Qore Finance, 60 New Rachadapisek Road, Khlong Toei District, Bangkok (2026)

18/05/2026

11 May – 18 May Weekly Market View
by Clive Ponsonby , Head of FX, QORE Finance

Equities and Geopolitics

Hormuz being closed didn't seem to matter for markets, but today it does; there's a bit more to it than that, but sentiment for the first half of May was that everything was fine in spite of high oil prices, since late last week that has shifted to more "fear" than "greed" - whether this changes direction or just means a period of consolidation is unclear for now.

The Trump-Xi summit was broadly positive but very little concrete was announced and hopes that the US might get China to use their leverage over Iran to bring things to a conclusion were dashed, the fact that Trump seems to be in favour of escalation again and also using language to suggest he either doesn't mind that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed or expects it to be for some time also forced markets (and central banks?) to stop looking through the short term as it now looks to be a medium term situation.

Inflation and bond yields also inflicted some damage to sentiment, 10yr US yields +25bps on the week with Japan and UK yields jumping a little more (for their own reasons) and European yields 'only' +20bps - this just means chunky AI expenditure gets more expensive to fund, and future profits get discounted back more and are worth less today than they were a week ago, all hitting valuations.

NVDA results on Wednesday will therefore be pivotal for where markets go from here. Actions in the middle east are also likely to be volatile as there recent attacks seem to have intensified on both sides, although the Israel/Lebanon ceasefire seems to be holding for now.

FX Markets

US headline CPI, as well as Core CPI was above expectations with worrying trends reducing the likelihood of Fed cuts (notably "supercore" inflation which is Core services ex-housing at 3.4%), but the market didn't react too much until PPI came out the next day also much higher at +6% annually (vs +4.8% consensus) and then yields started accelerating, with 2yr +20bps and 10yr +25bps on the week.

US interest rate hikes were priced at zero for 2026 at the start of the week and although this had moved hawkishly from cuts being priced in, by Friday we are pricing in 60% chance of a hike by the end of 2026 in spite of Warsh being confirmed as the new Fed chair.

The dollar strengthened throughout the week, boosted by higher oil prices and US equity market exceptionalism still a net positive, anaemic growth in Europe reinforced the Euro market weakness as Eur/Usd traded to one-month lows.

Sterling was having a bad week in spite of a stronger GDP reading, but really capitulated when Andy Burnham's path to be the next UK Prime Minister was cleared with a sitting MP resigning allowing him a shot at a by-election (he has to be an MP to stand as leader); it will be no coronation as Wes Streeting has said he will stand for the leadership too, and we could have as many as four candidates - uncertainty will weigh on Sterling going forwards with Burnham seen as more left wing and fiscally loose which is a net negative for Gilts and the Pound, Streeting however has pitched himself as pro-Europe which has its own consequences.

Commodities and Crypto

Oil continues to trade higher, albeit gradually, but like boiling a frog the pain is slowly intensifying and being felt in different ways by different markets as shortages start to change behaviours.

Higher yields started to be a negative for risky and non-yielding assets which hurt Gold as the week went on, with Silver completely reversing a nice rally killing any bullish momentum that had been building up since late March.

It was a similar story in Crypto with BTC consolidating around 80k having had some bullish moves higher, but those were stopped and we reversed sharply over the weekend, ETH continues to trade even worse and we broke the one-month lows as well as trendline support on Friday; it was also notable that this was the first week of Bitcoin ETF outflows for several months.

Week ahead

As well as the ongoing situation in the middle east, the big driver will be Nvidia results on Wednesday 20th May after US markets close which could reaccelerate the equity market rally or dash any last hopes of the AI trade.

We get UK employment data on Tuesday, and CPI on Wednesday, with the Eurozone reporting inflation data the same day with both expected to drop slightly.

Elsewhere we get PMI data from various countries, FOMC minutes, Canadian and Japanese CPI and sentiment surveys from the IFO and University of Michigan.

