Learn Trading FX

Learn Trading FX A page where you can see and know about trading in the financial market and updates

Market Update: February 27 2023Oil little changed as Russian supply cuts support pricesOil was little changed in early t...
28/02/2023

Market Update: February 27 2023

Oil little changed as Russian supply cuts support prices

Oil was little changed in early trade on Monday, as Russia's plans to deepen oil supply cuts continued to support prices, while increasing global inflation risks and rising crude inventories in the United States weighed.

Russia plans to cut oil exports from its western ports by up to 25% in March versus February, exceeding its previously announced production cuts of 5% of its output during the month.
Despite oil inventories in the United States at their highest since May 2021, the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting signalling further monetary tightening and a strong rally in the dollar last week, prices edged higher early on Monday before paring some gains.

Oil prices have fallen by about a sixth in the year since Feb. 24, 2022, when Russian troops first marched into Ukraine.

In its latest move, Russia has halted supplies of oil to Poland via the Druzhba pipeline, the chief executive of Polish refiner PKN Orlen said on Saturday, a day after Poland delivered its first Leopard tanks to Ukraine.

Two weeks after the invasion, prices surged to a record high of nearly $128 a barrel over supply concerns, but have since cooled over fears of a global economic slowdown.

Market Update:U.S. dollar strengthens as Fed minutes signal higher ratesThe dollar strengthened on Wednesday after U.S. ...
23/02/2023

Market Update:

U.S. dollar strengthens as Fed minutes signal higher rates

The dollar strengthened on Wednesday after U.S. Federal Reserve meeting minutes showed policymakers are determined to use a slower pace of interest-rate hikes to tame persistently high inflation.

"The Fed minutes were just released indicating that a few officials could have supported a 50-bps hike in the last meeting, though most backed the 25bps outcome. This is certainly supportive of the U.S. dollar, which is slightly stronger now against most other currencies," said Minh Trang, senior FX trader at Silicon Valley Bank in Santa Clara, California. "The theme throughout February has been a bias towards higher rates, and these minutes are consistent with that perspective."

The minutes from the Fed's Jan. 31 to Feb. 1 meeting said most of the officials supported the quarter-point increase because a slower pace "would better allow them to assess the economy's progress" toward reducing inflation to their 2% target. But "a few" participants outright favored a larger 50- bps increase at the meeting, or said they "could have supported" it.

Market Update:Dollar rises to six-week peak as strong U.S. retail sales bolster higher-rates scenarioThe dollar climbed ...
17/02/2023

Market Update:

Dollar rises to six-week peak as strong U.S. retail sales bolster higher-rates scenario

The dollar climbed to a six-week peak against a currency basket after the release of hotter-than-expected U.S. retail sales data on Wednesday, bolstering investors' expectations that the Federal Reserve would keep monetary policy tight for some time to fight stubbornly high inflation.

The greenback also ascended to a fresh six-week peak versus the yen.

Data showed that U.S. retail sales surged 3.0% last month, increasing by the most in nearly two years. The numbers for December were unrevised to show sales dropping 1.1%. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast sales would increase 1.8%, with estimates ranging from 0.5% to 3.0%.

On Tuesday, the U.S. government reported that consumer prices accelerated on a monthly basis in January, rising 0.5%, due in part to higher rental and food costs. The gain matched economists' expectations in a Reuters poll and was well above the 0.1% month-on-month rise in December. Year-on-year prices rose 6.4%, down from 6.5% in December but above economists' expectations of a 6.2% gain.

Market Update:Dollar hits six-week high vs yen; rises from two-week low after U.S. inflation dataThe dollar hit a six-we...
15/02/2023

Market Update:

Dollar hits six-week high vs yen; rises from two-week low after U.S. inflation data

The dollar hit a six-week high against the yen and recovered from a roughly two-week low against a basket of major currencies on Tuesday as data for January showing the smallest annual increase in U.S. consumer prices since October 2021 did not alter market expectations that interest rates will remain elevated for some time.

The greenback initially fell across the board following the inflation report, but regained its footing as U.S. Treasury yields rose as well.

The Labor Department's Consumer Price Index increased 0.5% last month after gaining 0.1% in December, data showed. Monthly inflation was boosted in part by rising gasoline prices, which increased 3.6% in January.

Futures tied to the Fed's policy rate stuck to bets on Tuesday that the U.S. central bank will raise interest rates at least two more times. The futures contracts pricing showed traders are betting heavily that the Fed will raise rates by a quarter of a percentage point at each of its meetings in March and May.

