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Aravana Capital Management, cayman islands, Moscow (2026)

07/10/2022

Macro view of the current week

1️⃣ Micron expects sales of PCs and smartphones to fall

Micron expects sales in the PC segment this year to fall by 10%, smartphones - by 5%. Interest in technology will decline due to too high inflation and changing consumer habits. In order to meet the new conditions, the company will reduce the cost plan in the direction of chip production. Weak forecasts led to a drop in Micron quotes the day before, the paper is at annual lows and can be even cheaper.

At the moment, it is not clear what it is: the end of the boom in the sale of gadgets or a temporary pause.

2️⃣The largest IPO in recent times
In the US, the largest IPO in the last couple of months took place.

Ivanhoe Electric Inc, which develops mining projects in the United States, has entered the stock exchange. As part of the initial offering, the issuer raised $169 million - this, of course, is not an IPO of Affirm, but it is not an exit of MotorSports Games either.

The company now receives the main profit from the technology business, and mining areas are only being developed and calculated.

The history of trading in securities is still uninformative - just a few days, the first session closed at $10.80 with a high of $12.04 and a low of $10.10.

07/10/2022

⚡️Portugal sees an unprecedented increase in investment after the resumption of the program "Golden Visa of Portugal"
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🔹 The annual growth of investments under the program "Residence by investment" amounted to 33%;

🔹 According to the results of six months, the amount of investments of program participants reached €316.2 million;

🔹 In June, foreigners invested a record €78 million in local assets: this is 44% higher than in May this year and 54% than last year;

🔹 A total of 155 Portugal Golden Visas were issued in June, of which 126 were based on real estate investment, 28 were for capital transfer, venture capital or science / culture investments, and only one visa was issued for business and job creation.
⠀
Interestingly, even after the territorial restrictions imposed by the Portuguese government (Lisbon, Porto, densely populated coastal areas and the Algarve ceased to participate in the program), investors still choose to purchase real estate.

➡️ To get expert advice, as well as learn about other countries where the residence permit program is available, write to us in direct.

07/10/2022

Macro view of the current week

1️⃣ Buffett is confident in Occidental Petroleum

Warren Buffett's investment fund Berkshire Hathaway has acquired 9.6 million shares of oil company Occidental Petroleum (ticker: OXY). Now the share of Berkshire Hathaway is estimated at 16.3%. Buffett believes that the company is one of the beneficiaries of rising oil prices and has a clean generation outlook.

The long-term horizon for the security is positive, the consensus forecast is an increase of 35-40% over 12 months.

2️⃣ US banks successfully passed stress tests

American banks look resilient and can continue lending even in a recession - these are the conclusions of the stress tests of the US Federal Reserve. Theoretically, with unemployment rising to 10% and a global recession with a 3.5% drop in GDP, the cumulative loss of 34 major US banks will be at the level of $600 billion.

The aggregate Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio could be 9.7%. This is twice the Fed's minimum requirement.

Do not rush to conclusions. Reality, as practice shows, is always more colorful than expectations.

07/10/2022

🔥 A new citizenship project has been launched in Grenada - InterContinental Grenada Resort.

📍The complex has 150 apartments and 30 villas managed by a world brand. The project is located on the beach of La Sagesse - a secluded vacation on the picturesque southeast coast of Grenada.

📍Infrastructure: restaurants and bars, spa and swimming pool, fitness center, conference rooms, business center
📍The cost of a share for obtaining citizenship is from $220,000.

📩For more information about the project and the benefits of Grenada citizenship, send us an application in direct.

07/10/2022

Macro view of the current week

1️⃣Apple will benefit from technology

Apple shares may be among the leaders of growth after the US stock market completes the fall and returns to acquisitions. Apple's strengths are in the introduction of new features and products that will positively affect the price of securities in the long term.

The company goes further, offering financial services, such as the Pay Later feature, which becomes an addition to the familiar Wallet. If the giant comes with its technology to the world of online finance, the potential for growth in the share price will be enormous.

Since the beginning of the year, Apple shares have fallen by 26%. However, this is unlikely to frighten fans of the company - faith in progress is too great.

2️⃣Fedex will work on the investment image

Fedex will work on its investment image and make efforts to increase long-term attractiveness for investors.

