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12/12/2024

Dec 12- Wealth Broker Daily Note

US November CPI rose 2.7% YoY and 0.3% MoM, a seven-month high, meeting expectations. "New Fed Wire" suggests inflation is picking up, posing challenges for Trump and the Fed.

Biden calls Trump's tariff plan a "major mistake," arguing it burdens US consumers rather than foreign nations.

Tesla reaches a record high, with Wall Street analysts significantly raising their targets, making Musk the world's first $400 billion person.

Google introduces Gemini 2.0 Flash, an AI model for image generation and multimodal interaction, to compete with OpenAI's offerings.

WTI crude oil for January rose 2.48% to $70.29/bbl; Brent for February rose 1.84% to $73.52/bbl; COMEX gold futures gained 1.29% to $2,753.60/oz. London lead fell over 1%, while nickel and tin rose.

Sources: Wind, Reuters, Jinshi, Sina Finance, Wallstreetcn, Eastmoney
https://www.wbroker.com/anouncement/detail/1611/dec-12-daily-note

06/12/2024

Dec 06- Wealth Broker Daily Note

Altman: 12 launches in 12 days, "super intelligence" to shake 2025. OpenAI's top-tier ChatGPT Pro costs $200/month, includes "smartest" o1 model.

OPEC+ delays oil output increase to April next year, causing oil prices to drop. They plan to end cuts by September 2026.

Macron accepts Barnier's resignation amid calls for his own resignation. Polls show over 60% of French support his resignation.

Nvidia's Blackwell plans US manufacturing; TSMC may gain a key customer.

WTI crude down 0.35% to $68.30/bbl; Brent down 0.30% to $72.09/bbl; COMEX gold down 0.82% to $2,654.30/oz.

Sources: Wind, Reuters, Jinshi, Sina Finance, Wallstreetcn, Eastmoney
https://www.wbroker.com/anouncement/detail/1610/dec-06-daily-note

05/12/2024

Dec 05- Wealth Broker Daily Note

Powell: The economy is stronger than expected; the Fed can be more cautious with rate cuts. Trump can't appoint a shadow Fed chair.

St. Louis Fed Chair: Rate cuts could pause this month due to higher inflation and easing labor market concerns.

US ADP jobs for November were 146,000, the lowest in four months, below expectations. This signals a strong labor market recovery, good news for the Fed.

Trump nominates Peter Navarro as senior trade and manufacturing advisor.

Oil prices fell, with WTI down 2.00% and Brent down 1.78%. Gold rose 0.34%, while aluminum increased over 1% and copper fell 0.3%.

Sources: Wind, Reuters, Jinshi, Sina Finance, Wallstreetcn, Eastmoney
https://www.wbroker.com/anouncement/detail/1607/dec-05-daily-note

21/11/2024

Nov 21- Wealth Broker Daily Note

"Tema" and Trump have been inseparable, with Musk also involved in their recent interactions. Trump and Musk have been closely connected, from Musk's surprise appearance in a Trump-Zelensky call to financial support for Trump's campaign.

The market is watching for two key figures in Trump's cabinet, with hopes for a "safe plan" involving Wash as Treasury Secretary to moderate Trump's tariff policies and maintain fiscal discipline.

Fed's Bowman notes inflation progress has stalled, and financial regulation vice chairman remains despite Trump's departure. If the U.S. labor market stays strong and inflation slow, Bowman may not support further rate cuts in December.

Trump's team is considering a White House position for cryptocurrency policy, with the appointee leading a team and liaising with Congress and regulatory agencies.

WTI December crude oil futures fell 0.75% to $68.87/b, Brent January fell 0.68% to $72.81/b. COMEX gold futures rose 0.81% to $2652.30/oz, while silver fell 1.26% to $30.90/oz. London zinc and lead prices rose over 1%.

Sources: Wind, Reuters, Jinshi, Sina Finance, Wallstreetcn, Eastmoney

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20/11/2024

Nov 20- Wealth Broker Daily Note

CSRC Chairman Wu Qing: Capital markets' positive long-term logic will strengthen. The CSRC will focus on fairness and regulation, updating rules for share reduction, quantitative trading, and short selling.

Kevin Warsh, a potential Treasury Secretary, supports a strong dollar and debt control, differing from Trump's views on free trade and Fed independence.

Putin approves a new nuclear deterrence policy, expanding the scope of potential targets for Russia's nuclear response.

Iran halts production of high-enriched uranium, affecting oil prices. The IAEA reports this move, suggesting Iran may address the nuclear stalemate with the West.

Oil prices: WTI +0.33% at $69.39/bbl; Brent +0.01% at $73.31/bbl. Gold futures up 0.80% at $2635.50/oz; Silver +0.24% at $31.3/oz.

Sources: Wind, Reuters, Jinshi, Sina Finance, Wallstreetcn, Eastmoney

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15/11/2024

Nov 15- Wealth Broker Daily Note

Powell: The economy is robust, the Fed can afford to wait on rate cuts, allowing time to assess Trump's policy impacts. Powell noted that labor market metrics are back to normal levels in line with the Fed's employment goals; inflation is trending towards the 2% target despite fluctuations; interest rate decisions will be data-dependent and not pre-set.

Where will the Fed's rate cuts end? Goldman Sachs suggests around 3.25%-3.5%, 100 basis points higher than the last peak. This is due to increased bond yields and updated economic models, also supported by strong fiscal spending and risk appetite.

