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11 Jun 2026......Market UpdatesTwo main headlines gripped the market last night as the DXY and the US10Y closed at the h...
10/06/2026

11 Jun 2026......Market Updates

Two main headlines gripped the market last night as the DXY and the US10Y closed at the high while the S&P fell.

1. US Inflation registered 4.2% (highest in 3 years right after Trump took over from Biden)

2. US military relaunch the Iran war by striking "multiple targets in Iran".

The S&P closed lower @ 7,267 (range 7,267-7,395).

The DXY and the US10Y closed @ 100.08 (range 00.73-100.08) and @ 4.56% (range 4.51%-4.57%) respectively.

Israel was also reported to join the fray by launching strikes on south Lebanon killing 12.

The US CPI registered 4.2% (previous 3.8%) as Trump responded in an interview, that he "loves inflation" as he knows it will drop like a bomb after the Iran war is over!

Warsh is now relieved as that provided him the space to hike US Interest rates next week.

The BOJ may keep rates on hold as the BOJ Governor, Ueda was hospitalised yesterday and will miss the scheduled policy meeting next Tuesday.

In response to the news and events, the XAU/USD fell through 2 support targets : 4180.00 and 4080.00 (range 4066.95-4228.78).

The next target is 3600.00 as the market reacts to the Iran war, causing US interest rates higher, making Long XAU more expensive.

The dollar rallied against all currencies, including the JPY last night, but at various momentum.

The USD/JPY notched up a marginal high of 160.58 (latest high 160.45) before closing @ 160.53.

Technically, the USD/JPY is currently inside a pivot (160.30-160.90) and a break of either side will see a directional bias of 150 pips.

The XAU/USD is also inside a pivot (4000.00-4200.00) and a break of either side can see a directional bias of $200 move.

The DXY, is also inside a pivot (99.50-100.50) and a break of either side will see a directional bias for the next 50 pips.

The technical is still favouring a bullish dollar bias against all currencies but the intensity of the dollar momentum remains exclusive to the currency pair due to its unique circumstances.

The focus today will be on the ECB Interest Rate Decision (likely to hike) and the US Jobless Claims.

Fresh war news from the newswires will continue to be the catalyst for today's move.

Let's see.

10 Jun 2026.....Market UpdatesThe market was steady and quiet until Trump ordered new strikes against Iran @ 5 pm Washin...
09/06/2026

10 Jun 2026.....Market Updates

The market was steady and quiet until Trump ordered new strikes against Iran @ 5 pm Washington time (how convenient as that was when US stock market closes!).

This was in retaliation to the downing of a US Apache attack helicopter by an Iranian drone!.

The Far East has not reacted yet as it was too early to react.

The XAU/USD fell from a high of 4363.87 to a low of 4236.25 (likely to hit its first pit-stop @ 4180.00 when the Far East opens).

The USD/JPY was steadily losing ground as it eased from 160.25 to 160.05, but spiked up to a high of 160.45 after the news was released.

Crude Oil Futures (WTI) jumped up by $1 from 88.50 to 89.88.

The S&P futures was down as the S&P closed @7,386 (range 7240-7,481).

The DXY rallied and closed @ 99.99 (range 99.68 - 100.08). The US10Y closed lower @ 4.52 (range 4.51%-4.56%).

The US ADP Employment Change registered a weaker number @ 29K (previous 35.75K), while the US Trade Balance registered a better number @ --55.90B (consensus -56.20B, previous -56.60B) last night.

That supported the S&P at opening, but the market eased off from its high immediately.

The BOJ yesterday said that it could hold off a rate hike next week as it could still maintain its government bond purchase at the current 2.1 trillion Yen pace per month.

The USD/JPY did not react and stayed in the 160.10-20 range.

China reported a very strong set of Trade Balance data with Exports @ 19.4% (consensus 15%, previous 14.1%).

Technically, the DXY is expected to re-try 101.00 today as 99.80 intraday support was briefly violated (low 99.68) before closing just below 100.00.

