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22/11/2013

Crude near three-week high on US data;
Heads for 1st weekly gain in two months
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Despite the slight drop seen today, crude oil is trading near the highest price in three weeks after the number of Americans filing for jobless benefits fell sharply while factory activity hit an eight-month high in November, improving the outlook for demand on oil.

Crude oil is poised for the first weekly gain in almost two months due to signs of continued economic strength in the United States, the world’s biggest oil consumer, and indications that a deal to end Tehran`s nuclear program could a long time.

Iran and six major powers, who are meeting in Geneva from Nov. 20-22, have made some progress towards an interim deal, but an imminent breakthrough in the 3-day talks that end today seems less possible as the US is committed to add tougher sanctions on Tehran.

Meanwhile, the unrest in Iraq added to uncertainty over supply, as the country suffers its worst wave of violence in five years, however, crude prices are expected to drop next week as US stockpiles may increase probably due to a surge in production.

22/11/2013

ECB's Draghi says situation in Euro Area has improved

22/11/2013

Germany November Ifo Business Climate (02:00 PST)

The Ifo indices had stalled a bit in the past couple of months and the consensus expected a slightly positive reading for November. However, Thursday’s strong Market purchasing manager indices changed the setup, and the real-time expectations are now higher for the Ifo as well. With the background explained under the GDP entry, of particular interest will be the sectoral balances: especially construction, but also wholesaling and retailing could be the ones to watch. Any reaction to the numbers could be limited, as the European Central Bank’s president Mario Draghi will start speaking at 02:30 PST.

22/11/2013

Eurogroup meeting: The European finance ministers (Eurogroup) meet today and will discuss the European Commission’s November 13 opinions on member states’ draft budgets in light of the commission’s country-specific recommendations from last June. The member states will finalise the budgets before the year is over based on the discussions at this meeting, so some sort of fiscal surprise from the get-together is possible.

22/11/2013

GOLD HAS SUPPORT 1234, HOLD BELOW THEN 1226-1212 POSSIBLE
AND HAS RESISTANCE 1252, HOLD ABOVE THEN 1260-1274 POSSIBLE

22/11/2013

Japanese yen record its deepest weekly drop in four months against the dollar, where the USD/JPY pair inclined to its highest in four months at 101.34 near its resistance level of 101.50.

Moreover, the main reason behind the significant decline in the yen against the dollar is the difference in yield between U.S. and Japanese Treasuries, which prompted many investments to get out of Japan to the United States, after the recent attempts from the Federal Bank to add stimulus.

At the same time, BOJ decided during its last board meeting this week to keep its monetary stance unchanged and asset purchase program to reach the 2% inflation target, where BOJ’s governor Kuroda noted that the bank will take necessary steps to support Japan.

From another side, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Governor, Glenn Stevens, noted that current failure in driving down the Austrian dollar by the RBA and unconvinced about its effectiveness, Stevens still up to intervene in Aussie.

AUD/USD pair traded near its lowest in two months at 0.9197 near its lowest closing for the fifth straight session.

22/11/2013

RBA still opened for Aussie intervention
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The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Governor, Glenn Stevens, noted that current failure in driving down the Austrian dollar by the RBA and unconvinced about its effectiveness, Stevens still up to intervene in Aussie.

Moreover, renewed strength in Australian dollar hurts the nation’s economy especially exports, where the current stage notice a slump in mining sector and weak labor market, which negatively affected on Australian economy and its growth pace.

At the same time, the International Monetary Fund noted earlier that Aussie is overvalued by 10%, where current low interest rate supported Australian economy but still suffer from some sectors’ weakness.

From another side, the bank sees that gross domestic product will keep near 2.5% during the next year, while the bank noted that real estate investments rebound may expand, where setting the interest rates with cut possibility supports the nation’s economy.

RBA still keep the nation’s benchmark interest rate steady at 2.50% which is expected to last for a while, where current global environment, especially in China, may force policymakers to cut rates.