TMS Brokers

TMS Brokers We're a trusted european regulated Forex Broker,
bringing you our innovative trading platform - TMS C

We're a trusted european regulated Forex Broker,
bringing you our innovative trading platform - TMS Trader!

The Fed will try to suppress inflation at the expense of economic growth and economic slowdown.China - coping with econo...
31/08/2022

The Fed will try to suppress inflation at the expense of economic growth and economic slowdown.
China - coping with economic problems, and problems with the real estate market.
Gas storage facilities in Europe are 80% full. Gazprom has suspended gas supplies to France.
Germany CPI - 7.9%
France CPI - 5.8%
10:00 - Polish GDP
14:15 - ADP report ahead of labor market report
2 factors:
1. The Iranian press reports on a tentative agreement with the US.
2. The Russian press reports that the supply cut was not discussed at the OPEC meeting

FOREX
EURUSD – Wait for Friday's NFPs, a sideways trend with an indication of the USD strengthening

Indices: Weaker Condition, Further Drops Possible

COMMODITIES
OILWTI - bearish takeover on D1
NATGAS - consolidation, time plays against growth
SILVER – Bad state, if $18 support broken, direction to $16, short positions have an advantage over long positions
SOYA – No resistance break, 10% drop in 2 days, support at $1,400
COFFEE - demand advantage, 3 days ago tested resistance at $241, currently a temporary correction - direction to LONG

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Retail sales in Spain fell 0.5% in JulyInflation Germany CPI 14:00 7.8% forecastYesterday, at the end of the session, th...
30/08/2022

Retail sales in Spain fell 0.5% in July
Inflation Germany CPI 14:00 7.8% forecast

Yesterday, at the end of the session, there was a rally in both the indices and the dollar.
Technically, it doesn't change anything. So far, there are no signs of a change in trend.

FOREX
EURUSD- Below 0.99 we have support at 0.85. Looking at the MN1-3 candle, the downtrend is a long-term bearish candle
GBPUSD - 1.17 support that will attract you to open positions
USDJPY – We are building a short-term consolidation with resistance, if USD continues to strengthen break resistance. The closest resistance for 24 years.
USDPLN- EURUSD hostage, if major currency pair breaks below lows - USDPLN 4.80 and likely test 5 levels, Poland risk of new inflation spikes
EURPLN- 4.60-4.80 expected sideways trend. Long-term optimist against PLN. External circumstances do not allow the zloty to strengthen, internal factors are neutral

COMMODITIES
OIL- Heading north around $105, demand consistently outperformed, growth likely, multiple factors support this: June-Aug downswing, room for a bounce
NATGAS - Supply factors starting to dictate slightly - European gas storage facilities are filled to record levels - Shortage protection - This shows that the impact in winter will be less
COPPER- Technical correction in the form of a move back to support zone, target 325, perhaps July low - SHORT with SL above 380 can be considered,

STOCKS:
KGHM- Strongly decreasing movement due to the situation of copper, from the maximum of May until today it falls 50%. With copper falls, it is difficult to forecast a rebound in the company

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Powell's speech last Friday had an impact on the markets and it is difficult not to get the impression that the markets ...
29/08/2022

Powell's speech last Friday had an impact on the markets and it is difficult not to get the impression that the markets have not responded. The dollar and indices soared sharply. He didn't say anything new, but the pronunciation was Hawkish.

FOREX
EURUSD – Looking at the chart, it doesn't bode well for the current exchange rate trend. 0.9950-70 sell levels, SL 1.0110; open PT.
GBPUSD – Wednesday was disappointing, Thursday's approach to lower levels, and Friday and finally 1.14 (another low 1.03 - Soros low).
USDJPY - has other highs

RAW MATERIALS
OIL - John Hervey suggested a possible agreement with Iran, currently in the process of consolidation. Range from 86-96 USD.
NATGAS – Probable breakout of $10 and rise.
GOLD: at most you can stay at this level, there is no strength to continue winning
SILVER - a week of climbing, negative reading of Powell's words, and a sharp drop.

