Chase Securities Pakistan Private Limited

30/04/2026

Leverage Position | April 30th, 2026 | Chase Securities

30/04/2026

What You Should Know Today
April 30, 2026

Key Headlines

1. PM points to heavy weekly oil bill.

2. Hydropower generation reaches 6,000MW: PD.

3. EIB eyes shares in Reko Diq project.

Market Outlook: Oil Surge Keeps PSX Range-Bound Amid Earnings Season

Rising international oil prices continued to dominate investor sentiment as the ongoing US-Iran deadlock kept supply constrained, pushing Pakistan’s weekly oil import bill to around $800 million, as highlighted by the Prime Minister. The surge in crude prices poses a dual challenge for the economy, exerting pressure on the current account and fueling inflationary expectations. Policymakers may be compelled to adopt short-term austerity measures to manage the external account. That said, some optimism has emerged on the geopolitical front, with efforts underway to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and indications that the US may scale back its military presence in the region, suggesting a gradual de-escalation.

On the corporate front, investor focus remained firmly on earnings announcements. The market witnessed a mixed bag of results, with certain companies delivering positive surprises while others fell short of expectations. Key developments included Cherat Cement’s announcement of a share buyback and Millat Tractors’ stock split, both of which garnered investor interest. Meanwhile, companies within the Attock group and the broader oil value chain posted encouraging earnings, although concerns lingered over declining recovery ratios. With more results due today, the earnings season is expected to largely conclude, keeping stock-specific activity elevated.

With today marking the last trading session of the week and the month, the market is likely to remain range-bound, primarily tracking corporate result announcements and stock-specific triggers. However, the overarching direction will continue to be influenced by global oil price movements. In the absence of a meaningful decline in oil prices, upside potential may remain capped, and the index is expected to trade sideways in the near term.

Top Picks

OGDC, PPL, PSO, UBL, MEBL, FFC, FATIMA, CHCC, MLCF, DGKC, SAZEW, GHNI, ATLH, INDU, ISL, ASL, PSX, PTC, GCIL, PAKT, AGIL, GGL, CEPB, SRVI, PTL

Important Board Meetings Today

NETSOL, NML, WAVESAPP, SERT, AVN, ATLH, HUMNL, PABC, PIAHCLA

Corporate Briefing

PTC, AGTL, PKGS, HINOON

Start of Ex-Price today

Sazgar Engineering Works Limited - 200%(i)
ITANZ TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED - 10%(i)
Systems Limited - 100%(i)
Allied Bank Limited - 40%(i)

Last Day of Entitlement

EFU Life Assurance Limited - 15%(i)
EFU General Insurance Limited - 15%(i)
Bank AL Habib Limited - 35%(i)
Engro Fertilizers Limited - 20%(i)
Diamond Industries Limited - 10%(i)

Other Key Events Today

FX Reserves

Results to be Announced at Market Open

N/A

28/04/2026

Leverage Position | April 28th, 2026 | Chase Securities

28/04/2026

What You Should Know Today
April 28, 2026

Key Headlines

1. SBP hikes policy rate by 100bps to 11.5pc.

2. UK, Canada and Egypt FMs discuss regional situation, stress talks and diplomacy in calls with Dar.

3. Pakistan, China agree to deepen cooperation in desalination, agriculture, tea production sectors.

Market Outlook: 100bps Hike: Stability First, Markets to Adjust

The State Bank of Pakistan’s latest decision to raise the policy rate by 100bps to 11.5% underscores a clear shift toward a proactive monetary stance, prioritizing macroeconomic stability over short-term growth concerns. The central bank has signaled that inflation is likely to remain above target in the near term, justifying early action rather than delayed tightening. Policymakers appear focused on safeguarding the economic gains achieved so far, with the view that acting sooner reduces the risk of more aggressive measures later. Encouragingly, the SBP governor also indicated that foreign exchange reserves are projected to reach USD 18 billion by June, providing an added cushion to external account stability.

From a corporate perspective, the rate hike is unlikely to materially disrupt earnings momentum. Large-cap corporates are expected to absorb the marginal increase in borrowing costs, especially given relatively strong balance sheets and pricing power in key sectors. In fact, segments of the market may benefit from the current policy stance—particularly the energy chain, where companies with strong cash positions stand to gain from higher interest income, alongside select banks and other cash-rich entities. This reinforces the need for investors to stay focused on underlying profitability rather than short-term policy noise.

The KSE-100 Index may witness initial pressure in today’s session as investors react to the rate hike; however, any dip should be viewed as an opportunity to accumulate fundamentally strong stocks at attractive valuations. With macro stability measures in place and reserve buildup providing confidence, the broader market direction remains intact. Investors are advised to selectively build positions in cash-generative sectors, particularly energy and banking, while keeping a close eye on earnings resilience in a higher interest rate environment.

