Birling Capital Advisors LLC

02/09/2026

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02/09/2026

02/09/2026

September 2, 2026

Global Market Square

The Dow Jones Rises 295.03 Points, Snapping A Three-Day Slide as Treasury Yields Cool


The U.S. and European stock markets ended mixed Wednesday as U.S. Treasury yields paused after their recent climb to multiyear highs, letting the major averages snap a three-day losing streak. In contrast, European equities remained under pressure from rising bond yields, elevated energy prices, and renewed tensions between the United States and Iran.

The improvement in market sentiment remained measured. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield touched a high of 4.818% intraday — a level not seen since November 2023 — before easing back to roughly unchanged by the close. Brent crude remained close to $95 per barrel. Both levels reinforced concerns that higher financing and energy costs could complicate the inflation outlook and influence the Federal Reserve's September 16–17 policy decision.

U.S. Markets
The S&P 500 advanced 0.46% to 7,666.60, the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.45% to close at 26,217.83, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 295.07 points, or 0.56%, to end at 53,061.95. Gains in Nvidia and Johnson & Johnson shares boosted the 30-stock index.

Stocks had been pressured lately by elevated bond yields as traders worried about the impact of rising oil prices on inflation, and Wednesday's advance broke that three-session losing streak. Yields in the U.K., Germany, and France also rose, while Japan's 10-year government bond yield traded near multi-decade highs.

Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, pointed to oil as the key driver behind the rally, noting the market remains rangebound during a seasonally weak period and that easing crude prices gave stocks room to rebound. He expects the S&P 500 to bottom out near 7,500 eventually.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures
settled up almost 1% at $91.01 per barrel, while Brent crude futures closed at $95.63 after a similar advance. The gains came as the U.S. launched additional military strikes on Iran, raising concern the conflict could escalate further. Hatfield said a lasting peace deal looks unlikely, but he expects oil to trend lower over the next six months as non-OPEC production ramps up and alternative routes develop.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that more than 17 million barrels of oil moved through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday — the highest volume since the Iran conflict began in February.

European Markets
European equities closed lower as rising sovereign bond yields, higher energy costs, and escalating tensions in the Middle East weighed on investor sentiment.

The Stoxx Europe 600 declined approximately 0.3% to 645.42, its lowest level in about a month. European markets remained particularly sensitive to rising oil prices due to the region's dependence on imported energy. Government borrowing costs also rose across the continent, with Germany's 10-year bond yield reaching its highest level since 2011.

Retail shares led the declines, while selected banking and technology companies provided limited support. The divergence between Wall Street and Europe reflected the stronger influence of AI-related earnings on U.S. equities and Europe's greater exposure to energy-price and sovereign-debt concerns.

Energy Markets
Oil prices stabilized near elevated levels after advancing sharply during the previous sessions. Brent crude settled near $95 per barrel as investors continued to assess the consequences of renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities and potential disruptions to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Although the pause in the oil rally offered some relief to financial markets, energy-driven inflation remained an important risk.

Diesel prices were hovering near their April highs, raising the possibility of increased transportation, manufacturing, and distribution costs throughout the economy.

The inflationary consequences would become more significant if crude and refined-product prices remained elevated for an extended period. For the Federal Reserve, sustained energy price pressures could make it more difficult to balance slower employment growth with inflation that remains above its target.

Economic & Policy Outlook
The August ADP National Employment Report showed that private employers added 38,000 jobs, below expectations and down from an upwardly revised 46,000 in July. It was the weakest monthly increase since January.
Hiring was concentrated in a limited number of industries.

Education and health services added 45,000 positions, leisure and hospitality gained 16,000, and construction added 12,000. Those increases were partially offset by losses in manufacturing, professional and business services, and information. Base-pay growth for job-stayers remained at 3.0% from one year earlier.