Should you have FX requirements or any questions, please contact us at:

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11/05/2026

4 May – 11 May Weekly Market View
by Clive Ponsonby , Head of FX, QORE Finance

Geopolitics and equities

De-escalation was the theme last week around Iran as various skirmishes were downplayed with the US pushing for some resolution with a "one-page memorandum of understanding" to end the war circulating for agreement.

Over the weekend Trump rejected the Iranian counter-proposal, but equities still set several new highs and oil went down - any retracements early today still indicate a much more positive market than a week ago, particularly with equities shrugging off high oil prices as the US consumer looks extremely resilient (for now).

There is also an expectation that the Trump-Xi summit late this week may yield some peaceful resolution with China having considerable influence over Iran.

UK local elections saw the ruling Labour party perform badly - but probably in line with expectations - any leadership challenge to Starmer will be seen as likely to lead to looser fiscal discipline and weaken both Gilt markets and Sterling, the next few days will be closely watched in case one of the big names steps forward to challenge for the leadership - with Wes Streeting the most likely candidate.

FX Markets

The US labour market is still very strong: non-farm payroll data exceeding expectations, with the usual caveats about which sectors were creating jobs; but with inflation accelerating and employment still solid there seems little room to cut rates in the US, but no one is ruling that out in June.

We saw rate hikes in Australia and Norway last week, the latter was unexpected but more countries are breaking ranks from just waiting for the Iran situation to end. A weak Canadian Jobs report in stark contrast to the US, saw Usd/Cad move higher last week as the Loonie underperformed most other major currencies last week.

All eyes are also on the Yuan as it continued to strengthen beyond 6.80 ahead of the Trump-Xi summit. GBP is in focus on the political front, with Gilt markets a barometer of sentiment, a strong GDP print later this week may save the PM's bacon.

Commodities and Crypto

Oil was lower over the course of the week as the de-escalation trade gained momentum and risk assets performed pretty well overall, we are still high in absolute terms but the consensus is very much when the Strait of Hormuz opens, not if.

The comments from Modi over the weekend trying to reduce demand could be a canary in the coalmine for where things are going, but for now it seems to be just India talking this way. Gold and Silver traded pretty well last week as positioning seems more neutral, helped by positive risk sentiment.

Crypto continues its bullish price action and the slow pace helps it feel more sustainable, ETH is struggling to gain ground and losing pace with the rest of the crypto complex.

Week ahead

The Trump-Xi meeting on Thursday-Friday will be the big event of the week as it also has an impact on the Iran situation which I think will therefore be sidelined for the first half of the week as a result.

Scott Bessent is meeting Japanese leadership which will be closely watched by Yen traders, and US CPI on Tuesday is the biggest data release with 3.8% expected vs 3.3% last month and will bring into sharp focus questions for the new Fed chair Kevin Warsh especially in light of last week’s strong jobs report.

We also get UK GDP on Thursday, with stronger growth than the EU expected, but this will be less important than the future of PM Starmer for Sterling.

Should you have FX requirements or any questions, please contact us at:

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04/05/2026

27 April – 4 May Weekly Market View
by Clive Ponsonby , Head of FX, QORE Finance

Geopolitics and equities

We are now in week 10 of the 4-6week excursion/war with the Strait of Hormuz still essentially closed to ships not allowed through by Iran, whilst various noise about negotiations keeps happening, focus of news bulletins has very much shifted away from the region - maybe Trump was distracted by the King’s visit; suffice to say it was not the main driver for stock markets, or even FX, this week.

We continue to make all-time highs in most big indices with earnings data relatively strong and the latest AI models all continuing to amaze.

The big earnings week saw GOOG and AAPL the big winners with META the big loser as large capex spending is seen as a negative right now.

Momentum is still strong for equities and risk assets in general, but after a strong April bounce we could be in for consolidation and a more sideways May.

Trump seems to be dismissing Iran’s latest proposal but a middle ground seems hard to find so the stalemate is likely to continue in the short term but announcements of a breakthrough are always possible.

