30/05/2020
The U.S. population could rise from about 330 million today to more than 360 million by the decade’s end, depending on a bunch of social and economic factors, such as future immigration levels. Different age groups will get vaccinated at differing rates—hopefully unimpeded by antivaccination sentiments. BMO estimates that will work out to about 30% of America’s head count getting vaccinated each year, or some 100 million treatments a year by the second half of this decade. Put a price from $30 to $130 on those numbers, and you get $3 billion to $13 billion in U.S. sales.
A third of the developed world’s population could get vaccinated every year. That could amount to a $10 billion annual business, at an estimated price of $30 per vaccination. At higher prices, Covid vaccine revenue would be bigger still.