The report suggested that employment growth continued to lose momentum, although it was unlikely to determine the Federal Reserve’s September decision on its own. Investors now turn to Friday’s employment report and next week’s inflation data for a clearer assessment of the economy.

Following Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole address, futures markets raised the implied probability of a September interest-rate increase to approximately two-thirds. Warsh emphasized that economic growth remained solid, labor-market conditions were stable, and inflation continued to exceed the Fed’s objective.

Navigating September’s Seasonal Headwinds
September has historically produced the weakest average performance and the lowest probability of a positive return among U.S. equity months. The seasonal pattern can become more pronounced during midterm election years, when political uncertainty often weighs on investor sentiment.

However, seasonality alone does not determine market direction. The most damaging declines in September and October have generally occurred alongside deteriorating economic conditions, weakening earnings, or broader financial stress. Those conditions do not currently define the market environment.

Corporate earnings remain strong, AI-related capital investment continues to expand, credit spreads remain contained, and estimates point toward continued U.S. economic growth during the third quarter. These fundamentals should provide support even as elevated yields, energy prices, and geopolitical tensions drive volatility.

The Final Word: Strong Fundamentals Confront a More Demanding Macro Environment

Wednesday’s rebound demonstrated that investors remain willing to buy market weakness when corporate results confirm durable earnings growth.

Dell’s extraordinary performance offered further evidence that the AI investment cycle continues to broaden and strengthen.
However, the market’s path will increasingly depend on whether Treasury yields and energy prices stabilize.

September’s seasonal weakness deserves attention, but it is not sufficient on its own to end the broader market uptrend. The more consequential test will be whether inflation permits the Federal Reserve to remain patient—or forces policymakers to tighten monetary policy into a labor market that is already losing momentum.

Economic Update:
•ADP Employment Change: fell to 38,000, down from 46,000 last month, a change of -17.39%.
•ADP Median Pay YoY: is unchanged at 4.40%, compared to 4.40% last month.
•US Crude Oil Stocks WoW: fell to 95,000, down from 4.405 million last week, a change of -97.84%.

Eurozone Summary:
•Stoxx 600: closed at 645.91, down 1.55 points or 0.24%.
•FTSE 100: closed at 10,756.45, down 32.83 points or 0.30%.
•DAX Index: closed at 25,839.33, down 130.78 points or 0.50%.

Wall Street Summary:
•Dow Jones Industrial Average: closed at 53,061.95, up 295.07 points or 0.56%
•S&P 500: closed at 7,666.60, up 35.13 points or 0.46%
•Nasdaq Composite: closed at 26,217.82, up 118.05 points or 0.45%
•Birling Capital Puerto Rico Stock Index: closed at 4,990.50, down 23.58 points or 0.47%
•Birling Capital U.S. Bank Index: closed at 10,294.21, down 27.95 points or 0.27%
•U.S. Treasury 10-year note: closed at 4.79%.
•U.S. Treasury 2-year note: closed at 4.39%.

01/09/2026

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01/09/2026

September 1, 2026

Global Market Square

Dow Jones falls 419.02 points as oil surges on new U.S. strikes against Iran

The U.S. and European stock markets traded lower Tuesday as inflation concerns and surging oil prices pushed bond yields higher on both sides of the Atlantic, raising fresh questions about whether the Federal Reserve will tighten policy at its meeting later this month.

The selloff came as U.S. Central Command confirmed American forces struck Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targets in Iran, escalating a conflict that had already rattled markets after a tanker was hit by projectiles while transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Monday. President Trump had signaled a forceful response to Iran's recent attacks on U.S. military installations in the region, and Tuesday's strikes appeared to follow through on that warning.

U.S. Markets
Wall Street opened September under significant pressure as the combination of military escalation in the Middle East and a renewed climb in Treasury yields weighed on risk appetite. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 419.02 points, the S&P 500 gave back 0.71%, while the Nasdaq Composite led losses among the major averages, falling 1.03%.