FX

With the USD trading strong after the FOMC Usd/Jpy traded above 160 again on Thursday morning, but after a final verbal warning the BoJ intervened taking spot down to around 155.50 (approx 3%) and again the following day and even early on Monday to show the market it wasn’t a one-off.

Although the long term effect of intervention is usually negligible, in the short term (1-2weeks) it has a reasonable track record, half the time just stopping further depreciation, half the time causing meaningful appreciation: risk reward is skewed and the market was short yen so a period of position adjustment is likely.

Central bank meetings were largely uneventful, if slightly hawkish: Powell confirmed he will stay on ‘for a while’ and some of the dissent was hawkish in nature so US yields went up a little (but the oil price is a much bigger factor); the ECB was maybe the least hawkish (even with high HICP inflation data this week) and the market pricing of the future path of Euro rates also the steepest relative to what was realistic, the BoE also had some hawkish dissent.

All of which led to a weaker Euro and stronger Sterling with the USD somewhere in between, next week the RBA is likely to hike (about 75% priced in) which would be the third hike of the year. Last week US GDP disappointed slightly and inflation was still sticky, focus will be on US jobs data this week coming.

Commodities and Crypto

Oil was well supported in the first half of the week as stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz continued, but we saw some vague positive signs later in the week which pushed oil lower to close the week near the lows - the news that UAE was leaving OPEC was mildly dovish for prices but seemed to have limited impact.

Gold continued to trade on a the weak side but data showing central banks accumulating at the fastest rate in a year saw things stabilise, I feel we have shaken out weak retail longs so positioning is much cleaner and medium term flows are likely to support the price from here.

Crypto seemed to be failing to follow through after recent breaks higher, with BTC holding above the 75k previous highs we are still in a bullish zone on the technicals, and now we have gone above 80k at the weekend we may start to push higher; ETH looks less strong and still trades worse on the margin.

Next week

Aside from the RBA on Tuesday we get US employment data on Friday which will be more interesting for a change (as well as JOLTS and ADP earlier in the week): other job data from ISM/ADP has been relatively strong, and if non-farm payrolls follows then the Fed’s dual mandate really points to rate hikes in 2026 regardless of Miran and Warsh voting - currently only priced around 50:50 in the next 12 months, this could shift as far as one hike priced in by end of 2026 on strong data; we have to caveat that this data series is noisy and seen as slightly unreliable but can’t be ignored if it is strong along with all the other jobs data for a few months, since Core PCE is still at 3.2% and the 2% target hasn’t been hit for over 5years.

Should you have FX requirements or any questions, please contact us at:

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27/04/2026

20 – 27 April Weekly Market View
by Clive Ponsonby , Head of FX, QORE Finance

Equities and Geopolitics

The ceasefire was extended unilaterally by the US last week in an effort to get Iran's leadership to become more unified and negotiate, but the constant on/off nature of the 'Vance heading to Pakistan for talks' narrative is not great - it was pushed from Tuesday to the weekend and then cancelled altogether so we are still in this stalemate of a nominal ceasefire but with neither scheduled peace talks nor oil tankers moving through the strait of Hormuz.

On the positive side most non-energy markets seem to have shrugged off all the negatives and stocks continue to make all-time highs most days, boosted by corporate earnings (last week Intel) supporting sentiment that this week will bring another Mag7 bonanza with MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, META and AAPL all reporting.

We are however in week 9 of this 4-6 week "excursion" and currently the market is expecting it to be over at some point, but the longer we have no oil flowing through the strait, the more likelihood there is of something breaking down or one side getting fed up and escalating the situation.

FX Markets

The Kevin Warsh senate hearing was calming for markets as he walked the tight line on independence whilst also calling for a change to a "new framework" and rejecting forward guidance; the real shift though was when the DOJ dropped their criminal probe against Powell and the Fed which allowed Sen.

Tillis to pave the way for his approval which means Warsh will almost certainly be chair for the June meeting as originally scheduled.

Weak European PMIs saw the Euro falter this week, along with continued high oil prices pressuring manufacturing; in contrast the UK data was slightly more rosy causing GBP to outperform, a lower unemployment rate at 4.9% (albeit helped by a lower participation rate) and moderate PMIs with CPI rising to 3.3% all boosting Sterling this week.