Market Update: (February 14 2023)Euro bulls get a reality check as investors assess rate outlookEuro bulls might have to...
15/02/2023

Market Update: (February 14 2023)

Euro bulls get a reality check as investors assess rate outlook

Euro bulls might have to curb their enthusiasm after the rush to buy the single currency may have left it vulnerable in the short term, particularly given the uncertainty about many global central banks' interest rate plans.

The euro got an extra boost versus the dollar as investors prepared for the possibility that the U.S. Federal Reserve would stop raising rates before the European Central Bank. The Fed is also expected to cut rates sooner than the ECB.

In theory, a currency that boasts higher interest rates tends to attract more investment than a lower-yielding one.

Market Update:Asia FX drifts lower on hawkish Fedspeak, weekly losses on tapInvesting.com -- Most Asian currencies fell ...
20/01/2023

Market Update:

Asia FX drifts lower on hawkish Fedspeak, weekly losses on tap

Investing.com -- Most Asian currencies fell on Friday, and were set to close the week lower following hawkish comments from several Federal Reserve officials, as well as growing concerns over a potential recession this year.

China-exposed currencies were the worst performers this week, even as data released earlier showed that the country’s economy was beginning to pick up after the lifting of most anti-COVID restrictions.

Traders are also positioning for a strong boost to the economy from the week-long Lunar New Year holiday, which begins from January 23.

The Chinese yuan fell 0.1% on Friday and was set to lose 1.3% this week, while the Taiwan dollar shed 0.4% and was also down for the week.

The People’s Bank of China kept its benchmark loan prime rate at historic lows for a fifth straight month on Friday, as it straddles the line between shoring up economic growth and maintaining strength in the yuan.

Rising COVID-19 cases in China have cast doubts over its near-term economic prospects, even after the lifting of most restrictions.

The Japanese yen sank 0.5% on Friday, and was also among the worst-performing Asian currencies this week with a loss of 0.8%. Consumer price index inflation hit a 41-year high in the country in December, data showed earlier in the day.

The yen sank sharply after the Bank of Japan had earlier this week bucked market expectations for a further widening of its yield curve control policy. But the currency recovered a bulk of those losses amid speculation that high inflation may invite a more hawkish stance from the BOJ eventually this year.

Broader Asian currencies fell on Friday after several Federal Reserve officials warned that even though the central bank is likely to slow its pace of interest rate hikes, borrowing costs are likely to remain elevated for longer. The South Korean won fell 0.2%, while the Singapore dollar shed 0.1%.

But gains in the dollar were limited as a slew of data this week showed that the U.S. economy is slowing down in the face of high inflation and tight monetary policy. The dollar index and dollar index futures hovered around a 7-½ month low on Friday, and were set to end the week largely flat.

Markets are now pricing in the potential for a global recession this year, particularly if the Fed keeps hiking interest rates. Such a scenario, while negative for the dollar, is also likely to weigh on Asian currencies.

Market UpdateThe Feds Inflation Fight could make adp a highly attractive buy in 2023Why I Believe That The Labor Market ...
09/01/2023

Market Update

The Feds Inflation Fight could make adp a highly attractive buy in 2023

Why I Believe That The Labor Market Needs To Weaken
First of all, I'm not trying to spread gloom and doom, despite talking a lot about elevated recession risks and my expectations that the market could fall to the low 3,000 range.

Essentially, I believe that the Fed will have to be more aggressive than expected when it comes to achieving its goals of getting inflation down to 2% and preventing it from rising again.

In this case, time is also of the essence. After all, the US Treasury could be facing a $600 billion increase in annual debt servicing costs, as more than $10 trillion in debt is due in 2023 and 2024, according to Lawrence McDonald.

While I obviously might be wrong (after all, it's an outlook), I believe the process might look something like this:

The Fed is feeling tremendous pressure to control inflation. That makes sense as the US economy is consumer-driven. Also, high inflation can quickly turn into lasting above-average inflation once wages and spending habits adjust. That's a no-go!
Hence, I believe that the Fed will not be afraid to do damage to the US economy to achieve its target of lower inflation. This includes hurting housing demand/prices, unemployment, and consumer spending.
Once the Fed pivots (I still believe it will happen in 2023), the economy will slowly adjust to lower rates. Demand will come back. So will inflation.
Given the aforementioned secular factors, I believe we are in a prolonged period of Fed hikes and cuts at above-average rates (versus 2009-2021).
One reason why I keep bringing up the labor market is the impact labor has on inflation. As most may have noticed (across the globe), labor inflation is strong. Despite weakening economic growth, companies are still eagerly looking for employees.

Scientific research in 2019 (conducted in the EU) found a strong relationship between labor inflation and price inflation. Especially in a period or periods of already high inflation. That's a huge risk! Central banks know that.