Oil prices jumped sharply on the news of U.S. strikes against Iranian targets. WTI crude gained 5.2% to close at $90.22 per barrel, while Brent crude added 4.6% to close at $94.65, extending Monday's advance following the tanker attack in the Strait of Hormuz.

Treasury yields continued their global ascent. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 4.79%, its highest level since January 2025, moving in tandem with sovereign yields abroad — Japan's 10-year yield reached its highest point since August 1996, and Germany's benchmark yield touched a 2011 high. Investors are increasingly concerned that persistently elevated oil prices could stoke inflation and complicate the Fed's rate path heading into its meeting in two weeks.

Market strategists noted that equities remain vulnerable to sharp moves in the bond market, and that this dynamic is likely to persist in the near term. Despite the inflation worries, the underlying economic data has not yet shifted enough to clearly justify a rate hike at the September meeting — fed funds futures currently price in roughly a two-thirds probability of a hike, though sentiment could shift further with Friday's August nonfarm payrolls report still to come.

Economic reports released Tuesday offered a somewhat more balanced picture. The July Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed 7.27 million job openings, up modestly from a downwardly revised 7.18 million in June. Hiring declined to approximately 5.1 million, while layoffs remained historically contained. The figures portrayed a labor market that remains stable but increasingly characterized by modest hiring and relatively limited worker turnover.

Manufacturing remained firmly in expansion territory but lost some momentum. The August ISM Manufacturing PMI registered 54.6, down from 55.6 in July and below consensus expectations near 55.2. Importantly, manufacturing has now expanded for eight consecutive months.
Beneath the headline, new orders declined to 53.7 from 56.7, production remained strong at 58.3, and manufacturing employment eased to 51.2. Of greater importance for monetary policy, the Prices Index remained elevated at 71.1, underscoring that inflationary pressures within the industrial economy have not disappeared.

Taken together, the data suggested an economy that continues to expand but with some moderation in manufacturing and labor demand. This environment provides the Federal Reserve with little urgency to ease policy while inflation remains above target.

European Markets
European markets traded lower Tuesday as the global bond selloff, higher energy prices, and renewed geopolitical tensions weighed on investor sentiment.
Government bond yields moved sharply higher across the region, with German, French, and British sovereign yields approaching levels not seen in years. Rising yields placed particular pressure on rate-sensitive and growth-oriented shares, while energy companies benefited from the advance in crude-oil prices.

The European session also reflected growing concern that another sustained increase in energy costs could complicate the region's inflation outlook. Europe remains particularly sensitive to energy price shocks, making developments in the Strait of Hormuz an increasingly important variable for economic growth, corporate margins, and central bank policy.

The combination of elevated sovereign yields and higher energy costs left European investors balancing improving economic activity against the possibility that monetary conditions could remain restrictive for longer than previously anticipated.

Energy Markets
Oil prices surged Tuesday after U.S. Central Command confirmed American forces struck Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targets in Iran, sharply escalating a conflict that had already unsettled energy markets following Monday's attack on a tanker transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The strikes intensified concerns about the security of one of the world's most strategically important energy corridors.

WTI crude gained 5.2% to close at $90.22 per barrel, while Brent crude added 4.6% to close at $94.65, extending the advance that began with Monday's tanker attack.
The immediate issue for markets extends beyond the direct effect on crude prices. A sustained increase in energy costs could filter through to transportation, manufacturing, logistics, and consumer prices, creating another source of inflation at a time when central banks are already struggling to return inflation sustainably toward their targets.

For financial markets, the Strait of Hormuz — and now direct U.S.-Iran military engagement — represents both an acute geopolitical risk and an increasingly important macroeconomic variable heading into the Fed's meeting in two weeks.

Economic & Policy Outlook
The global rise in government bond yields has emerged as one of the most important market developments entering the final four months of 2026.
Several forces are contributing simultaneously: persistent government fiscal deficits, substantial sovereign and corporate debt issuance, elevated inflation uncertainty, higher energy prices, expectations for additional monetary tightening by some central banks, and greater term premiums demanded by investors for holding longer-duration securities.

