Rainforest Research Investment Managers

31/01/2026

16/08/2025

As our National Day week draws to a close, we share a song in continuing celebration of our precious Little Red Dot.

Majulah Singapura!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=II_5jBaYmGQ&list=RDII_5jBaYmGQ&start_radio=1

**********

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For Personal & Family Needs | Retirement | Legacy | Company Treasury

Contact us for a private, friendly, no obligation chat at:
E: [email protected]
WA: +65 9610 0356
Contact Form: https://www.rainforest-research.com.sg/contact

Website:
www.rainforest-research.com.sg

We are a fund management company regulated and licensed with the Monetary Authority of Singapore.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=II_5jBaYmGQ&list=RDII_5jBaYmGQ&start_radio=1

🎶“Come whatever on the road ahead, we did it before, and we’ll do it again.”🎶Dear Singaporeans, we’re happy to finally unveil ‘The Road Ahead’, the theme s...

30/10/2024

Asia markets had Black Monday 2.0 on 5 August. The Nikkei dropped by 12.4% in a single session, recalling the first Black Monday on 19 October 1987. No specific reason was cited, but likely a combination of profit taking, short covering, rumor milling, etc. caused the freefall, purportedly on the back of fears of a slowing US economy. However, the market subsequently recovered and ended August almost where it started. In fact, our Rainforest Fund and Private Accounts were all up. We are happy for our investors who are a remarkably steady bunch.

For those who did not remain steady, they would have suffered big losses. “If you’re going to do dumb things because your stock goes down, then you shouldn’t own stock at all.” – Warren Buffett (Dumb things, he clarified, are selling your stock just because the price goes down)

September turned out extremely well for our portfolios. Hong Kong and China markets were the stand-out performers, with each rising more than 20% in a very short time (1 week plus). Year-to-date, HK market became Asia’s best performing market, rising more than 35%. Investors who were not invested in, or exited, such markets in recent years scrambled to get back into these markets, while Rainforest’s investors having stayed invested on rational grounds - attractive valuations – benefited from the hike in valuation the instant the market turned. The investing adage “Time in the market is more important than timing the market” continues to hold true.

As we enter the final quarter of 2024, some use this time to review their finances as they prepare for the next year. We have been asked how to start or continue an investing journey. Some things to consider at the outset are:

Emergency fund versus excess cash
Quality and fundamentals of an investment
Income/savings, depending on lifestyle changes and milestones.

Investment advice and management
For Personal & Family Needs | Retirement | Legacy | Company Treasury

Contact us for a private, friendly, no obligation chat at:
[email protected]
https://www.rainforest-research.com.sg/contact

Website:
www.rainforest-research.com.sg

We are a fund management company licensed with the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

28/05/2024

We look at some events in April to reflect on: What we said then & Where we are now.

A. In the down month of January, we said, “Markets suddenly experienced a strong sell-down since the start of 2024, …indicating the probability of substantial short selling by hedge funds, etc. China and HK markets…severely affected.”

In April, the stock market in Hong Kong improved, rising about 20% from its lowest point in January. Foreign investors are reportedly rebuilding positions in view of “severe undervaluation”. Foreign hedge funds could also be closing outstanding short positions, in response to the Chinese government’s announcement in February on boosting financial markets through capital injection – the latter is bad news for short-sellers, as shorting relies on temporarily driving markets down for profit.

B. In April last year, we said re the Canton Fair, “the largest trade fair in China - has failed to attract buyers from USA and Europe in sufficiently large numbers. It may be due to the restrictive entry condition (PCR test) or be a sign of further economic decoupling between Western nations and China.”

This event, held every year since 1957, is widely seen as a barometer for China’s exports and a mirror of its progress up the industrial chain.

In April this year, record numbers of overseas visitors attended. It was reported, among other things, that there was: a strong return of foreign importers including US ones; increased buyers from Russia, Middle East, South America who were willing to settle more transactions in yuan; and AION said the fair offered foreign merchants a chance to view new Chinese EVs up close. (AION is Huawei’s foray into EVs, its cars powered by Huawei technology. It is entering the Singapore market, setting up shop along Leng Kee Rd.)

C. Last year, we shared about plans by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to transition Registered Fund Management Companies, who qualify, to become Licensed Fund Management Companies.

We are happy to share that Rainforest was among the early ones to be granted this ‘higher level’ capital markets services licence after applications opened in April this year.

Investment advice and management
For Personal & Family Needs | Retirement | Legacy | Company Treasury

Contact us for a private, friendly, no obligation chat at:
[email protected]
https://www.rainforest-research.com.sg/contact

Website:
www.rainforest-research.com.sg

We are a fund management company registered with the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

13/03/2024

Investment Commentary:
In February, China announced market stimulus measures, rekindling market confidence. China has shifted its attention to rejuvenating its capital market, where state resources - commonly called “National Team” (国家队) - have taken the lead to purchase securities. The Chinese market has since risen around 10% from its lowest point in early 2024, pulling up our Rainforest Fund's Chinese investments accordingly. Thus far the momentum has sustained.