The XAU/USD traded lower like clockwork and hit a low of 4236.25 and is likely to continue its quest towards our first pit-stop @ 4180.00, before finding a temporary support.

The USD/JPY is quite tricky, as it can potentially trade above 160.75 and beyond.

Its fate is in the hands of the BOJ, who may still emerge and see a 300 pips sharp move down, despite the fresh war news between the US and Iran.

The US Core CPI and CPI will be the only US data scheduled for release today.

The focus will be on the newswires update about the Middle East wars.

Let's see.

09 Jun 2026.....Market UpdatesAfter last Friday's S&P sell-off, we got a weak rebound last night, even after Iran and Is...
08/06/2026

09 Jun 2026.....Market Updates

After last Friday's S&P sell-off, we got a weak rebound last night, even after Iran and Israel has decided to pause after exchanging strikes on each other.

Trump was reported over the newswires telling Netanyahu that he will be on his own and not get the US support if he continues the strike at Iran.

This serves as the basis for the S&P rally (very weak) as players placed more weight on interest rates hikes and AI exuberance more than the war!

The week ahead will see SpaceX IPO (Friday) and though SpaceX is a loss-making company, investors don't seem to care and wanted a price of the IPO.

Given last week's DXY performance, it seemed like AI and S&P rally have finally met its match: expected US FED rate hike on 18 June 2026.

The ECB will likely start the ball rolling this Thursday and hike 25 bp.

Next week will see 4 central bank, BOJ + RBA (16 Jun) and BOE + FED (18 Jun), likely to hike interest rates!

The S&P traded up initially on the Israel/Iran ceasefire but fell off its weak rally and closed @ 7,405 (range 7,396-7,466).

The DXY also gave up its upside momentum, on the Iran/Israel ceasefire news and closed @ 100.00 (range 99.83-100.20).

The US10Y rallied and closed 4.56% (range 4.52%-4.58%).

Technically, the DXY flinched off from its 100.50 resistance and is expected to find day support @ 99.80 for a retake of 101.00.

The USD/JPY came off from a high of 160.39 and landed a low of 159.85 before closing @ 160.17 on the ceasefire news.

The XAU/USD landed a low of 4268.13 and closed @ 4326.00 (high 4353.68) as it continues its down trend towards 4180.00 (1st pit-stop).

4380.00 will likely see a top for the XAU/USD to resume its move lower, towards 4180.00 over the next 2 days.

The USD/JPY is quite tricky to call, as the move below 160.00 was not the usual sharp down and up events that we saw multiple times last week, suggesting that maybe it has crested @ 160.50?

The BOJ may be waiting for a clearer ceasefire, before acting, as it has lost $73 billion the last round it intervened @ 160.65 on 30 Apr 2026 (low was 154.95).

Today's US data scheduled for release will be the ADP Employment Change, Trade Balance and Existing Home Sales.

News coverage of the Middle East wars will be watched closely in conjunction with how the S&P will behave tonight.

Let's see.

8 Jun 2026.......Market UpdatesLast Friday's NFP registered a very strong number of 172,000 (consensus 85,000, previous ...
06/06/2026

8 Jun 2026.......Market Updates

Last Friday's NFP registered a very strong number of 172,000 (consensus 85,000, previous 179,000) while the US Unemployment Rate stayed steady @ 4.3%.

The report was double-edged as it provide reassurance of a healthy US economy but also increase the likelihood of an interest rate hike on 18 Jun 2026.

At the same time, both Israel/Hezbollah and the US/Iran ceasefire was short-lived, as fighting resumed.

The Straits of Hormuz is now closed with no expected timeline for reopening.

Iran reaffirmed its support for Hezbollah and demanded that Israel withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon before any ceasefire negotiations can take place between the US and Iran.

Trump had a tense moment with Netanyahu but Israel is not stepping down on the gas.

Hence, expectations of an interest rate hike and the Iran war weighed on sentiment as the market squared its Long AI related equity positions ahead of the weekend.