We continue to believe the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is likely to fluctuate within a broad 4.5%-5.0% range. At these levels, fixed income offers substantially higher yields than investors experienced during much of the previous decade. However, persistently elevated yields could limit near-term capital appreciation for investment-grade bonds.

For equities, the implications are more nuanced. Higher discount rates represent a valuation headwind, particularly for expensive growth companies. Yet higher yields alone do not necessarily end an equity bull market when economic activity remains positive and corporate earnings continue expanding.

The more significant risk would emerge if rising oil prices and bond yields simultaneously weaken economic growth while keeping inflation elevated. Such a combination would leave central banks with considerably less flexibility to respond to slower economic activity.

The Final Word: September Begins With a New Test for the Bull Market
September opened with three interconnected risks: higher bond yields, higher oil prices, and renewed geopolitical uncertainty.

Yet the fundamental economic picture remains more resilient than Tuesday’s risk-off tone might suggest. Manufacturing expanded for an eighth consecutive month, job openings remained above 7 million, layoffs stayed contained, and corporate earnings continue to provide an important foundation for equity valuations.
The principal question is whether the global bond selloff represents another temporary repricing or the beginning of a sustained move toward structurally higher long-term interest rates.

Our base case remains that the 10-year Treasury yield will trade primarily within the 4.5%–5.0% range and that corporate earnings growth should continue to provide support for equities. We therefore maintain a constructive outlook on stocks relative to bonds, emphasizing U.S. large- and mid-cap companies alongside selective exposure to emerging markets.

But September begins with a clear reminder: the bull market must now prove that earnings growth can outrun the combined pressure of higher interest rates, higher energy costs, and an increasingly complicated geopolitical landscape.

GDPNow:
•The GDPNow for the third quarter of 2026 was updated on September 1, 2026, to 4.80%, up from 4.60%, a 4.35% increase.

Economic Update:
•US Job Openings: Total Nonfarm rose to 7.271 million, up from 7.182 million last month, a change of 1.24%.
•US ISM Manufacturing PMI: fell to 54.60, down from 55.60 last month, a change of -1.80%.
•US Retail Gas Price: rose to $4.218, up from $4.182 last week, a 0.86% increase.
•US Construction Spending MoM: fell to -0.47%, compared to -0.03% last month.
•US Consumer Credit Outstanding MoM: rose to $14.17B, up from -$1.081B last month.

Eurozone Summary:
•Stoxx 600: closed at 647.46, down 3.64 points or 0.56%.
•FTSE 100: closed at 10,789.28, down 34.98 points or 0.32%.
•DAX Index: closed at 25,970.11, down 288.00 points or 1.10%.

Wall Street Summary:
•Dow Jones Industrial Average: closed at 52,766.88, down 419.02 points or 0.79%
•S&P 500: closed at 7,631.47, down 54.67 points or 0.71%
•Nasdaq Composite: closed at 26,099.77, down 271.11 points or 1.03%
•Birling Capital Puerto Rico Stock Index: closed at 5,014.08, down 40.26 points or 0.80%
•Birling Capital U.S. Bank Index: closed at 10,322.16, down 66.21 points or 0.64%
•U.S. Treasury 10-year note: closed at 4.79%.
•U.S. Treasury 2-year note: closed at 4.39%.

01/09/2026

Global Market Square - September 1, 2026 - https://mailchi.mp/birlingcapital/global-market-square-september-1-2026

31/08/2026

August 31, 2026

Global Market Square

Wall Street Retreats as U.S.-Iran Hostilities Return, but August Ends with Broad Gains

The U.S. and European stock markets closed lower Monday as a renewed military confrontation between the United States and Iran lifted crude oil prices, pushed longer-term Treasury yields higher, and injected fresh geopolitical risk into the final trading session of August. Wall Street absorbed the escalation relatively calmly, however, with losses contained and all three major U.S. averages finishing August higher.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell roughly 370 points, while the S&P 500 declined 0.33% and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.12%. The retreat followed confirmation that U.S. forces struck Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island over the weekend, prompting retaliatory attacks by Iran against U.S. bases in Jordan. The renewed exchange represented the first publicly acknowledged U.S.-Iran strikes since late July.

