26/03/2026
On Thursday, 19 Mar 2026, 11:01pm, I emailed clients my latest market update titled 'The US Literally Just Added Oil to the Fire', offering key insights on the S&P 500 and more.
To read it, pls click here: https://tinyurl.com/addoiltofire
In this memo, I highlighted that a sharp oil price shock effectively acts as a 'tax' on global growth. If oil prices remain elevated for too long, the market may begin pricing in a global recession scenario.
More importantly, from a technical perspective, I outlined the key support level to watch for the S&P500 near-term is at 6,546 - 6,490. This would likely coincide with RSI approaching oversold levels, where a technical stabilisation may emerge.
True to memo, as of last night (23 Mar), the stabilisation zone has held well, RSI hits oversold and the market bounced back.
1. For Clients invested in our flagship Phillip Global Growth Leaders Portfolio
My decision to reduce US equity exposure since September and reallocate into defensive instruments such as Phillip USD Money Market Funds (~3.2% pa) has helped preserve capital while maintaining yield in a volatile, range-bound market.
The broader message remains unchanged:
We have likely shifted from a 'buy the dip' environment to a more tactical 'manage risk and sell strength' phase.
2. For Clients invested in our flagship curated Bond Portfolio
The situation remains more nuanced for bonds. We should allow the opposing forces of inflation and growth slowdown to play out over time.
If recession risks materialise, equities could correct 20 - 30%, while bonds may benefit from rate cuts and declining yields - providing a natural portfolio balancing effect.
The key question now is:
Where will the S&P 500 head over the next few months, should the current stabilization zone continue to hold?
I will address this in my upcoming update. As usual, Clients will receive my outlook first before it is released publicly.
As always, please do your own due diligence and assess how these views align with your portfolio positioning.
Best regards,
Thomas Ng, CMT
Principal Trading Representative
On Monday, March 19 at 11.01pm, I emailed Clients my latest market update titled "The US Literally Just Added Oil to the Fire", offering key insights on the S&P 500 (aka SPX) - the world's most important index - and more.Below is the full transcript for your perusal:'Dear Clients,Apologies for the s...