the long-term norm). And that’s a big positive for rates. It’s why today’s mortgage rate is in the upper 6s instead of touching 8%.

Here's the part a lot of people miss. Where rates are right now are already pretty close to what a totally normal spread would produce – a mortgage rate around 6.5%.

In other words, the fact that the spread has narrowed in recent years has helped mortgage rates. Sure, they’re still higher than you may want, but it could be worse.

Not sure where to start? Visit my website to schedule a call, get pre-approved, or check out my blog.

08/18/2026

Inventory, inflation, mortgage credit availability and the Fed are all shaping the market heading into fall. Here’s what buyers, sellers and industry professionals should be watching this week.

NATIONAL MARKET UPDATE

Active inventory rose 3.2% and approached 1.2 million homes, its highest level since November 2019. Homes sold at the same pace as last year for an eleventh consecutive week of matching or beating year-ago speed.

Mortgage delinquencies improved slightly during the second quarter, falling to 4.37% of outstanding residential loans. The improvement points to continued resilience among homeowners despite elevated borrowing costs.

Mortgage credit availability reached its highest level in four years in July, expanding financing options after tightening in June. Greater credit availability could give qualified buyers another tailwind as the market heads toward fall.

THIS WEEK'S FORECAST

HOUSING, JOBS, THE FED...Markets will watch fresh housing reports, weekly unemployment claims and Fed commentary for clues about the economy and interest rates. After cooler inflation and weaker July hiring, investors will be looking for further evidence that price pressures are easing without a sharper economic slowdown. For housing, the combination of improving inventory, greater mortgage credit availability and some recent rate relief could help buyers heading into fall. Continued moderation in inflation would also reduce pressure on Treasury yields and potentially give mortgage rates more room to settle.

REVIEW OF LAST WEEK

INFLATION COOLS...Inflation eased last week, lowering expectations for another Federal Reserve rate increase. That’s welcome news for housing, where less pressure on interest rates could help mortgage rates stabilize and give buyers more confidence to move forward.

Inflation remains above the Fed’s target, while geopolitical uncertainty and energy prices remain volatile. Still, consumer and wholesale inflation showed signs of moderation, giving policymakers more room to remain patient.

The broader economy continues to show resilience. Consumer spending remains solid, retail sales were 4.7% above year-ago levels, and corporate earnings expectations continue strengthening across a wider range of industries.

The week ended with the Dow down 0.6%, to 53,732, the S&P 500 up 0.4%, to 7,786, and the Nasdaq up 0.1%, to 26,729.

Bond yields eased as cooler inflation reduced expectations for another Federal Reserve rate increase. The move helped relieve pressure on mortgage rates, which fell to their lowest level in nearly four weeks.

DID YOU KNOW...Homes for sale are now at their highest level since November 2019—nearly double the pandemic-era low reached in August 2021.

FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. Cooler inflation and July’s weaker employment report have reduced pressure on policymakers to raise rates in September. Before the September 16 Fed meeting, officials will have inflation and employment data before deciding their next policy move. Note: In the lower chart, the 30.6% probability of change means there’s a 69.4% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 3.50%-3.75%.

Not sure where to start? Visit my website to schedule a call, get pre-approved, or check out my blog.

08/15/2026

For the 14th year in a row, Americans say real estate is the best long-term investment.

Think about that.

Through rising rates, market swings, and all the noise, real estate keeps taking the top spot. That kind of staying power is hard to argue with.

And it makes sense.

A home is the one investment that grows your wealth and gives you a place to build your life.

So, what would you pick as the best long-term investment? Drop it in the comments.

And if buying a home is on your mind, send me a message. Let’s talk about what that first step could look like.

08/11/2026

Your first home may have done more than give you a place to start. With starter homes still in demand and equity built over time, it may also help open the door to what comes next.

https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/2026/07/23/the-house-that-started-it-all-could-kickstart-whats-next

Remember how exciting it was to buy your first place?

08/08/2026

Think no one’s buying right now? Think again. Just over 4 million homes are expected to sell this year.

Do some math and that's roughly 8 every single minute.

08/04/2026

Stuck deciding between buying a home now and holding out for the “perfect” mortgage rate?

The truth is, trying to time the market rarely works. Home prices, mortgage rates, and inflation are all outside your control.

And if you wait for all of them to line up just right, you may be waiting a long time.

My advice? If you want or need to move, look at your own numbers instead.

Because whether it's a good time to buy really comes down to your financial situation.

Can you afford the monthly payment?

Do you have enough money left over as a safety net?

What about for repairs?

It’s not a bad time to buy if the math makes sense for you. And that’s true no matter what you’re hearing about the market right now.

Connect with a trusted lender to run the numbers, then let’s chat.

08/01/2026

The foreclosure headlines may sound alarming. Here’s why you shouldn’t panic. Far fewer homes are starting the foreclosure process today compared to 2008.

So, even with the recent uptick, foreclosure starts are down about 82% from where they were in 2008.

And that means we’re a long way from crash territory.