Wolfline Capital

Wolfline Capital Modern Investment Banking

Wolfline Capital is a modern investment bank that provides services for the full cycle of securities issues, as well as mergers and acquisitions.

Dear friends,Wolfline Capital is pleased to announce the completion of the global brand redesign and therefore the brand...
14/08/2024

Dear friends,

Wolfline Capital is pleased to announce the completion of the global brand redesign and therefore the brand new website, as well as the establishment of our headquarters in Singapore.

We will be glad to see your business among our clients in terms of capital markets, securities issuance, M&A transactions and everything related to it.

https://wolfline.capital/

Dear Esteemed Clients and Partners,As we bid adieu to 2023, Wolfline Capital extends its sincerest wishes for a prospero...
29/12/2023

Dear Esteemed Clients and Partners,

As we bid adieu to 2023, Wolfline Capital extends its sincerest wishes for a prosperous New Year to all our esteemed followers.

2024 holds immense promise as we embark on an exciting journey of growth and innovation. Our vision for the upcoming year encompasses significant strides in our business expansion alongside the introduction of compelling new content to enrich your experience with us. As we venture into the New Year, our dedication to serving you with distinction remains unwavering.

May the coming year bring you abundance, success, and fulfillment. From all of us at Wolfline Capital, we wish you a joyous and prosperous New Year!

Greetings from Wolfline Capital,The United States may be one step closer to losing its last perfect credit rating after ...
13/11/2023

Greetings from Wolfline Capital,

The United States may be one step closer to losing its last perfect credit rating after ๐Œ๐จ๐จ๐๐ฒโ€™๐ฌ ๐ˆ๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐จ๐ซ๐ฌ ๐’๐ž๐ซ๐ฏ๐ข๐œ๐ž ๐œ๐ก๐š๐ง๐ ๐ž๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฅ๐จ๐จ๐ค ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ง๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐งโ€™๐ฌ ๐๐ž๐›๐ญ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ง๐ž๐ ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐ž ๐จ๐ง ๐…๐ซ๐ข๐๐š๐ฒ when markets closed.

In its latest report, the ratings agency said the U.S. Aaa rating had turned negative due to the country's declining fiscal strength. The group said "with higher interest rates and without effective fiscal policy measures to reduce government spending or increase revenues," deficits would remain large and weaken the country's debt affordability.

Moody's said in a statement that "continued political polarization" in Congress raises the risk that lawmakers might not be able to find common ground on a plan to slow the decline in debt affordability. Moody's said this year's surge in Treasury yields โ€œhas increased pre-existing pressure on US debt affordability."

"Any type of significant policy response that we might be able to see to this declining fiscal strength probably wouldn't happen until 2025 because of the reality of the political calendar next year," William Foster, a senior vice president at Moody's, told Reuters.

While the move does not automatically mean it will downgrade Americaโ€™s creditworthiness, it increases the chances. Even the prospect of a US downgrade could hurt Americansโ€™ investment portfolios, make it even more expensive for them to borrow money, and make it more costly for the government to pay off its debts.

These effects would likely be even more painful if Moodyโ€™s does eventually downgrade the US debt. The nationโ€™s diminished fiscal strength, undone by extreme partisanship in Washington, was a key driver of the action, according to a statement from Moodyโ€™s.
US government officials pushed back on the move, citing the liquidity of US Treasuries, among other factors.

โ€œWe disagree with the shift to a negative outlook,โ€ Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Wally Adeyemo said in a statement. โ€œThe American economy remains strong, and Treasury securities are the worldโ€™s preeminent safe and liquid asset.โ€

Moodyโ€™s is the only one of the three major credit rating agencies to assign the United States an outstanding rating of AAA, which it has maintained since 1917.

