Financial Broadway Uganda

05/02/2021

Today, the US is going to release it's Nonfarm payrolls which indicates the jobs created per month. Ever since coronavirus was declared a pandemic, the US economy was falling month after month due to closure of their major bussiness sector's. Now that some of the businesses are open, it means that jobs have been created which is good for the US economy. Let's expect the USD to be strong/ bullish ahead of the report release which is at 16:30 East African time.

05/02/2021

GOLD PRICE ANALYSIS: XAU/USD STAYS EN ROUTE $1,777 ON NFP DAY – CONFLUENCE DETECTOR

Gold consolidates the heaviest losses in over a month around $1,795 during early Friday. The yellow metal dropped to a nine-week low the previous day before recovering from $1,785.

While the broad US dollar gains remain on the table, which has been weighing on gold prices off-late, the pre-NFP trading lull seems to challenge the commodity trading by press time. That said, the US dollar index (DXY) rises to a fresh high since December 01 while the market’s risk barometer in Asia, S&P 500 Future, also prints mild gains.

Moving on, the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and Unemployment Rate for January will be the key for the global markets amid hopes of recovery in the world’s largest economy.

Despite the recent corrective pullback, gold remains below the key resistance area around $1,805, not to mention the adjacent hurdle near $1,797. As a result, sellers are well directed towards Pivot Point 1 support on the monthly chart, near $1,777.

However, the previous day’s low around $1,785 can offer an intermediate halt during the fall. Also filtering the moves could be the third support of pivot on weekly formation around $1,781.

Meanwhile, the previous high on 4H and 15-minutes join 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the daily chart (1D) to guard immediate upside around $1,797.

Following that, the previous month’s low and SMA5 on 4H join 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level on 1D to highlight $1,804 as the resistance.

It should be noted that the pivot point support two on the weekly chart as well as SMA 100 on 15-minute play strengthens the resistance region around $1,805.

23/11/2020

WHEN IS AUSTRALIAN TRADE BALANCE AND HOW COULD IT AFFECT AUD/USD?

Early Tuesday morning in Asia, at 00:30 GMT, markets will see the preliminary reading of Australia’s October month Trade Balance numbers. Although tussles between Australia and China seem to have weighed on the Aussie trade numbers off-late, the recent recovery in the RBA’s refrain from negative rates may gain additional support on today’s data, if posting upbeat outcomes.

That said, the headline Trade Balance rose to 5630M in September while details marked Imports and Exports as having -5.9% and +3.9% respective figures for the stated month.

The trade numbers from an export-oriented economy becomes also important as it can give RBA’s Deputy Governor Guy Debelle to keep his cautious optimism while speaking around 02:30 GMT.

How could they affect AUD/USD?

Considering the AUD/USD pair’s multiple failures to refresh the monthly top on the daily closing basis, today’s Aussie Trade Balance data becomes important for the sellers ahead of the RBA’s Debelle’s speech. Should the headline figures print pessimistic figures, chatters concerning the US-led push to form a Western trade group to combat the China-backed trade alliance will gain momentum. The same could also offer RBA policymakers to rethink over their bullish bias. However, any positive surprise will be welcomed as risk-tone remains mildly upbeat amid vaccine hopes.

Technically, AUD/USD attempts to regain 0.7300 while extending its bounce off 0.7264 during the early Tuesday’s Asian session. The pair forms a short-term ascending triangle formation that currently restricts its moves between 0.7270 and 0.7340. Also acting as extra filters to the moves is the mid-September high of 0.7346 and 100-bar SMA near 0.7340. Considering the latest bearish signals from the MACD, coupled with repeated failures to provide a daily closing beyond the monthly high of 0.7340, bulls should wait for a clear break above 0.7346.

Keynotes

AUD/USD Forecast: Bulls still reluctant to push aussie higher

AUD/USD wavers below 0.7300 ahead of Aussie Trade Balance

08/08/2020

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10/07/2020

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10/07/2020

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07/07/2020

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07/07/2020

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06/07/2020

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04/07/2020

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