BTC also dropped below 60,000, together with Gold and Silver.

The DXY and the US10Y rallied on strong US economic results which suggest that the Fed might hike US interest rates on 18 June 2026.

The S&P gapped down on open and closed lower @ 7,384 (range 7,318-7,541).

The DXY and the US10Y spiked up and closed @ 100.06 (range 99.16-100.09) and @ 4.53% (range 4.45%-4.55%) respectively.

Technically, it was a surprised dollar up-move as technicals were calling for a lower dollar against all currencies.

The technical picture was destroyed immediately after the release of the US NFP and Unemployment Rate. last Friday.

The XAU/USD broke below 4420.00 and closed @ 4327.00 (range 4311.50-4476.24) while the USD/JPY broke above its "last-line-of-defense" @ 160.15 and closed @ 160.30 (range 159.73-160.34).

The BOJ tried to intervene but the lowest it managed was 159.73.

Given the bullish breakouts on the DXY, USD/JPY and the lower XAU/USD, the dollar upside momentum is expected to continue in the week ahead.

The USD/JPY is now "open" to see 162.20 while the XAU/USD is expected to resume its drop towards 3900.00.

The DXY is now expected to trek towards 105.00 if it is able to stay above 100.00 support this week.

It will be interesting to see if the BOJ will intervene and what is the "after-intervention" price actions.

The week ahead is rather quiet with only the ECB announcing its interest rates decision (likely a hike).

The other economic data release are not major data and the focus is still on news from the war in the Middle East and in Ukraine.

Let's see.

05 Jun 2026......Market UpdatesThe Israel/Hezbollah ceasefire collapsed again as Hezbollah and Israel continue fighting ...
04/06/2026

05 Jun 2026......Market Updates

The Israel/Hezbollah ceasefire collapsed again as Hezbollah and Israel continue fighting last night.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei's message that the US and Israel had been dealt a "decisive blow' in the Middle East, after the Iranian government reported "no tangible progress" in negotiating to end the war.

The IAEA reported that nothing has changed with regards to Iran's nuclear capability from February (before the US Operation Fury) and now and they were not able to access the actual sites physically due to the ongoing war.

The "ceasefire good news" were short lived, as the DXY rebounded from its low of 99.19 after taking a plunge form a high of 99.52 (99.50 is a critical resistance) and closed @ 99.44.

The US10Y followed a similar trajectory and closed @ 4.47% (range 4.45%-4.49%).

The S&P recovered form its previous day's low but still closed below 7,600 @ 7,584 (range 7,530-7,597), as players rotated out from AI stocks to non-tech stocks such as United Health, JP Morgan and Walmart.

The rotation was sparked by a sell-off in Broadcom that led players to pare exposures related to AI.

Hence, the XAU/USD fell back to close below 4500.00 (high 4515.00), after recovering from a low of 4443.00 to close @ 4475.00.

The USD/JPY fell briefly to a low of 159.60 (BOJ verbal intervention) but recovered swiftly to hit a high of 160.04 before closing @ 160.03 (160.15 is now a critical resistance).

Technically, the DXY is still on track to test the lower 98.50 support as it has tested 99.50 resistance for the last 2 days.

Hence, the XAU/USD is expected to find support @ 4440.00 for a retake of 4530.00 and eventually 4680.00 next week.

The USD/JPY is still a tricky call as it tested 160.00 seven times since 2 Jun 2026.

However, the technicals are still calling for a sharp move down to 150.50 from its current levels.

This will be triggered either by the BOJ or a real US/Iran full ceasefire signed deal.

We have reached the end of the first week of June and the US NFP and Unemployment Rate will be announced tonight.

Fresh news from the Middle East will still be the primary trigger over the weekend.

Let's see.

04 Jun 2026......Market UpdatesThe S&P traded lower while the US10Y and DXY traded higher last night, after the US poste...
03/06/2026

04 Jun 2026......Market Updates

The S&P traded lower while the US10Y and DXY traded higher last night, after the US posted positive US ADP Employment Change, Factory Orders and Services PMI .

