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24/08/2026

17 August – 24 August Weekly Market View

by Clive Ponsonby , Head of FX, QORE Finance

Equities and Geopolitics

The situation in Iran remains fragile if little changed from a week ago with Scott Bessent due to announce the full scope of "economic D-Day" sanctions later on Monday - but this is a slow way to fight the war and the market is still bracing for high oil prices for much of the rest of this year.

This situation means higher inflation is expected to persist which lifted yields, a key issue for the US administration and they announced increased buy backs in the long end of the bond curve to target this.

Unfortunately this backfired with yields fully retracing the drop within a day and the fiscal credibility of the Fed and Treasury is now the big story with the US debt pile surpassing $40 trillion, as the debasement trade comes back with a vengeance. This led to a big drop in the dollar and gains in assets such as gold and crypto and that theme is still playing out at the start of this week.

There was some amusement that Trump seemed to think he could fight the bond market with the army. The Fed's Warsh speaks at Jackson hole on Friday and may try to change the narrative to help shore up confidence in the US Dollar.

Stocks traded weakly last week but having made all-time highs in the S&P 500 the previous week they are still at pretty lofty levels, NVDA results later this week will be key for sentiment on AI stocks.

FX Markets

The weak Dollar is the main story as attempts to ease yields failed and just highlighted the lack of a plan by politicians to tackle the budget deficit: higher debt means higher yields which means bigger interest costs, leading to more debt in a spiralling doom loop.

The FOMC minutes didn't reveal any unexpected hawkishness and so a September hike remains a possibility but less than 50% which also weighed on the Dollar.

Elsewhere the failure to reach a trade deal with Canada has meant eye-popping tariffs of up to 50% announced at the weekend on certain goods which is being matched on the Canadian side, Usd/Cad is higher as a result; this came after higher than expected CPI in the country which had seen the currency rally beforehand.

UK inflation data was in line with expectations and employment data a little weaker than consensus.

Commodities and Crypto

A strong week for hard assets as the US debasement trade which was a big theme of 2025 reared its head again last week, with Gold and Silver continuing their recent rally and August is shaping up to be one of the best months ever for Gold.

Crypto also surged higher as people looked for stores of value, BTC and ETH gaining 25% and 35% respectively within the week at the highs. This has erased the big drop seen in May and June but we are still a long way below this time last year, but it has boosted confidence in the asset class significantly.

Oil was sidetracked compared to precious metals and crypto as prices continue to drift higher whilst remaining below the levels a month ago and in the early months of the war with Iran.

Week ahead

The highlight this week will be Kevin Warsh speaking at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday where he is likely to try to regain his inflation fighting credentials - he talked hawkish at the start but the actions have been dovish so the market is putting more weight on actions rather than words, I'm not sure whether more talk will move the needle much but it will still be closely watched.

We also get the latest PCE reading which is the Fed's preferred inflation metric, but with benign CPI and PPI data out already it is unlikely to surprise too much.

NVDA earnings on Wednesday will be the key driver for tech stocks for the week ahead.

Should you have FX requirements or any questions, please contact us at:

[email protected]/[email protected]

Or via the contact form on our website www.qore.finance

17/08/2026

10 August – 17 August Weekly Market View

by Clive Ponsonby , Head of FX, QORE Finance

Equities and Geopolitics

The conflict in the Middle East has shifted to economic pressure with blockades and sanctions aiming to cut oil revenues from bolstering the Iranian regime. The MOU between the US and Iran expires today with little sign of renewal.

The overall stalemate with oil prices elevated but steady is leading to equities just grinding higher and making new highs in quiet summer markets bolstered by benign inflation data on top of soft (but not bad) job data which has quietened the hawks on the FOMC for the time being.

Expectations for Fed hikes have shifted in a few weeks from an odds-on hike in September and two by the end of 2026, to unlikely next month and only one by the end of the year and even that may evaporate with the Jackson Hole symposium later this month.