After the deal with D.E.Shaw, the company seemed to be renewed: it underwent a reshuffle in the composition of top management, a decision was made to cut costs in order to reduce the impact of rising US inflation, and the amount of dividends was increased.

As a result, the company's shares added 14% during the session, which was the highest daily gain in 36 years.

It is not certain that Fedex will quickly catch up with competitors - UPS, for example, has gone far ahead - but it may well strengthen its own position.

07/10/2022

🇲🇪Montenegro citizenship for investment in real estate

Montenegro is one of the few countries in Europe that has a citizenship by investment program. In addition, Montenegro is one of the main contenders for EU membership in 2025. If the country joins the agreement, then investors will receive all the rights of citizens of the EU countries.

🥇What does the passport of Montenegro give now?
▪️Visa-free travel to 124 countries, including the Schengen area
▪️Ability to apply for a US E-2 business visa (Russians cannot participate in this program directly)
▪️Return on investment and favorable tax regime
▪️Passport is received by the whole family of the investor

❗️Citizenship conditions:
1️⃣Returnable investments from €250.000 in northern projects or from €450.000 in southern projects of the country + non-refundable contributions of €200.000 to state funds of Montenegro
2️⃣No requirements for living in the country, no need to pass exams for knowledge of the language and history of Montenegro
3️⃣Term of keeping the object in the property for the preservation of citizenship: 5 years

➡️ To get expert advice, as well as learn about other countries where the residence permit program is available on the basis of financial independence, write to us in direct

07/10/2022

1️⃣Coinbase is waiting for the "crypto winter" and reduces the staff

The US cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase announced the reduction of staff by 1.1 thousand employees, which is approximately 18% of the total staff. In this way, the company reacts to changing external conditions and makes efforts to maintain business stability.

Coinbase is generally not too positive about the prospects and expects a “crypto winter” that will stretch for a long time. In addition, the company notes that the expansion of the state has recently had a negative impact on the efficiency of the business.

2️⃣ The Fed raised the rate by 75 bp. first time since 1994

The US Federal Reserve was forced to respond to growing inflationary pressures. At the meeting in June, the interest rate was increased by 75 basis points to a range of 1.50-1.75% per annum.

Initially, it was assumed that the indicator would rise by 50 bp, the Fed itself gave such signals. However, that was after May inflation reflected a surge to 8.6% y/y.
In 2022, the US Federal Reserve managed to raise interest rates twice: in March (+25 bp) and poppy (+50 bp). It is expected that at each of the scheduled meetings this year, the interest rate will be increased.

07/10/2022

Is it possible to get a residence permit for EU countries now? Yes, if it is a residence permit for financial independence, for example, Italy or France.

❓Why draw up:
• gives the right to live in Italy or France
• the possibility of visa-free travel within the EU
• the right to open accounts in European banks

💶Requirements:
• have real estate owned or rented in the country of residence permit, as well as a foreign bank account
• show passive income (dividends, interest, rental of real estate) in the amount established by the program:
🇮🇹 31 thousand euros per year for each family member
🇫🇷 25 thousand euros per year for adult family members, for children on the recommendation of a lawyer

🕑Terms: 1-2 months collection of documents, 1 month review

➡️ To get expert advice, as well as learn about other EU countries where a residence permit program is available on the basis of financial independence, write to us in direct.

15/06/2022

Macro overviewview of the current week

1️⃣Crypto industry lays off employees

2TM, the parent company of Mercado Bitcoin, Brazil's largest cryptocurrency exchange, has laid off more than 80 employees. “The changing global financial landscape, rising interest rates and inflation have had a major impact on technology companies,” 2TM said in a statement.

According to the LinkedIn page, Mercado Bitcoin Market has over 580 employees, while 2TM has over 80.

2TM's announcement comes a week after Latin American cryptocurrency exchange Bitso, Mercado Bitcoin's main competitor in Brazil, laid off 80 employees, citing a "long-term business strategy."
Also last week, Argentina-based cryptocurrency exchange Buenbit laid off 45% of its staff — roughly 80 employees — due to a “global overhaul” of the tech industry.

2TM became the second crypto unicorn in Latin America after raising a total of $250M in 2021 at a $2.2B valuation.