According to the ECB working paper:

Using country and sector quarterly data over the period 1985Q1-2018Q1 we find a strong link between labor cost and price inflation in the four major economies of the euro area and across the three main sectors.

[...] These results confirm that, under circumstances of predominantly demand shocks, labor cost increases will be passed on to prices. Coming from a period of low inflation, however, this pass-through could be moderate at least until inflation stably reaches a sustained path.

With that said, we're seeing some worrying developments. "Worrying", in this case, refers to how hard it will be for the Fed to get inflation down under these circumstances.

For example, wage inflation hasn't come down a lot. Even worse, it's heating up again. Wage inflation for job switchers is at almost 8%. This shows how eager the market is to hire and how much power job switchers have.

Market Update: January 04 2023Gold nears 7-month peak as recession warnings empower safe havensThe new year has brought ...
04/01/2023

Market Update: January 04 2023

Gold nears 7-month peak as recession warnings empower safe havens

The new year has brought along new ominous warnings of recession that have sent gold to near seven-month peaks of above $1,850 an ounce.

Gold futures’ benchmark February contract on New York’s Comex settled at $1,846.10, up $19.90, or 1.09%. The session peak of $1,856.50 was the highest for Comex gold since June 17, marking a 6-½-month high.

The spot price of gold, which is more closely followed than futures by some traders, was at $1,839.45 an ounce by 13:55 ET (18:55 GMT), up $15.50, or around 0.9%. Spot gold’s intraday peak was $1,850.01 — also the highest since June 17.

Gold rallied after the International Monetary Fund said the world’s three main growth centers — the United States, Europe and China — were all experiencing weaker activity as 2023 began, raising the stakes for a global economic slowdown.

Market Update:Oil rises to over $80/bbl as dollar slumps on slowing inflationNEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil settled over $80 a...
14/12/2022

Market Update:

Oil rises to over $80/bbl as dollar slumps on slowing inflation

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil settled over $80 a barrel on Tuesday and recorded its biggest daily gains in over a month, as investors bought up risk assets after U.S. data pointed to slowing inflation.

The market was also buoyed by concerns about supply disruptions, including the ongoing shutdown of the Canada-to-United States Keystone crude pipeline following a massive leak last week.

Brent crude futures settled at $80.68 per barrel, up $2.69, or 3.5%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled at $75.39 per barrel, up by $2.22, or 3%. Both contracts recorded their biggest daily gains since Nov. 4.

The dollar index plunged on Tuesday after data showed that underlying U.S. consumer price inflation rose less than expected last month, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of its interest rate increases on Wednesday.

A weaker dollar makes oil cheaper for holders of other currencies, which can boost demand.

"Nobody really saw that number coming in below expectations - a possible demand-positive event that put a bid in the market," Mizuho analyst Robert Yawger said.

The focus will now shift to how the U.S. Federal Reserve responds to the CPI report, Yawger added. A pause in interest rate hikes could push prices higher.

However, traders said oil supply concerns have been around for a few days now, suggesting Tuesday's rally may be down to broader 'risk-on' sentiment after the inflation data.

"This is just a dollar-based broad rally," said Eli Tesfaye, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. "Given the sustained drop in the market, any positive news will lift oil, but it remains to be seen if these rallies will hold."

Tuesday's rally could also be due to traders closing out short positions - speculative bets that the price of a commodity will decline - after both benchmarks fell more than 10% last week.

"After being on the receiving end of an absolute drubbing last week, some buying interest and bargain hunting is coming back into the crude complex," said Matt Smith, lead oil analyst at Kpler.

The market had been sinking of late on pessimistic outlooks for demand. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Tuesday trimmed its first-quarter absolute oil demand forecast and said the global economic slowdown is becoming evident.

Chinese leaders reportedly delayed a key economic policy meeting due to surging COVID-19 infections, adding to concerns about demand recovery in the world's biggest crude importer.

TC Energy (NYSE:TRP) Corp's Keystone Pipeline, which ships 620,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Canadian crude to the U.S., remains shut after a spill last week, which could reduce overall U.S. inventories, particularly at the Cushing, Oklahoma, hub, the delivery point for U.S. futures contracts.

U.S. crude inventories were forecast to fall by 3.6 million barrels last week, according to a Reuters poll.

Industry data from the American Petroleum Institute is due at 4:30 p.m. ET (2130 GMT), followed by government data on Wednesday.

