06/09/2026
This week’s market focus is clear: inflation data, consumer sentiment, and the Fed outlook could shape expectations heading into summer.
NATIONAL MARKET UPDATE
Inventory continued to exceed, year-ago levels, giving buyers more options even as the pace of growth has slowed. Homes are now selling at the same pace as a year ago, signaling that buyer demand remains steady despite affordability challenges.
Asking prices declined for the 20th consecutive week compared to a year ago, extending a trend of sellers adjusting expectations and pricing more competitively from the start. This shift is helping keep the market moving even as mortgage rates remain elevated.
Investor home purchases fell 6% in the first quarter, reaching their lowest level since 2020. Fewer investor purchases may create additional opportunities for owner-occupant buyers competing for available homes.
THIS WEEK'S FORECAST
CPI, CONSUMER SENTIMENT, FED OUTLOOK…
Markets will focus on upcoming inflation data and consumer sentiment readings for clues about the economy’s direction and future interest rate policy. Investors will be watching closely for signs that price pressures are easing. Housing inventory continues to improve and buyer demand remains steady, but mortgage rates remain a key affordability challenge. Inflation data will likely play a major role in shaping market expectations heading into summer.
REVIEW OF LAST WEEK
JOBS JOLT MARKETS…
Stocks fell sharply last week as a stronger-than-expected jobs report pushed Treasury yields higher and reduced expectations for near-term interest rate relief.
Bond yields climbed as investors reassessed the outlook for monetary policy following evidence of continued labor market strength. Markets reacted to the possibility that elevated interest rates could remain in place longer than previously anticipated.
Despite the market pullback, economic fundamentals remain solid. Employment growth continues to support consumer spending, while housing demand has remained steady even as mortgage rates stay elevated.
The week ended with the Dow down 1.4%, to 50,867, the S&P 500 down 2.6%, to 7,384, and the Nasdaq down 4.2%, to 25,709.
Bond markets sold off as Treasury yields moved higher following the jobs report. Mortgage rates also edged up, reinforcing affordability challenges for some prospective homebuyers.
DID YOU KNOW...
Investor home purchases fell 6% in the first quarter, reaching their lowest level since 2020. With fewer investors competing for homes, some buyers may find less competition in today’s market.
FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. Strong labor market data has tempered expectations for near-term rate relief, reinforcing the Fed’s cautious approach to policy changes. Note: In the lower chart, the 2.0% probability of change means there’s a 98.0% probability the rate will stay the same.
Current rate is 3.50%-3.75%.