HK lifted all demand side property cooling measures to improve its hobbled property market. Transaction volume shot up immediately. Though transaction price recovery is not yet apparent, it is still a positive development as transactions will clear inventory overhang and provide a floor for the sector to improve upwards.

Latest sales data shows a marked slowdown in electric vehicle sales worldwide since the start of 2024. We are entering an era where the fittest and lowest-cost producers in related industries survive. This will favour the likes of Tesla, BYD, CATL, etc.

China’s behemoth annual “Two-Sessions” conference (两会) recently concluded, where the government re-affirmed commitment towards high value-added, high technology investment, as a matter of further economic prosperity as well as national security. This confirms our investment thesis towards China’s domestic AI/tech leaders.

Click to read our views in The Business Times (Singapore) on AI in the asset management and wealth advisory industry:
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/banking-finance/ai-gaining-acceptance-asset-management-wealth-advisory

OR visit our News & Insights page at:
https://lnkd.in/gbm_68Ey

Investment advice and management
For Personal & Family Needs | Retirement | Legacy | Company Treasury

Contact us for a private, friendly, no obligation chat at:
[email protected]
https://www.rainforest-research.com.sg/contact

Website:
www.rainforest-research.com.sg

We are a fund management company registered with the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

15/01/2024

“Experience teaches that the time to buy stocks is when their price is unduly depressed by temporary adversity. In other words, they should be bought on a bargain basis or not at all.
If you are shopping for common stocks, choose them the way you would buy groceries, not the way you would buy perfume.”

- Benjamin Graham

Investment Commentary:

2023 saw challenging Asia market conditions, particularly in China and Hong Kong amidst geopolitical pressures. For 2023, China CSI300 index was down by 11%, while HK‘s Hang Seng index went down by 14%, making both the worst performing markets in the world. The Singapore market was flat for 2023.

Inflation figures generally improved towards end 2023, giving rise to hopes for lower interest rates in 2024. Lower interest rates are generally favorable for asset prices, including equities.

China continues its economic transformation amidst much internal and external pressure. Domestically, the spillover effect from its property sector fallout continues, hitting its multi-trillion trust/wealth management sector. Many trusts lent money to property companies who then defaulted, leading to losses for the trusts whose financial products had been bought by Chinese consumers. Falling property prices (property constitutes the majority of family wealth for many), investment losses from wealth management products, and subdued employment conditions, have led to lowering of consumer confidence and willingness to spend. Going forward, this will affect the bonanza hitherto enjoyed by other countries in the form of Chinese consumption in tourism, luxury goods, foreign properties, overseas education, etc.

The economic outlook for 2024 as a whole looks muted at this stage as the impact of rising interest rates in recent years is now coming through in the form of reduced corporate profitability. Consumers grapple with rising costs of living as the rich/poor divide continues to widen. On-going geopolitical tension between USA & China means further bifurcation of global economies to come. Notwithstanding, investment opportunities will continue to be available in selected sectors and we will be on the hunt in the new year.

Read our views in The Business Times (Singapore) on developments in the fund management industry:
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/streamlined-regulatory-framework-fund-managers-fits-industrys-growth-singapore

OR visit our News & Insights page at:
https://lnkd.in/gbm_68Ey

Investment advice and management
For Personal & Family Needs | Retirement | Legacy | Company Treasury

Contact us for a private, friendly, no obligation chat at:
[email protected]
https://www.rainforest-research.com.sg/contact

Website:
www.rainforest-research.com.sg

We are a fund management company registered with the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

23/10/2023

“I feel very stressed about inflation. Hope my investment into Rainforest’s stock portfolio will help to cushion me against the high cost of living.”
— Rainforest Investor (Salaried Employee)

“Richard and Deanna really listen carefully to our needs. They help us guard against our business ups and downs by managing investment of our company funds.”
— Rainforest Investor (Company)
Investment Commentary:

In September, market continued to be concerned over interest rate rises as inflation, while reducing, persists.

China’s troubled property sector continues to weigh heavily on sentiments. Another company, Sino-Ocean, announced it would suspend debt payment. China Evergrande called off a creditors’ meeting and its founder was arrested on suspicion of fraud. Thus, even though the Chinese government has relaxed many property-related policies, the volume of property transactions is low. The Chinese continue to have wealth, but lack confidence after 3 years of COVID lockdowns, on-going geopolitical tension (with USA & EU), and declining exports due to trade wars, etc.

