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09/11/2026

10 Nov 2026.....Market Updates

Here is what had happen last night :

1. Oil prices fell about $5-$7 last night after Trump signalled restraint on Iran

2. Nvidia stocks fell 4% as board investigates Jansen Huang's allege spy affair

3. Wall Street traded higher including NASDAQ as risk-on sentiment returned after Trump's restraint on Iran and oil prices fell

4. Hegseth to face impeachment vote this week

5. G7 allies met Rubio in Paris to assess impact off US midterm defeat's effects on the US approach to Ukraine, Iran and the EU allies

6. Senator Elizabeth Warren to take over the Senate Banking Committee in January and would likely implement AI rules and export controls on advanced AI chips to China.

The S&P traded a tad higher and closed @ 7,549 (range 7,437 - 7,574).

Oil and the DXY traded lower.

Brent and Crude Futures closed lower @ 92.33 (previous 97.75) and @ 86.25 (last 90.34) respectively.

The DXY traded lower and closed @ 101.67 (range 101.67-102.13). The US10Y a tad higher and closed @ 4.88% ((range 4.82%-4.88%).

The market went risk-on last night while Nvidia shares plunged as players were elated over the Trump's restraint and willingness to meet war mediator Qatar, although there is no imminent deal to end the war.

Trump now challenges the election defeat and reversed his earlier acceptance of the election outcome, contesting that voting machines and early ballots caused him the midterms.

Today will see the release of the US Core CPI + CPI, US ADP Employment Change and the also the start of the trilateral peace talk (Ukraine/US/Russia) starting in Dubai.

Market dynamics remain volatile and uncertain after a brief weekend of calm and retreat.

The week ahead is light on data but heavy on macro geopolitical outcomes:

1.G7 Meeting in Paris,
2. Hegseth impeachment
3. Dubai Trilateral Peace Talk
4., Trump meeting Qatar negotiator to broker a peace deal between US and Iran

The above will spice up the week.

The XAU/USD rallied and closed above 4120.00 on news that China has bought an additional 25.8 metric tons ahead of tonight's US CPI release.

Technically, the XAU/USD is expected to find resistance @ 4200.00 and made a correction dip towards 3980.00 for the rest off the week.

Looking at the heavy geopolitical week ahead, it looks highly possible.

However, there is a low probability of a 4220.00 breakout which can potentially see a sharp move toward 4500.00 by the end of the week.

The DXY and the US10Y will continue to range trade with a downside bias towards.

Let's see.

08/11/2026

09 Nov 2026........Market Updates

Last Friday saw the release of a super robust set of US NFP @ 165K consensus 65K, previous 60K) and US Unemployment dropping from 4.2% to 4.1% !

The DXY spiked up above 102.00 and closed @ 102.30 (range 101.74-102.36) while the XAU/USD dropped from 4080.00 to hit a low of 4027.17 before closing @ 4070.00 (high 4107.31).

The S&P and the US10Y traded lower and closed @ 7,376 range 7,350-7,438) and @ 4.85% range 4.80%-4.8%) respectively.

Brent and Crude Futures traded a tad lower and closed @ 97.75 (previous 99.41) and @ 990.34 previous 91.20).

Now that the US Midterms is over with Democrats having control over the House and Senate effective from Jan 2027, the unfinished business remains :

1. Trump's post Midterms decision on Iran (Attack or Negotiate)

2. The outcome of the trilateral (Ukraine/US/Russia) ceasefire meeting in Dubai on Tuesday

3. The debt Ceiling on 12 Dec 2026

4. Passing the annual defense bill ($1.5 trillion) before the Democrats take over

5. Possibility of Hegseth being impeached

6. Rubio meeting with G7 foreign ministers in Paris (8-10 Nov 2026) next week.

Trump was sanguine after the severe midterm loss as inner party Republicans started to desert him.

Trump now acknowledged Vance advice not to start the Iran war as the midterms indicated that Vance is right.

Trump has a "TACO" track record when the results do not support him.

It is highly plausible that he may withdraw from Iran, restore oil supply, lower gas price for the voters and still lose nothing.

Looks like we will likely see a "cooling-off" 2 months after a very hot and heated 2026, as political powers start to review and fix their current lessons learnt.