U.S. October PPI rose by 2.4% year-over-year, above expectations, with services showing increased stickiness. Service prices increased by 0.3%, driving most of the PPI rise.

AI demand stays strong, with ASML projecting average sales growth of 8%-14% over the next five years. Foxconn anticipates AI servers will make up 50% of its revenue next year.

WTI December crude oil futures rose by 0.27 USD, Brent January crude by 0.28 USD, both by 0.39%. COMEX gold futures fell by 0.59%, silver by 0.38%. London metals saw lead and tin drop by about 2.4%, zinc by about 1.3%.

Sources: Wind, Reuters, Jinshi, Sina Finance, Wallstreetcn, Eastmoney

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07/11/2024

Nov 07 - Wealth Broker Daily Note

Trump wins swing states, GOP takes Senate. He vows to end wars and unite the nation. Harris congratulates him.

If GOP sweeps both houses, the Fed may adjust assumptions in December. Wall Street bets on ECB rate cuts rise.

Nasdaq 100 and Amazon hit records. Tech leaders congratulate Trump. Tesla jumps 15%, boosting Musk's wealth by $20.9 billion.

A-shares see a 9-year high in new accounts, with young investors leading the surge. Alipay and Welicai are top traffic drivers.

Oil and gold futures fall, with WTI down 0.42% and gold down 2.97%.

Sources: Wind, Reuters, Jinshi, Sina Finance, Wallstreetcn, Eastmoney

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06/11/2024

05/11/2024

Nov 05 - Wealth Broker Daily Note

"New Fed News": This week's rate cut is expected, but future challenges loom. Timiraos says a 25bp cut is likely, with the Fed avoiding election focus. Contradictory data and post-election policy uncertainty will complicate rate decisions.

Hedge funds are reducing leverage ahead of the U.S. election, with market liquidity and leverage dropping sharply.

Traders are reversing positions: Rates go net short, VIX net long for the first time since 2018, silver longs hit an 8-year high, and the dollar shifts from net short to net long.

JPMorgan warns that a Trump win could see the Fed pause easing in December due to fiscal deficit expansion and potential inflation, while a Harris win would keep easing on track.

Oil futures rise, with WTI up 2.85% and Brent up 2.71%. Gold futures dip 0.1%, and base metals show mixed results.

Sources: Wind, Reuters, Jinshi, Sina Finance, Wallstreetcn, Eastmoney

01/11/2024

Nov 01 - Wealth Broker Daily Note

Amazon Q3 profits beat estimates, cloud growth accelerates, and after-hours stock jumps 6%. EPS surges 55%, and profit margins hit a new high.

OpenAI launches ChatGPT search feature, challenging Google, with support from major media. It will roll out to all users in coming months.

US core PCE price index rises 2.7% YoY in September, with the largest monthly increase in six months.

Fed and White House advisors warn of a potential drop in October's non-farm jobs data due to strikes and hurricanes.

WTI crude oil for December rises 0.95%, Brent for December up 1.38%, and COMEX gold falls 1.66% in October.

Sources: Wind, Reuters, Jinshi, Sina Finance, Wallstreetcn, Eastmoney

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31/10/2024

Oct 30 - Wealth Broker Daily Note

BYD's Q3 revenue surpassed Tesla for the first time, increasing by 24% to 201.125 billion yuan, with net profit up 11.47% to 11.607 billion yuan.

Major Chinese banks reported revenue and profit growth, with Agricultural Bank leading and建设银行 seeing a 6.8% rise in non-interest income to over 257 billion yuan.

US Q3 GDP growth of 2.8% was below expectations, while core PCE prices rose 2.2%, exceeding forecasts, with consumer spending up 3.7%, the largest increase since early 2023.

The UK's new budget proposes a £40 billion tax hike, the largest since 1970, targeting overseas wealthy individuals and energy companies, with tax increases on capital gains, inheritance, and windfall taxes.

WTI crude oil for December rose 2.08% to $68.61/bbl; Brent for December rose 2.19% to $72.68/bbl. COMEX gold futures gained 0.67% to $2,799.50/oz, while silver fell 1.98% to $33.935/oz. LME aluminum and zinc prices declined.

Sources: Wind, Reuters, Jinshi, Sina Finance, Wallstreetcn, Eastmoney

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29/10/2024

Oct 29 - Wealth Broker Daily Note

Apple has launched a new iMac with the powerful M4 chip and AI features, starting at $1,299, available for pre-order and shipping on November 8th.

Economists are more concerned about Trump's policies post-election, which could lead to inflation. The Fed may need to raise interest rates again.

The US Treasury has reduced its Q4 borrowing estimate due to higher cash reserves. The market is watching for any adjustments in the "quarterly refinancing" guidance.

Volkswagen plans to close German factories, lay off workers, and cut salaries by 10%, marking the first closures in Germany in its 87-year history.

Oil prices fell, with WTI down 6.13% and Brent down 6.09%. Gold rose 0.03%, silver rose 0.21%, and copper fell 0.11%.

Sources: Wind, Reuters, Jinshi, Sina Finance, Wallstreetcn, Eastmoney

Commission-free. Safe, Simple, and Reliable Investing. Join WBroker, we stand by your side and empower you to invest into stocks/ETFs/wealth management portfolios and more.