08/09/2026
Markets are comfortable pricing rates, earnings, currencies and geopolitical risk. They are far less comfortable pricing the weather.
El Niño is now firmly established, expected to persist into early 2027. On its own, that does not guarantee an inflation shock. But it arrives as food prices rise, freight rates climb, oil sits above USD 96 a barrel and supply chains stay vulnerable. Weather moves through crops and shipping routes long before it shows up in a number anyone can act on, which is why it tends to stay underpriced until the effects are visible.
What makes this moment different is not the weather. It is the system it is landing on top of. The FAO Food Price Index hit its highest level since November 2022, and dry bulk freight is at its strongest since October 2021. El Niño did not cause any of this. It just got company.
For Singapore, the picture is mixed. A global PMI at a 27-month high is a clear tailwind for trade, while rising imported food, freight and haze risk is the bill that comes with the same openness.
Rainfall, crop yields and shipping routes have always shaped prices. Markets are only now starting to notice.
Click the link to read the full article. For further enquiries, please contact us at [email protected].
https://www.sdax.co/insight/the-weather-premium
Markets are comfortable pricing interest rates, earnings, currencies and geopolitical risk. They are far less comfortable pricing the weather, and this week suggests that may need to change.