Greetings from Wolfline Capital,๐˜๐ข๐ž๐ฅ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง ๐”.๐’. ๐ ๐จ๐ฏ๐ž๐ซ๐ง๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐๐ž๐›๐ญ ๐ฐ๐ž๐ซ๐ž ๐ฆ๐จ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐ฌ๐ฅ๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ญ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐ก๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ž๐ซ ๐“๐ก๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฌ๐๐š๐ฒ morning after data p...
09/11/2023

Greetings from Wolfline Capital,

๐˜๐ข๐ž๐ฅ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง ๐”.๐’. ๐ ๐จ๐ฏ๐ž๐ซ๐ง๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐๐ž๐›๐ญ ๐ฐ๐ž๐ซ๐ž ๐ฆ๐จ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐ฌ๐ฅ๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ญ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐ก๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ž๐ซ ๐“๐ก๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฌ๐๐š๐ฒ morning after data pointed to a still-sturdy labor market.

Data released on Thursday showed that initial jobless claims dipped to 217,000 last week, remaining at low levels typical for a strong labor market. Economists had expected new claims to total 220,000.

At 1 p.m. Eastern time, the U.S. Treasury will auction $24 billion of 30-year bonds, with investors hoping the sale is as well-received by the market as the previous day's $40 billion 10-year sale.

Then, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to make an appearance on an International Monetary Fund panel at 2 p.m. One of the main questions for the market will be whether he pushes back against the recent easing of financial conditions.

Markets are pricing in a 90.5% probability that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged between 5.25%-5.5% on Dec. 13, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike to a range of 5.5%-5.75% by January is seen at 17.8%.

Strong activity was seen during the overnight session, with volumes more than twice the recent trend, according to BMO Capital Markets strategists Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery. "We see that the long bond garnered an impressive amount of activity, taking an above-average 7% market share," they wrote in a note. "In outright terms, 30s saw overnight volumes at 2.7 times the typical levels, a dynamic that implies, if nothing else, there will be elevated investor interest paid to this afternoon's refunding auction. Whether that translates into strong participation and robust demand is another question entirely."

Greetings from Wolfline Capital,๐ˆ๐ง๐Ÿ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐จ ๐Ÿ๐ข๐ฑ๐ž๐-๐ข๐ง๐œ๐จ๐ฆ๐ž ๐„๐“๐…๐ฌ ๐ก๐š๐ฏ๐ž ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ฎ๐ž๐ ๐๐ž๐ฌ๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐ž ๐ฆ๐š๐ฃ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐›๐จ๐ง๐๐ฌ over the las...
24/10/2023

Greetings from Wolfline Capital,

๐ˆ๐ง๐Ÿ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐จ ๐Ÿ๐ข๐ฑ๐ž๐-๐ข๐ง๐œ๐จ๐ฆ๐ž ๐„๐“๐…๐ฌ ๐ก๐š๐ฏ๐ž ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ฎ๐ž๐ ๐๐ž๐ฌ๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐ž ๐ฆ๐š๐ฃ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐›๐จ๐ง๐๐ฌ over the last couple of months, as investors are bracing up for higher interest rates era to linger.

Fixed income ETFs listed across the US and Europe attracted a record $235bn of net inflows in the first three quarters of this year, according to data compiled by BlackRock, up from $169bn in the same period last year and $222bn in the first three quarters of 2021.

According to the Financial Times, the majority of fund inflows on both sides of the Atlantic have been into sovereign debt ETFs with high credit ratings. US Treasury ETFs pulled in just in excess of $100bn in the year to October 9. The most liquid and popular bond ETF, the iShares 20+ Treasury ETF (TLT) has had $17.9 billion inflows so far this year. Assets under management have swelled to $41 billion as well. The biggest driver of flows is due to institutions, pension funds, and family offices that have a mandate regarding fixed income exposure.

However, the relentless rise of yields has pushed prices down and left investors who own bonds with long-dated maturities nursing heavy losses. An iShares ETF, which owns Treasuries with a maturity date of 20 years or longer, is down by 12.9% this year.

โ€œBecause short-term rates have been much higher than longer-term rates it makes sense that investors have focused on one-to-three month ETFs,โ€ Rohan Reddy, director of research at fund manager Global X told Financial Times. The trend reflects a broader surge of capital into money market funds this year from investors seeking an alternative to cash.