The Yen is still hovering near 160 and all eyes will be on Ueda this week after the BoJ meeting on Tuesday, there is a chance of some unexpected hawkishness which would lead to some Yen outperformance.

Commodities and Crypto

Oil continues to grind higher slowly from the mid-April lows as nothing is moving through the strait, the constant kicking of the can down the road between the US and Iran is leading to expectations that the stalemate will remain in place for months.

Gold and Silver traded weakly last week as they seemed to decouple from equity markets and overall Dollar directionality, the price action is pretty bearish short term.

Crypto traded really strongly last week, now we are out of the previous ranges we tested higher, and the positive momentum is building which is pretty constructive for medium term sentiment, but it was notable that BTC was outperforming ETH, the latter struggling to hold above 2400.

Week ahead

A big week for central banks with interest rate decisions in Japan, Canada, US, UK, EU this week in that order, although with no changes expected the focus will be more on the comments than the decisions.

Earnings from four of the MAG7 on Wednesday will be a highlight after the Intel beat and IBM miss last week, but it’s safe to say expectations are fairly high with equity markets at all-time highs.

Aussie inflation on Wednesday will be another key data point this week as the only major central bank likely to hike in the next month; we also get key EU inflation and GDP data and US Core PCE.

The situation in the middle east will continue to dominate overall direction though with a new proposal from Iran supposedly sent the US today.

Should you have FX requirements or any questions, please contact us at:

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20/04/2026

13 – 20 April Weekly Market View
by Clive Ponsonby , Head of FX, Qore Finance

Equities and Geopolitics

The ceasefire confirmation, which seemed to turn on Israel agreeing to stop attacking Lebanon sent risk assets flying with new all-time highs set for stock markets as the oil price plunged.

The S&P500 has gone up 12 out of the last 13 days and over 12% since the close on 30th March, including every day last week (+4.5%).

Trump has announced the end of the war several times already, and for now the market is looking through the still mostly blocked Strait of Hormuz to a point in the future where there is peace.

Strong US earnings helped make people realise that there is more to the market than just the oil price, and as yet consumer spending doesn't seem to have been hit too much with expensive petrol and higher borrowing rates.

I think as much as anything, bears throwing in the towel lead to the impulsive moves higher in everything. The weekend saw the promised peace / open strait not live up to the claims made on Friday (again) but markets are trading on what Trump says is happening rather than the reality on the ground/sea, so you need to act accordingly.

You can still think that the oil price will remain elevated for months which means more money being allocated to energy use instead of everything else, which is bearish for most other assets - but we won't see signs of this for weeks or months so the market can ignore this for a long time and it is essentially not something that can be traded in other markets; jet fuel shortages stopping flights may be the first real world signs of enforced demand destruction which might spook stock markets.

The end of the ceasefire is due in the middle of this week and it’s not clear if the Iranians that Trump and Pakistan are talking to are the same ones as are stopping tankers crossing the strait, after a lot of tankers turned around on Friday and some were fired on during the weekend we are still watching a waterway for macro direction this week.

FX Markets

US PPI was a little lower than the market expected at just 0.5% and this was March data so contains some oil price spike which was a positive for inflation fears, but almost all data is sufficiently backward looking that it really has limited impact on future policy.

Chinese GDP beat expectations and on a manufacturing level the country is doing well, but retail sales is still weak. In Europe headline CPI was still on the high side at 2.6% but the ECB pushed talk of hikes out to the future; stronger UK GDP was also a boost even though pessimism remains around the UK from a political and energy perspective.

The dollar weakened last week, mostly on expectations around peace in the middle east, with the CAD and AUD the main beneficiaries as the Euro, GBP and JPY seemed to languish a little. In Singapore the MAS tightened monetary policy.

Next week the senate hearing to confirm Warsh as new Fed chair is possibly the biggest event to watch, of course it may not happen at all, but we are likely to get headlines and reaction either way.