There will be no central bank interest rate announcement till December.

The week ahead is quite light on data releases and the main catalyst will likely come from the newswires on the geopolitical front (Hormu Straits and Ukraine War).

Technically, the XAU/USD is expected to be supported @ 4020.00 (low 4027.17) and attempt to test 4200.00 over the next 3 days.

Let's see what will that trigger may be.

Technically, both the DXY and US10Y is expected to trade sideways with a downside bias towards 100.00 and 4.50% in November.

No comment on the USD/JPY for now as there is still no clear directional bias as it continue to trade inside its 157.00-159.00 pivot.

A break of either side will show the directional bias for the next 100 pips.

Today will be quiet and Singapore will be on Deepavali holiday.

There are no data scheduled for released except for China's CPI and PPI.

Let's see.

05/11/2026

06 Nov 2026.....Market Updates

The US Jobless Claims registered fewer claims indicting a robust US labour sector.

The market soaked in the Democratic overwhelming win in the midterms and dumped AI stocks, as Wall Street collapsed last night.

Hedge Funds and Retail investors both dumped AI stocks as big names like Nvidia, AMD, SpaceX, Applied Materials, Pelantir, Crowdstrike and Tesla collapsed.

Retail Investors dumped a record $358 million in their biggest selling day since 2020.

It was a bloodbath in the NASDAQ as the S&P was dragged down and closed @ 7,353 (range 7,353-7,684).

It is likely that the Democrats will halt and slow down datacentre projects which is the lifeline of AI comapnies.

Both Crude and Brent futures nudged up a bit and closed @ 91.20 (previous 88.00) and @ 99.41 (previous 94.60).

The DXY rallied and closed @ 101.59 (range 101.22-101.71).

The US10Y traded lower and closed @ 4.83% (range 4.80%-4.91%) respectively.

Although Trump has lost the midterms, he still commands foreign policy and veto powers for his final two years.

He still has the latitude to pursue his objectives on the world stage from Iran to Ukraine and China.

Trump acknowledged that the Iran War cost him the midterms.

Fellow Republicans now asked Trump to change course after the Midterms by shaking up his White House personel , restore discipline and scrap policies like the Iran War and Tariffs.

However, Trump showed little indication that he viewed the election outcomes as a reason to change direction.

Hence, the uncertainties will continue and this weekend will be watched carefully as Trump is noted to launch strikes on Iran on weekends!

Next week sees the trilateral meeting of Ukraine/US/Russia over the peace talks in Dubai.

The BOE hike interest rates by 25 bp, following the RBA hike, last night.

We have now reached the end of the end of the week, and the focus will be tonight's Nonfarm Payroll, Unemployment and the Michigan 1-Year/5-Year Inflation expectations for validation of a Fed's rate hike in December.

Technically, the XAU/USD will likely find support between 4050.00-4080.00 for a move for 4220.00 today.

Thereafter, it is expected to correct towards 4000.00 before restarting its upside disrupted trip to 5485.00 over the next months.

The USD/JPY technicals are totally messed up and will revisit once I get clearer signals.

Let's see.

04/11/2026

05 Nov 2026........Market Updates

Here is what had happened last night :

1. The Democrats swept a big win on both the House and Senate in the US Midterms Elections

2.The US ADP Employment Change registered 86K (consensus 67K, previous 86K) indicating a robust US labour market

3. Wall Street rallied as oil plunges in reaction to the US Midterms results

The S&P rallied and closed @ 7,688 (range 7,650-77,715).

Brent and Crude Futures traded lower and closed @ 94.60 (previous 104.26) and @ 88.00 (previous 96.76).

Both the DXY and US10Y fell and closed @ 101.51 (range 101.10-101.62) and @ 4.88% (range 4.87%-4.96%).

The Democrats victory saw Tesla and SpaceX stocks trading lower while Apple stock rallied.

Trump lost the US Midterms on the following :

1. Starting the Iran War

2. High oil prices resulting for the closure of the Hormuz Straits

3. Plans to extensively build data centers which his voters were against

4. Inflation in daily necessities

5. Reducing public health and education funding to his other priorities..

Finally, the XAU/USD spiked up from 3919.00 to 4070.00.