Further, there is no clear indication when the tide will turn given expectations of high supply in the coming months and ambiguity about the economy, inflation, and Fed.

To read more, follow the link:

Relentless rise of yields attracts new inflows โ€” but leaves long-dated bondholders nursing losses

Greetings from Wolfline Capital,๐ˆ๐ง๐Ÿ๐ฅ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง has been full of surprises throughout its three-year climb in the United State...
23/10/2023

Greetings from Wolfline Capital,

๐ˆ๐ง๐Ÿ๐ฅ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง has been full of surprises throughout its three-year climb in the United States, ๐ฒ๐ž๐ญ ๐จ๐ง๐ž ๐œ๐ฅ๐ž๐š๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ง๐  ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ฏ๐ž๐ซ๐š๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐š๐ญ๐ก ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ž๐ฆ๐›๐ฅ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ญ๐ซ๐ž๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ๐ž๐ ๐›๐ž๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ง ๐Ÿ๐Ÿ—๐Ÿ”๐Ÿ” ๐š๐ง๐ ๐Ÿ๐Ÿ—๐Ÿ–๐Ÿ.

US borrowing costs have climbed above 5pc for the first time since 2007 amid growing fears that the countryโ€™s central bank will have to keep interest rates higher for longer to tame inflation. The Federal Reserve controls short-term interest rates, which ripple through the economy via market-based rates like Treasury yields and borrowing costs on longer-term debt like mortgages and company bonds. But unlike the gradual, deliberate changes to rates enacted by the Fed, moves in longer-term market rates, like the 10-year Treasury yield, are less predictable and subject to many factors. These moves are very important to the economy and can alter the behavior of consumers and companies faced with suddenly higher borrowing costs.

Yields on 10-year Treasuries crossed the psychologically important threshold on Monday morning, hitting 5.018pc. The steep rise in the 10-year yield in recent months has captured the attention of investors, economists, and policymakers. This โ€œsudden, rapid increaseโ€ has shaken faith in the continued resilience of the economy, said economists at the rating agency Moodyโ€™s, threatening โ€œto knock the U.S. economic expansion off course.โ€

The 10-year Treasury yield also influences important consumer rates: The average 30-year mortgage has recently approached 8 percent and credit card rates are now above 20 percent. As the 10-year yield has risen, the rally that propelled the S&P 500 higher earlier in the year has stalled, with the benchmark stock market index ending the week down 2.4 percent.

A chart of the year-over-year change in the consumer price index shows headline inflation is taking a โ€œfairly similarโ€ track to the one it took more than four decades ago, according to Alejandra Grindal, chief economist, and London Stockton, research analyst, at Sarasota, Fla.โ€“based Ned Davis Research.

Although the absolute levels of the CPI year-on-year changes of the two periods are not quite the same, the trends depict apparent similarities. Inflation rose well above 10% in the 1970s and 1980s, whereas this time around in June 2022, it peaked at 9.1%. However, in both periods inflation subsequently dropped and was followed by troubling developments in the Middle East.

Throughout the 60-ies the US economy was stimulated by increased government spending and tax cuts, which led to accelerating inflation by the decade's end. In the mid-1970s, a powerful cartel of oil producers imposed an oil embargo on the US and a handful of other countries, and then the U.S. embargoed oil from Iran. The oil prices soared and propelled a second round of inflation later that decade and into the early 1980s.

In 2022, stretched supply chains caused by the lasting effects of the pandemic, abundant stimulus payments injected in the US economy alongside a widespread energy crisis due to the war in Ukraine kicked inflation into high gear. Although inflation has subsided since then, it is still at a stubbornly elevated level, which many analysts believe will continue into 2024. Last week, flared-up tensions in the Middle East sent oil prices climbing 2% in one day as Iranโ€™s foreign minister called for an oil embargo on Israel.