Despite Monday’s decline, August reinforced the underlying resilience of U.S. equities. The Dow completed its fifth consecutive winning month, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recorded their first monthly gains since May. Technology leadership, resilient corporate earnings, and continued investment in artificial intelligence helped markets withstand a month characterized by elevated Treasury yields, geopolitical uncertainty, and volatile energy prices.

U.S. Markets
Wall Street ended August on the defensive as investors weighed the potential economic consequences of renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities. The S&P 500 fell 0.33%, the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.12%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped approximately 370 points, or 0.7%, with Goldman Sachs and Alphabet among the notable drags.

Energy markets immediately reflected the renewed geopolitical risk. WTI crude jumped nearly 3% to approximately $85.76 per barrel, while Brent climbed almost 3% to around $90.49. The move raised concerns that a prolonged conflict could increase transportation and production costs, complicate the inflation outlook, and potentially influence the Federal Reserve’s policy calculus.

Longer-term Treasury yields also moved higher alongside crude oil, creating an additional headwind for equities. Nevertheless, the market reaction remained relatively orderly, suggesting investors continued to distinguish between a contained geopolitical escalation and a broader disruption capable of materially altering the global economic outlook.

The more important story was the market’s performance over the full month. Despite considerable volatility, the Dow gained more than 1% in August, marking its fifth straight monthly advance, while the S&P 500 rose approximately 2% and the Nasdaq advanced about 3%. Both the Dow and the S&P 500 also reached record highs in August.

The month’s performance underscored a recurring theme for investors: geopolitical shocks and elevated interest rates can generate short-term volatility, but corporate earnings, economic resilience, and the ongoing AI-driven capital investment cycle remain powerful counterweights. With August complete, attention now turns to whether September can sustain that momentum as investors confront renewed tensions in the Middle East, higher oil prices, persistent inflation risks, and the Federal Reserve’s evolving policy outlook.

European Markets
European markets closed lower Monday as escalating tensions between the United States and Iran pushed oil prices higher and renewed inflation concerns across the region. The Stoxx 600 fell 0.62%, while Germany’s DAX declined 1.17%, with German equities additionally pressured by stronger-than-expected inflation data and rising expectations that the European Central Bank may need to maintain a tighter monetary-policy stance. Energy shares were among the relative outperformers as crude-oil prices advanced.
London markets were closed Monday, August 31, for the U.K. Summer Bank Holiday. Accordingly, the FTSE 100 did not trade, and its 10,824.26 level represents Friday, August 28’s close rather than a Monday closing price.

Energy Markets
Energy markets became the most immediate transmission mechanism for the weekend’s geopolitical escalation.
Crude-oil prices advanced following the exchange between the United States and Iran, with investors once again adding a geopolitical risk premium to energy prices.

The central issue is not simply the military escalation itself but the security and accessibility of the Strait of Hormuz. Any renewed mining activity, disruption to commercial shipping, or sustained reduction in tanker traffic could push the geopolitical premium in crude prices
significantly higher and quickly feed into global inflation expectations.

For financial markets, developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz therefore remain as important as the military confrontation itself. A contained conflict could allow the oil price premium to moderate, while any material disruption to energy flows would substantially alter the economic and market calculus.

Economic & Policy Outlook
The focus now shifts toward a consequential week for the U.S. labor market and Federal Reserve policy.
Investors will receive several important employment indicators, beginning Tuesday with the July JOLTS job openings report, followed by ADP private payroll data on Wednesday. Friday will bring the August nonfarm-payrolls and unemployment report, with markets expecting payrolls to have increased by approximately 65,000 and the unemployment rate to edge higher to 4.2%.