Trump was also accepting the loss and not challenging it and that fueled risk on sentiment.

JD Vance (potential 2028 US Presidential Candidate) was not apologetic and wrote that Trump compromised the Republican's position, because Trump ignored US Intel and his advice that a war with Iran will not deliver the desired results.

Trump actually agreed with him and still proceeded to talk about the pristine white house ballroom renovations!

Trump may have lost both House and Senate but he still retain his Veto Powers as sitting President.

He could still launch a strike on Iran in the next 2 months, as technically, he still has the House and Senate till end 2026.

While longer term market volatilities is now contained by the Democrats' sweeping victory, short term uncertainties (till end 22026) remains high as Trump can still operate as before the Midterms Election, for the remaining 2 months.

Technically, the XAU/USD has sprouted a bottom and is likely to test 4130.00 with 4020.00 as support today (recent low was 3869.00)

A meaningful correction will start once it hits 4200.00 next week.

The DXY and US10Y fell but the USD/JPY did not follow and rallied to a high of 158.80, despite repeated BOJ verbal intervention over the newswires yesterday.

Focus will now be on whether Trump will launch a war, or negotiate with Iran and that is the geopolitical wild card.

Russia, Ukraine and the US will meet next Tuesday for talks to end the war.

The BOE will likely hike interest rates today.

The GBP/USD has already rallied and is expected to hit 1.3530 (current 1.3475) after the BOE announcement later.

The US jobless Claims will be released tonight followed by the US NFP and Unemployment tomorrow.

Let's see.

04/11/2026

04 Nov 2026.......Market Updates

AI stocks recovered and lifted the NASDAQ, while supporting the S&P after above consensus JOLTs and Factory Orders were released last night.

Speculation of a US/Iran peace talks was the one that lifted the investors' optimism.

The recent AI volatilities that hit the market had seen investors scrambling to the traditional safe haven (JPY, CHF, USD & US Treasuries) but not Gold.

The reason for the AI solid rebound came after AMD 3Q earnings came on strong, with revenue rising 97%.

Apple beats Q4 estimates on strong iPhone sales, but its stock price fell as it misses the revenue from China.

Oil prices were trading flat near their recent lows with Brent and WTI Futures closing @ 104.26 (last 104.28) and @ 96.76 (last 96.26).

The S&P also traded flat and closed @ 7,568 (range 7,554-7,593).

The US10Y and the DXY also traded flat and closed @ 4.96% (range 4.89%-4.97%) and @ 101.88 (range 101.63-101.94) respectively.

On the geopolitical front, Russia bombarded Ukraine power grid ahead of the Abu Dhabi trilateral Ukraine/US/Russia talks next week.

Meanwhile, the US/Iran peace negotiations ended with no deal as expectations form both ends are still very far apart.

It was now reported that intelligence sharing between the CIA and NIC has broken down after Trump sacked an intelligence analyst for Intel which was not to his liking.

This could be one of the reasons why Trump has not initiated strikes against Iran for lack of reliable Intel.

The RBA hike its interest rates as expected from 4.60% to 4.85% yesterday, while China raise its FX reserve requirement to slow the rising CNY.

The CNY rose on China's trade surplus, which is likely to top $1 trillion for a second year, on very strong exports.

However, its domestic consumption is still chronically weak.

The XAU/USD oscillated inside its 3870.000-4000.00 pivot zone yesterday trading inside a range of 3890.00 - 3970.00 before closing @ 3925.00.

The USD/JPY is has recovered to close @ 158.78 retesting the 159.00 BOJ line of attack again.

There will be no technical updates today, as the US Midterms elections is still ongoing with voting expected to stop at 8 am today (Singapore) with vote counts to commence thereafter.

Hopefully, we get to see the results over the next 24 hours.

S&P Global Flash PMI data from the EU.UK and the US are scheduled to be released together with the US ADP Employment Change today.

Let's see.

02/11/2026

03 Nov 2026........Market Updates

Oil prices fell last night, as confidence of a potential peace deal in the middle-east hit the market yesterday.

Brent and Crude Futures closed lower @ 104.28 (previous 112.07) and @ 96.26 (previous 102.95).

However, latest news from the Mecca Pact said that after days of negotiation between Iran and Qatar, talks ended with altered proposals but no deals.