Greetings from Wolfline Capital,A number of ๐”.๐’. ๐›๐š๐ง๐ค๐ฌ ๐ฌ๐š๐ฐ ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ฎ๐ž๐ ๐ฉ๐š๐ข๐ง ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ซ๐ ๐ช๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐ญ๐ž๐ซ ๐จ๐ง ๐จ๐ฏ๐ž๐ซ๐๐ฎ๐ž ๐œ๐จ๐ฆ๐ฆ๐ž๐ซ๐œ๐ข๐š๐ฅ ๐ซ๐ž๐š...
20/10/2023

Greetings from Wolfline Capital,

A number of ๐”.๐’. ๐›๐š๐ง๐ค๐ฌ ๐ฌ๐š๐ฐ ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ฎ๐ž๐ ๐ฉ๐š๐ข๐ง ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ซ๐ ๐ช๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐ญ๐ž๐ซ ๐จ๐ง ๐จ๐ฏ๐ž๐ซ๐๐ฎ๐ž ๐œ๐จ๐ฆ๐ฆ๐ž๐ซ๐œ๐ข๐š๐ฅ ๐ซ๐ž๐š๐ฅ ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐š๐ญ๐ž (๐‚๐‘๐„) ๐ฅ๐จ๐š๐ง๐ฌ in their portfolios, as stress in the sector persists.

Building owners who borrowed money to finance their properties are being squeezed by high interest rates and vacant offices as workers opt to work from home. Weak demand for offices could trigger a wave of borrowers to default on their loans and put pressure on banks and other lenders, which are hoping to avoid selling loans at significant discounts.

As a result, banks recorded continued provisions for credit losses and charge-offs from the previous quarter, driven by their non-performing (NPL), or delinquent, CRE loans.

"This is going to go on for at least a year, where NPLs continue to rise, followed by charge-offs - it's going to be really ugly," Rebel Cole, a finance professor at Florida Atlantic University told Reuters. โ€œI'm sure that banks are trying to avoid selling their worst properties because that's going to force them to take a larger write-off, and because every property that's sold becomes a comparable sale for the appraisers that value the properties, " he added.

In its third-quarter earnings release, Morgan Stanley noted it set aside $134 million for credit losses. Similar to the $161 million it set aside in the second quarter, the bank noted this was due to "deteriorating conditions in the commercial real estate sector."

Bank of America on Tuesday reported its non-performing loans, or those with at least 90 days of payments past due, increased to nearly $5 billion in the third quarter from $4.27 billion in the second quarter, due mainly to its CRE portfolio.

Wells Fargo saw an increase in net charge-offs on its CRE portfolio compared to previous quarters. On Oct. 13, the bank reported $93 million in net CRE loan charge-offs, compared with $79 million in the second quarter and $17 million in the first.

Other banks' earnings in the past week showed similar challenges facing CRE holdings. On Tuesday, Goldman Sachs disclosed that it had reduced its exposure to office-related CRE holdings by roughly 50% this year.

Borrowers have struggled to refinance their CRE loans as property values have declined and interest costs have risen. According to real estate data provider Trepp, some $20 billion of office commercial mortgage-backed securities, which bundle together individual loans, mature in 2023.

Regulators have kept a close eye on banks' CRE risk. While bigger banks such as JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have relatively less exposure to CRE, smaller regional banks have greater exposure, which has posed challenges, according to research from JPMorgan and Citigroup.

Greetings from Wolfline Capital๐๐š๐ง๐ค ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐€๐ฆ๐ž๐ซ๐ข๐œ๐š ๐ซ๐ž๐ฉ๐จ๐ซ๐ญ๐ž๐ ๐ฎ๐ง๐ซ๐ž๐š๐ฅ๐ข๐ณ๐ž๐ ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ ๐จ๐Ÿ $๐Ÿ๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ.๐Ÿ” ๐›๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ž๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐ž๐ฌ ๐ก๐ž๐ฅ๐ ๐ฎ๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐ฅ ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ...
18/10/2023

Greetings from Wolfline Capital

๐๐š๐ง๐ค ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐€๐ฆ๐ž๐ซ๐ข๐œ๐š ๐ซ๐ž๐ฉ๐จ๐ซ๐ญ๐ž๐ ๐ฎ๐ง๐ซ๐ž๐š๐ฅ๐ข๐ณ๐ž๐ ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ ๐จ๐Ÿ $๐Ÿ๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ.๐Ÿ” ๐›๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ž๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐ž๐ฌ ๐ก๐ž๐ฅ๐ ๐ฎ๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐ฅ ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ซ๐ ๐ช๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐ญ๐ž๐ซ, growing from nearly $106 billion in paper losses in the second quarter.

