17/01/2022
WILL PROPERTY PRICES ALWAYS GO UP?
“The rich. You know why they’re so odd? Because they can afford to be.” –Alexander Knox (Robert Wuhl) Batman
Hi all, this is Allan.
Today’s question is whether property prices will always go up. The short answer is yes. The long answer is more complicated.
Some may remember that about 30 to 40 years ago, a 20,000 sqft detached house in Nassim road will cost about S$80,000 to S$90,000. Today, it cost more than S$20,000,000. We also remember how flats used to be less than S$10,000. Today, even flats at Punggol are selling at S$1,000,000.
Let us discuss the factors leading to this result.
First, Singapore is a small city state. We have 5.45 million people staying in Singapore. Our land size is 728.6 km². If we convert this into population density, our population density is 8,305/km² and we are ranked 3rd in the world, after Macau and Monaco.
Under these factors, we can safely assume that demand for land, houses will be high in Singapore.
Second, due to factors like Covid, our supply of materials, labour are disrupted. This has a severe impact on housing prices. New flats cannot be built and our kids are eagerly waiting for these homes to get married and have kids. Not everyone can produce kids in a small space. The supply disruption, will drive prices up.
Third, based on the Political White Paper in 2013, our target population is 6.9 million. The main reason is we need 30,000 new permanent residents and 25,000 naturalised citizens each year are needed to sustain Singapore's population due to the falling birth rates in Singapore.
With 6.9 million people, if we divide that by an average 4 people per household, we need 1,725,000 flats/houses. In 2020, we have 1,370,000 households.
In addition to the above, Singapore housing has no substitutes. It is either HDB, condominium or landed. We cannot stay in a tent in East Coast Park, or drive an RV around Woodlands, like Australians.
With all the factors above, it is safe to say unless we have an all-out war, where many people run off to other countries, the housing prices of Singapore will continue to rise.
This is the reason I say property investment in Singapore is a lazy man’s investment because we do not have to worry much about it if it will go up. Even if it rises 3% to 4%/ year, the quantum is high, and it still translates to a lot of money for many.
That is not including the fact that unlike a paper asset, we can:
a) Rent it out;
b) Let our parents stay;
c) Let a relative who has fallen to hard times to stay;
d) Leave it empty;
e) Use it as a vacation home. I contemplated buying a resort condominium in Pasir Ris so my kids can travel to the east to have fun on weekends;
f) Though it is illegal, many people are using it for Airbnb;
g) Let all your girlfriends and boyfriends stay, or use it when you meet your girlfriends and boyfriends (don’t flame me, I’m just listing what we can use our properties for);
h) Sell it;
i) Pass it to your kids as part of inter-generational wealth. It is not a difficult asset to manage.
This is the complicated part.
If you compare HDB home prices then and now:
a) 1970s: 4-room: Avg size - 807 sq ft; Avg price - S$20,000 (New sale)
b) 1980s: 4-room: Avg size - 807 sq ft; Avg price - S$80,000 (New sale)
c) 1990s: 4-room: Avg size - 1,022 sq ft; Avg price - S$170,000 (New sale); S$270,000 (Resale)
d) 2000s: 4-room: Avg size - 968 sq ft; Avg price - S$180,000 (New sale); S$255,000 (Resale)
e) 2010s: 4-room: Avg size - 968 sq ft; Avg price - S$376,300 (New sale); S$435,000 (Resale)
From other websites, in 2021, average price of new sale 4-room HDB is about S$402,375 and 4-room HDB resale average price is about S$533,500.
Calculating the percentage changes in each 10 years:
a) From 1970 to 1980: 300% increase (New sale)
b) From 1980 to 1990: 112.5% increase (New sale)
c) From 1990 to 2000: 5.88% increase (New sale); -5.55% increase (Resale)
d) From 2000 to 2010: 109.05% increase (New sale); 70.58% increase (Resale)
e) From 2010 to 2021: 6.92% increase (New sale); 22.64% (Resale)
Using 4-room HDB as an example, you notice:
a) The increase each year is not uniform;
b) Resale prices fell between 1990 to 2000;
c) The increase went from 300%, 112.5% to a more “normal” 6.92% and 22.64%.
This throws up questions regarding this theory that housing prices will always rise:
a) Price rising from S$20,000 to S$80,000 is possible because the quantum is small, but as the pricing rise higher and higher, will we see double digit growth forever? If HDB prices are S$1,000,000, a 22.64% increase is S$226,400 increase in a year.
b) Will the wages of our citizens be able to support high property price growth in future? Real wages stagnated from 2000 to 2010. Even for median income, between 2000 to 2010, the median growth was only 11% in 10 years. If use a simple average, our median wage only grew 1.1% every year from 2000 to 2010.
The other point is, though agents will sell a dream of high capital gains with high property price increases, if we manage to rent out our homes, the returns are better.
Example, if I purchased a flat for S$300,000 and the average price increase was 4% over 10 years, at the end of the 10th year, I can sell the flat for S$444,073. However, if I rent out the flat for a profit of S$1,000/ month, S$12,000/ year, my returns will rise from 4% to 7.4%.
Thank you for letting me share my thoughts and opinions. I will stop here and continue in a few days.
Leave me comments, so we can learn together.
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