STOCK INDICES
NASDAQ: new falls are announced
DAX - finally 12,400 points

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Wednesday and Thursday we had US headline data releases - Consumer and Producer Inflation 8.5% Core Inflation also stopp...
12/08/2022

Wednesday and Thursday we had US headline data releases - Consumer and Producer Inflation 8.5% Core Inflation also stopped growing 5.9% YoY
Our bond yields are falling, prices are rising, and the market is beginning to predict declines in inflation.
10 years - 5.36
5 years - 5,755
Demand for government securities is recovering.

FOREX
EURUSD- We leave behind the peak of the dollar, it will probably start to rise, the ECB will continue to raise rates and the FED will slow down. So far, technically, the "war" downtrend has led to a parity test. At the moment a slight upward correction, they are struggling with the first major support 1.0350, significant lows for 5 years. The attacks on parity are behind us and it seems that they will not happen again.
USDJPY- We will end the year lower.
EURCHF- multi-year minimum tests, have not been this low for many years. The eurozone may have a problem with the energy crisis

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During the holiday period, volatility has decreased slightly. It may not rise much today due to the US afternoon inflati...
11/08/2022

During the holiday period, volatility has decreased slightly. It may not rise much today due to the US afternoon inflation report (expect CPI to fall and yoy to rise). Expectations of a rise in interest rates in the US increased.
Inflation in the US - 8.5%
The lower readings allowed the dollar to weaken.
Wall Street, on the other hand, was winning.
Bond yields fell temporarily to go back and offset the drop.

Today 14:30
PPI in the US - forecast 10.4%

OIL – slightly lower after stocks, above support above $90
Weak inflation eases pressure on economic activity, and oil inventories have risen recently, which may slow oil demand. Weak factory activity in China and falling PMI also indicate a reduction in oil demand.

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During the holiday period, volatility has decreased slightly. It may not rise much today due to the US afternoon inflati...
10/08/2022

During the holiday period, volatility has decreased slightly. It may not rise much today due to the US afternoon inflation report (expect CPI to fall and yoy to rise). Expectations of a rise in interest rates in the US increased.
The increases in Wall Street will translate into a good mood in Europe. The energy crisis has receded into the background.
FOREX
EURUSD – Still consolidating between 1.01 and 1.0270, breaking resistance will see it rally to 1.0370;
STOCK INDICES
S&P500 – Under significant resistance set by recent highs and lows, today's test of whether indices can rise;
NASDAQ – Drop below, we are around 50% Fibonacci retracement;
Russell2000 - above resistance;
Dax: we fall from the resistance of 13,600 points.
COMMODITIES
Brent – Currently below $97, downside scenario will prevail;

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The financial market has entered the holiday season a bit, the beginning of August is not very interesting, it does not ...
09/08/2022

The financial market has entered the holiday season a bit, the beginning of August is not very interesting, it does not evoke important emotions, the energy crisis has calmed down, and people want to rest.

Tomorrow 14:30 inflation data
Friday's NFPs surprised in favor of the dollar
Today the macro calendar is quite poor, except for Hungarian inflation which fell to 13.7
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14:30 US labor market report: the most important data14:30 information for the Canadian labor marketAll indicators in th...
05/08/2022

14:30 US labor market report: the most important data
14:30 information for the Canadian labor market
All indicators in the US, such as unemployment, average salary, number of benefits, and inflation do not indicate a slowdown in the economy.
Yesterday the Bank of England raised its interest rates by 50 pp

FOREX
EURUSD Consolidation, Despite Big Data, Directionless Yesterday (Data In Line With Consensus), Pair Possible If Today's Data Good
GBPUSD closed recommendation for entry-level after data with interest rates, awaiting data currently

COMMDITIES
OILBRNT breaking major support at $96, further drops to $70 possible

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9:55 PMI Financial Services Index16:30 US crude stock change10-year yield lower than 2-year bond: highest investment sin...
03/08/2022

9:55 PMI Financial Services Index
16:30 US crude stock change
10-year yield lower than 2-year bond: highest investment since 2000, recession warning.