The second-biggest U.S. lender had about $603 billion in held-to-maturity securities, it said in a filing on Tuesday, shrinking from $614 billion in the second quarter.

Unrealized losses have come under closer scrutiny by investors since March. At the time, Silicon Valley Bank sold a portfolio of its holdings at a sharp loss, precipitating its collapse and fueling the worst industry turmoil since the 2008 financial crisis.

Analysts say it is highly unlikely that Bank of America would sell the securities at a loss.

โ€œAll of these are unrealized losses are on government-guaranteed securities,โ€ Bank of Americaโ€™s chief financial officer, Alastair Borthwick, told reporters on a conference call discussing third-quarter earnings. โ€œBecause weโ€™re holding them to maturity, we will anticipate that weโ€™ll have zero losses over time.โ€

And yet the holdings of low-yielding assets have also constrained the second-largest U.S. lenderโ€™s ability to make higher profit from deploying its cash in money markets or other assets with greater returns.

However, the company earned $7.8 billion, up 10% from $7.1 billion a year earlier. The earnings amounted to 90 cents per share. That beat the 83 cents expected by analysts polled by FactSet. Revenue rose 3% to $25.2 billion, beating expectations for $25.1 billion
JPMorgan Chase had unrealized losses of $40 billion in its HTM portfolio in the third quarter.

Citigroup did not disclose paper losses on its portfolio for the third quarter. They stood at $24 billion at the end of the second quarter.
Banks park securities under either available-for-sale (AFS) or held-to-maturity securities. AFS securities are carried at fair value and subject to mark-to-market losses. If banks have the intention to hold debt securities until maturity they keep them in held to maturity portfolio.

U.S. banks could be grappling with at least $650 billion of unrealized losses in their securities portfolios, according to an estimate from Moody's after prospects of interest rates staying higher for longer led to a bond market rout in the third quarter.

Greetings from Wolfline Capital,๐”.๐’. ๐“๐ซ๐ž๐š๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฒ ๐ฒ๐ข๐ž๐ฅ๐๐ฌ ๐ซ๐จ๐ฌ๐ž ๐จ๐ง ๐“๐ฎ๐ž๐ฌ๐๐š๐ฒ ๐š๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐จ๐ซ๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ž๐ ๐จ๐ฏ๐ž๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฅ๐จ๐จ๐ค ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ซ...
17/10/2023

Greetings from Wolfline Capital,

๐”.๐’. ๐“๐ซ๐ž๐š๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฒ ๐ฒ๐ข๐ž๐ฅ๐๐ฌ ๐ซ๐จ๐ฌ๐ž ๐จ๐ง ๐“๐ฎ๐ž๐ฌ๐๐š๐ฒ ๐š๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐จ๐ซ๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ž๐ ๐จ๐ฏ๐ž๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฅ๐จ๐จ๐ค ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ซ๐š๐ญ๐ž๐ฌ and the economy following stronger-than-expected economic data.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury jumped more than 9 basis points to 4.805%, while the 2-year Treasury yield rose nearly 6 basis points to 5.152%.

The move in yields came as retail sales figures for September came in well above Wall Streetโ€™s expectations. The data showed a 0.7% increase for the month, topping the 0.3% estimate according to economists polled by Dow Jones.

Investors also continued to weigh the outlook for the economy and the Fed rate-hiking campaign. Several policymakers have hinted in recent weeks that they do not believe rates need to go any higher, despite the central bank saying it expects one further rate hike this year.

Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said last week that economic data suggested to him that no further rate hikes are necessary and keeping them at their current level would allow their impact to fully unfold.