These releases have assumed greater importance following Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish comments Friday. Futures markets moved to price in roughly a 65% probability of an interest-rate increase at the September meeting, compared with approximately 35% before his remarks.

The equation facing the Federal Reserve has also become more complicated. With inflation remaining above the Fed’s target and Warsh characterizing labor-market conditions as consistent with full employment, policymakers are likely to concentrate increasingly on the inflation side of their dual mandate.
At the same time, another sustained increase in energy prices could slow—or potentially reverse—recent progress toward price stability.

The August employment and inflation reports will therefore carry unusual weight ahead of the September 16 meeting. A September rate increase is not a foregone conclusion. Still, the Fed appears to have limited tolerance for meaningful upside inflation surprises and will likely require sustained evidence of moderating core price pressures to remain on hold.

The Final Word: Market Behavior in August 2026

Wall Street closed out August with broad-based gains, led by growth. The Nasdaq Composite outpaced its peers with a 3.93% monthly advance to 26,370.88, followed by the S&P 500's 2.62% climb to 7,686.14 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average's steadier 1.34% rise to 53,185.90. All three major U.S. benchmarks now carry double-digit year-to-date returns — the Nasdaq at +13.46%, the S&P 500 at +12.28%, and the Dow at +10.66% — a sign that the summer rally has held through the final week of the month.

Puerto Rico's market told a more mixed
story. The Birling Puerto Rico Stock Index pulled back 2.01% for the month, closing at 5,054.34 after a stretch of relentless gains, but it remains the standout performer in the group with a 27.47% year-to-date return — more than double any of the mainland indices. The pullback looks like a pause rather than a reversal given the scale of the run so far this year. The Birling US Bank Index kept its steady pace, adding 1.26% to close at 10,388.37, bringing its year-to-date gain to 13.49%.

Fixed income was quiet by comparison. The 10-year Treasury yield held exactly flat at 4.75%, unchanged from July, while the 2-year yield edged up 1.40% to 4.34%. The flat long end alongside a firmer short end suggests the market isn't pricing in near-term rate relief, even as equities keep grinding higher — a divergence worth watching heading into September.

Bottom line: August was a risk-on month for US equities, with growth leading value and Puerto Rico's index taking a breather after an exceptional year-to-date run. Treasury markets stayed anchored, signaling the bond market isn't yet convinced the Fed's hawkish stance is loosening.

Economic Update:
•US Crude Oil Production: rose to 425.15M, up from 419.02M last month, a change of 1.46%.
•Japan Consumer Confidence Index: rose to 34.90, up from 33.80 last month.
•Japan Housing Starts YoY: fell to 8.19%, down from 18.56% last month.

Eurozone Summary:
•Stoxx 600: closed at 651.10, down 4.06 points or 0.62%.
•FTSE 100: London Stock Exchange closed for the Summer Bank Holiday; previous close 10,824.26.
•DAX Index: closed at 26,258.11, down 311.88 points or 1.17%.

Wall Street Summary:
•Dow Jones Industrial Average: closed at 53,185.90, down 374.09 points or 0.70%
•S&P 500: closed at 7,686.14, down 25.62 points or 0.33%
•Nasdaq Composite: closed at 26,370.88, down 31.53 points or 0.12%
•Birling Capital Puerto Rico Stock Index: closed at 5,054.34, up 40.53 points or 0.81%
•Birling Capital U.S. Bank Index: closed at 10,388.37, up 73.06 points or 0.71%
•U.S. Treasury 10-year note: closed at 4.75%.
•U.S. Treasury 2-year note: closed at 4.34%.

31/08/2026

Global Market Square - August 31, 2026 - https://mailchi.mp/birlingcapital/global-market-square-august-31-2026