FX Markets

In the US CPI was in line with expectations, but a softer PPI and weak Retail sales (-0.6% vs +0.1% expected) and weak Michigan Sentiment left the Dollar was languishing this week as near-term hikes became less likely.

Central banks from Australia and Norway kept rates unchanged whilst both highlighted inflation pressures.

The market is testing the resolve of Japanese and US authorities after their joint effort to boost the Yen with intervention, as the currency slips towards the crucial 160 level with eyes moving towards a rate hike in September or October as the next leg to prop up the beleagured currency, having gone back above the 200 day moving average in both Usd/Jpy and Eur/Jpy last week.

Commodities and Crypto

The Oil price traded sideways last week as tensions remained but didn’t escalate and the shift towards economic pressure means less chances of a flare up, but a longer time before likely resolution to the conflict.

Gold continued to shine and remained near the $4,400 level bolstered by the weaker Dollar, with a breach of the $4,500 level key to any further gains with Silver largely following suit.

Crypto was fairly muted last week with ETF outflows which showed the recent inflows were a blip caused by people shifting to ‘safer’ ETFs from offline wallet storage after the Coldcard hack.

Week ahead

Canadian CPI on Monday is expected to show a rise closer to 3%, also the August 19th tariff deadline is approaching; an interim deal is expected, but it will be bad for the Cad if one is not reached.

We then get UK inflation data – expected to show a headline increase but a core decrease, backing up the purely energy led move whilst underlying price pressures are still subdued, we also get UK job data with the unemployment rate hovering near 5yr highs.

Later in the week we get to see the FOMC minutes with people unpicking the hawkish/dovish split within the committee and finally some European PMIs.

Should you have FX requirements or any questions, please contact us at:

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Or via the contact form on our website www.qore.finance

10/08/2026

3 August – 10 August Weekly Market View

by Clive Ponsonby , Head of FX, QORE Finance

Equities and Geopolitics
Iran and Oman agreed on a proposed shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz which improved the prospects of an eventual reopening of this oil corridor and after the initial move lower in oil prices last week the market traded mostly sideways. The lack of tankers moving through the strait as well as Houthi attacks on the Red Sea stopped anyone from thinking this is fully resolved, as always the market may be forward looking reacting on headlines, but also waits for reality to confirm the expectations.

At the weekend the news that the US was only “semi-negotiating” with Iran, along with fresh demands from Iran before they reopen the strait dampened hopes of a swift resolution to oil flow.

It was enough to boost sentiment and after strong earnings (and the Situational Awareness Hedge Fund induced AI sell-off over) Equity markets rallied strongly with the S&P500 making new all-time highs.

It is notable that the Nasdaq is still well below previous highs, and other tech barometers like the Kospi also struggling to return to the bull markets seen earlier this year.

FX Markets
US Employment data was seen as slightly weaker so yields went lower and stocks went higher, but ultimately it showed both lower job growth and lower unemployment in a combination of mildly shrinking demand as well as mildly shrinking supply which overall is a non-event for markets. We also get another report before the next Fed meeting and other data such as CPI, as soon as this Wednesday.

Currency markets were in quiet summer mode and Eur/Usd, along with most other major pairs, stuck inside a

03/08/2026

27 July – 03 August Weekly Market View

by Clive Ponsonby, Head of FX, QORE Finance

Equities and Geopolitics

Over the weekend Trump called off "massive" strikes on Iran and claimed fresh talks would begin on Monday in what seems like a re-run of the previous weekend's news, the result of which was oil dropping over 10% in the early part of the week only to go back up by Friday as the situation escalated again.

Iran is claiming there are no talks but oil is still down this morning, we will wait and see if the pattern repeats or this ceasefire can last beyond the initial announcement.

Equities had a pretty rough week after the optimism of Monday morning was erased as soon as US markets opened and AI stocks got hit hard as rotation out of the sector continued, we then saw the Kospi index fall over 20% from the close on Friday 24th to Wednesday 29th (and down 44% from the June highs) almost blowing up a prominent hedge fund in the process before things bounced back sharply on Friday.