The XAU/USD spiked up from its 3869.00 low to a high of 3970.55 before closing @ 3948.00.

The NASDAQ started the month of November with a 1% loss as concerns over AI cost over revenue continues to weigh.

Musk has announced that Grok subscribers demand is overwhelming, but the cost of delivering the AI service, is much higher than the subscription revenue.

As such, he is increasing the subscription fees.

This is one aspect why investors are spooked by the cost side of the AI equation, as the AI consumption demand is there but does not commensurate with the high cost of delivery, which ultimately impact bottom-line revenues.

Apple's after market closed earnings beat consensus by $0.10 and revenue by $1.1 billion, due to its robust iPhone sales.

However, its stock price close 4% lower afterhours from $338 (closing price) to $325 (after closing price).

The S&P traded lower and closed @ 7,541 (range 7,541-7,661).

The DXY and the US10Y nudged higher and closed @ 101.75 (range 101.42-101.89) and @ 4.91% (range 4.86%-4.98%) respectively.

The market now turn their attention to the US Midterm Election today.

Trump's popularity is clearly at its lowest with the Democrats now clear to win both the House and Senate.

The Iran war, high oil prices and cost of living became the main "promised non-deliveries" by Trump, since he took over in 2025.

Trump was even talking about the upgrading of the Lincoln Memorial Reflection Pool at his last campaign speech!

Technically, the XAU/USD saw a brief spike up from a low of 3869.00 to a high of 3970.00.

The reversal of its recent downtrend not conclusive, as it is currently entrapped inside the 3870.00--4000.00 pivot range.

Will not make any directional bias forecast for now.

Will sit through the US Midterm Elections for another 48 hours to allow the market to settle before picking up the GPS directional signals.

Japan is out on holiday today as the RBA is scheduled to announce its interest rates decision (may hike) at 11.30 am Singapore.

That would be followed by a press statement at 2.30 pm.

The US JOLTs and Factory Orders will be announced tonight.

The Midterm Results will likely be known only on Wednesday 10 am Singapore time, barring any hiccups.

Let's see.

31/10/2026

Nov 2026.....Market Updates

Here is what had happened last Friday :

1. NASDAQ tumbled 2.8% posting its worst single day decline since June

2. INTEL fell 2% wiping about $12 billion off government's stake, its worst day since the 1970's

3. SpaceX lost more than %500 billion in market value in less than a month

4. Hackers stole $6.3 billion from Binance, the world's biggest cryptocurrency exchange

5. Tankers defy Iran's attacks and continue to ship substantial Japan, the EU and the US volumes of crude oil through the Hormuz Straits

6. Oil jumps 2% and settled at 6-month highs on fears of escalation in Iran

7. Fed officials now said they are ready to hike rates soon after the Fed held rates unchanged last week.

The S&P fell and closed @ 7,579 (range 7,5277,635). The DXY traded higher and closed @ 101.96 (range 101.55102.08).

The market is still fearful of AI counters as investors dumped AI stocks to lock in profits for the year end.

The US10Y traded flat and closed @ 4.92% (range 4.89%-4.95%) last Friday.

The XAU/USD traded from a high of 4019.13 , broke below 3970.00 and hit a low of 3869.98 before closing @ 3874.00 last Friday.

Players are dumping Gold on more hawkish Fed's broadcast, risk-off in AI stocks and higher oil prices.

The biggest mover was XAG/USD, which fell from a its 20 Oct high of 58.00 to a low of 48.84 last Friday.

The USD/JPY traded from a high of 157.90 to a low of 156.96 before closing higher @ 157.55.

Technically, the XAG and XAU are both at a critical support of 48.50 and 4670.00 which, if not reversed on Monday, can potentially crashed lower to 34.50 and 3600.00 respectively.

The technical call for the XAU/USD to move higher towards 4500.00 has now been destroyed.

Will not be making any technical directional calls till Thursday to allow the price actions to unfold and settle after the release of the US Midterms Elections results .

The month of November is heavy with macro events such as:

1 The outcome of Trump's Iran war decision after the US Midterms.

2. The trilateral peace talk between the US/Russia/Ukraine to be held after the 10 Nov 2026.

3. Trump will be meeting Xi in Shenzhen at the APAC Summit on 18 Nov 2026.

The week will kick off heavy with the US Midterms Elections, S&P Global PMI flash numbers from Japan, the EU and the US.