The situation could be bottoming for China-HK stock markets, as the ‘localization’ drive in the past few years continues. For 40-50 years, foreign investors (particularly from the West) have wielded great influence due to their massive investments in these markets. However, most have been withdrawing from China due to geopolitical tension (including calls for decoupling) in the last few years. This continued selling pressure on stocks has caused much ownership to move into Asian hands at cheap prices. Many companies continue to operate profitably without regard to their share price and sell to Asian economies which are themselves large and viable. Local controlling shareholders (including families and governments) will continue on as long-term owners of these businesses, adding to the stability and commitment in management of the companies.

Lately, China-HK prices have dropped to historical lows, and trading volume has become very thin. We continue to take advantage of this period of down market prices to add to its positions selectively.

“Navigating the Future of US-China Relations” is a talk given earlier this year by Mr John Thornton, former President of Goldman Sachs and current Director of the Global Leadership Program at Tsinghua University, Beijing:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kgUX82Vh_8I

Investment advice and management
For Personal & Family Needs | Retirement | Legacy | Company Treasury

Contact us for a private, friendly, no obligation chat at:
[email protected]
https://www.rainforest-research.com.sg/contact



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kgUX82Vh_8I

On Friday, April 28, 2023, John Thornton, Director of the Global Leadership Program at Tsinghua University in Beijing and former President of Goldman Sachs, ...

26/05/2023

We have been asked about the collapses of Silicon Valley Bank in the US and Credit Suisse in Switzerland that happened earlier this year and whether the two events are related in some way, indicating possible weakness and future jeopardy in banking systems worldwide.

While the 2 banks collapsed in the same month, the reasons are not the same.

Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)’s collapse can be traced to the tech sector slowdown since early 2022 and the steady rise in US interest rates last year. Holding a significant amount of US Treasury bonds, SVB was facing mounting losses as bond prices dropped (bond prices have an inverse relationship with interest rates), leading to a weakened capital position. When some major VC-led depositor groups became worried and moved their monies out of SVB, a bank run ensued - this spelt the end of SVB.

Credit Suisse has in recent years been beset with controversial transactions (e.g. Archegos, Greensill), indicating weak risk management. This led to unceasing client withdrawals since 2022 till March 2023 when Swiss regulators concluded that Credit Suisse could no longer survive. Hence, the forced union between UBS and Credit Suisse over a tense weekend. Despite many unknowns, UBS shareholders may be interested to note that, prima facie, the deal seems to favor UBS. As a start, Credit Suisse has assets under management roughly half that of UBS. Yet, under the acquisition, UBS will issue only around 5% of its shares to buy the whole of Credit Suisse; the Swiss government will also provide some form of back-stop for future losses.

Other US regional banks that have gotten into trouble include Signature Bank which collapsed in March, First Republic Bank folding in April and currently, pressure has shifted to PacWest Bank. However, so far there isn’t rippling panic in the wider financial sector or among bank customers in the US.

How do the above matters affect banks in Singapore and Asia in general?
Unlikely to be significant as MAS is vigilant about capital adequacy among institutions operating in Singapore. Market reaction has also been muted in other Asian countries.

Our March report to Rainforest’s investors commented: “A silver lining in March’s [bank collapses] is that it may signal that current interest rates might be untenable for some US banks, risking a new financial crisis if not properly handled. The US Fed may now be cautious about raising interest rates much higher.”

In May, the US Fed indicated that stresses in the banking sector could mean that interest rates won’t have to be as high to control inflation. The debate is now centreing on whether the US economy will enter a mild or sharp recession. During Berkshire Hathaway’s recent AGM, Warren Buffett mentioned that numerous Berkshire companies will be do worse in 2023 compared to 2022.

Investment advice and management
For Personal & Family Needs | Retirement | Legacy | Company Treasury

Contact us for a private, friendly, no obligation chat at:
[email protected]
https://www.rainforest-research.com.sg/contact

Website:
https://www.rainforest-research.com.sg/

We are a fund management company registered with the Monetary Authority of Singapore

08/03/2023

We strongly outperformed the market in 2022 - as we did in 2021 - and are well in the positive for 2023.

We look back at a year riddled with war and inflation.

Rainforest’s Annual Letter to Investors June 2022 -

“The thing to do in times of market downturn is to stay invested. The reasons are at least threefold:

"i. Bad headlines and poor market sentiment usually throw up investment bargains. This is the time when contrarian investing really comes to the fore.”

Our research on companies never stops. This enables us to identify which companies to invest in and which to avoid. Our database of quality companies is reviewed against trends, risks, business & consumer developments. We are always monitoring the market against names on our ‘watchlist’, to buy if their price is right.

When the market is most depressed. is when we are most in ‘buy’ mode! Because price opportunities waited for patiently over months/years may finally arrive.

So last year we made purchases to further strengthen and enhance our investment portfolios.