We had a set of mixed results from big tech, as dispersion between similar stocks seems to be the theme of the year rather than everything moving together. MSFT and AMZN were the big winners of last week, META, AAPL were the losers, but for AAPL it was just after making all-time highs so the bar was high for it to go up further.

Overall earnings so far have been strong justifying the S&P remaining within 2% of the highs but concerns over AI and Semiconductor stocks have caused rotation out of certain sectors.

FX Markets

The Fed left rates unchanged and given a hike was a live possibility, 2yr yields were lower afterwards but the long end (10yr+) were much higher as confidence in the new Fed actually fighting inflation evaporated and Warsh's credibility took a big hit; the Dollar moved lower as a function of both short end yields and lack of confidence in the Fed in the biggest weekly drop since April.

The BoE was unchanged and although 3 voted for a hike, there is still a wait and see approach here and overall it was perceived as dovish and chances of a September hike have reduced; in stark contrast Euro yields edged higher after strong CPI which increased chances of a September hike in the Eurozone - Eur/Gbp was higher on the week and Eur/Usd even more so.

On Thursday and Friday (and again early Monday morning) we saw joint intervention to buy Yen from Japan and the US - coordinated action like this is very unusual and has led to a big market impact.

Previous rounds of intervention in the yen, which have been only by the Japanese, have had little lasting effect so the question is will this time be different?

The selling of US treasuries by the biggest foreign holder will exacerbate the troubles in the long end of the US yield curve. We have also seen currency intervention in Korea and India.

Commodities and Crypto

Oil continues to whipsaw on headlines but there is still a lack of tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz and this is the key indicator. Gold and Silver continue to trade fairly weakly as yields stay firm and the lack of any safe haven bounce on tech stocks falling was notable, in fact arguably the relationship has flipped with margin calls in stocks being funded by selling precious metals so they go down in a market panic rather than up.

The Crypto world was rocked last week by the Coldcard Wallet Hack which drained wallets not even connected to the internet with over $88mio lost.

MSTR also sold more BTC last week, this reversed the recent upward trend in prices that had marked the first few weeks of July.

Week ahead

US employment data is the big event of the week on Friday with PMI and ISM data also out earlier in the week. For currencies the focus will be on any more Japanese intervention and how the market takes that. Iran headlines will also be closely watched.

There are some mid-tier earnings releases with the highlights being AMD, PLTR, UBER, DIS and SPCX - the latter will lead to a further tranche of shares that can be sold which may add selling pressure to the post IPO market yet again.

Should you have FX requirements or any questions, please contact us at:

[email protected] / [email protected]

Or via the contact form on our website www.qore.finance

27/07/2026

20 July – 27 July Weekly Market View
by Clive Ponsonby , Head of FX, QORE Finance

Equities and Geopolitics

The situation in the middle east continued to escalate last week as Trump continued to make significant threats against Iran but then de-escalated at the weekend saying proposed strikes were being “paused”.

Oil went up in price breaking $100 last week as the Houthis reportedly attacked two Saudi tankers in the Bab el-Mandeb strait which is the second most important export channel after the Hormuz Strait, whether this turn of events (and related market impact) forced Trump into another TACO is an open question.

Markets have taken a big reverse on the weekend news with oil down 5-10% and equities recovering also.

The other big story last week was more Tariffs, but we have seen this movie before and a reversal of anything truly damaging is likely and the inflationary effects were minimal last time around so the impact was localised to Mexico and Canada which stand to lose the most.

Equities had a rotten week as the AI trade has lost the wind in its sails and in spite of decent results from Alphabet stocks continued to sell off.

John Healey is the new UK Chancellor which was a complete surprise and saw Sterling weaken as he has a background of vocally calling for more defence spending which may mean higher deficits.