STOCK INDICES
US500 – Rise from June low through 29 sessions, strongest since spring 2020, short-term exit from the bearish channel since early January, upper bound of this channel as support, 4,175pts strong breaking strength, support at 3,920 points

COMMODITIES
NATGAS - End of increases, possible correction

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The ISM for the US industry was published yesterday: 52.8 points, worse than the previous one, previously 53. The wage p...
02/08/2022

The ISM for the US industry was published yesterday: 52.8 points, worse than the previous one, previously 53. The wage price index, is down 60 points, and inflation is slowly rising. Employment index 49.9 points.
For today no data is expected from the eurozone, we will know the Swiss PMI. At 22:00 CET the 40-week fuel stock change will be published.
The most important data of the week will come on Friday with the US NFP - Until then there should be no major volatility in EURUSD.
FOREX
EURUSD – unchanged from yesterday, there was an attempt to break out of resistance but no permanent advance, tonight attempted to break above 1.0270-90. Now it goes towards 1.0240
AUDUSD - RBA did not surprise, added what was expected, 1.85% rate hike, inflation 6.1 y/y/weakening, market priced in today's hike, ends 14 Jul bullish correction
GBPUSD - BOE Decision Thursday, and LONG recommendation from Jul 25 Holds, 2 Figure Earnings, Stop Loss Trailed to Entry Level. The falls are explained by the approach to the technical resistance zone established by the summit in mid-June. An unlikely positive surprise from the BOE

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On Friday we had information on the spending of Americans. They noted an increase. Long-term inflation expectations incr...
01/08/2022

On Friday we had information on the spending of Americans. They noted an increase. Long-term inflation expectations increased slightly. Labor costs also go up. On Friday at 14:30, the EURUSD reacted. A pretty good month is behind us if we talk about the US stock market.
The key data this week from the US is the labor market data.

FOREX
EURUSD - Still Consolidating, Breakout Bottom Was Only Temporary; We have been consolidating for almost 2 weeks, and we are waiting for an advance or a return to parity. This week key macroeconomic data will be released and it is possible that it will affect the exchange rate
COMMODITIES
GOLD - strong bounce; nearest resistance is $1,780
STOCK INDICES
DAX: Good Index Period, Short-Term Uptrend

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Relief rally in the markets. The second part of yesterday saw increases and a weakening of the dollar. Perhaps investors...
29/07/2022

Relief rally in the markets. The second part of yesterday saw increases and a weakening of the dollar. Perhaps investors have concluded that all the bad news is already priced in.

FOREX
USD INDEX: First support fell
EURUSD – Weakening, probably just a correction, 1.0350 is yet to come, the key is 10y bonds testing their resistance
GBPUSD - target realized, may gain up to 1.24, short-term upside
USDJPY – I didn't think our scenario would play out so fast, -500 pips in 2 days
BTCUSD: Two very successful days on BTCUSD, maybe even $30,000
ETHUSD: Rebound from the guideline, a possible continuation of growth to $2,200

COMMODITIES
SILVER - rebound, SILVER +4% yesterday, a possible continuation of gains
GOLD – Last 3 days are growth candles (1,780 to target)

STOCK INDICES
DAX – trouble in misery, DAX is awaiting judgment
DOW JONES, CAC40 – SELL

STOCKS
PKN ORLEN - takes over PGNiG, Orlen shares will be issued to PGNiG shareholders in the amount of 9.25% of Orlen shares for each PGNiG share.
APPLE - The results turned out to be better in terms of revenue and profit. It is going up +3%, it has a chance to go down from 165 USD
AMAZON - recorded loss, SHORTS.

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