The RBA and the BOE will also be announcing their interest rates decisions.

Friday will end the first week of November, with the release of US NFP and Unemployment data.

Monday is expected to be a day of consolidation, as the XAU/USD and XAG/USD will be watched closely for further downside bais.

The Far East market has not got a chance to react to last Friday's Wall Street risk off

Let's see.

29/10/2026

30 Oct 2026.......Market Updates

Wall Street fell, despite lower bond yields and upbeat economic growth data and a neutral US PCE Price Index last night.

Market is questioning Warsh's credibility as he announced a Fed rate hold on Wednesday.

Warsh admitted that US economic growth is strong, inflation is too high and employment data is still healthy.

Hence, the market is begging the question, "Why was interest rates not raised?"

Is he returning Trump a favour before the US Midterms?

NASDAQ fell 1.5% as Alphabet lost 12%, after missing earnings and posting negative cash flow of $9.07 billion.

Intel and Amazon shares also slid lower on weaker than consensus AI earnings and outlook.

However, the S&P firm up a tad and closed @ 7,720 range 7,691-7,731) as US10Y and the DXY fell.

The DXY and the US10Y closed below 102.00 and 5% respectively.

The DXY closed @ 101.92 (range 101.86-102.44). The US10Y closed @ 4.93% (range 4.92%-5.02%).

The XAU/USD fell and hit 4005.00 low, despite a lower DXY and US10Y.

This was predicated mainly on higher oil prices and a potential December US rate hike plus rotation out of AI stocks to defensive stocks.

Brent and WTI Futures closed higher @ 111.56 (previous 110.2) and @ 102.86 (previous 102.08).

The USD/JPY traded inside a 157.50-158.00 range, waiting for the BOJ Interest Rates Decision (likely to hold rates) during the Far East session today.

Lagarde announced that she will step down as ECB Governor yesterday and will continue as caretaker, till Feb 2027 to nominate the next ECB Governor.

She cited her decision to quit due to her inability to remain neutral to world's affairs, and hence better to step down earlier for a smooth transition.

We have come to the last trading day of October and there are lots off "mega-events" looming in the month of November.

The events are :

1. US Midterms Elections (next Tuesday)

2. US/Israel's joint attack plans on Iran after the US Midterms?

3. The Mecca Pact (Iran/Saudi/Turkey) outcome

4. Ukraine/Russia/US trilateral ceasefire talk after 10 Nov 2026

5. Trump to meet Xi at the APAC Summit (17-18 Nov) in Shenzhen.

These events will garner a lot of pre-event volatilities, due to the year-end Hedge Funds "window-dressing" to end 2026!

Whatever investment assets that are over valued will be rotated to undervalue investment assets to lock in profits and to stay invested for 2027.

Hence, November and December could be the months that will offer more directional clarity over the 2026 global conflicts into 2027.

The main catalyst for whatever had happen since 2025 and 2026 is none other than Donald Trump!

Technically, the DXY and the US10Y is expected to continue lower while the XAU/USD is expected to search for a base between 3970.00-4000.00.

Hence current levels are low risk for a BUY towards 4600.00 (revised end 2026 target?)

Japan's CPI just reported a 2.8% (2.7% previous).

Let's see if the BOJ will hike rates later @ 11.30 Singapore time

28/10/2026

29 Oct 2026......Market Updates

The RBNZ surprised market by holdings rates, while the FED held rates as expected yesterday.

Wall Street traded higher together with Brent and WT Futures.

Both the DXY and the US10Y traded a tad firmer, undecided over its next directional bias.

Netanyahu is set to remain in power (caretaker role) despite losing the house majority.

That means he is still able to command the Iran war until election take splace again in 2027.

With 86% of votes tallied yesterday, Netanyahu is projected to win 53 seats out of 120 seats, well ahead of the 48 seats for rival Gadi Eisenkot.

In the US more than 36 million people have voted early.

At this early stage, the Democrats is leading the Republicans, but the Republicans' votes usually surge in on election day itself.

That surge could still wrestle back the early Democrats' lead.