FX Markets

Yields spiked again last week printing fresh highs in the 10yr in many countries, this was mainly driven by oil, but the hawkish ECB hold also helped to push Eurozone yields up, but given a September hike is fully priced in, the reaction was muted particularly for FX.

Whilst we remain below the 2024 highs of 5% in the US 10yr though we are still in familiar ranges so there is no reason to panic. In the UK the choice of new Chancellor saw Gilt yields weaken, as well as several unfunded promises from new PM Burnham, but there were positives as well from the politics here and notably we didn’t make as new yield high partly because UK CPI was softer than expected, given this was from a time when oil was 30% lower forward looking markets didn’t react much.

Commodities and Crypto

Oil is the big mover as it followed events in the middle east with Brent pushing above the key $100 level, but we are back in the $80s early this week.

Expect more volatility as the situation evolves with the Bab el-Mandeb strait in focus. Gold and Silver saw a bit of a bounce last week in spite of high yields – maybe the safe haven status was working or maybe all the longs had already capitulated.

ETH continues to trade well in the crypto space as it pushed close to $2k, with BTC consolidating rather than going up in a meaningful way.

Week ahead

The Fed meeting on Wednesday this week will be interesting, will Warsh back up his hawkish stance from the first meeting by being proactive and hiking because of the oil price spike, or will he appease Trump by staying on hold? A hold is seen as more likely but the market still assigns around 30-40% probability of a hike at this point, the Bank of England follows on Thursday where no change is expected after weaker CPI and a wait and see stance on politics is also sensible.

Friday morning sees the BoJ which could be a wildcard if they hike unexpectedly to boost the yen – they have done this before so is something to watch.

On Wednesday and Thursday we get results from MSFT, META, AAPL and AMZN.

Should you have FX requirements or any questions, please contact us at:

[email protected] / [email protected]

Or via the contact form on our website www.qore.finance

20/07/2026

13 July – 20 July Weekly Market View
by Clive Ponsonby , Head of FX, QORE Finance

Equities and Geopolitics

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz has escalated even further over the last week and oil has ratcheted up over 10% for its biggest weekly gain since April. Fighting is ongoing with several US strikes at the weekend and Iran retaliating against US assets in the region and ships trying to transit the strait.

US Equities came off a little last week as AI and related stocks got repriced, it is quite stark that the S&P500 is only 2% below the all-time highs but the Nasdaq is over 7% off - elsewhere the semiconductor concentrated Kospi index is down over 30% from the June highs (but still up over 50% in 2026).

Bank Earnings were very strong overall last week with most reporting record profits, we get key tech earnings this week with GOOG on Wednesday along with INTC and TSLA also out, the following week sees MSFT, META and AAPL report.

SpaceX shares returned to well below the IPO price as retail heavy stocks got hit hardest, sectors like AI, semiconductors and memory, quantum computing, rare earths and even Silver all underperformed as supply is outpacing demand and the price action does not look positive failing to rally even on a weaker CPI print which would normally have boosted stocks.

FX Markets

FX had a relatively quiet week, interest rates are pricing a new higher for longer equilibrium with the latest Iran situation, and the low volatility reflects a lack of conviction rather than stability.

Commodity currencies and high yielders outperformed overall. A story broke that Shabana Mahmood was going to be chancellor in new UK PM Andy Burnham's cabinet pushing sterling higher - we expect an official announcements of all major positions later on Monday.

The Fed's Waller was hawkish on Tuesday only to see softer US CPI on Wednesday at 3.5% (vs 3.8% expected) which saw yields go up and then down again but with oil trading much firmer the future path looks higher so this is a pause rather than a win.

This does mean that the Fed meeting on 29th July, is likely to be unchanged (from 40% chance of a hike priced in last week) so they can wait and see until the Autumn.

The Bank of Canada was unchanged as widely expected but sounded upbeat on growth as other data was broadly positive helping the Cad outperform we get CPI data later today; in contrast Chinese growth data was weaker than expected as the government seems to be propping up stock prices.