The Beige Book reported moderate economic growth resilience amid persistent inflation

The S&P finally saw profit taking ahead of pending IPOs from SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI, as doubts over the market's capacity to absorb the new supply, that is in the $1 trillion and $1.75 trillion league!

The S&P could not stay above 7,600 and closed @ 7,554 (range 7,551-7,597).

The DXY traded just above its critical resistance @ 99.50 and closed @ 99.54 (range 99.25-99.55), while the US10Y closed @ 4.49% (4.46%-4.50%) respectively.

Here are the headlines:

1. The House of Representatives voted to halt US military actions against Iran as a handful of Republicans joined Democrats to end the 3-month long Iran war

2.. Hezbollah launches rockets at Israel while Iran launches drones at Kuwait International Airport in retaliation to "US self-defense" attacks on Iran missile sites.

3. Netanyahu downplays row with Trump, while Trump admitted calling him crazy over joint phone calls to stop the war in Lebanon

4. Trump said that Iran had agreed to not having nuclear weapons while both sides are still poles-apart with communications still open. (Iran confirms this)

6. Trump will rebuild his Liberalisation Tariffs (illegal) and now proposed a new tariff of at least 10% on imports from 60 trading partners, using 301 tariffs, which allow a President to impose tariff on countries which use unfair practice that undermines the US economy (e.g. forced child labour).

A lot had happened last night but there was no progress, as the USD/JPY briefly tanked from 159.95 to 159.36 on Japan's PM's rare warning of interventions

The loss was quickly replaced with a sharp spike back up to 160.10.

The market seemed very intent on testing Japan's resolve after Japan wasted $73.5 billion on interventions on 29 April 2026.

Technically, the XAU/USD last-line-of-defense @ 4415.00 (low 4426.00) is expected to hold for a move towards 4680.00.

Once it gets there, I will need to recalibrate if we are still bound for the 3900.00(longer term) support.

The USD/JPY has run its last wave count, projected 160.15 (high 160.10) and is now up to the BOJ to deliver its resolve.

What is left is tonight's US Jobless Claims and tomorrow US NFP and Unemployment rate and of course, news updates on the progress of the war.

Let's see

03 Jun 2026......Market UpdatesIt was a quiet day yesterday but lots of news events took place:1. Israel strike south Le...
02/06/2026

03 Jun 2026......Market Updates

It was a quiet day yesterday but lots of news events took place:

1. Israel strike south Lebanon after stepping back from Beirut attack on Trump's request

2. Netanyahu faces sharp criticisms for having lost Israeli's sovereignty, by acquiescing to Trump's demand to stop fighting the Hezbollah and is weighing on his reelection chances in October

3. Iran was reported to be studying the latest US proposal for a 60 day ceasefire negotiation

4. Rubio was testifying to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that it was fake news that the US and Iran had stopped talking to each other

5. Trump scrapping plans to create $1.8 billion fund meant to compensate 2020 election rioters

6. US impose sanctions on Iran's biggest crypto exchange over IRGC links

7. US JOLTs registered a strong number of 7.618M (consensus 6.860M, previous 6.887M) .

Despite the geopolitical uncertainties, the S&P notched another new historical high and closed @ 7,609 (range 7,583 - 7,620) as the market continues its bull-run, as there was no major changes in the US/Iran war.

Small Caps were the ones that attracted lots of demand as it finally do "catch up" with the MAGA 7 stocks.

US JOLTs showed that job openings rose to the highest in 2 years and was the fastest increase in 5 years.

The strong number was concentrated in one sector (professional and services) but the rate of hiring, layoffs and quits were lower, indicating stagnation rather than a buoyant market.

Inflation across the world is rising (in part due to the closure of the Hormuz Straits) and the ECB looks likely to hike interest rates next week .

There is also good chance that the BOJ, BOE and the FED to do so in the weeks to follow.