Commodities and Crypto

Oil went much lower on the ceasefire progress then retraced about half the move when nothing was really going through the strait. This is a pattern we have seen several times now, so oil seems to care more about headlines than actual flow of the black stuff, but a steepening of the futures curve maybe says more about real world pricing.

Silver rallied over last week on risk assets, but gold was pretty flat.

Crypto saw a big spike as we finally broke through the upper end of recent ranges at 75k in BTC and 2350 in ETH, but the disappointment of the weekend took the wind out of the sails for any follow through momentum.

I have noted higher lows and higher highs in most crypto assets though which seems mildly bullish, but volumes are still very low as retail seems to have moved on to AI/Quantum stocks, Silver and Oil.

Week ahead

The situation in the middle east will continue to dominate with the ceasefire due to end on Wednesday.

We get Canadian and NZ CPI on Monday, US retail sales on Tuesday, along with a slew of UK data: Employment on Tuesday, CPI on Wednesday and Retail sales on Friday.

Elsewhere in Europe we get German Zew and IFO and European PMIs, along with an interest rate decision in Turkey.

Earnings wise the highlights will be TSLA, IBM and INTC, and of course we may or may not get the senate confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh.

Should you have FX requirements or any questions, please contact us at:

◽ [email protected]
◽ [email protected]

Or via the contact form on our website www.qore.finance

13/04/2026

6 – 13 April Weekly Market View
by Clive Ponsonby , Head of FX, QORE Finance

Equities and Geopolitics

Tuesday's deadline came with an announcement of a ceasefire, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and talks at the weekend; equities immediately popped 3.5% higher (notably above the pre-war closing level) and oil dropped 20% and other risk assets performed well, with the dollar dropping also.

But even though markets spent the rest of the week with buoyant price action, few tankers were actually passing through the strait, Israel was still bombing Lebanon breaking the ceasefire and Iran started retaliating, it was more of a stalemate ahead of weekend talks rather than actual progress, but markets saw through the short term and seemed to be pricing in light at the end of the tunnel.

The weekend talks failed to find any agreement, it sounded like the US was looking for a surrender and Iran thinks its interests are better served by fighting on, Trump then announced a US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil jumped back above $100 a barrel and equities dropped a little, but again it is noteworthy that US stocks are still within 1% of the February pre-war closing level as I write this, even with oil for Jun delivery some 40% higher and September 25% higher, which is either a) way too optimistic or b) a reflection that US (tech dominated) indices and consumers are not affected by high energy prices - delete as appropriate.

Either way it is hard to be bearish given the price action and the chart looks much like the liberation day v-shaped dip which (despite tariffs remaining high) pushed on to new highs afterwards; but with private credit wobbles, high inflation and zero job growth it is equally hard to be bullish.

FX Markets

Inflation data was high, with headline CPI rising 0.9% in just a month, but this was in line with expectations and so the impact was limited, particularly with oil lower over the course of last week people were less worried about future inflation.

The dollar weakened as safe haven flows retreated but Fed cuts continue to get priced further and further away with the FOMC minutes slightly hawkish if anything.

Elsewhere the Yen remained weak as the Dollar retreat didn't seem to happen against Japan's struggling currency and in spite of BoJ hikes now being forecast there seems little support for it and the market is less worried about intervention with no sign even on spikes above 160.

Elsewhere we saw the Hungarian Forint surge 2% higher today after Orban's defeat in the election, and it is some 5% stronger over the last two weeks as the outcome became clearer.

Commodities and Crypto

A whipsaw week with oil collapsing after the ceasefire announcement and front month oil futures regained about half of that move after the weekend talks failed, but interestingly are still lower than this time last week even with a blocked strait.

There is of course a big disconnect with actual prices of oil for immediate delivery and the longer dated contracts (eg September) have retraced last week’s move entirely so the backwardation in the curve has reduced as the market prices in a longer conflict.

Gold and Silver are trading fairly strongly having shaken out weak retail long positions and the weekend events don't seem to have caused much drop.