Market Update:U.S. Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) MoM The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the p...
13/12/2022

Market Update:

U.S. Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) MoM

The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

Market Update: December 12 2022Asia FX sinks as caution over Fed, CPI inflation, boosts dollarInvesting.com-- Most Asian...
12/12/2022

Market Update: December 12 2022

Asia FX sinks as caution over Fed, CPI inflation, boosts dollar

Investing.com-- Most Asian currencies fell on Monday, while the dollar rose as markets hunkered down ahead of highly awaited signals on U.S. monetary policy from a Federal Reserve meeting and a reading on U.S. consumer inflation.

Most regional units were also nursing losses from last week, amid growing concerns over a potential recession in 2023, which dented demand for risk-driven assets.

The South Korean won and the Malaysian ringgit fell 0.5% each - the most among their regional peers, while the Chinese yuan shed 0.3%.

Optimism over the withdrawal of anti-COVID measures in China was largely offset by fears that a big jump in local infections will delay a broader reopening. Analysts also forecast increased market volatility in the country as it re-emerges from nearly three years of COVID lockdowns.

Still, a Chinese reopening stands to benefit the Asian economies that depend on the country as a trading partner.

The Japanese yen fell 0.2% as data showed producer price inflation in the country rose more than expected, heralding increased pressure on the economy in the coming months.

The yen has also benefited in recent weeks from speculation that high inflation will force the Bank of Japan into eventually changing its ultra-loose stance on monetary policy.

The Indian rupee fell 0.3% ahead of consumer inflation data that is expected to show that price pressures eased further in November. But the Reserve Bank recently signaled that Indian inflation is expected to remain elevated in the near-term.

The dollar strengthened on Monday, as investors positioned for a potentially stronger-than-expected consumer price index (CPI) reading on Tuesday. Data released last week showed that producer price inflation eased less than expected in November, heralding a similar trend in the CPI.

The dollar index and dollar futures both rose 0.3%, and hovered near 105 points

A stronger-than-expected inflation reading could invite more hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on Wednesday.

While the central bank is expected to hike rates by a relatively smaller 50 basis points this week, stronger-than-expected inflation could push it into keeping rates higher for longer than expected.

Strong U.S. data for November ramped up concerns that inflation could remain sticky in the near-term. This invited warnings over a potential U.S. recession in 2023, which dented Asian currencies in recent sessions.

Rising U.S. interest rates were the biggest weight on Asian currencies this year, as the gap between risky and low-risk yields narrowed.

Market Update: December 8 2022Dollar eases against major currencies amid rate, economic concerns; yuan strengthensNEW YO...
12/12/2022

Market Update: December 8 2022

Dollar eases against major currencies amid rate, economic concerns; yuan strengthens

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar weakened slightly against major currencies on Wednesday amid concerns that rising interest rates could push the U.S. economy into recession, while an easing of China's COVID restrictions boosted the yuan.

Some U.S. bank executives are bracing for a worsening U.S. economy next year. Among them, Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) CEO Brian Moynihan told investors at a Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) financial conference that the bank's research shows "negative growth" in the first part of 2023, but the contraction will be "mild."

Some investors have been anticipating the Fed will soon slow its rate tightening pace, but recent upbeat U.S. employment, services and factory data has added to investor uncertainty over the Fed's policy outlook. The Fed is expected to raise rates again when it meets next week.

A U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, was last down 0.2%.

One view is that "recessionary worries are going to drive the Fed to pause. This is why the dollar is weakening here," said Edward Moya at OANDA in New York. "Surging interest rates have the primary driver for dollar strength over the last year."

Against the dollar, the euro was up 0.2% at $1.0488. The euro has risen recently on signs that Europe's economic downturn may be less bad than previously feared.

The dollar was down 0.2% against the Japanese yen.

The U.S. dollar was down 0.1% against the Canadian dollar. The Bank of Canada hiked its benchmark overnight interest rate by 50 basis points to 4.25%, the highest level in almost 15 years, and signaled the tightening campaign was near an end.

In Asia, China's yuan was firmer as the government earlier announced measures that marked a sharp change to its tough zero-COVID policy that has battered its economy and triggered historic protests.

China's national health authority said asymptomatic COVID-19 cases and those with mild symptoms can self-treat while in quarantine at home.

The announcement was the strongest sign so far that China is preparing its people to live with the disease, though analysts say the path to fully reopening the economy will be long and bumpy.

The dollar was last down 0.1% against the offshore Chinese yuan.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin last was down 1.7%.

Address

Singapore
518525

Opening Hours

Monday 08:00 - 18:00
Tuesday 08:00 - 18:00
Wednesday 08:00 - 18:00
Thursday 08:00 - 18:00
Friday 08:00 - 18:00

Website

Alerts

Be the first to know and let us send you an email when Learn Trading FX posts news and promotions. Your email address will not be used for any other purpose, and you can unsubscribe at any time.

Share