Technically, the XAU/USD rebounded like clock-work after basing out @ 4450.00 and hit a high of 4542.00 before closing @ 4492.00.

It is expected to retry and close above 4550.00 over the next 2 days.

The USD/JPY hit a new high of 159.99, effectively testing the BOJ's resolve (160.00) and close @ 159.92.

It has traded above its "last-line-of-defense" @ 159.55 and is currently at a point of directional inflection, to either see 162.00 or 154.00 depending on the BOJ.

The DXY range traded and closed @ 99.22 (range 99.05-99.32) while the US10Y closed @ 4.46% (range 4.42% - 4.46%) respectively.

The focus today will be the release of the US ADP Employment Change and the Services PMI from China, the EU, the UK and the US.

Let's see.

02 June 2026......Market UpdatesReports of renewed strikes by US and Iran and also Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, drov...
01/06/2026

02 June 2026......Market Updates

Reports of renewed strikes by US and Iran and also Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, drove up oil price and the dollars last night.

Iranian news media reported that Iran negotiators will stop communicating with the US and will completely shut the Straits of Hormuz.

Tehran suspended talks in protest of Israel's expanding offensive in Lebanon.

Trump was very "cool" with that and was reported to have spoken with both Hezbollah and Netanyahu to stop the war in Lebanon.

It was a very confusing situation as Trump cannot be trusted.

He spins daily narratives that Iran is desperate for a ceasefire and he can allow oil prices to soar higher, as a small price to pay to remove a nuclear weapon from Iran.

The market "ignored" the geopolitical news and went risk-on as Anthropic filed for IPO yesterday, ahead of rival OpenAI.

Nvidia also made headline news and rallied 6% when it announced that its new processor chip for laptop will be embedded with new AI chips.

The S&P made another new historical high and closed @ 7,600 (range 7,570-7,616).

The DXY closed higher @ 98.17 (range 98.92-99.38), pulled along by higher oil prices due to the deteriorating war news in the middle east.

The US10Y traded sideways and closed @ 4.45% (range 4.44%-4.51%) after mixed US manufacturing data were released last night.

Technically, the XAU/USD fell $100 from 4546.42 to 4447.52 while the USD/JPY spiked up from 159.36 to 159.76 on the breakdown in ceasefire talks between the US and Iran.

The BOJ was nowhere to be seen as the USD/JPY had traded above 159.55 (mini last-line-of-defense).

Technically, at current levels, the XAU/USD is expected to rally with support @ 4440.00, the DXY to cap 99.50 for a move back to 98.50 target.

The USD/JPY has a BOJ Intervention cap @ 160.00 (high 159.76) and may still see a sharp 300 pips reversal down should the BOJ strike when the Far East market opens later.

The US JOLTs will be the only data scheduled for release today.

Focus will be on the BOJ and further news update from the wars in the middle east.

Let's see.

30 May 2026......Market UpdatesThe month of May ended last Friday with the S&P notching another historical high, despite...
30/05/2026

30 May 2026......Market Updates

The month of May ended last Friday with the S&P notching another historical high, despite no decision on Trump's acceptance of the latest agreed US/Iran ceasefire MOU.

Nevertheless, the S&P notched another historical high, while the DXY, US10Y and Oil traded a tad lower, buoyed by optimism that a deal will be reached.

The risk-on in the S&P and Nasdaq was still predicated on the confidence of Tech and AI sectors outperforming, even though the US has not resolved its electricity grid that is expected to drive the AI sectors.

The S&P traded to another historical high and closed @ 7,581 (range 7,563-7,598).

The DXY and the US10Y closed a tad lower @ 98.94 (range 98.75-99.19) and @ 4.43% (range 4.42%-4.46%) respectively.

Meanwhile, Israel decided to breach its Gaza ceasefire agreement and proceeded beyond the 53% Yellow Line, capturing 64% of Gaza with the intention of pushing it to 73%.

The UN condemned such a move but could do nothing.