Commodities and Crypto

Oil is higher with little traffic making it through the Strait of Hormuz and the ceasefire well and truly over for now as even talks seem a long way off. It opened this week with another jump higher but we are still below the levels we were trading in April and May when fighting was ongoing, so maybe the market still prices some hope of resolution soon.

Silver made fresh lows last week as precious metals underperform with higher yields pressuring the sector and although positioning seemed cleaner the price action suggests people are still net long.

Gold is hovering around the $4k level but didn't have as bad a week as Silver. ETH is leading the recovery in the Crypto space with strong upward momentum in July and is outperforming BTC which is consolidating above $60k.

Week ahead

Focus is on the UK with both the cabinet announcements today, employment and inflation data also out later this week.

We then get the ECB decision on Thursday which is expected to be unchanged but their comments on the future rate path will be closely watched.

There are also PMIs out on Friday as well as ZEW survey earlier in the week.

Should you have FX requirements or any questions, please contact us at:

[email protected] / [email protected]

Or via the contact form on our website www.qore.finance

13/07/2026

06 July – 13 July Weekly Market View
by Clive Ponsonby , Head of FX, QORE Finance

Equities and Geopolitics

The ceasefire is off again, but this time more seriously with the Strait of Hormuz “closed” according to Iranian authorities after an active weekend of attacks from both sides. Oil is up and stock markets are down, but the pricing seems to indicate that the market thinks this will be resolved to a more peaceful situation soon (i.e. in July) rather than a permanent state of hostility.

There is of course a lot that can change as the situation is fluid but this has always been a fragile situation that ebbs and flows one way and the other and for the time being this is just another low ebb, which means the default strategy is buy the dip which has worked well so far.

Last week equity markets traded modestly upwards as they often tend to do at this time of year, and we get the first earnings on Tuesday which may set the tone.

Bond markets traded weakly with yields up after the oil price stopped falling.

Real yields reached their highest levels since the GFC, also buoyed by hawkish Fed minutes and the RBNZ hiking rates for the first time in 3 years.

FX Markets

FOMC minutes were hawkish on the margin with some members wanting to hike at the last meeting, we also had the RBNZ hike this week in what was seen as a 50:50 decision which saw the NZD the strongest currency of the week.

US yields are holding up but we did get some dovish noises at the CB conference last week.

CPI will be the real test but it feels like there will be more market impact if expectations shift dovish than if we get more hawkish data.

With tension in the Middle East the Dollar is still trading strongly today after coming off last week.

The Japanese government is trying to persuade pension funds to shift more investments to Yen to shore up the currency, but since most of these are controlled by the govt themselves, this should be a fairly easy conversation, but changing direction here will be like turning an oil tanker, but should support the Yen on the margin over coming months and I’m turning bullish here.

Sterling trades well as Burnham is so far unopposed and should be confirmed PM on the 20th July.

Commodities and Crypto

Oil is obviously higher after the events of the weekend but not as much as may have been feared if you looked only at the headlines, and the fact both sides are still talking can be seen as a minor win.

Gold and Silver traded fairly weakly as yields rose but are holding above recent lows for now, focus is mostly elsewhere.

In Crypto things traded better, consolidating and holding on to the previous week's gains even with MSTR selling for BTC, we remain above $60k which indicates that the weak longs have all been flushed out for the time being.

Week ahead

The highlight will be US CPI on Tuesday which will give us the biggest data point ahead of the next Fed meeting on 29th July, Warsh will also be testifying in front of the House on the same day; unless we get a blowout reading in either direction the smart money is on the first hike not being until October so this is not going to be critical.

Earnings also kick off on Tuesday with the big banks reporting first, the key tech names report later this month.

We also get a Bank of Canada rate decision with no change expected, UK GDP and US retail sales.