Crypto also traded well last week on the positive sentiment and although we gave back some gains over the weekend, we are still trading strong - possibly reflecting the bullish sentiment in stocks.

I have observed that ETH tends to move much faster than BTC on positive news but then BTC catches up, probably a function of liquidity rather than direction.

Week ahead

The ongoing blockade and any escalation of attacks this week will be closely watched this week, as well as the US equity market open - will the bullish price action hold after failed peace talks?

Data wise we get US PPI on Tuesday with an expected 1.2% monthly gain, also the Fed's Beige Book outlook on the economy.

Elsewhere we have Chinese trade balance, GDP and retail sales, along with UK GDP, and the final release of Eurozone CPI to look out for.

Should you have FX requirements or any questions, please contact us at:

◽ [email protected]
◽ [email protected]

Or via the contact form on our website www.qore.finance

07/04/2026

30 March – 6 April Weekly Market View
by Clive Ponsonby , Head of FX, Qore Finance

Equities and Geopolitics

It’s still all about the war… and the latest deadline expires at 20:00 EST on Tuesday so that is certain to mark an inflection point one way or another - but this was the 48hr then 5 day, then 10 day deadline which was extended by another day over the weekend, maybe this time he really means it?

Last week was a more positive week for markets with US stocks reporting their first weekly gain in 6 weeks, oil staying high but largely moving sideways and yields easing off. The public comments coming from Iran seem to point to little common ground and more threats of escalation with damage being inflicted on infrastructure on both sides.

Rumours swirl of a potential 45 day ceasefire, and talks going on in the background, but whether terms can be found that both sides agree to is the difficultly.

On the positive side for market outcomes some ships have negotiated a way through and a toll for passing through the strait or Hormuz may end up being an acceptable outcome in the short term and markets would rally if that came to pass.

FX Markets

US employment data was good in March after being bad in February (which was revised even weaker) as the flip-flop payrolls seems to have alternated good-bad for almost a year, but ultimately the average/trend is basically flat, so neither good nor bad if you zoom out.

The Fed is basically on hold for now as they wait to see how the Iran war affects both inflation and jobs, we are more likely to see moves (rate hikes) from the UK/Europe but again maybe not at their next meetings.

We have Poland and NZ central banks meeting this week with no changes expected, more focus on places like India as they impose capital controls (with an outside chance they are forced to hike rates too) to help stop the slide in their currencies.

The USD is still trading strong overall but off the highs as we await the next developments in Iran.

Commodities and crypto

Oil seems to just be drifting higher as the days tick on without a resolution, the fact that several tankers have crossed through the strait might have seen prices come off as markets start to anticipate a steady (if lower volume) flow of oil, but escalation in rhetoric with both sides standing firm has meant people are having to hedge the risk of things getting worse before they get better.

Precious metals rallied in the first half of the week before giving back some gains in the latter half, overall like other assets they seem to be in a holding pattern awaiting the next move.

We saw a couple of fast moves higher in BTC and ETH last week but these didn’t sustain for too long although the lows are getting higher which may point to some upward momentum starting to build.

Week ahead

The main data this week will be US CPI on Friday although is too backward looking to make a big difference, along with PMIs in Europe/UK/Australia and Canadian employment data.

The Tuesday deadline set by Trump for Iran will be the main focus but this could easily be extended again, but what message does that send?

Should you have FX requirements or any questions, please contact us at:

◽ [email protected]
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06/04/2026

On April 8, Robert Park, Co-Founder & CEO of Qore Finance, will participate in the online conference “Exploring the Latest Financial Solutions,” organized by Future Business Club together with Ukraine Economic Outlook.

The conference will bring together leading financial experts to discuss how companies can secure funding in an increasingly complex and rapidly evolving financial landscape. The session will be hosted by Mikhail Kukhar, Head of the Independent Macroeconomic Analysis Group at Ukraine Economic Outlook and lecturer in macroeconomics at MIM-Kyiv Business School.

Participation is free with registration: https://www.ukraine-economic-outlook.com/where-to-get-money-in-2026

Join the discussion to explore practical funding options and the latest financial solutions available to businesses in 2026.