2️⃣Saudi Arabia continues to raise the price of its oil
The kingdom raised oil prices for its biggest market, Asia, more than expected as the region's major economies eased coronavirus restrictions. State-owned Saudi Aramco has raised $2.10 a barrel in its flagship Arab Light crude. The total increase from June will be $6.50 above the benchmark used. According to a survey of processors and traders conducted by Bloomberg, the market was expecting an increase of $1.50.

Aramco has also increased the content of all grades for northwestern Europe and the Mediterranean. Prices for US customers remain unchanged for the second month in a row.
OPEC+ agreed last Thursday to accelerate production increases. The 23-nation cartel, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, said it would add 648,000 bpd to the market in July and August, up about 50% from recent months.

15/06/2022

🔥3 ways to obtain a residence permit in Austria

There are several ways to obtain an Austrian residence permit. They depend on the purpose of the move and have their own characteristics:

* Residence permit for persons with financial independence;
* red-white-red card for entrepreneurs;
* red-white-red card for key specialists.

Benefits of a residence permit in Austria:
✅ The prospect of obtaining permanent residence in 5 years and citizenship in 7 years
✅ Visa-free entry to all countries of the Schengen area
✅ Quick extension of residence permit
✅ Affordable real estate prices. Average house price in Vienna: €340.000
✅ The possibility of obtaining a residence permit for the applicant's family
✅ Country with the highest standard of living: 14th in GDP per capita and 10th in the prosperity index

📞For a free consultation on residence permit, permanent residence and second citizenship programs, please contact us in direct.

15/06/2022

Macro overviewview of the current week

1️⃣Coinbase’s $51 billion drop in capitalization is not only due to the crypto winter

Coinbase Global Inc. went from one of the most anticipated debuts in the stock market to one of the most spectacular crashes in a year. Coinbase shares fell to an all-time low in May, and even after some recovery, are still down 80% from their IPO price. Bitcoin fell only 53% over the same period.

As cryptocurrency prices have fallen over the past six months, trading volumes on most exchanges have also declined. But bad business practices also played a role. Coinbase's new non-fungible token marketplace took months to launch and then failed.

The company fell short of analysts' earnings forecasts for the first three months of the year and is targeting a consistent decline in trading volume this quarter, in part because it lost ground to competitors.

Coinbase's market share has fallen to 4.8% of monthly crypto trading volume from 7.1% in November. Users have gone to competitors such as DigiFinex and FTX US. Coinbase is expected to lose about $1.4 billion this year. The financial performance of competitors is better, and competition from other exchanges is intensifying.

2️⃣Oil falls despite China's economic recovery efforts

West Texas Intermediate fell below $110 a barrel. The fall came after China announced a broad package of measures to support businesses, including subsidies for car purchases. Oil fell along with other commodities such as copper and iron ore.

As the coronavirus lockdown in China drags on, banks are lowering growth forecasts for the economy of the biggest oil importer. UBS Group AG cut its forecast for China's gross domestic product to 3% from 4.2%, while JPMorgan Chase & Co. lowered the forecast to 3.7% from 4.3%.

07/06/2022

📌Why do you need to have real estate in your investment portfolio?

Let's take a look at the performance of the three main instruments for investing in currencies over the past 6 months: the stock market, cryptocurrencies and real estate.

1️⃣Stock market:
• S&P 500 down 16%
• NASDAQ - 28% drop
• SSE (Shanghai) – down 14%

2️⃣Cryptocurrencies:
• BTC - 56% drop
• LUNA - 97% drop in the last 24 hours
• Index of capitalization of the entire cryptocurrency market - a drop of 46%

3️⃣Real estate:
• Cottage in a country hotel in England - price increase was 7%, rental yield - 4%
• Apartment in Phuket - price increase was 0%, rental yield - 3.5%
• Apartment on the secondary market in Dubai Marina - price increase was 8%, rental yield - 2%
• Apartment in a resort in Brazil - price increase was 2%, rental yield - 3.5%

❗️In the context of the approaching global economic crisis, the most reliable way to protect capital from inflation and other market risks is to create a diversified portfolio that includes properties in different countries and in different sectors.

➡️To get expert advice on real estate investment, leave a request in direct messages.

Aravana Capital Management

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