“ii. Empirical evidence shows that 'doom & gloom' events have happened throughout the history of the stock market but each time the stock market recovers and goes up over time.”

DOWN - Market started weakening in early 2022 due to war, inflation, etc. October was a time of greatest pessimism. Fears such as ‘no end in sight’ or ‘how long will this down market continue’ or ‘what if it drops some more’, etc, were common. The market was volatile as many exited the market.

UP - October proved to be the bottom. Our NAV bounced back with a sharp double digit rise in November and has continued to rise in December and January.

“iii. No one can tell when the turn will happen until it has happened. So, any time spent out of (quality) stocks runs the risk of missing out on appreciation. The strongest recovery usually occurs during the initial bounce-back after the lowest point. i.e., when pessimism is at its greatest and morale at its lowest.”

Only in hindsight, can it be seen that the bottom of 2022 was October. After months of going down, to many anxious market participants, the dark tunnel must have seemed never-ending.

The bounce-back happened in November, its sharp rise in one month making up for at least a few months’ worth of previous downs.

Those who stayed invested, or invested more, in October, took considerable benefit.

Those who were spooked by the market turmoil and exited/sold down at market lows would have done so at a loss. Adding to the pain, they would also have missed out on the recovery and, as the market continued rising, they would not have opportunity to re-enter the market except at a higher price. It will be extremely challenging for them to rebuild the portfolio and recover their losses.

Rainforest Investors (Fund and Private Accounts) -

Happily for investors who courageously invested their funds with us in October, they enjoyed the highest, double-digit, NAV appreciation in November.

As for all our other investors, their calm and fortitude allowed them to ride through the turbulent year, to deservedly benefit from the price recovery/rise now.

A portfolio, no matter how well managed, cannot function well if its investors are as volatile as the market. As fund managers, we recognise that we have a truly remarkable stable of investors and we are most grateful.

To our investors, we say: Thank you ALL very much!

Investment advice and management
For Personal & Family Needs | Retirement | Legacy

Contact us for a private, friendly, no obligation chat at:
[email protected]
https://www.rainforest-research.com.sg/contact

Website:
https://www.rainforest-research.com.sg/

31/12/2022

We wish everyone a very Happy New Year with good physical, emotional and financial health!

Best regards from all of us at Rainforest Research Investment Managers

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26/09/2022

“It is not possible to time the market (whether by humans or computers).
And index-hugging cannot withstand the volatility of the world’s markets.
We aim to maximize investment return while minimizing risk, doing this in a sustainable manner.
This aim is best served using a steady, level-headed approach through qualitative active management of investment.
This would hold throughout any and all market conditions.”

— Extracted from Rainforest Research Investment Managers’ FAQ

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/53032d27e4b095e2b3b9446c/t/632bcec1dc1b8644663a5114/1663815367365/FAQ+Rainforest+Research+Investment+Managers+2022.1.pdf

Our Investment Commentary:

A key event in August was the visit to Taiwan by US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, further deepening the rift between USA and China. Clearly, the US-China trade war and decoupling are resulting in a divided world. Investors need to adjust to this new paradigm.

Interest rates continue to rise, putting pressure on asset prices such as stocks and bonds. While the US markets have been in turmoil, US economic data actually continues to be strong. As an aside, due to the Russia-Ukraine war, USA has exported record amounts of energy (oil & gas) and arms in 2022, which has also helped its finances. The strong US economy has emboldened the US Fed to try to bring inflation under control by raising interest rates. Interest rates and asset prices have an inverse relationship.

Contrary to USA, Europe is having an extremely grim 2022, with energy and food shortages as winter approaches, due in major part to the neighbouring Russia-Ukraine war. Many European-based manufacturers that require high energy input have reduced/stopped production. Economic growth in Germany - the largest economy within EU - is expected to go into negative.

Our previous experiences of riding out market turmoil have taught us that the time is well spent in ‘frenetic inactivity’, as we closely monitor events while taking the opportunity to intensify our research, expand our investment universe and update the data/analysis of companies identified for tracking.

At the same time, we keep a lookout for bargains during this time of price weakness, moving with extreme caution.

We also comb through our existing portfolio to review each and every company to see if they justify their place in the portfolio in light of the current issues.

Questions we are considering deeply in our review and analysis:

US-China trade war – which businesses are unaffected by or may even benefit from the decoupling/deglobalization?
Inflation – which businesses can pass on rising costs to customers?
Rising interest rates – which businesses will be beneficiaries of this?
Down Market – which quality businesses are starting to approach bargain prices?

Investment advice and management for
Personal & Family Needs | Retirement | Legacy

Website:
https://www.rainforest-research.com.sg/

Contact us:
[email protected]
https://www.rainforest-research.com.sg/contact
www.rainforest-research.com.sg