30/03/2026

23 – 29 March Weekly Market View
by Clive Ponsonby, Head of FX, QORE Finance

Equities and Geopolitics

Last week felt like a carbon copy of the previous week, Trump signalling de-escalation early in the week (5 days of not attacking infrastructure, later extended to 10 days until 06Apr) after a nasty weekly equity close and oil prices surging early on Monday; markets then had a calm first half of week before selling off hard into the weekend. It is becoming increasingly clear that the Iranians are not really talking that seriously with the US, but also that the claims made by Trump are simply not true: despite promising not to attack energy infrastructure they have done just that several times over the past week including nuclear power plants and electricity grid infrastructure, equally Iran is not opening up the Strait of Hormuz.

The half-life of Trump's efforts to calm markets is becoming much shorter as we saw last Thursday when oil prices dropped on a Tweet only to bounce back 80% within 15 minutes.

I'd make a few key observations at this stage: firstly the aims of the war now seem to have reduced to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which was open before the war and the closure is a direct consequence of the 'excursion'; secondly financial markets effectively only care about the flow of oil and other goods (e.g. Fertiliser, Helium) and a protracted land based war with an open strait would see markets correct quickly, but Iran restricting tankers for another month would see shortages and further price increases start to destroy economic demand which will make the consequences of this war more painful for all; thirdly there has been some flow of oil for friendly countries (e.g. Pakistan, China, Thailand) and these are helping reduce the deficit or slow down the impact which is a definite positive development over the last week, but that the attacks on energy infrastructure also will lead to reduced output from this region for years which is a clear negative; finally even if the US walked away at this point it doesn't seem like Iran will simply allow all tankers through again so the off-ramps are limited and the demands of the US and Iran seem so far away at the moment that a 'deal' seems unlikely and most of the talk is stalling from the US side as they prepare to get boots on the ground.

We are now in correction territory for some of the US indices (>10% from all-time-highs) but the tariff announcements a year ago saw a >20% drawdown, and given the bearish technicals and that I can't see a clear resolution to the conflict this week I can't be bullish equities even at these levels.

We start to get data impacted from March this week which will have some war effects built in. Geopolitical focus will be on the Bab El-Mandeb Strait and whether the Houthi's (or Iran) start to shut that waterway down which would be another big escalation.

FX Markets

The Dollar is still trading strongly on safe haven flows, also because of the major economies the US is less impacted by high energy prices than anywhere in Europe or Asia.

We breached 160 in Usd/Jpy on Friday which triggered some verbal intervention over the weekend and on Monday, we are also seeing other currencies impacted and forcing central banks to calm certain Emerging Markets such as India, Korea, Philippines and in Turkey where they sold a chunk of gold from their reserves last week to prop up the currency and there was an unexpected cut by the Mexican central bank last week.

Global yields made fresh highs last week which is pushing more pressure on the fiscal headroom in major economies, making it harder to soften the economic impact on consumers.

Commodities and Crypto

Oil prices remain high and Natural Gas is now a big focus for more countries especially in Europe and Asia as people look to alternatives to keep power grids running and coal is an early beneficiary as many places have power stations they can use or switch back on.

Gold had a nasty start to last week, we now know central banks were offloading reserves and after that became clear the price action was much better as it seems to have found buyers happy to believe in the safe haven again, high real rates are still a drag on owning metals but given the fiscal situation the market doesn't want to go too long govt bonds at this stage.

Crypto had a worse week but we still remain in recent ranges (62k-75k for BTC), albeit to the lower end of them.

Week ahead

We have the US employment data on Good Friday when many markets will be shut, and to some extent this is less important than the outlook ahead, or data that will change the central bank reaction function such as higher than expected CPI prints. On that front we get Eurozone flash CPI on Tuesday and US PMI on Wednesday; there is also RBA minutes published on Tuesday which will make interesting reading.

Should you have FX requirements, please contact us at:

◽ [email protected] ◽ [email protected]

Or via the contact form on our website www.qore.finance

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