US consumers look resilient despite higher prices for gas.

Warsh in his press conference said that he is confident that inflation will get down in a timely fashion amidst market skepticism.

Alphabet (Google) shares fell 9% after its revenue missed earnings expectations.

Microsoft rose 4% after growth in its software giant's Azure cloud business helped its earnings report.

The S&P closed a tad higher @ 7,744 (range 7,721-7,758).

The DXY and US10Y traded flat and closed @ 102.15 (range 102.05-102.48) and @ 5.02% (range 4.98%-5.04%) respectively.

WTI and Brent Futures closed higher @ 102.08 (previous 99.97) and @ 110.72 (previous 109.77) respectively.

The USD/JPY surged above 158.00 (high 158.35) going into the US Interest Rates announcement but eased off below 158.00 and closing @ 157.75 after the announcement.

The XAU managed to stay above 4000.00 (low 4025.00) and closed @ 4062.00.

Technically, the USD/JPY has been a wild card for the past 2 months, sticking around the 156.50-158.50 range, waiting for a clear directional bias.

It has been a technically frustrating period as multiple top set--ups, all failed to deliver the technical crash.

The JPY continues to weaken because of the interest rates differential between the US and Japan.

The XAU/USD exhibited 3 days of basing price actions and is currently validating a spike towards 4150.00 first.

Hence, the XAU/USD is still a BUY-ON-DIPS.

There are no US data today, as the focus will shift to the ECB Interest Rates Decision (likely hold rates), followed by tomorrow BOJ Interest Rates Decision (likely hold rates).

We are now exactly 7 days away from the US Midterms election.

Trump's popularity remains at a low of 32% and it will be interesting to see if he can pull off a similar feat like Netanyahu and retain his command to see the next phase of the Iran war.

Let's see.

27/10/2026

28 Oct 2026...........Market Updates

The US ADP Employment Change and US Durable Goods data registered weaker than consensus numbers, while the CB Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales registered better consensus numbers last night.

Oil prices also continue to dip as the WTI closed @ 99.97 (previous 101.36) and Brent closed @ 109.77 (previous 110.23) last night.

Investors continued to ride the AI wave as the market now perceives 90% that the Fed will hold rates today.

However, Warsh is expected to deliver a hawkish press statement thereafter.

Besides the Fed, the RBNZ is expected to announce a 25 bp rate hike during the Far East session today.

Besides the Fed, players are watching closely for the earnings report from Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet (Google) after the US stock market closes today.

These three companies plan to spend $600 billion combine this year and that could be fatal, as investors had little appetite for spending and shrinking cash flow.

Interestingly, Anthropic's IPO is now generating a lot of interest despite its recent price fall.

Anthropic shows it has a cash pile of $131.7 billion, the highest cash holding for any US company that has filed for IPO listing in the US.

On top of that, Anthropic also has a plan to control AI, long after its leaders depart.

The S&P closed a tad firmer @ 7,722 (range 7,677-7,738).

The DXY traded higher with the S&P and closed @ 102.37 (range 102.044-102.39).

The US10Y closed @ 4.98% (range 4.95%-5.00%).

The USD/JPY traded higher and hit 157.97 (last-line-of-defense) while the XAU/USD pulled away from 4000.00 lows to closed above 4450.00 @ 4062.00 last night.

The Israel election look likely to replace Netanyahu but the full and final results is expected by 30 Oct but will only be published a week after the election (Nov 4).

Hence, we may get to see both Trump and Netanyahu election results announced on the same day.

Trump is losing his grip on the red states as higher oil price (higher than Biden's term) saw Texas, a state that the Democrats has not won since the Great Depression, changing from red to blue.

The recent Brazil election saw Lula taking over from the ruling party, also wrestled away Trump's ambitions to "influence" Latin America, as Lula is pro-China.

Technically, the XAU/USD may have establish a base @ 3975.00.

This will be confirmed if we get to see 4150.00 by the end of the week.

Will then look to BUY on dips to re-establish the 5485.00 target, but the ETA will be in 2017.

Likewise, the USD/JPY is now testing its technical resistance 158.00 and is expected to reverse direction for 153.00 first, before gunning for 145.00 (end 2026).

Let's see.

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