Various other Fed officials are due to speak this week, including central bank Chairman Jerome Powell. The Fedโ€™s next interest rate decision is expected on Nov. 1, and markets are pricing in an around 90% chance that rates will be left unchanged then, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Greetings from Wolfline Capital.๐๐ซ๐จ๐Ÿ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐›๐ข๐ ๐ ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ ๐”๐’ ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ž๐ซ ๐ฅ๐ž๐ง๐๐ž๐ซ๐ฌ ๐š๐ซ๐ž ๐ฅ๐ข๐ค๐ž๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฌ๐ž๐ž ๐š ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ž ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ซ๐ ๐ช๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐ญ๐ž...
13/10/2023

Greetings from Wolfline Capital.

๐๐ซ๐จ๐Ÿ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐›๐ข๐ ๐ ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ ๐”๐’ ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ž๐ซ ๐ฅ๐ž๐ง๐๐ž๐ซ๐ฌ ๐š๐ซ๐ž ๐ฅ๐ข๐ค๐ž๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฌ๐ž๐ž ๐š ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ž ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ซ๐ ๐ช๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐ญ๐ž๐ซ, marking a stark contrast with investment banks who are still struggling with a deal-making slump, say analysts.

The nationโ€™s largest lender JP Morgan Chase set to release its earnings today, is forecasted to lead this financial trend with a predicted 25% surge in earnings per share (EPS), according to LSEG estimates.

Conversely, investment banking giants are set to witness significant declines in EPS. Goldman Sachs and Citigroup are poised to shoulder the biggest losses at 35% and 26% respectively. Higher interest rates for longer timespans have impacted everything from banksโ€™ funding and lending capabilities to borrower repayment abilities, security losses, and capital requirements.

A robust US job market that showed a significant increase of 336,000 positions in September alone increases the likelihood of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Although the largest lender is positioned well to handle these increases, persistent high borrowing costs could potentially further cool down investment banking activity.

Despite the renewed optimism in the market, investment banking activity remains depressed. According to data from Dealogic, global investment banking fees are down almost 17% in the third quarter from the same period a year earlier to $15.2 billion.

Unrealized losses from securities will show a "significant increase" to as much as $670 billion across the industry in the third quarter, estimated Richard Ramsden, a banking analyst at Goldman Sachs. That compares with $558 billion in the second quarter, according to data from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.

For instance, Bank of America had more than $100 billion of unrealized losses on its securities portfolio that it aims to own until maturity, which has weighed on its shares. Its stock is the worst performer among the top six U.S. lenders, falling nearly 18% so far this year.

The KBW index of bank shares, which includes regional lenders, has dropped almost 23% in 2023.

Greetings from Wolfline ะกapital,The ๐”๐’ ๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐จ๐ฆ๐ฒ ๐š๐๐๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ”,๐ŸŽ๐ŸŽ๐ŸŽ ๐ฃ๐จ๐›๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐’๐ž๐ฉ๐ญ๐ž๐ฆ๐›๐ž๐ซ โ€” ๐š ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐ซ๐ข๐ฌ๐ข๐ง๐  ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ž ๐ญ๐ก๐š๐ญ ๐ซ๐š๐ข๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ซ๐ข๐ฌ๐ค...
06/10/2023

Greetings from Wolfline ะกapital,

The ๐”๐’ ๐ž๐œ๐จ๐ง๐จ๐ฆ๐ฒ ๐š๐๐๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ”,๐ŸŽ๐ŸŽ๐ŸŽ ๐ฃ๐จ๐›๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐’๐ž๐ฉ๐ญ๐ž๐ฆ๐›๐ž๐ซ โ€” ๐š ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐ซ๐ข๐ฌ๐ข๐ง๐  ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ž ๐ญ๐ก๐š๐ญ ๐ซ๐š๐ข๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ซ๐ข๐ฌ๐ค ๐ญ๐ก๐š๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐…๐ž๐๐ž๐ซ๐š๐ฅ ๐‘๐ž๐ฌ๐ž๐ซ๐ฏ๐ž ๐ฐ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐Ÿ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ญ๐ก๐ž๐ซ ๐ญ๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ญ๐ž๐ง ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ซ๐š๐ญ๐ž๐ฌ to tamp down inflation.