Top Picks

OGDC, PPL, PSO, UBL, MEBL, FFC, FATIMA, CHCC, MLCF, DGKC, SAZEW, GHNI, ATLH, INDU, ISL, ASL, PSX, PTC, GCIL, PAKT, AGIL, GGL, CEPB, SRVI, PTL

Important Board Meetings Today

JVDC, MTL, JSBL, TOMCL, PAKT, CHCC, NATF, GCWL, GCIL, GGL, NPL, NCPL, ASL, IBLHL, TGL, CEPB

Corporate Briefing

ENGROH, HBL, HALEON

Start of Ex-Price today

Habib Bank Limited - 60%(i)

Last Day of Entitlement

N/A

Other Key Events Today

N/A

Results to be Announced at Market Open

N/A

28/04/2026

PSX Closing Bell | 27th April 2026 | Chase Securities

27/04/2026

Foreign & Local Portfolio Investment | Apr 27th, 2026 | Chase Securities

27/04/2026

INDU Result Review | Chase Securities

27/04/2026

Leverage Position | April 27th, 2026 | Chase Securities

27/04/2026

Chase Weekly Technical Analysis Report | 27th April2026 | Chase Securities

27/04/2026

What You Should Know Today
April 27, 2026

Key Headlines

1. IMF board to meet in May for next $1.2bn disbursement.

2. Govt issues new order to facilitate transit trade to Iran.

3. Iran war jitters to influence policy rate decision.

Market Outlook: Backchannel Talks Calm Nerves; All Eyes on Rate Decision

The geopolitical backdrop remains fluid as regional diplomacy takes center stage. Iran’s foreign minister concluded his visit to Pakistan without engaging with the US delegation, while Washington also cancelled its negotiating team’s trip. Subsequent engagements by Iran with Oman and Russia, alongside outreach to other regional players, suggest that backchannel diplomacy—reportedly facilitated by Pakistan—is actively underway. Notably, the absence of aggressive rhetoric from the US in recent days reinforces expectations of quiet negotiations. However, the unresolved situation around the Strait of Hormuz continues to be a key overhang, with oil prices staying elevated and posing risks to global and domestic inflation trajectories.

On the domestic front, all eyes are on today’s monetary policy announcement, where market participants remain divided on the interest rate outlook. With oil prices holding firm, inflation expectations are tilting upwards, with a likelihood of double-digit readings in the coming months. The Monetary Policy Committee faces a delicate balancing act—either act preemptively with a rate hike or wait for further clarity in the next cycle. A 100bps increase appears largely priced in; therefore, any decision to keep rates unchanged could trigger a positive market reaction in the short term, while a hike may be taken in stride given current expectations.

Despite prevailing uncertainties, the market continues to exhibit resilience, finding support at lower levels. Investor focus has gradually shifted toward stock-specific triggers and ongoing corporate result announcements, which are providing selective opportunities. We expect the index to maintain its base-building trend, with dips likely to attract buying interest. Any meaningful de-escalation on the geopolitical front—particularly easing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and a resultant decline in oil prices—could act as a strong catalyst for a sharp market recovery.

Top Picks

OGDC, PPL, PSO, UBL, MEBL, FFC, FATIMA, CHCC, MLCF, DGKC, SAZEW, GHNI, ATLH, INDU, ISL, ASL, PSX, PTC, GCIL, PAKT, AGIL, GGL, CEPB, SRVI, PTL

Important Board Meetings Today

GLAXO, ICL, KAPCO, PSX, ABOT, GWLC, BOP, AKBL, LCI, ENGROH, FFL, PNSC, HTL

Corporate Briefing

N/A

Start of Ex-Price today

Rafhan Maize Products Company - 940%(i)

Last Day of Entitlement

Habib Bank Limited - 60%(i)

Other Key Events Today

MP Meeting

Results to be Announced at Market Open

N/A

27/04/2026

In the latest episode of Stock Watch, powered by Chase Securities on Nukta Business, Impact of Oil Prices on Economy and Inflation, Interest Rate and Market Outlook is discussed by Mr. Arsalan Soomro.

Sharjeel Ahmed, Technical Analyst and Equity Trader at Chase Securities, shares insights in the Candle Talk segment, highlighting the outlook for PSO, GHNI and DGKC

Watch here

125 likes, 17 comments. "Can an Interest Rate Hike Stop the PSX Rally? | Stock Watch | Nukta Business"

24/04/2026

PSX Closing Bell | Apr 24th, 2026 | Chase Securities