09/08/2026
Don’t swim naked! Participate but Protect!
Drop me a line to enquire
On Monday, 1 June 2026, 10.10pm, I emailed clients my latest market update titled, 'Markets at All-Time Highs: Participate, but Protect', offering key insights on the S&P500 and more.
The S&P500 was once again pushing towards all-time highs, having recovered rapidly from the March geopolitical-driven correction.
On the surface, all appeared well. Yet beneath the headlines, softer jobs data, weakening consumer sentiment and growing signs of stress among US consumers suggested a more fragile underlying economy.
In this memo, I examine both sides of the equation:
- Bear case: Elevated valuations + continued downward revisions to US jobs data.
- Bull case: ~US$750bn of AI capex still has to flow through the broader AI value chain, potentially providing a significant tailwind to the US economy.
In other words, in previous economic cycles, sustained weak jobs data would typically have resulted in a far less bullish macro outlook and more conservative US equity valuations.
Today, the AI capex cycle is effectively acting like a super strong ‘steroid injection’ into an otherwise ailing patient - giving the economy and markets a new lease of life.
But this cuts both ways: the longer markets rely on AI to sustain the growth narrative, the more painful the downside could be if the AI story falters prematurely.
More importantly, I introduce my strategy & solution for navigating this unusual environment: 'Participate, but Protect'.
Rather than trying to predict the next correction, the objective is to remain invested while introducing a layer of capital protection.
Thus the key question is:
How do we continue participating in the AI story without leaving everything exposed?
Indeed, the S&P500 went on to hit a fresh all-time high on 2 Jun, before the current stock market weakness - highlighting precisely why I believe this approach is worth considering.
I share my thoughts and two practical use cases in the latest memo.
To get the low-down on the full writeup, pls click here:
https://tinyurl.com/participatebutprotect
As always, please do your own due diligence and assess how these views align with your portfolio positioning.
Best regards,
Thomas Ng, CMT
Principal Trading Representative
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