The blowout number was nearly double the 170,000 jobs economists had expected, and also sharply higher than an upwardly revised 227,000 jobs added in August, according to fresh data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday.

The report also showed that wages increases were smaller than expected and the unemployment held steady at 3.8% โ€” slightly above the 3.7% forecast and even with the jobless rate in August, which had been up slightly from 3.5% in July.

In morning trading, the Dow fell nearly 100 points while Treasury yields soared as bets increased that the Fed will further tighten interest rates later this year and will be slower to loosen them in 2024. But Wall Streetโ€™s main indexes reversed course and rose on Friday following a boost from megacap stocks.

โ€œThis will keep the Fed very guarded and very much concerned about upside risk,โ€ Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust Corp, told Bloomberg, โ€œbecause this plays into their concerns about a reacceleration in the economy.โ€

Markets were spooked earlier this week when the Labor Department released its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary, which showed job openings increased to 9.61 million in August โ€” up from 8.9 million in July.

Greetings from Wolfline Capital,A global central bank test lab, known as the ๐๐š๐ง๐ค ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ ๐ˆ๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ซ๐ง๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐š๐ฅ ๐’๐ž๐ญ๐ญ๐ฅ๐ž๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐ฌ (๐๐ˆ๐’), ๐ก...
04/10/2023

Greetings from Wolfline Capital,

A global central bank test lab, known as the ๐๐š๐ง๐ค ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ ๐ˆ๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ซ๐ง๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐š๐ฅ ๐’๐ž๐ญ๐ญ๐ฅ๐ž๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐ฌ (๐๐ˆ๐’), ๐ก๐š๐ฌ ๐ฎ๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ข๐ฅ๐ž๐ ๐š ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐ญ๐จ๐ญ๐ฒ๐ฉ๐ž ๐›๐ข๐ญ๐œ๐จ๐ข๐ง ๐ฆ๐จ๐ง๐ข๐ญ๐จ๐ซ๐ข๐ง๐  ๐ฌ๐ฒ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ž๐ฆ ๐œ๐š๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ž๐ ๐€๐ญ๐ฅ๐š๐ฌ. The system aims to provide authorities with a clearer understanding of how, when, and where the cryptocurrency is being used. The project began over five years ago at the Dutch central bank, but its importance has become more evident in recent times due to the chaotic collapses that have occurred within the crypto industry.

Atlas is a โ€œproof of conceptโ€ platform that aggregates data from publicly available on-chain crypto ledgers, as well as data reported by select exchanges and users. This information provides a rough picture of cryptocurrency activity, but due to the anonymous nature of crypto wallets, it may not be entirely precise in terms of location.
Preliminary analysis of the data collected by the platform indicates substantial cross-border flows in economic terms, although the distribution across geographical regions is uneven. This insight into cross-border crypto flows is particularly relevant for central banks in the context of cross-border payments, economic analysis, and balance of payments statistics.

The BIS's prototype produces dashboards that display information such as the conversion of bitcoin into U.S. dollars in specific regions at particular times. These dashboards can offer valuable insights into the adoption and relative importance of crypto markets.

Central banks globally are increasingly concerned about the risks associated with the decentralized nature of cryptocurrencies. The collapses of widely-used stablecoin pair Luna and TerraUSD, as well as the FTX platform, have exacerbated these concerns.

The BIS emphasizes the need for central banks to gain firsthand knowledge of cryptocurrencies and decentralized finance (DeFi) to fully understand the risks and opportunities they present. The dashboards developed by the BIS will now be tested by a group of central banks to gather feedback and further enhancements.

In the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrencies, the balance between innovation and regulation has always been delicate. With the unveiling of Project Atlas by major central banks, this balance is once again under scrutiny. While the initiative promises oversight and stability, it also raises questions about privacy, autonomy, and the very essence of decentralized finance.

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