Should you have FX requirements or any questions, please contact us at:

[email protected] / [email protected]

Or via the contact form on our website www.qore.finance

06/07/2026

29 June – 06 July Weekly Market View
by Clive Ponsonby , Head of FX, QORE Finance

Equities and Geopolitics

The Iran situation has been relatively calm in the last week with some progress made in talks and no further breaks of the ceasefire but talks are now on pause for the funeral ceremonies in Iran for former supreme leader Ali Khameni which started on 4th and conclude with his burial on the 9th.

Oil is at the lower end of recent ranges but has stopped going down for now as Hormuz still seems to not be fully open. Inflation readings last week surprised to the downside as falling prices seem to be feeding through faster than expected, along with a weaker US payroll report rate hike expectations across the board have been dialled down.

Equities are not that trading well, particularly the MAG7, recent gains have been chip and semiconductor/memory stocks as those spending money have been punished but those receiving it have done better.

We start to get key Q2 earnings data soon with the first reporting next week and many of the big Tech names releasing them between 22nd and 30th of July. Focus this week will be on the NATO summit and FOMC minutes from the meeting that kicked off the large Dollar rally mid-June.

FX Markets

A few weeks of Usd strength was pared back after a weak payroll report on Thursday showing only 57k jobs added, well below the 100k+ consensus, this was tempered by the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% but this was enough to push US yields lower and take the chance of a Fed hike in July almost off the table, but the market still expects a hike later this year.

We also saw Eurozone inflation come in below expected and having hiked in June, with plenty of hawkishness priced in for the ECB, these positions are also in retreat and the Euro weakened in the aftermath.

The Yen is still weak having hit fresh 40yr lows last week as the new Japanese PM is pushing back on further BoJ rate hikes but the markets is wary of intervention at these levels, but for now these will be seen as buying opportunities for Usd/Jpy.

Sterling is trading very positively and reached one year highs vs the Euro last week as it seems the leadership race to succeed Starmer as PM is a one-horse race and focus is on Burnham’s pick for the next Chancellor as well as how they intend to pay for increases in defence spending announced last week.

This week the emphasis will be on PMIs later today, Fed minutes on Wednesday the tone will be closely watched especially around timing of any potential hike, we also get the RBNZ meeting Wednesday with the market split between a hike and no change, the NZD will move on the outcome.

Commodities and Crypto

Oil is trading sideways as the calm in the middle east remains as Iran mourns the former supreme leader, having fully retraced the war induced move in prices, the extent to how much lower can they go from here is more about demand than supply.

Gold regained ground above $4k last week which mainly followed the moves in the Usd and interest rates as much as anything related to metals, silver also bounced from recent lows below $60 and feels like it has found some support for now.

Crypto also had a more positive week, particularly ETH which surged over 15% to hit $1800 again which reluctantly dragged BTC almost 10% but was left lagging behind: it does feel like recent weakness in both Crypto and Precious Metals lacks any further impetus as so much bad news is now priced in we can only see upside surprises.

Week ahead

A somewhat quiet week awaits in terms of hard data, but US PMIs are out later on Monday, FOMC minutes on Wednesday will be closely watched, and we get a relatively rare major interest rate meeting this week (the RBNZ on Wednesday) where the market is split on the outcome: between no change and a potential 25bp hike.

The week finishes off with more inflation data from the Eurozone and the Canadian jobs report.

Should you have FX requirements or any questions, please contact us at:

[email protected] / [email protected]

Or via the contact form on our website www.qore.finance

02/07/2026

QORE Finance has received a Payment Service Provider (PSP) license from the Bank of Canada. From now on, we can operate directly in the Canadian market and move payments between the UK and Canada through one infrastructure.

This license builds on our existing FCA registration in the UK. The same standards now apply in Canada too.

What this means for our clients:
- One provider for UK and Canada transfers
- Real-time visibility on both sides
- FX tools that now cover the Canadian dollar
- The same dedicated support you already know

This is part of a bigger pattern. UK first. Canada now. More markets ahead.