12/08/2026
๐๐ก๐๐ง๐ข ๐๐๐ข๐ซ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฆ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ (๐๐๐): focusing on its operational growth, milk production trends, and expected upside over the next 3 years.
> Ghani Dairies Limited is currently on a robust operational and financial growth trajectory.
Lets see the potential of this business in detail:
How GDL makes money:
GDL is a corporate dairy farm who supplies raw milk to the leading dairy processors (i.e. Nestle Pakistan, Fauji Foods & IRC Dairy Products) in Pakistan through recurring arrangement, ensuring quality, consistency, and reliability of supply.
Their business thrives on dual profit stream:
i. cash profit (from sale of raw milk)
ii. herd expansion through breeding of cows (non cash)
In accordance with the requirements of IAS 41 (Agriculture), the Company also recognizes fair value gains on initial recognition
of milk at the time of milking and on changes in the fair value of dairy livestock.
This standard has created a confusion among investors on how to treat and analyze FV gain of milk/change in FV of live stock.
To cater this problem, I have simplified it to the basic factors on which a corporate dairy farm thrives.
1. Herd Expansion (Culling Rate*, Calving Rate, Mortality Rate)
2. Milk Production (Mature Cow Base Growth, Milk production per cow/year)
Culling: a process to remove less efficient or old cows from the herd to sustain milk production at a certain level.
We can estimate the growth of the herd YoY based on realistic estimates, to calculate milk production and PAT using trailing net margins by introducing some margin of safety.
The companyโs strategic focus on herd expansionโbalancing mature cow acquisitions with internal breedingโhas directly translated into YoY improvements in milk production. Over the next 3 years, the compounding effect of a maturing herd, optimized yields, and secured contract revenues positions the company for significant valuation upside and margin expansion.
I have calculated a base case for GDL based on information provided in IPO prospectus, FY2025 financial report and 3Q_2026 financial report as shown below: fig 1
See attached figure for milk production (fig:2), herd expansion estimates based on previous data after applying discount on certain parameters.
Discounts applied:
i. Company explicitly mentioned that their Avg milk prod/cow/day is 34 liters, however I have used 30 l/cow/day,
ii. Net margins (PAT/Revenue from contract with customers) were reported at 24%, however, I have used 20% net margin.
iii. Price increase of 10% per annum is mentioned in IPO prospectus, I have used 7% increase in price per annum.
The discounts applied to these parameters would help to mitigate some of the risks and also include the impact of inefficiency/human misjudgment.
Note: My calculations depict the improvement in milk production due to organic/inorganic (imported heifers) herd expansion and also include the change in FV of live stock.
Looking at the 3-year horizon, Ghani Dairies Limited exhibits strong fundamentals for a valuation re-rating. The expected upside is driven by the following factors
A. Accelerated PAT Growth
B. Contract Revenue Compounding
Key Growth Drivers:
โข Primary driver: Aggressive herd build-out (imports + calves + retention of mature milking cows) translating directly into higher milk output.
โข Secondary supports: Stable calving rate, controlled mortality, and gradual price realization improvement.
Over the next 3 years, the transition of calves into mature cows will catalyze a significant jump in milk output, contract revenue, and ultimately, Profit After Tax.
This operational leverage offers a highly attractive upside potential for the company's market capitalization.