Trump's delayed decision to accept the latest US/Iran ceasefire MOU, seemed to be "buying time" for Israel to secure its 75% Gaza objective!

Meanwhile, domestically in the US, Trump is facing resistance:

1. US Judge temporarily blocks Trump's $1.8 billion "out-of-court" settlement fund to "reward Trump's riot supporters during the 2020 elections

2. The US Court also threw out Trump's bid to change the name of the Kennedy Centre to Trump Kennedy Centre as only Congress has the authority to do so

3. Large protest outside New Jersey ICE Facility while ICE inmates staged a hunger strike inside the ICE Facility in a bid to protest against inhumane treatment

4. New "Gang of 6" Republican senators defected to the Democrats as Trump's Republican support is being reduced over the US/Iran war atrocities.

5. Bessent preparing to seek approval from Congress to put Trump's face on the new US Dollar notes

Technically, the DXY is still on track to try 98.50 while the USD/JPY is finding new resistance @ 159.40 after slipping to hit a low of 159.10 (high 159.65 -Last Line of Defense).

The XAU/USD has recovered almost 100% of its recent decline to 4403.00 and closed @ 4538.00 (range 4491.70-4596.76).

The USD/JPY is expected to start trading lower towards 150.50 in the new month of June.

The XAU/USD strong rebound has put the trek towards 3700.00 on hold as, technically, it was not supposed to trade back above 4500.00.

Will need further monitoring on this pair.

The week ahead is heavy with economic data such as:

1. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Monday)
2. US JOLTs (Tuesday)
3. ADP + S&P Global Services PM (Wednesday)
4. Beige Book + Jobless Claims (Thursday)
5. US Nonfarm Payroll and US Unemployment. (Friday)

Monday will kick off the week with the releases of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI.

Focus will still be on the US/Iran ceasefire MOU and the BOJ today.

Let's see.

29 May 2026.......Market UpdatesAxios, Iran's Tasnim news agency, reported that the US and Iran have agreed to extend a ...
28/05/2026

29 May 2026.......Market Updates

Axios, Iran's Tasnim news agency, reported that the US and Iran have agreed to extend a ceasefire for 60 days to negotiate the sticking point of nuclear containment.

The Straits of Hormuz will be opened for unrestricted shipping passage during that time.

That would also require the US to lift some sanctions on Iranian oil sales.

However, this is now pending Trump's approval.

The S&P rallied while Oil, DXY and the US10Y fell on that news, despite economic data showing that the US is heading into Stagflation (persistent inflation + low growth).

The US Core PCE Price Index registered 3.3% (consensus 3.3%, previous 3.2%) while the US GDP registered 1.6% (consensus 2%, previous 0.5%).

US Jobless Claims registered more claims @ 215K (consensus 211K, previous 210K).

The S&P, however, soared to a another new historical high, closing @ 7,563 (range 7,509-7,569), fueled by AI growth earnings.

Zooming out, the data contrasted the fortunes between Business and Consumers.

Corporate profits growth slowed in Q1 but profitability remains at record highs, while savings rate in April fell to 2.6%, indicating that Wall Street is doing well but Main Street is treading water.

The DXY and the US10Y fell and closed @ 98.99 (range 98.95-99.53) and @ 4.45% (range 4.43%-4.53% respectively).

Technically, the DXY is finally trekking lower towards 98.50.

The XAU/USD recovered from a low of 4366.05 to a high of 4517.00 while the USD/JPY "kissed" its last line of defense @ 159.60 (high 159.65) before falling to a low of 159.11.

The USD/JPY is expected to cap 159.60 to resume its trek lower towards 150.50 from here.

The focus today will be news report on Trump's decision to accept the reported ceasefire extension.

Trump could be delaying his decision to time the S&P, which he has been "manipulating" for his benefits all this while.

There are no major US data schedule for release today other than the US Chicago PMI and Japan's inflation data which will serve as guidance for the next BOJ interest rate decision.

Let's see.

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